.com peak approaching

[netfleet]

Growth of .com can be attributed in large part due to it being the first widely used & recognised extension and also the de facto extension for the US.

These two factors are the main reason for the growth of registrations and value of .com domain names.

However things are now changing. US internet penetration is nearing 75% and the emerging markets is where we should look for internet and therefore domain growth.

Let's consider two of the biggies - China and India. Internet penetration stands at 16% and 6% respectively with a combined population of about 2.5 billion, ten times the population of the US.

So, when this penetration starts to ramp up (which it is already doing), more and more businesses and individuals will 'go online' and create websites.

Billions of them.

We need to consider what they will do when considering a domain name (I'm talking end users here). Naturally they will want something that either matches their business name or product, is an acronym of their business name, is a generic related to their business name or just something catchy.

I believe in the shgort-term, they will look at two extensions 1) the .com and 2) their cc-TLD. What will happen (and is happening now) is they will struggle to find anything that fits the bill in .com and so will go for the cc-TLD (.cn or .in for example).

Over time, more and more businesses will register in their own cc-TLD shifting the proportion of .com's to a relatively minor amount. The exceptions will be global brands or companies targetting a truly global market who may be forced to take the .com (although they will no doubt cover the cc-TLD as well).

This will mean that cc-TLD's will dominate in each country (except perhaps in the US where .com is firmly entrenched) and new website owners, in time, won't even worry about the .com as they see their respective cc-TLD everywhere and being the norm.

The growth will be in these cc-TLD's whereas .com, without an expanding market to drive it will peak in terms of investment value.

Thoughts?

 

[TheBulldog]

Thoughts?

Um, in the US, no, com still is king, although many would love to see a couple others take over.

IN fact, even in other countries, com will remain king, although their local ccTLD will likely take second place, eventually.

Sorry, just heard this so many times that com will eventually be dead.

Personally, would love to see that happen, but it just isn't going to happen. More likely we will be surfing in full 3d through brain implants before that happens.

 

[cache]

if you spend a lot of money to promote your non .com website, the owner of the .com website will always benefit from your effort.

 

[VURG]

.com still king.

lots of growth left.

 

[netfleet]

Arguments please?

 

[Seabass]

I agree with netfleet.

There IS tons of growth left for domainers snagging domains, but the .com market increasing in a "meaningful" way, meaning domains with traffic and mindshare, are disappearing quick. Just look at how all the expired domain platform's inventory is drying up quickly.

I also think some here have misinterpreted what netfleet said. He did not say .com would die, just be a lesser total percentage of registered domains once the other markets mature. The .com is slowing down in the English language.

The other domain markets maturing also does not mean anyone will be making less money in .com just b/c there is one billion Chinese sites and Indian domains are parked or developed.

 

[netfleet]

.com is king at the moment there is no question of that.

.com will probably remain king for a long long time in terms of highest prices commanded

But what is important is where the growth is - money is made in growth markets, not expensive markets (from an investment perspective).

Real estate analogy - do you make more money as your $2m mansion appreciates or with your 10 $200K properties in an up and coming area?

 

[N-grace]

I do not think there will be a saturation for .com names..reason? Because its the "only" extension representing commercial names, so, giving domainers liberty to convert their sites into anything..I mean,they can use .com for personal sites as well as for commercial purposes. So, basically its not about saturation of .com empire, its actually its "value" in terms of representation of a large arena of the whole world wide web. .net,.info,.org names are very focussed or limited in their presentation. In my view .com will always be leading other domain extensions. Moreover, internet is taking form of a large virtual market, so, again raising .com's value

 

[equity78]

I am never sure when people use the word "we" like we are all on the same team, that we have the same budgets, the same skill sets, the same risk tolerance and patience holding the domain.

First off I am pretty sure "We" do not all have knowledge of Chinese or Indian culture,vocabulary or customs. I know a lot of people think just reg a ton of things and hopefully something takes off. I disagree, less is more IMO. I believe people should find their niche and stick to it, and if you believe you know everything than you need to see a psychiatrist as you are obviously mentally unstable.

.com is not going anywhere and whether it continues to grow in terms of overall raw numbers means little imo, its where the quality is and quality matters. Additionally the quality in .in and .cn have certainly been registered by people in those countries and domainers who spotted the trend two years ago. .in is not a new investment opportunity many on this forum have been regging for a couple years and have probably regged the quality.

So if you are going to play in second tier names .com/.net/.org are better choices IMO.

And because there is growth in these CCtld means .com will slow ? I disagree because most likely a lot of chinese names in CHINESE will be available in .com, and then there is the whole Chinese IDN .com play. So .com will be fine as the top extension on the net no matter what semantics anyone wants to use to support another agenda. Again IMO

 

[netfleet]

By "we", I mean "we domainers", people on the forum. If it upsets you let's assume I said "one" instead.

whether it continues to grow in terms of overall raw numbers means little imo

Sure it matters. It matters a great deal in any extension. The more sheer numbers registered the less choice (for free reg) which pushed up demand for aftermarket. Classic Supply vs Demand.

And because there is growth in these CCtld means .com will slow ? I disagree because most likely a lot of chinese names in CHINESE will be available in .com, and then there is the whole Chinese IDN .com play.

Now that's the first valid argument against the theory that .com will slow although in India in particular, they appear to use many English words in businesses & domains. Also acronyms (LLL's, LLLL's etc) and numerics have global appeal from a language POV but limited supply (or are expensive) in the .com extension - again 'forcing' use of the cc-TLD.

IDN's... well that's a whole other story & if they take off won't help the investment potantial of any TLD

So .com will be fine as the top extension on the net no matter what semantics anyone wants to use to support another agenda. Again IMO

Remember I never said that .com won't be the 'top' of the pile - we're talking growth and I don't know what you mean 'another agenda'?

BTW didn't mean to sound like a know-it-all, just throwing something out for discussion. Thought it would be a little contentious, especially by our US based members

 

[N-grace]

I am never sure when people use the word "we" like we are all on the same team, that we have the same budgets, the same skill sets, the same risk tolerance and patience holding the domain.

First off I am pretty sure "We" do not all have knowledge of Chinese or Indian culture,vocabulary or customs. I know a lot of people think just reg a ton of things and hopefully something takes off. I disagree, less is more IMO. I believe people should find their niche and stick to it, and if you believe you know everything than you need to see a psychiatrist as you are obviously mentally unstable.

.com is not going anywhere and whether it continues to grow in terms of overall raw numbers means little imo, its where the quality is and quality matters. Additionally the quality in .in and .cn have certainly been registered by people in those countries and domainers who spotted the trend two years ago. .in is not a new investment opportunity many on this forum have been regging for a couple years and have probably regged the quality.

So if you are going to play in second tier names .com/.net/.org are better choices IMO.

And because there is growth in these CCtld means .com will slow ? I disagree because most likely a lot of chinese names in CHINESE will be available in .com, and then there is the whole Chinese IDN .com play. So .com will be fine as the top extension on the net no matter what semantics anyone wants to use to support another agenda. Again IMO

well said about the language or region specific options for .com domains. Indeed, .com empire is still to be explored more by "local" names ending with .com. Buyer's choice will not only be limited to "English" .com names, so, extending .com's field to region or language specific names. If I ever wanted to name my company or organization in my mother tongue, obviously, I would be choosing the same name with a .com extension.

Thought it would be a little contentious, especially by our US based members

What about non-US members? Are they allowed to comment on your topic? If not, am sorry then.

 

[VURG]

Not from US.

Whatever is on top looks the most professional. IDN's will definately dominate different language groups but English is the working language and .com dominates the English language.

From my understanding of Indian culture, I don't expect .in to be a threat to .com. I think that .in will be used for localised Indian products and services but a lot of emerging Indian entreprenours will be making their money marketing internationally through .com.

I don't feel that I understand China enough to comment. Big country though.

Real estate analogy - do you make more money as your $2m mansion appreciates or with your 10 $200K properties in an up and coming area?

Would be nice to have the money to speak from experience. I don't agree with the analogy because you only know in hindsite and it depends on the state of the market. Often the mansion is a lot better investment.

 

[DnEbook]

It's easy ....... in australia , the new business has .com.au , the old one has .com , because that's all there was at that point of time , to be seen to be australian most business's will go for .com.au , it tells you customers you are 'australian' and that's important in many local business's thinking , some do think .com means american and not local , last time i made this comment i was anti american ...... not the case

 

[TechQueen]

In my opinion nothing will come even close to .COM and it has a long long growth left with it. Anyways no one can be exact about the future, maybe ".web" can come as a strong contender in the future. :D

 

[ssamriga]

of course .com will remain the first.
but cctlds will be regged a lot more, thus lowering .coms percentage of all domains.
I can't say for sure about Chinese and Indians, but for example in Latvia most companies don't care about .com, if they have .lv then .com with their brand name can be left free and they don't care about it.

I presume it would be the same in any local market, why use .com which is international, if your business is completely local?

 

[shockie]

... but English is the working language and .com dominates the English language.

very true, just like how usd is the currency of business (despite losing some of its value recently). sure other cctlds and currencies will grow, but at the end of the day, english/.com/usd is still the accepted whatevers of international business.

 

[Kate]

Um, in the US, no, com still is king, although many would love to see a couple others take over.

IN fact, even in other countries, com will remain king, although their local ccTLD will likely take second place, eventually.

In Europe, there are already a few countries where the local extension is dominant. Actually in certain places the local ccTLD is so strong you can afford not to have the .com (sometimes it's even available...)

Sorry, just heard this so many times that com will eventually be dead.

It's not dying. There is room for growth for both ccTLDs & gTLDs

 

[Sull]

.com will always, :imho: , be the extension associated with the Internet. Sure, other TLDs will take off and some might even rival .com for dominance in certain parts of the world, but the Internet was founded on .com (other than the first CERN website nxoc01.cern.ch) and will always be associated with it. Plus, all the big companies are rooted in .com for their web presence. Sure, they may buy up all the other extensions to protect their investment, but .com is their home.

 

[TheBulldog]

Real estate analogy - do you make more money as your $2m mansion appreciates or with your 10 $200K properties in an up and coming area?

The real estate market fluctuates and not in a good way. When the market drops out, the houses I spent 200K on are no worth 100K each while the $2m on is $1.5M.

Sound investments always win in the end. Emerging markets are notoriously unstable and always high risk.

Emerging markets rise and fall. Real estate fluctuates.

The soundest market is com and will continue to be so. Thinking that a ccTLD will become second place in any other market then that country itself is nearsighted and foolish.

 

[raredn.com]

.com can only be king

The answer is simple: All large companies, youtube, myspace, and every other large company on earth uses .com and the fact that all these dominating websites of 'recognition' use .com this firmly cements a foundation for .com which can not be moved, the most solid foundation any extension could ever have. This is the reason .com can command such a high price

This is the reason that unless every big company and website in the world change to a different extension, then .com can never fall (but I guess some of the big websites make a home extension for each country too, like ebay and google etc)

Other extensions are like building a house on a foundation of sand by comparison to .com thanks to all the big companies building a foundation of stone for .com : )

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