#BlackSwanTechnology - Investing before the industry takes off

[VURG]

My definition of emerging industries is:

#UnicornTechnology - Emerging Multi-Billion dollar technology
#BlackSwanTechnology - Emerging Multi-Trillion dollar technology (Based on Nassim Nicholas Taleb's definition of black swans being high impact rare events)

I have spent the last 20 years studying for potential black swans. I am passionate about trying to predict the market before it happens. Understanding black swans allows you to buy domains for reg fee that emerge into domains worth thousands of dollars. As a trained statistician, I believe that my statistical training gives me an edge in seeing opportunities before others. There are about 15 companies that could be considered Black Swans (https://companiesmarketcap.com/aud/) based on Australian currency valuations.

For me, the appeal of studying emerging black swans is the huge return on investment that you can make on domains.

Obvious emerging and existing Black Swans are:

• Robotics
• Artificial Intelligence
• Cryptocurrency
• Search Engines
• Social Media
• Finance Tools

I am particularly interested in the more speculative opportunities. Does anyone else study black swan opportunities?

 

[Kyle Tully]

Over the past 20 years which black swans did you identify early and what names were you able to pickup and then sell as the event’s impact was realised?

 

[VURG]

Nothing yet. I was more of a short domain flipper in my early domaining days and I had a lot more time and money invested then. I guess I have been very disorganised with domaining for a while. I only work with a small budget as I aim to do more developing than domaining. My track record in the last decade hasn't been great.

My main focus is #BuyerCentricGroupShopping. That is the Black Swan that I think hasn't been cracked yet. I believe that I have a good strategy for a voting system to give buyers more power. I believe that #GroupShopping businesses now are all #SellerCentric but I believe that #BuyerCentric models are the ones that take you out of the #MultiBillion dollar markets into the #MultiTrillion dollar markets.

I am building my domain collection around Group Shopping as I expect it to become massive in the 2030's.

 

[Mustaphadev]

Black swans are good steps to take in the domaining industry or other business models. I first heard the term "Black Swans" in" Never Split The Difference" Book, and I am eager to dive deep into event predictions that come in the future, especially in the tech industry.
How did you find that book, "Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb"?

Mustapha

 

[VURG]

I haven't read all of the black swan book but I do own it and have read bits of it. It is a great book.

One area of technology that I am very interested in is nanowire technology. It has huge potential in reducing transportation and accommodation costs. The fact that it can be near invisible can be problematic. I haven't got any domains related to it as I like a more focused portfolio around group shopping.

I see in domaining the value of healthy debating over which technologies have the potential to be black swans and which are too speculative. I am not particularly interested in flying cars as I see the high fuel costs as problematic. I see them as luxuries that don't have a large enough market at the moment. However, I see potential in building cities in the sky and this would make flying cars have a more significant function.

In terms of the next fifteen years, I see robots, AI & group shopping to be the big emerging black swans. The issue with black swans is timing. If you underestimate how long it takes to get the technology off the ground, you end up paying huge domain renewal fees.

 

[Kyle Tully]

I haven’t read the book but my understanding of a black swan event is more something that wasn’t really predictable because it’s so rare/unlikely.

IMO much more money to be made selling into existing and emerging trends rather than trying to pick black swans.

 

[VURG]

Hi Kyle, I am just clarifying that I have developed a more comprehensive understanding that my IP in #GroupShoppingTechnology would be better defined as #BarterTechnology as it helps improve liquidity in shopping and doesn't necessarily need standard currency to work. This technology has the potential of harmonising with #RealWordAsset technology in cryptocurrency. While I don't understand the need for blockchain, I can see merits on harmonising with blockchain. I see that the #RWA community are already existing and my expertise in expanding the technology into the shopping environment would be seen as valuable to the #RWACommunity as I have specialised in areas that may help accelerate the technology forward. (In Namepros terms, accelerate the growth of the RWA domain name community.)

The debate that I have opened today is to whether my twist on the technology will facilitate faster growth on RWA assets or not. I don't know the answer as to whether #BarterTechnology harmonises or polarises with #RWA blockchain technology. That is why I see Namepros as being a valuable place for me to bring this discussion here to work out with other domainers the risks and opportunities to harmonise #BarterTechnology with #RWABlockchainTechnology. I believe that I am approaching an existing trend with new language and the new language that I add to the #RWANarrative may introduce the possibility that words I add to this narrative contribute to the demand for future domain names.

I can now see a harmony of how my narrative of business models has the potential to marry with the #RWADomainers but I can also see a potential conflict of interest. I can see how I am approaching a similar idea from a different angle and there is potential valuable intelligence sharing that the #RWADomainers and #BarterDomainers can gain through healthy debating practices over this technology.

This is what I have tried to bring up through this thread. Sometimes domainers can see the same swan through different angles. By debating about this we are sharing intelligence that can help identify what the better domains are. Sometimes the more obscure people like me have a longer story that's harder to understand. If I am wrong, my intelligence is worthless but if I am right, I am sharing intelligence on Namepros for free that I could make a lot of money by keeping it secret and sharing for a fee.