Thanks for your question on an important topic
@Meadows.
Virtually
every TLD, country code, new extension. legacy alternative and legacy major have no guarantees beyond the ICANN requirements (applying to some TLDs) of giving advance notice (6 months I think) of wholesale price changes.
The exception is .com (and I think .net) where we have a delayed implementation until Jan 2021, but four years of limited 7% per annum increases, and then uncertainty re what the new contract after that will allow. The price caps were removed from .org, .biz, and others during the past year.
Of course Verisign could choose not to implement the full 7% per annum, or I believe the two parties by mutual agreement could, I believe, renegotiate another amendment to the agreement prior to the end of the 6 year period (2 years of no increase, followed by 4 years at 7%). ICANN are projecting dire times for registries, registrars and the domain world due to the pandemic economic upheaval. It is hard to say if that will result in fewer, or more, price increases actually implemented.
The price you paid first year and the price that you see in second year is
not an increase in price. The renewal was always at that price. Some, not all, registries use deep discounting first year as a marketing strategy, with hoping a high enough percentage will stay in second year to make it worthwhile. It is done in the general country code TLDs, like .co, in things like .info and .biz, in many new extensions, and indeed to some degree in the main legacy. Essentially the
specials we see every week on first year registrations are all a form of discounting as a marketing strategy.
Some registrars make the situation worse by tacking on a higher than normal markup, to make up for actually selling at less than their wholesale costs in the first year. Especially in the new extensions,
shop around to make sure you are getting a competitive rate. Use tools like TLD-List and DomComp, but not all sites are on these, so seek even further.
In terms of
end users, any business serious on their name should, in my opinion,
lock it in by at least 5 years, if not
the full 10 years allowed. They are therefore protected from price increases for that period once they have done that. If you think about it, if they are buying a domain name for $$$$ even, surely it makes sense to lock in 10 years for a total cost, even in most new gTLDs, at low $$$ in total for 10 years and then know you are protected.
It is domainers that are most hurt by renewal increases, since in most cases they are not in a position to renew all their domains years in advance. Fortunately competition among registries will limit to some degree increases in new extension.
Bob
PS To show variability in registrar pricing, the renew price on .online according to TLD-List today ranges from $7 to $69 per year! (and I think the registrar you mention, if I did the conversion right, is even higher). So shop around and transfer to a registrar with renewal rates only slightly above their wholesale cost. Even if you exclude certain regions, and want to stick to a big registrar, you can readily save by a factor of 2 what some are asking.