Rich Schwartz Elaborates on His Tweet Regarding End-User Demand For Domains in 2017:
"User demand is getting very close to peaking all over the Internet. Growth can not continue as it has. Can Facebook add more users now then early on? I doubt it. At some point there will be a wall and I think that point is quickly approaching. The domain game is evolving. Brandable domains are in vogue right now. But the brandable domain game is a very hard game to play and win. Talk about a lottery ticket.
You have to figure that 100% of educated people with money are online today in some form. There are probably 2-3 billion people not online and may never be. And even if they are, they have NO buying power. But in my eyes, we have hit critical mass.
The net has hit critical mass. Twitter has hit a home run in 2016 and still losing money. Snapchat may be another Twitter. I got to hand it to them. They made billions with nothing but eyeballs.
Now with this said I do see a very strong and positive wave coming later this year and into 2018 and maybe a bit longer. But overall, I think we are at a peak that could expose itself at anytime.
My horizon is not days. I look in terms of years. Just like gTLD’s. I knew in about 3 years that would be when the rubber met the road. Over 90% of all gTLD’s sold are being registered by domainers and most of them are parked. They are losing steam and losing steam fast. When you look deeper you will see that the registries themselves are holding millions of these names just to pump up the numbers. So between registries and domainers, they have all been smothered. Normal everyday people have never even heard of these extensions and may never. Go ask folks. Keep asking. NEVER be scared to find out the reality as many do.
Amazon may keep growing but Facebook will find it more difficult. Amazon has a LOT of business still to take from Main Street. Sears is on Death Watch. Target may not be far behind. Much of that business is being taken by Amazon and there is NO CHANCE these stores will ever recover. They will have mass closing just to survive. It’s coming.
So domains are an important part of the Internet. Growth can not be expected to continue at the same rate as in the past. Look at all the crap that is being registered. Those are not domains, those are future drops looking for a sucker dumber than the original buyer.
The domain market is largely incestuous. The gTLD market is almost 100% incestuous. Meaning most business is domainer to domainer and not domainer to end user. Turnover on a portfolio is generally less than 1% a year. That means you will die before you sell all your domains. At some point liquidity inside can dry up.
Now domains are not going anywhere. But to not see the coming evolution can be costly. Nothing can grow at the same huge rates as early on and that includes domains. Lastly, just look at all the stalled and decreasing registrations for the majority of gTLD’s. After 3 years this is when they should be HOT and they are NOT!
End users have a need and demand for ONE domain at a time if that. Talk to end users. Ask them questions. Ask them about domains. I do that ALL the time. Whenever I travel and wherever I go. EVERY SINGLE DAY! And most will say “I already have a domain name that I registered at Godaddy.” They have more interest in asking me if Godaddy is good than about their domain name.
They all have a .com or a .net. or a cctld. PERIOD!
As I have stated, domainers are so concerned about their needs, wants and desires that they are BLIND to the needs wants and desires of the end users.They only see things thru THEIR eyes. Fpr over 20 years I have been targeting end users whether at TRAFFIC or on TWITTER. My goal is to have an end user have an aha moment. NOT EASY!
I know many great domainers with fantastic portfolios that are having a hard time paying the mortgage and making ends meet. So if these guys are struggling, what about all the Pigeon Shit farmers? They just quietly disappear.
I remain bullish on meaningful and great domains to a point. I remain bullish that those with inferior extensions want to have success and be able to afford a great .com domain. .Com is an upgrade and that won’t be changing.
If I had porno.com in 1000 other extensions, the total value of those other extensions would not equal one .com.
There is no question that the rate of growth of domain registrations is slowing down. It may even decrease at some point and that would not surprise me. If it surprises you, then the point of business is not be surprised but be PREPARED!"
Source: The Domains / @equity78
