analysis Same-Domain Sales Prices - Up or Down?

[Bob Hawkes]

I read the NameBio daily report every day (as I am sure most of you do too!), and it seemed to me that when I look at sales with history that there were usually more decrease in price than increase. Sometimes perceptions are deceptive, though, and I decided to actually run the numbers. More generally, I sought to answer the question: When the same domain name sells a second time, are odds good that it goes up or down in price? I call this same-domain price because it is analogous to same-store sales data in retail analysis.

I could not figure out an automatic way to check this on NameBio (if you know how, post it here!), so had to go through the daily reports by hand, so I only did it for the last 61 days, but here is what I found:

• This study analyzed 13,165 NameBio reported domain sales in all extensions over the 61 day period from May 24 to July 23, 2018.
• Over the reporting period, on average there were 216 domain sales per day recorded in NameBio.
• Of the 13, 165 domain sales in the 61 days, 288 had a history of a previous sale, or 2.2%.
• Of these 288 domain sales with history, 104 showed an increase and 184 a decrease in price.
• For the 61 days in the study, 43 days were net down (more sales with decrease), 10 were net up (more sales with an increase), and 8 days had equal numbers of increase/decrease.
• There may be a systematic bias that makes domain names that are available for sale again more likely to sell at lower prices.

About the last point of the possible systematic bias. I think a domain name is more likely to resell if it is no longer very relevant (e.g. technology or trends change), and therefore those that go up for sale are more likely to decrease in price, which is what I found.

Now if you just look at ALL domain sales here is the average price data (up to today):

• 2018 (up to July 23) $1405
• 2017 $1464
• 2016 $1350
• past 5 years $1778
• all time $2665

To me this seems to say domains sold for more back in the 'good old days' (I missed those days, and I know some of you miss them!), but prices have been pretty constant overall in the last few years (I know, some extensions up some down). But is the drop from way back because the quality of the domains sold has decreased as many more domains for sale now? That is why I did the same-domain analysis above.

Enjoy! I have covered the key points in this post, but if you want to read the complete post is on my blog here (it also has the fine print about not depending on this for domain investment advice, eduction only, blah blah blah):
https://agreatnameforyou.blogspot.com/2018/07/same-domain-sales-analysis.html

Really welcome comments on this one! Also if there are other analyses like this, please post the link to them. I frequently reinvent wheels!

Thanks,
Bob