How does one estimate a drop date these days?

[harkster]

I am looking at a name which expired on April 17 (Network Solutions). I used to be able to get close but things have changed so much. By my old method I have it would drop on or about July 1. Is not a name a 'normal' domainer would go after so I expect it to drop (collectibles business -- owners retired & did not renew). If it does drop I want to reg it for the little bit of traffic it attracts.

When should I start watching drop lists?

 

[earn100]

depends on REGISTRA now days.
Your chance of getting a name without paying a backordere fee is may be 1 in 10000000
Network Solutions backorder company is snapnames. So if its popular name most likely sombody has backordered the name their.
Good luck

 

[harkster]

depends on REGISTRA now days.
Your chance of getting a name without paying a backordere fee is may be 1 in 10000000
Network Solutions backorder company is snapnames. So if its popular name most likely sombody has backordered the name their.
Good luck

Can't argue with you there. I would be quite supprised to see this name backordered. No OVT/WT, bad Google, the com is only ext reg'd etc. Not worth the 60 buck SnapNames fee to me. I would aquire if I can get for about reg fee.

It is listed in a large number of speciality directories which should draw a few visits a month. They only bought and sold the best of the best & had a large collector base & I would love to attract a few of them.

 

[AdoptableDomains]

Network Solutions would either drop to a snapnames backorder or should follow the standard drop cycle if there are no backorders, which is probably 60 to 90 days from expire date.

However, even an obscure name that has verifiable links, SE listing, or traffic may be of value to someone else as well. Don't count on anything dropping anymore unless it's pure trash.