Verisign's spent the best part of 2016 putting out warnings. The .COM operator and domain industry heavyweight highlighted its Q3 earnings report with a stern "Ending Q4 '16 Domain Name Base expected to decrease by between 1.5M to 2.8M registrations from the end of Q3 '16". A forecast which the company said was based on "on historical seasonality and current market trends."
Using Verisign as the authoritative source for global domain name stats, and looking at mid-year numbers from 2008 on, the trend remains clearly one of growth.
Truth is, no-one knows what's in store for the domain industry this year. What if we use charts like financial analysts do to try and understand where the markets might go next? For example, the charts on new gTLDs seem very positive. The specialist website ntldstats.com puts the number of new gTLD domains at around 1.4 million in July 2014, rising to 6.4 million a year later and to 22.8 million in July 2016.
New and ever more complex rules have been imposed by ICANN on such things as WHOIS or domain transfers, as if the ICANN-land policy-makers were oblivious to the fact that outside, in the real world, not one non-professional domain owner really understands the WDRP-related emails they get every year (that's short for WHOIS Data Reminder Policy in case you were wondering). Let alone proposed new developments like the Draft Registration Data Access Protocol Operational Profile for gTLD Registries and Registrars (!).
Read MoreBut even if rules were simpler and support for the industry more forthcoming, the only real growth factor remains need. If domain professionals like those investors from China continue to see rewards in putting their money in this market, and the idea of owning one's online identity continues to seem important to the Internet user in general, then perhaps 2017 won't be the year the domain industry breaks with growth...