2022 Predictions

[imwangi]

2021 has closed with Metaverse and NFTS at the top of the domain market table. If you had a key domain name in any of these niches, I bet you made a pretty penny. I wasn't lucky; but as we know, this business is about timing and chance. Knowing what is trending is critical, but by then all the high value domains are taken. It's therefore important to look into a crystal ball and take a chance on where the market is headed, where the next meta or nft will come from. So, what's your predictions for 2022?

 

[TeresaFarrelly]

meta dot com

OP asked what will be trending in 2022; I think this website, which is just a site lander by now,
will most likely become a gate into a whole new universe

And then we have Apple, Google and Microsoft, maybe even Amazon, coming into this space too.

2022 will be a great year for VR, cryptogaming, and AR (with some time difference).

I will definitely. Thank you so much for your reply.

 

[radarcrypto]

pretty sure the following domains will sell for 8 figures in the next 12-24 months

NFTs.com

DAOs.com

CBDCs.com

 

[Jim H]

meta

web3

nfts

dao

Just guess.

 

[Skyvisum]

pretty sure the following domains will sell for 8 figures in the next 12-24 months

NFTs.com

DAOs.com

CBDCs.com

Nfts .Com sold for $15000000.You got this right.

 

[radarcrypto]

Nfts .Com sold for $15000000.You got this right.

That was an easy bet

I foresee DAOs.com sell for more in 1-2 years

 

[jmcc]

Fascinating how nobody noticed that .COM has been losing domain names for the last three months. (Seems to be a Covid drop effect).
01 June 2022: -33,353 (May 2022)
01 July 2022: -228,133 (June 2022)
01 August: -123,467 (July 2022)

Verisign had been dropping hints of a small slowdown on some of its earnings calls. The increase in Covid registrations also hit many of the ccTLDs and they've also seen varying levels of decreases. Shopify also cut 10% of its workforce saying that its bet on the continued rise in demand due to Covid didn't work out.

The COM seems to be improving but the period from April to September is generally slower each year with new registration volume picking up as December and the Christmas/Holiday/Black Friday season approaches. There are some other effects that domainers should be aware of in some of the legacy gTLDs. There seems to be rise in golden handcuffs renewals with the renewal fee rising to a multiple of the new registration fee.

There's also a price increase on .COM starting in September. Not sure how this is going to affect new registrations but with .COM going negative, it is not great timing.

Regards...jmcc

 

[tonyk2000]

Fascinating how nobody noticed that .COM has been losing domain names for the last three months. (Seems to be a Covid drop effect).
01 June 2022: -33,353 (May 2022)
01 July 2022: -228,133 (June 2022)
01 August: -123,467 (July 2022)

An interesting observation. Thank you @jmcc!
My best guess: there was an increase (sort of) in IT (hosting, domains) in covid lockdown periods, due to businesses going online, as well as more new entrepreneurs trying to start something online (successfully or not is another question, if one lost offline job - he had to try at least). Unsure about new registrations numbers in 2020-2022, but aftermarket sales, at least some sales not in cosmic price ranges, occured exactly because of the above.
So, what we see now is just a side effect, the new regs and aftermarket sales may in fact decrease accordingly.

Drop in renewals? Again, more numbers should be analyzed. Of course domainers mass handregs of meta domains one day, or covid domains another day - most are now dropped, or will be soon.

The time will tell whether they announce new pandemic and what the new (ab)normality will be...

 

[satsdifference.com]

www.vitalik.eth

 

[jmcc]

An interesting observation. Thank you @jmcc!
My best guess: there was an increase (sort of) in IT (hosting, domains) in covid lockdown periods, due to businesses going online, as well as more new entrepreneurs trying to start something online (successfully or not is another question, if one lost offline job - he had to try at least). Unsure about new registrations numbers in 2020-2022, but aftermarket sales, at least some sales not in cosmic price ranges, occured exactly because of the above.
So, what we see now is just a side effect, the new regs and aftermarket sales may in fact decrease accordingly.
The time will tell whether they announce new pandemic and what the new (ab)normality will be...

There are multiple trends happening at the same time. That makes it very difficult to work out what is going on with some TLDs.

There's the Covid drop which was always going to happen. The problem is that it is not a sharp shock confined to a few months like the Chinese CHiPs bubble a few years ago.

There's also an inflation trend where domainers may drop domain names that have not had offers for a long time or ordinary users drop domain names that they will not get around to developing. Some registrations that drop over April-September are from discounting offers but they generally occur in the first quarter and early second quarter of each year. The .COM price increase is going to feed into that trend.

Some of the Covid registrations spikes were way out of normal for .COM and some ccTLDs. The problem was that many would never be developed and unless they were being used for e-mail, they would be dropped.

The For Sale set of domain names always gets hit in the aftermath of a registrations spike. Most of the aftermarket is basically a rigged game when it comes to ordinary non-registrar domainers. The really good domain names end up on the auction sites because the registrars generally have the DNS traffic data for many of these domain names. For every headline sale, there are thousands of domain names that will drop without ever getting an offer.

The effect for some ccTLDs seems to be amplified because of domainers applying .COM rules to ccTLDs. Apart from a few long-gone domain names, it rarely works because ccTLD users generally don't think in terms of generics. They often think in terms of brandables and geos.

This is the .COM spike in new registrations from 2021:
01 April 2021: 4,068,132 (March 2021)
01 May 2021: 3,788,901 (April 2021)
01 June 2021: 3,806,558 (May 2021)

These have been going through their renew/delete cycle over the last few months.

Regards...jmcc

 

[aliweb]

What about Soul Bound Token (SBT)? Do you think it will go big in 2023?