.com peak approaching

[netfleet]

Growth of .com can be attributed in large part due to it being the first widely used & recognised extension and also the de facto extension for the US.

These two factors are the main reason for the growth of registrations and value of .com domain names.

However things are now changing. US internet penetration is nearing 75% and the emerging markets is where we should look for internet and therefore domain growth.

Let's consider two of the biggies - China and India. Internet penetration stands at 16% and 6% respectively with a combined population of about 2.5 billion, ten times the population of the US.

So, when this penetration starts to ramp up (which it is already doing), more and more businesses and individuals will 'go online' and create websites.

Billions of them.

We need to consider what they will do when considering a domain name (I'm talking end users here). Naturally they will want something that either matches their business name or product, is an acronym of their business name, is a generic related to their business name or just something catchy.

I believe in the shgort-term, they will look at two extensions 1) the .com and 2) their cc-TLD. What will happen (and is happening now) is they will struggle to find anything that fits the bill in .com and so will go for the cc-TLD (.cn or .in for example).

Over time, more and more businesses will register in their own cc-TLD shifting the proportion of .com's to a relatively minor amount. The exceptions will be global brands or companies targetting a truly global market who may be forced to take the .com (although they will no doubt cover the cc-TLD as well).

This will mean that cc-TLD's will dominate in each country (except perhaps in the US where .com is firmly entrenched) and new website owners, in time, won't even worry about the .com as they see their respective cc-TLD everywhere and being the norm.

The growth will be in these cc-TLD's whereas .com, without an expanding market to drive it will peak in terms of investment value.

Thoughts?

 

[jacal1]

I think the argument for the strength or growth of ccTLDs lacks a major peice - the world economy is becoming a true world economy, with more and more commercial and service companies, small, medium, and large doing business in many countries at once.

For this reason I think .net and other global tlds will be the next explosion.

Even a small company that is headquartered in India and at the moment only serves the people of India will likely have hopes and dreams of growth that allows for a more global prescence. They might want a .net rather than a .in.

 

[netfleet]

Sorry, just heard this so many times that com will eventually be dead.

.com still king.

.com is not going anywhere

.com can only be king

.com can never fall

Let's get one thing straight with this thread. No one said that .com will die or cease to command the greatest prices (globally). Your .com portfolios are safe - you just won't make much money with them

The arguments about the big guys, the global brands having to have .com is very true. but in numbers, these companies don't amount to much compared with the millions of small businesses around the world.

The fact is, in some countries, the ccTLD does dominaten today and .com is a distant 2nd (or even third). Vurg, you are from Australia, you would know that. If you told 100 people that your business was called "ABC services" and then asked them to guess your website you'd probably get 95 people saying abcservices.com.au and 5 people saying abcservices.com.

I would expect this to already be the same in many other countries - is this the case?

I think the argument for the strength or growth of ccTLDs lacks a major peice - the world economy is becoming a true world economy, with more and more commercial and service companies, small, medium, and large doing business in many countries at once.

Whilst it's true that global companies will go for the .com, they are so heavily outweighed by the companies that only do business locally that in certain markets I still believe the .com will be overwhelmed.

Pick up your national business directory which should include every company that operates in your area from small co to a blue-chip global empire. what proportion offer services outside their country? A very small amount.

I think working in the domain industry, very much a global business, it's easy to forget that it's the builders, florists, bakers, restaurants, carpet cleaners etc that make up the majority of the businesses and 99.9% of these will never become global.

The domain name of a global giant takes up the same amount of virtual real estate as the domain name of a sole trader (albeit probably considerably less valuable real estate).

I still feel that local ccTLDs is where the growth will be. Just think of that small business in India, called VIP Plumbing. He decides to get a website so needs to choose the domain name. He sees vipplumbing.com is gone, vip.com is gone, vipp.com is gone but vipplumbing.in is available. What would you do (as a plumber, not a domainer)?

Multiple above times 10,000,000 and you have massive growth in .in

 

[DnEbook]

[QUOTE
The fact is, in some countries, the ccTLD does dominaten today and .com is a distant 2nd (or even third). Vurg, you are from Australia, you would know that. If you told 100 people that your business was called "ABC services" and then asked them to guess your website you'd probably get 95 people saying abcservices.com.au and 5 people saying abcservices.com.


I think working in the domain industry, very much a global business, it's easy to forget that it's the builders, florists, bakers, restaurants, carpet cleaners etc that make up the majority of the businesses and 99.9% of these will never become global.


[/QUOTE]

You are completely correct regarding 'what's your website address for abcservices' ........... yes 95% of aussies would say .com.au , and yes the small business is happy to be seen as 'local' .......... Not every one wants a myspace or a facebook website , some peole dont seem to understand this ??

 

[onewordonly]

The local .com.au tld is mostly used in Australia and any serious business targeting here would register and use it but .com is also widely used but no where near as much as .com.au.