Why short domains will keep rising in value for still many years

[italiandragon]

There are many newbies here everyday and you can see it.

But what people don`t see is where they are from , unless they tell us that.

As many of you know , I`m from Rome , Italy and have been there till I was 28, then in 2004 I left that Country.

At that time, I heard very little about domain value despite internet was the center of my daily life.

As far as I know, in Italy , the "domain world" and the business behind it like we know it know was late to be discovered, very late.

This mainly because , the main language of it is English and very few (I should say "rare") italians read the news in English.

Plus, financial issues that are common in italian families since the introduction of the Euro , made investments in domains something that is rare within italians that live in Italy. That guy is one exception as surely he had no money problems. I doubt he handregged those names , but I`d like to find it out and have a chat with him to know the story behind them.
I was using internet about 10 to 12 hours everyday in Italy since 2000 till 2004 and never heard about LLL.com till I was reading news in English , here in Australia.
We just did not know about it. And I bet , still many italians (and not only) still don`t know.
How many new investors will come to the domain world if there was a massive coverage? Too many people try to get rich b y buying stocks and hoping to get 10% in a year on their portfolio while we complain on getting 500%.....just imagine as the world internet penetration will grow from the actual 18 % to a possible 80 %......then even a random LLLL.com or L-L-L.com will be worth 4 figures.
This is what I expect within 10 years. It`s not a guarantee or a promise , it`s my point of view.

I have been dealing with the stockmarkets around the world for 8 years and there are a few things I can say:

- the domain industry is growing faster and there are great investment opportunities as long as everyone understands that an investment offer always a risk.

- evaluing this risk versus the benefits is the problem.

- no one can predict the future so my best advice is that you need to put on domains only the money you can loose exactly like for the stocks.

- no one can tell you for sure if a CVCV.com in 2010 will be worth $50,000 or $10 , it`s impossible to be sure 100 %.

What do we know , is what happened in the past and what`s happening NOW. So we have statistics and Trends that help us in making the best decision.


Few years ago, you could buy a LLL.com for $200 and a nice LLLL.com for reg fee.

Now , even the ugliest LLL.com goes for nearly $10,000 and the LLLL.com are sold out.

The CVCV.info , the CVCV.net are sold out , the L-L-L.com are sold out too.

And so many LLL.ccTLD.

Every short domain keep rising in value while we are still just few domainers compared to how many could come and join the market. Even if large part of the new internet users will have little money to spend , they will generate more traffic , more revenue for all internet companies , starting from the advertising industry. What I feel is like watching the Google stock price the day of the IPO , well below $100 and watching it these days hitting the $700 mark. I feel that the Internet is still very young.

I keep looking at those datas from www.internetworldstats.com and at the miserable 18 % of worldwide internet users and then I come up with this in my mind:

"We are still in the beginning......if the internet market was a building of 100 floors , we are like at the 20th floor or so, the best view has yet to come".

 

[DnEbook]

thanks for your views , the groundfloor opportunity is the best floor (then you can buy the top floor) its a fun way of investing ....... it's good to have a money making hobby or job , with a very cheap entry level

 

[npcomplete]

bene, bene! la mia moglie è italiana.

I have been trading the markets for 35 years, and the one thing I have learned is that markets go up and down. It sounds obvious, but some don't believe it, and have never been through a bear market. For decades I have heard "this market is different" for different markets, or "this time is different" within the same market. I saw this and thrived in the silver corner by the Hunt brothers, in the dot com bubble, the housing bubble, etc. etc. etc. A worldwide recession could change market projections in domaining very quickly. A large war could do likewise, and both recessions and wars have been periodic events throughout history. I agree we are starting to see a lot of new people in domaining (I have been at it over 11 years). I usually compare it to the frenzy we see near market tops where the grandmothers try to jump in. Even a US-only recession could radically alter pricing, since the newbies may discover their jobs are gone, and that they were banking on success with money needed for mortgages, rent, college, etc. which can depress prices through large scale selling. Since you are a seasoned market veteran, you know that markets affect other markets.

I am not saying we are in a bubble, but I am seeing signs of speculation that I have seen in the other markets like housing, futures, and stocks that I have traded for decades. I suppose "this market is different" and immune to the market dynamics that have affected every other market since the beginning of trade. I don't mean to put a negative spin on things, just a dose of reality. World events have an uncanny way of laying waste to the best projections of man. Some people's dreams are perhaps better described as delusions. OTOH, I am still buying domains so sans war and recession I am still bullish on domain pricing, and ready to ride out the bad times should they happen. Some people need to ask themselves "what if my domains do not sell at my pricing dreams?"

ciao,
Marco

 

[goodkarmaco]

If gas is $7.99 a gallon and it costs $250 to fill the tank will many have disposable income?

 

[filter]

[...]markets go up and down. It sounds obvious, but some don't believe it, and have never been through a bear market.[...]

LLL.us anyone...?

For decades I have heard "this market is different" for different markets, or "this time is different" within the same market.

Hopefully this time will actually not be too much different from the rise of LLL.com (maybe for the "premium" LLLL) or at least CCC.com (for the "anti-premiums") ... But who knows, really it depends a lot on where the tipping point of scarcity lies - is it somewhere in between 17,576 (LLL) and 456,976 (LLLL)? (More thoughts on that later ... not in this post though).

I usually compare it to the frenzy we see near market tops where the grandmothers try to jump in.

Any grandmothers on this board yet? (If so, :hi: hello and welcome - please send me a PM, will be interested to learn how you got into domaining!

[...]just a dose of reality. World events have an uncanny way of laying waste to the best projections of man. Some people's dreams are perhaps better described as delusions. OTOH, I am still buying domains so sans war and recession I am still bullish on domain pricing, and ready to ride out the bad times should they happen.

I have a funny perspective on Lorenzo's "100 story building" anology - probably shared by more than a few people on this board who were (like I was) making "dream" money working in the vicinity of a couple 110-story buildings in downtown Manhattan a little over 6 years ago. There's a big hole in the ground there now, with more and more bigger holes in the ground (and peoples lives) "rippling" all around the world in the years since then ... But ... I'm still standing. And domaining again. (Just some personal perspective on that analogy ...)

Anyway - I have to say I agree with the basic premise of Lorenzo's post - there is a solid foundation to expect continuously increasing demand for a finite supply of LLLL (and short domain names in general). Yet - and this echoes ideas emphasized by Marc - speculation is risky business, and there is no such thing as a "sure thing" - the best one can hope for is decent odds.

Keep in mind that expectations about growth are usually already very much "priced into" the current market. And, for every buyer, there's also a seller (metaphorically speaking - it's probably not exactly a one to one ratio!) In other words, a decision to buy at a certain price mirrors a decision to sell at a certain price. Each side of the trade has their own motivation to do the exchange - some of that motivation has to do with different expectations about future value - but this part of the equation may be small compared to other factors that don't have much directly to do with expectations about future prices. One side (the buyer) may simply be long on cash and short on investment opportunities - the other side, vice versa. (So, to play with that last idea a bit, sometimes people have more dollars than sense!)

:imho:

 

[domainer50]

I have to disagree for this reason. Take all the LLL.coms and give them to one owner. The will be xx,xxx or whatever the market says. Now if people start creating businesses with 3 letter acronyms and buy this guy out so that every single LLL.com is in the hands of a business owner who is not going to sell. The price may stay high but no one will ever see any profit because they wont sell it.

 

[VURG]

I expect there to be a post boom period with short domains where a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money but I don't expect it to be soon. A lot of care must be taken with these names. People are already losing a lot of money by buying the wrong ones and not knowing what to do with them.

 

[Malaysia]

"We are still in the beginning......if the internet market was a building of 100 floors , we are like at the 20th floor or so, the best view has yet to come".

i like this .its just simply endless.. like eg new towers come n claimed the highest n the one before that drop to the second but internet is always gonna be the giant that will only increase wif population increasing and more % ppl using the internet..

Domains can be passed down as heirlooms..to our generations to come... ~!

 

[PowerUp]

I expect there to be a post boom period with short domains where a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money but I don't expect it to be soon. A lot of care must be taken with these names. People are already losing a lot of money by buying the wrong ones and not knowing what to do with them.

Here in lies the problem. It could hit you sooner than you think. I was investing in another market and thought "There's still a lot of room to grow. The market can appreciate for many more months." Then it hit me not more than 2 months after I jumped in and everybody started to jump ship.

 

[Keynes]

If gas is $7.99 a gallon and it costs $250 to fill the tank will many have disposable income?

Domains, when well-utilized and properly invested in, are growth assets that also pay a dividend (development or parking revenues.) In a world with lower disposable incomes, people will have to make more intelligent investment decisions, from small businesses to large firms. While oil will rise above $100/barrel, we're also going to see a growth in fuel efficient alternatives and a substitution toward shared transit (and more local communities) over the next 5-10 years. So, if you have a few SUVs and don't own any technological investments you might want to reconsider...

 

[mirrorcube]

Great Thread first off as i enjoyed reading the posts. To stay on the theme that markets are cyclical and that all investments have risk, it should be pointed out that people make and break markets. Domaining contains a few things that i see as very positive. One is that the medium stills has a lot of untapped applications and two there are a lot of smart people in this business. Do smart people do dumb things, sure. Do growth fields have lulls, sure. But overall i'm bullish on this business and its growth potential.

 

[DNK.it]

Great thread! As always, Lorenzo.
I knew that you are Italian, your avatar and your name say so, but I didn’t imagine that you were Roman ( nice city ). I’m Italian too, I live in Molise a region of the South of Italy.
I have known the “domain word” very late, at the beginning of this year than I became a np addicted and I have read everything about this word on this nice forum. As you see I’m bad at write English, but I can read well… this is the mainly reason because I lurk often and write less
As I said I’d know the “domain word” very late, but I was on Internet from 1995 and I was using Internet about 10 hours a day, sometime all day, however mainly for chat, hack and stuff like that. In Italy in the 1995 we haven’t Adsl and the telephone bill was very expensive ( 1m Lire/month approximately 500 eur/month ), but luckily me and my family haven’t financial issue. In Italy “domain word” is still very quiet, some Italian domainers ( that include me ) are trying to make information on “domain word” and Sedo this year have done first meeting in Italy about domains. Btw I’m not in the “domain word” to make a lot of money but mainly because there are a mix of thing that I love: community, internet, people and domains of course.

Regards,
Antonio

 

[filter]

Great thread! As always, Lorenzo.
I knew that you are Italian, your avatar and your name say so, but I didn’t imagine that you were Roman ( nice city ). I’m Italian too, I live in Molise a region of the South of Italy.
[...]
Btw I’m not in the “domain word” to make a lot of money but mainly because there are a mix of thing that I love: community, internet, people and domains of course.

Buen giorno! hello Antonio :yell:
(tapping into the "6 degrees of separation" from Italian roots here, I might claim a shade of Italian origin in a certain special way - my parents met in Venice ...)

Your "Top Domain Value Report" @ TDVR.com is a great contribution to the LLLL.community - much appreciated, thanks so much for that! IMO good current pricing info is key to helping people make decisions to buy or sell in this market with confidence that the price is fair on both sides of the deal! I have about 20 more prices to add to your database soon, hopefully tonight - all from trades I've made in the $10-$40 price range this last week - have been so busy wheeling and dealing, time to take a breather and add it all up now! :hehe:

 

[Ross]

I believe that domains are pretty much limitless, but there is a line considering the length of domains. The more these short one word or two or even three word domains get bought up the higher the price will go up. There is a point i believe to as how though. Once the domains find their end users then those domains are pretty much done and will not come on to the market for a very long time considering that the internet is pretty much the future of the world. I believe that when the good domains get scarce there will be a huge sell out and good domains will be come very very expensive. I dont think that will happen for a long time so im pretty sure there is a ton of time for investment and growth of the industry despite the size that is still left to be owned. So in otherwords that "100 story building" analogy in my opinion is very very on the dot. Once we get to the top it will reign supreme and it will be very very hard to get in to the 100th story. :imho:

 

[jido]

I expect there to be a post boom period with short domains where a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money but I don't expect it to be soon. A lot of care must be taken with these names. People are already losing a lot of money by buying the wrong ones and not knowing what to do with them.

That is my fear... Hope I am going to be all right. And true I don't know what to do with them Anyone wants to partner with me?

 

[DNK.it]

Buen giorno! hello Antonio :yell:
(tapping into the "6 degrees of separation" from Italian roots here, I might claim a shade of Italian origin in a certain special way - my parents met in Venice ...)

Your "Top Domain Value Report" @ TDVR.com is a great contribution to the LLLL.community - much appreciated, thanks so much for that! IMO good current pricing info is key to helping people make decisions to buy or sell in this market with confidence that the price is fair on both sides of the deal! I have about 20 more prices to add to your database soon, hopefully tonight - all from trades I've made in the $10-$40 price range this last week - have been so busy wheeling and dealing, time to take a breather and add it all up now! :hehe:

Hi filter! Ciao
So there are a lot of Italian "inside" here on NP
Thank u for your appreciation on my site, I'm happy that you like it. I'll try to keep it updated daily and I'll wait your sale to add it in my database.
Thanks!

 

[thetruman]

I can confirm that Antonio gives a fantastic contribution in Italy for the cause of domaining. His site (in italian) is informative, well written (and I like the layout as well).
Unfortunately in Italy domaining is on the VERY EARLY STAGES together with the penetration of internet that is still well behind other europeans countries (I wouldn t even mention North America). Basically there is no market: the 3 or 4 italian sites that have a sort of "market" are so poor. People asking 10000 euros for doilookgorgeous.it because they like it. For the little time that have spent on those sites I have seen just (ridicolous) offers and not even a buyer (people is not idiot after all). I know 1 forum that is pretty poor and on the same line (and very little people joined it). Antonio is aware of the forum I am talking about.
Sad but true.
(sorry I am off topic here...)

 

[italiandragon]

I`ll have to spend a day to be able to reply to everyone!

And I`m particularly happy to see an increasing number of italians here

Ciao!

I can confirm that Antonio gives a fantastic contribution in Italy for the cause of domaining. His site (in italian) is informative, well written (and I like the layout as well).
Unfortunately in Italy domaining is on the VERY EARLY STAGES together with the penetration of internet that is still well behind other europeans countries (I wouldn t even mention North America). Basically there is no market: the 3 or 4 italian sites that have a sort of "market" are so poor. People asking 10000 euros for doilookgorgeous.it because they like it. For the little time that have spent on those sites I have seen just (ridicolous) offers and not even a buyer (people is not idiot after all). I know 1 forum that is pretty poor and on the same line (and very little people joined it). Antonio is aware of the forum I am talking about.
Sad but true.

Marco...I think you or someone else (me when I have time) should start posting something about domains in the fionancial websites.

The most popular in Italy is:

www.finanzaonline.it

go to the forum , join in , it`s free and start a thread in the right section.....they are always looking to invest money.......think sooo many lost a bunch in FREEDOOMLAND , CIRIO , SSLAZIO , GIACOMELLI , E-PLANET AND MORE CESSO-STOCKS

And so, I think each non english speaker , should go in his/her local country websites , find the most popular financial/investment forums and inform them with domain sales info and few good links such:

www.dnjournal.com

www.namepros.com

www.namebio.com

www.domainnamewire.com

 

[classicwhois]

Hi all,
Let me say things are changing in italy, there are a lot of domainers working behind the scene, they don't like show in public what they do, coz of taxes.
Lot of LLL.com domains are in Italian hands, i tried to acquire these domain directly via email from the italian owners and... surprise they were domainers.
I know antonio and he's doing really a great job, on my own i'm trying to grow the right feeling in some forums that reguard domain stuff, it's not an easy process, it takes time and people have to acquire a good knowledge to compete with worldwide markets.
I'm often in chat with other Italo-Americans domainers, why don't you join in sometimes ?
Ciao a tutti

Luca

 

[DNK.it]

Hi all,
Let me say things are changing in italy, there are a lot of domainers working behind the scene, they don't like show in public what they do, coz of taxes.
Lot of LLL.com domains are in Italian hands, i tried to acquire these domain directly via email from the italian owners and... surprise they were domainers.
I know antonio and he's doing really a great job, on my own i'm trying to grow the right feeling in some forums that reguard domain stuff, it's not an easy process, it takes time and people have to acquire a good knowledge to compete with worldwide markets.
I'm often in chat with other Italo-Americans domainers, why don't you join in sometimes ?
Ciao a tutti

Luca

Ciao Luca! :hi:
Glad to see you here I didn't know that your nick was classicwhois on NP. I always enjoy to write with you in italian forums and yes, it isn't an easy work because there are a lot of newby everyday that look only at pr, bl etc But it's nice to see new people trying to lear domaining on regular basis.