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Myth: There are no good .COMs left to register.

Labeled as analysis in Domain Extensions, started by twiki, Jul 25, 2021

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  1. twiki

    twiki Top Contributor VIP Gold Account

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    You've heard it. In so many forms. "The market is taken, all good names are registered and owned for years. People are migrating en masse to other TLDs. You can't make money anymore with .COM so you have to focus on .xyz, .online or whatnot. Etc etc.

    Nothing could be farther from the truth.

    I've been watching the evolution of the .com TLD over the last few years. My conclusion is that this TLD is far, far from being "spent".

    Yes some TLD's have been rising, like .co and .xyz. Others have been falling, like .info, .biz and I'd also say .net.

    But .COM adoption is still growing.

    What has changed?

    - Many years ago, domain endings like "fy" or "ify" became acceptable. Today, all domains of this type are quickly snatched. And sold.

    - More recently, double vowels are acceptable. Like "crediit" for example. They didn't use to be, at all. I don't yet bet on these but I've seen them selling including in NP reports.

    - Endings like "itizer" or "imizer" were absolutely unacceptable. Not anymore - and I've sold domains with such endings for 4-fig.

    - 3-words and more are becoming more and more acceptable

    - A large number of buyers have been bouncing back from certain nGTLDs to COM again. And most new extensions launched fail to even get more than a few tens of thousands registrations, with very few notable exceptions.

    - A lot of quality/action words are becoming usable, and they didn't use to be in the past. In fact, due to this I can estimate there is still a lot of domains that can be hand regged. The big question is when: So you don't have to renew them too long, or worse, lose money on those unsold.

    - The .com mass of domains is still growing; and the growth is not slowing down, but accelerating. This also supports everything I've said here.

    - Experienced domainers are betting on .com. (see the latest @AbdulBasit.com interview where he discloses the fact that he aims for 95% .coms in portfolio). Betting hard. (I'm also betting on .coms and largely discarding my other TLD's in portfolio which I frequently mentioned in posts.)

    - There are about 500K .com domains in existence (just a very rough number). I've estimated the useful combinations to be in much higher numbers, actually somewhere in the 1.5M - 2M range. These are my numbers but pick yours. Of course there are many more combinations but I'm sticking to most useful words as per my preference. This could get to 10 million if certain combinations or modifications get adopted, that we might not be able to figure out today.

    - Given the fact that it took .COM so many years to get here, I estimate that for the foreseeable future, and at least the next 20 years, the demand will be ever increasing and number of .COMs will grow 3X or 4X from today. And new combinations will become acceptable, perhaps some we don't think of today.

    - Your not so fancy .COMs that you are discarding today? Indeed they aren't worth much right now. Well, if you have the guts and the sharp eye to know which to renew, and renew instead of discarding, few years down the line you might exchange them for a nice amount. (Edit: That could mean the difference between a nice retirement or passive revenue, OR being broke if nothing else comes your way meantime),

    - Prices are always growing. That's good news - renewal prices are hardly growing, in fact less than inflation. So you can say, not only .coms are about the cheapest domains out there but they also get cheaper and cheaper! Even with all the ICANN planned increases over the years.

    ...And so on.

    What is your take on .COM? And how do you see this developing further? Which changes are already happening that I haven't mentioned here?

    Thanks!
     
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2021
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  2. Future Sensors

    Future Sensors 78% of human domainers will be replaced by robots Gold Account

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    Thanks @twiki

    You made some nice points.

    One thing I have to disagree with, and it's about the expected .com renewal prices. It really adds up.

    9ae48e41-f033-4c62-a247-3d1465d4f37c.jpg
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2021
  3. bmugford

    bmugford www.DataCube.com PRO VIP ICA Member ★★★★★★★★★★

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    I am confused by this point. There are around 160 million .COM registrations last time I checked. What is the 500K number?

    Even if useful combinations were 10 million, that number is around 1/16th of the total current registrations.

    Brad
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2021
  4. HotKey

    HotKey Made in Canada VIP

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    My only thing is, with the examples you gave ie. fy, ify, double vowels, itizer etc etc gaining acceptance proves not that there are still good .coms to be registered, but that there are only terrible naming choices left.

    What we are seeing is acts of desperation, and we cannot rule out that eventually Joe Internet will come to his senses.

    Are we defining "good" on sales, or on domains? I think this is a bad approach, if we care above and beyond seeing quality domain usage, which as investors we play a large role in presenting to Joe Internet.

    Otherwise, carry on. We are what we sell.
     
  5. twiki

    twiki Top Contributor VIP Gold Account

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    Sorry I messed up numbers due to being very tired. Past midnight where I live.

    Verisign reported close to 400 million domains ever registered in 2019. I was talking about .COMs but this number stuck in the head. Then I just factored the multiplier in. Sorry about that.

    The point is, however, there's still room for those able to see it. I believe there's a lot of room.
     
  6. twiki

    twiki Top Contributor VIP Gold Account

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    They will double over a decade.

    Trust me, money is already like 10% more worthless since the pandemic started.

    Anyway, I find .com pricing decent still. It only bites if you can't get a decent portfolio where sale price is sufficient sand so is ratio.
     
  7. twiki

    twiki Top Contributor VIP Gold Account

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    These are just examples, not that I would recommend them. In fact I stay away from most of these.

    What I do see is, 2-words still not taken, especially at drop but also handregs that are worth money. And lots of.

    (edit) There is still money to be made and a lot to be captured. Whoever doesn't believe that, just watch my sales reporting.

    Anyway, disagree is welcome in this thread as well!:xf.smile:
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2021
  8. Alessandro Couteau

    Alessandro Couteau Top Contributor VIP

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    My advice - focus on GOOD names, doesn’t matter the extension,


    And no offense Twiki, but you definitely should not invest in typo domains or names with double vowels ^ there’s no value in that

    I wouldn’t put all your eggs in one basket, you can say whatever you want about the market, however the proof is in the pudding, even Verisign is starting to actually tell their investors what’s going on w/ their $165M bid on .web and why ^ and it’s actually complete opposite to .com domains being available ^

    There are 360M domains in circulation according to ICANN w/ 2B sites online ... and over 100K business’ (on average) are formed every day ^ with these numbers in mind, you cannot restrict the market to just one extension, doesn’t matter if it’s .com or .whatever ^ the market cannot survive on the basis of investors selling back and forth to investors, and there’s a fine line here, many business’ today don’t understand the value of domains ... case in point, look at Petsmart whom owns dogs.com ... they should also own cats.com / but they don’t, cats.com had a reserve of $500K at ROTD, and did not sell ^ the bids of $2.5M for bird.com and fish.com were fake bids ^ Monte had to sue the “buyer” ... it should not be this way ^ we should have business’ whom understand the value and importance of domains attending these auctions and we should do a better job of marketing the value of domains, truth is the Registrars should be doing this ^

    And GTLD investors and PRO .com investors should come together to further grow the value of domain names and the domain industry as a whole ^ no one should just be defending one extension, because that’s where they made money or that’s where they plan to make money ^

    We should support each other, and in exchange the value of the names will continue to go up ^ similar to big banks investing money into DeFi and Crypto

    Invest in good names ! Single keywords In powerful industries, doesn’t matter the extension
     
  9. DomainGaze.com

    DomainGaze.com Established Member

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    I feel there is scope for good names, but one has to be increasingly selective and patient. And one must not just follow trends, but have knowledge in the area to be able to identify the right keywords. The sheer amount of permutations for popular keywords that are taken is mind boggling and so often times you are just delighted to still get something!

    However, one must remember that it is mostly the best permutations that would sell and so it is essential to resist leftovers until you are sure. I have to remind myself this over and over again, anytime I am tempted to register something. I like to buy domains that are pleasant and can be branded or are technology related. And often times being discerning helps you notice trends and can get you some interesting names. If nothing, I could develop one of those since I am into that area of technology.
     
  10. twiki

    twiki Top Contributor VIP Gold Account

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    Well, you're a ngTLD domainer and it shows. Nothing wrong with that. But this is about .COMs.

    I don't invest in typos or double vowels but I've seen plenty of others doing it, some selling.

    I'm not defending the .COM extension. I'm just showing it still has plenty of potential left. But obviously not everyone is a .com domainer. In fact, as of today I have 2 other TLD's in portfolio for each .COM. You might have seen my sales of .org, .io, .co, even xyz. So I'm in your boat as well - I'm in multiple boats actually.

    I was simply referring strictly to .COM and not as a matter of competition with other tlds. Is there a competition? Sure, but in a developed market there's always room for competition and success can be on either side.
     
  11. twiki

    twiki Top Contributor VIP Gold Account

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    I have a very similar approach. Thumbs up.

    Resisting leftovers - you learn this early if you're a domainer that learns fast.

    I only reg names that make perfect sense to me and where I can envision a niche, a particular buyer and why they would buy that name.

    Trends, well, yes - but only jumping in where trends getting in maturity already. I don't invest by chance and nobody should, I think.

    Hoping that something turns big in the future is chance. I prefer to invest in what I see sellable today. There's only one forward-looking niche I invested in, for the sole reason that it's zero chance it will not be here.

    I'm seeing plenty of such mistakes and hopes in the "Your reg of the day" thread and they often make me cringe, unfortunately. I feel bad for many of those doing that. There's a minority who gets the good stuff but most are going to lose money long-term.
     
  12. m1zz

    m1zz Established Member

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    It seems like 15 chars and up . Coms there are still plenty available XD.

    Most of the valuable .coms are either over priced or over used and spammed from my point of view.
     
  13. lock

    lock DomainUsed.com VIP

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    I bought a domain a moment ago no immediate value except to me end user. I have contacts already for when i am ready to develop and manufacture. No searches but generic brand. I am holding off so i do not have conflicts of interest i presently promote supplier. I see value in what i have.
     

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