please share exactly what quantitative domain investing is, by giving an example of a method you've found to be successful
and how you've used it to select the domain names, you have sold.
Thanks for the question
@biggie. I hope you have listened to the full interview, as it is always tough to summarize it in a few sentences. To use an analogy with conventional investing, data can help determine whether one should consider say emerging market bonds or small cap US stocks, based on your investment window, risk tolerance and other considerations. It is not that broad market data by itself could help you pick which specific small-cap stock. I mean data can help with that but usually with a different sort of analysis. As such the main focus in the podcast was not on using it for individual acquisitions.
Part of the time quantitative approaches in any field will tell you what
not to invest in, and I think that is important also. But to answer your specific question....
Here is a specific personal example from the past year resulting in a sale as you requested. It is an example where quantitative analysis helped me with both acquisition and pricing decisions.
Up until about 14 months ago I had never personally invested in an .org. Nor had I ever invested in a mixed mode domain name (like NNWord or LLNNN etc.) in any extension. I was considering whether .org made sense to invest in because if you look at all the names sold it seems so dominated by .com.
But really the key questions is not exclusively the total number of sales in the TLD, but the probability of sale and the likely sales price (along with annual holding cost). I've mentioned that model a few places but one is in
this NameTalent post.
So I did a quantitative analysis first just looking at the entire .org sales record using NameBio (in last couple of years because analysis indicated some gentle changes) and used Dofo to find the number of .org for sale. These gave me an industry wide probability number, and also some information for the second number. I mentally can adjust these taking into account how I try to sell and that I tend to price cheap. I compared the rates and prices to .com and the overall domain market. I will spare the details as all covered on
NamePros in this thread. And, somewhat surprisingly to me at the time, the sell-through rate was actually higher in .org than in .com (my numbers a year ago were a bit different but same pattern as I found in the more complete and recent analysis).
Now I also looked at prices from the analysis. In general .org cuts off at a lower upper price (clearly exceptions) - not nearly as many really high sales but mainly in the low to high $$$ range. That analysis (more details than I have written up) suggested probable price ranges, while recognizing the venue-bias of NameBio for such information.
Then I tackled the mixed mode question. For that I looked at both .com and .org. It is tough to do since so many possibilities so I mainly looked at sales in NameBio starting with a number, since that is what I was considering acquiring. I don't regard this as definitive but it seemed to me that mixed mode are perhaps selling better now than 5 years ago. No one take this as more than a hint of a trend. If I feel more positive with the stats, sometime I will write it up.
Anyway, I did invest in my first four .org about 14 months ago, and one of them was a mixed-mode domain starting with a number (I of course did an analysis of prior sales ending with that word, which similar names were available, TLDs registered, use possibilities, etc.). I also tried one mixed mode .com. I hand-regged after research on many possibilities (I considered about 35 possibilities, as I recall, for the 4 .org I chose).
The mixed mode .org one sold about 9 months after I acquired it. Yes, just low $$$ but even after marketplace commission it was about 80x my cost on that name since I had no renewal costs and got a deal on original registration (I
like to save money on domains 
). I don't wish to post the name here as I don't know the end-user and it may be a domainer but if you, or anyone else, wishes to DM me I will give you the link to verify sale provided you agree not to post the name in this thread. I also sold one of the other of my four .org for $$$+ as well within the year (but to a domainer active on NamePros so I am not sharing details of that sale at all as I presume he hopes to get far more for it).
To summarize....
- Quantitative analysis showed me that .org sell-through rates are decent. That influenced my decision to try some .org at hand-reg costs.
- Semi-quantitative analysis suggested that while mixed-mode domain names don't sell that frequently, they are maybe doing better than in the past.
- Quantitative analysis suggested to me the pricing level for this mixed-mode .org. I did a NameBio search of .org sales starting with a number, ordered it by price, tried to find where on the list I would place mine in terms of quality, and then originally priced it there. I subsequently reduced the price prior to the actual sale.
- I sold the domain (and in fact another .org) for about 80x what I paid for them.
I would add one caveat to those reading this. I am replying to Biggie's request for a specific personal example where quantitative thinking helped and the name quickly sold. So I gave an example. But don't over-generalize this. Yes I had 40% sell-through rate on .org in less than a year
, but small number statistics mean nothing necessarily - I have a bunch of 0% as well
. Also, remember to stay up to date as things change. The recent .org registry sale has me wondering what it means long-term for the TLD. And no, I did not rush out getting more mixed mode domains (and still have the com for sale), although did add a few. Nor have I piled on to .org, but I did add a few but still less than 10, even considering the 2 I sold and 1 I dropped from the original 4.
I hope I have provided what you wished, Biggie. Feel free to DM me if you want the link to the sale. Thank you for the question.
Have a nice day,
Bob
Edit: I might add one other way that quantitative analysis informed my decision. When I reduced the price, that too was based on considerations of holding costs (and above equation) and also the number of sales in the low $$$ (and even below $$$) of broadly similar names. I probably could have got 4 or 5x more by holding it for many years, but it seemed to me the potential gain vs risk was not what I wanted.
