advice NOW is the time to buy 6Ns!!!

[bazabizo]

Before you start whining take the time to read this!

I used to be a forex trader/analyst for a couple of years in my career. Best and most effective strategy to understand a market according to the Human psychology of supply and deman, is Elliott Waves. In EV, there is a trend and there are corrections to this trend. To simplify, prices go, then there is some profit taking which makes the price go down a little bit. This is applicable to everything in life!

According to the 90 days price chart I analyzed at Chaomi, we are at the lowest price tag for 6Ns, if we went 20% lower we tank in there for a long time. The reason I see this not happening is that supply has softened in the aftermarket. People stopped putting no reserve auctions (almost), so investors are keeping their domains till prices go up. The upside potential is actually 50-60% above the current price which marks a 6N chip at $300 at least.

To sum it up, the risk is 20% down and the reward/potential is 50-60% above. this is 1:2.5-3, which is a fantastic risk-reward ratio!

Chinese investors have disengaged from auctions lately (almost) just to make sure the prices soften a bit, to be able to buy in bulk when the market is down like nowadays! This explains why you are spammed with emails about your numerics especially these days. A buyer would approach you and would be interested in a bulk buy. Guess what, you get scared of the market's volatility and let go of the names, then the market rises and you cry out!

You are an investor, you can make right and wrong decisions, thats life. Whats not right is that you do 2 decisions! You either HOLD or let go of the names! doing a mix is stupid unless you are a strict flipper; and this is not the right time at all to flip!

These are my 2 cents, and this is how I do domaining. Not a high end one, but I am surviving. Wish you all, all the best Good Luck!

 

[bazabizo]

Recent price action, show more traction towards Chip 6Ns that anything else. I must admit as well, that non-chips are realizing lower prices than before and more portfolios are being offered here on NP than ever before!
The reasons behind this are 2 things :
1) People who own non-chips are mainly non-highend domainers, so they registered these domains for a quick profit, once the prices started to fall a bit, they chickened and started to liquidate (I was always like this one day), its not bad to fear when investing. Just make sure you dont let fear control your decisions! Sell the news buy the facts! The facts are if chips started to rise, then non-chips will as well. Just give it sometime, chips are not endless!
2) A lot of non-chips are mainly hand registered names, vs chips, which were flipped by hand registrars late 2015! For a hand reg, if you flip a name for 25 or 40 its not a big deal, you are still making 200% profit.

HOLDING HOLDING HOLDING!

This is what investors are doing! Some of them are actually falsifying the market in both directions to control bulk buys!

They killed the low level domain prices recently on Chaomi, which led to a lot of liquidation, so they bought at least 10K names in the past 2 weeks for dirt cheap! Then in parallel, they started bidding higher for pattern chips! Why overpaying for pattern chips? Coz basically, if he overpays for 5 of these, while he owns 100 of them. He is basically lifting the entire market norm to 20-30% more, which affects his 100 owned names! Thats 30% ROI for 100K+ investment just at the cost of a few thousand dollars overpaid!

The above strategy is even sometimes arranged in groups! I've seen this by Chinese investors when I was stamps dealer (early 2002-2012). They decided to control the market price of a certain chinese stamp that had 50,000 copies, this stamp went from $50 each upto 1,800 each and flattened at that point! Guess who caused that rise? Its 2 Chinese stamps dealers in China that owned 5,000 copies each of that stamp! They overpaid for 200 stamps, but in return made their owned copies worth 9M dollars instead of 250K!

With Numerics its 900,000 names so the action will take a bit longer but not 20 times longer, as the number of domain investors is much bigger than stamp dealers in china, I believe this will end within 3-6 months and 6N will normalize at a certain range and then rise slowly/organically. I predict that prices by then will 2x the prices now! I am just a normal investor and dont forsee the future, but just remember, what you will drop or let go for $20 will be held forever by a chinese investor and wont see daylight for reseller prices again!

Patience is a virtue! Learn it, practice it, live it, and let the profit go to the bank! Good luck everyone! sorry for the long post

 

[TERADOMAIN]

Hi,

Let me share what I have experienced in last couple of days.

Yesterday someone bought 200263.com from one of my sales thread for $59 BIN. Straight message received in PM that Name is SOLD. I was surprised little because normally someone always try to negotiate little but no discussion and post SOLD via PM. It is small transaction. I pushed name right away and name moved to someone in China. I found out when I receive email from China Godaddy. I bought name long time ago for $20-$25.

It was small transaction but sign looks promising for 6N.com. Right now price for 6N.com reached such level where some Chinese people thinks it is good price to grab behind the door. I am just assuming. I thought let me share this.

Quality is quality end of day so if anyone holding premium pattern has nothing to worry even in wildest dream. Price movement is seen in non pattern 6N.com which was expected. Friends do not sell premium pattern 6N.com for cheap. Stick to your price. You may get it sooner or later.

Risk involved in anything. I am just sharing what I have experienced with good intention. It does or does not applicable to someone. 90%-95% of my 6N.com are premium stuff. So I am not worried at all about roller coaster ride from 1800 CNY to 1250 CNY (Current price) because that is mostly ride for non pattern 6N.com . Price for premium patterned still good. Please take your decision carefully because everyone has different situation which may and may not applicable to all.

Thanks

 

[DomainVP]

It's uncanny how similar we think on this.
I also think the coming months could see a large rise in prices, probably to new highs and then a big correction in 6n chip prices some time from the summer onwards.

The frustrating thing is many investors refuse to price the domains at current market values so I can't buy in bulk lol. Everyone seems confident prices are on the way up again soon

People forget, or don't know, that 6n was almost laughable last year - and the only thing that propped them up was "Chinese demand."

I bought a few aabcaa (112511) 6n's at drop catch fee and sold them for high $xxx - and was extremely fine by that.

Literally the day after I sold my last one the market started to plummet.

Now that the "Chinese demand" is fleeting, and the market starting to form normalized prices, anyone that bought at that peak will be holding a long time to get that value back.

Just my opinion. I expect the next 2 months to be the last chance to get one good flip in before left holding the bag.

 

[vickyhunter]

Now is the time to buy? Interesting how this comes less than 24 hours after you launched your own sales thread selling 6N

If you notice, he is talking about 6N Chips. I just saw his thread, he is not selling any Chips. All with 4 and 0. Maybe, he is getting rid of these and investing on Chips? Dunno.

 

[bazabizo]

Now is the time to buy? Interesting how this comes less than 24 hours after you launched your own sales thread selling 6N

From an ethical perspective its much better if you double check before you just post this!
I have more than 150 6Ns, and selling the low end of it, and the thread is only referring to Chips!
I wrote ALL THIS to promote 80 domains for a potential 5K listed price sale? My total investment in domains is tens of multiples of this. I would waste 20 minutes writing the above so that 1 or 2 people get tempted to buy a $79 domain?
I wont say my personal opinion of your reply! I will keep it open for people to judge!

 

[bazabizo]

@bazabizo Can you clarify if you wrote this post is about all 6N or just chips? Thanks

Chips mostly as they are of larger value and easier to track. Others will definitely get affected accordingly, but lets say its only chips as people think Im saying so just because Im selling some

 

[DomainVP]

The time to buy is now-ish. I say in another 10 days will be a nice sweet spot for bulk buying of 6n's. These will go back up in price for a few months as we enter the summer... then buyer beware... because there could be a massive sell off coming shortly (30-60 days) after that. Based on the human psychology of supply and demand AND bubble behavior within the Chinese market.

Chinese investors have disengaged from auctions lately (almost) just to make sure the prices soften a bit, to be able to buy in bulk when the market is down like nowadays!

This is somewhat the case. The prices are being softened in anticipation of a rise, which will happen, but the underlying actual value of 6N is pulling it down in similar fashion to 4L 'chips'.

Ride the peaks and valleys if you want to if you are making bulk purchases and sales, just be aware of what is likely ahead when the ball drops.

 

[joro001]

The time to buy is now-ish. I say in another 10 days will be a nice sweet spot for bulk buying of 6n's. These will go back up in price for a few months as we enter the summer... then buyer beware... because there could be a massive sell off coming shortly (30-60 days) after that. Based on the human psychology of supply and demand AND bubble behavior within the Chinese market.



This is somewhat the case. The prices are being softened in anticipation of a rise, which will happen, but the underlying actual value of 6N is pulling it down in similar fashion to 4L 'chips'.

Ride the peaks and valleys if you want to if you are making bulk purchases and sales, just be aware of what is likely ahead when the ball drops.

It's uncanny how similar we think on this.
I also think the coming months could see a large rise in prices, probably to new highs and then a big correction in 6n chip prices some time from the summer onwards.

The frustrating thing is many investors refuse to price the domains at current market values so I can't buy in bulk lol. Everyone seems confident prices are on the way up again soon

 

[Ab Peter]

4-5-6N.com domains is waste of money. Same with most of 4L and all 5L.com's.

Guess, 1688.com is a waste of money and resources same with FIFA.com and UEFA.com.

to say, some 4l and 5l is thinkable but to say 4N.com,

 

[martworld]

4-5-6N.com domains is waste of money. Same with most of 4L and all 5L.com's.

As long as I earn profits from them, I would love to waste money on 4-5-6N.com's

 

[DnEbook]

4-5-6N.com domains is waste of money. Same with most of 4L and all 5L.com's.

Hard to find many people who would agree with you on that, some big bucks made over the last year

 

[martworld]

Hard to find many people who would agree with you on that, some big bucks made over the last year

Actually, he suffered losses by buying high and selling low. And hence, this statement.

 

[namethreads.com]

I might increase my prices soon.

 

[joro001]

Before you start whining take the time to read this!

I used to be a forex trader/analyst for a couple of years in my career. Best and most effective strategy to understand a market according to the Human psychology of supply and deman, is Elliott Waves. In EV, there is a trend and there are corrections to this trend. To simplify, prices go, then there is some profit taking which makes the price go down a little bit. This is applicable to everything in life!

According to the 90 days price chart I analyzed at Chaomi, we are at the lowest price tag for 6Ns, if we went 20% lower we tank in there for a long time. The reason I see this not happening is that supply has softened in the aftermarket. People stopped putting no reserve auctions (almost), so investors are keeping their domains till prices go up. The upside potential is actually 50-60% above the current price which marks a 6N chip at $300 at least.

To sum it up, the risk is 20% down and the reward/potential is 50-60% above. this is 1:2.5-3, which is a fantastic risk-reward ratio!

Chinese investors have disengaged from auctions lately (almost) just to make sure the prices soften a bit, to be able to buy in bulk when the market is down like nowadays! This explains why you are spammed with emails about your numerics especially these days. A buyer would approach you and would be interested in a bulk buy. Guess what, you get scared of the market's volatility and let go of the names, then the market rises and you cry out!

You are an investor, you can make right and wrong decisions, thats life. Whats not right is that you do 2 decisions! You either HOLD or let go of the names! doing a mix is stupid unless you are a strict flipper; and this is not the right time at all to flip!

These are my 2 cents, and this is how I do domaining. Not a high end one, but I am surviving. Wish you all, all the best Good Luck!

I agree with your bottom line.
The problem is no one wants to sell me their premium 6n.com chips at fair prices as of today's market, they keep quoting prices from a month+ ago, so i'm stuck as a buyer to buy in bulk.

Great post!

 

[dncafe]

Now is the time to buy? Interesting how this comes less than 24 hours after you launched your own sales thread selling 6N

 

[joro001]

People forget, or don't know, that 6n was almost laughable last year - and the only thing that propped them up was "Chinese demand."

I bought a few aabcaa (112511) 6n's at drop catch fee and sold them for high $xxx - and was extremely fine by that.

Literally the day after I sold my last one the market started to plummet.

Now that the "Chinese demand" is fleeting, and the market starting to form normalized prices, anyone that bought at that peak will be holding a long time to get that value back.

Just my opinion. I expect the next 2 months to be the last chance to get one good flip in before left holding the bag.

From the high levels of recent spam i've been getting I think the next wave up is about to start any day now.

I think we actually have around 3 months till around June/end of June time to sell at good prices before I think the market will correct sharply with the quieter summer period + huge renewals coming up from that point in time and thereafter. Again similar time frames to what you're saying.

After that it's anyone's guess what happens IMO.

 

[dordomai]

From the high levels of recent spam i've been getting I think the next wave up is about to start any day now.

I think we actually have around 3 months till around June/end of June time to sell at good prices before I think the market will correct sharply with the quieter summer period + huge renewals coming up from that point in time and thereafter. Again similar time frames to what you're saying.

After that it's anyone's guess what happens IMO.

I am getting spammed more as well. I guess as long there is spam there is hope

 

[martworld]

4L raise up

Are you asking 4L domains to "Raise Up" or the market for 4l's have really raised up?

 

[domainerfella]

I like your analysis and agree with you.

 

[vickyhunter]

Excellent analysis. The same applies to LLLL Chips too.

- V

 

[nicedomains]

@bazabizo Can you clarify if you wrote this post is about all 6N or just chips? Thanks

 

[Domain Galleria]

Could you please upload the chart so that other chart analyst could make their objective contribution to the thread?

 

[bazabizo]

Very glad to see other posts and PMs saying the same. I stopped also bumping my 6N sales thread so that people don't think I'm promoting it through this post!

Premiums will catchup faster than crap I guess! You can still make some money on none chips if you buy them today, but buy ones that have some pattern.

Again I wish we all make a killing on this one but guess what wishes aren't enough! We must plan and think correctly to harvest something at the end of the day

Good Luck

 

[ExeatGH]

that's the analysis .......thanks bro