discuss Analyzing the sold domains for preparing yourself: Tip

[Arpit131]

Do you look at the recently sold domain names and its price to analyze the market, get a feel of how a domain name is valued and what must be the thought process of the buyer to buy at those prices?

Also, the reason why the seller priced it at a certain price?

I think over the years, I have read and analyzed daily domain sales on platform like NameBio to develop a feel of the price and domain name valuation and that has helped me quite a lot to price my domain names while outbounding.

I am no expert but I have come to learn certain things just by reading through the daily domain sales. I think if you are starting out or stuck, reading this can greatly improve your domain name acquisition, valuation and overall feel.

What do you think?
Do you follow daily domain sales?
Has it helped?

 

[1Darko]

I'm daily in the sales stats and still sometimes struggling to determine the value of a domain. The fact is that we are dealing in all kind of market niches and you really have to be educated and up to date with the trends.
But that is why I love domaining!

 

[Kuffy]

I'm starting to do this now that I am trying to be a serious seller.

 

[alcy]

defitely good idea to check namebio sales.
especialy for new domainers
sure beats using stupid apparaisal tools

in time, you will get hang of things and be able to negoatiate better and valuate your domains better. as well as see that most namebio sales make good sense. cheers.
imo

 

[Kate]

Domainers must follow reported sales.
If you don't know what sells, how do you know what to buy ?

In fact, if all domainers paid attention to the market they wouldn't be buying all those hopeless regs we're seeing on a daily basis.

 

[Chris Hydrick]

How to know when following true sales vs manipulated sales?

OR

How to know if a sale is 100% completed and paid VS what's just being reported, without confirmed payment?

 

[1Darko]

How to know when following true sales vs manipulated sales?

OR

How to know if a sale is 100% completed and paid VS what's just being reported, without confirmed payment?

Sometimes in life you have to follow the 80-20 rule.
I'm 80% confident that 80% of the reported sales data is true!

 

[1Darko]

If maybe someone is interested in 80-20:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle

 

[Arca]

Domainers must follow reported sales.
If you don't know what sells, how do you know what to buy ?

When I look at lists of aftermarket sales there are always tons of really confusing sales, domains that seemingly don't make any sense whatsoever, even upon further research of possible meaning in other languages etc. More than showing what sells, it often also just shows that practically anything can sell.

When I started out domaining I remember looking through DNJournal's sales lists, and thinking to myself, wow so many of these names are garbage, I can hand reg names that are just as good and make a fortune! It turned out to not be as easy as the sales lists seemed to indicate. So the sales lists can also give inexperienced domainers misperceptions of what kinds of domains have a high likelihood of selling for a reasonable price. I feel the sales lists gave me a false sense of security in terms of hand regging "ok" names at the time.

 

[Brands.International]

It is not only about WHAT sells, it is also about WHO buys at the moment

 

[Bob Hawkes]

I read Namebio, all the way to the bottom, each day. I wish we had a similar thing that included sales below $100 also. Each week I check the new weekly top sales report from DNJournal. I also check SoldDomains and DnPric.es as well from time to time, and follow various people on Twitter. I like NamePros since we often learn more about how a sale went down, rather than just the value and date and where sold.

I feel that it is critical to do this (stay up to date with sales and prices), but that is only part of the story. Making an analogy with conventional investing - yes it is important to see what prices stocks and ETFs are at, but even more important to look at trends, and to read what is happening in the niches that you hold domain names in, so that hopefully you can be in front of the pack.

Thanks for starting this very worthwhile discussion.

 

[Ategy]

It's important to remember that most domain sales are based on a random business owner starting up and needing a name .. or even an existing company looking for a better name.

No domainer with even a modest sized portfolio will ever sell 100% of their domains ... The key is to have the best possible understand of those random factors to improve your odds which in turn go to improve your sales ratio.

I've been more serious about domaining since fall 2016 (before that I just bought domains for potential future development .. some of which I bought because they could have value .. so there was some "domaining" before) .. and every single day for the last 15 months or so I have marked an average of about 150 domains filtered down from the many thousands of domains I've looked through.

Among those 150 per day are domains I really have no intention of buying .. but think are good enough that they could be bought. I specifically added them to my list to learn. Obviously it isn't at all the same thing as end user retail sales which can be checked out via DNjournal, Namebio and others .. but I've found that doing the hard work of going through the names day after day and seeing some of the stuff other domainers have grabbed (or specifically didn't grab) has really made me better as a domainer. Beyond what sells or not is the "how much" .. because some great domains do indeed get missed (and can turn into amazing closeout buys) .. but the moment there are a few bids on a domain they aren't hidden anymore and the true (wholesale) demand comes into focus.

I think they say it takes 10,000 hours to "master a skill" .. so in an industry or profession to be considered a professional you really need to do the work. And while I've put in tons of hours list scanning .. I think a good chunk of hours also should be put into seeing what sells and for how much (among other things important in domaining) .. looking back I probably should be checking those sales reports a bit more than I currently do!

 

[Kate]

It is true that many sales are one of a kind, so even accurate sales data has to be considered with circumspection.
But there are some patterns to be noticed.
For example, it is pretty obvious that you'd rather invest in .com than in .as domains.
Also hyphenated, multiple-hyphenated domains, 3-worders or more are less likely to sell. Misspelling or negative names are not very much in demand. Some keywords may be trending eg drones cryptocurrency etc. Random letters are not sought after, nor are meaningless combinations. Some niches consume domain names than others more than others etc etc etc. If you buy without doing research it's wishful thinking.

 

[Bob Hawkes]

You have an art of putting lots of good advice concisely, @Kate!

Of course these are guidelines and there are always exceptions. As part of a different discussion a month or so ago I researched just how often hyphenated domains are sold. Results below. Of course the key question is how many hyphenated domains are for sale (I don't know) - if it is about 2% of total, then they sell proportionally at the same rate. (data as of Dec 9, 2017 but probably still pretty accurate)

"This interesting discussion prompted me to check out some stats using the Namebio database. If I include only .com which sold for more than $1000, there were 147,823, of which 2997 used hyphens. This is about 2.0%. If I make the price level $200, the stats are pretty similar, with 6420 hyphenated .com out of a 298,720 sales total.

I think both 'sides' can use these stats to bolster their case. Yes, most domain name sales for reasonable amounts do not involve hyphens. But with almost 3000 sales over $1000 that is a multi million dollar industry (over the length of the database).

I know that Germany and especially eastern Europe are keen on hyphens, and the US is negative on them."

 

[karmaco]

I am most interested in end user sales and pricing. I do read sites that cover sales but since so much of it is aftermarket sales or expiry sales I don’t put huge amounts of weight in those prices.

What a domain investor is willing to pay is not that important to me. Also the same inner circle of people’s sales seem to be covered everywhere.

The great unknown is all the private sales that are not being reported except some here at NamePros. I do follow our reported sales thread. If I want to know how to price I look up what similar domains are listed for and use my own judgement.

 

[domeen]

I basically don`t follow
I don`t follow any trends either. I think if its a trend, its too late to get in!
You got to have the domains already before it gets a trend.
I got most of my names in 2002-2007, I had a lot 4 letter Chips, I had some VR names I had some AI names I had even some MR names, I had some crypto names.

You can get rich, if you do something diferent, you can`t get rich if you copy others. I mean You can get, but then you have to be extremly lucky

 

[urljunky]

sure beats using stupid apparaisal tools

How dare you call appraisal tools stupid! they are only as dumb as the person who made them. Or as smart as the person who made them. How many new domainers punch a name at GD and buy it just because they see the value?
And you have to watch the sales. What I do is throw out the super big crazy one of a time sales throw out the super low drops/expired or under priced ones then average out the rest in that particular keyword combination or niche that you are aiming for. And viola! you got some numbers! than you just put it up for make an offer and sell it when you need the money. j/k and the last part.
you have to have information to make educated guess. without info you are just guessing.

 

[Kate]

I am most interested in end user sales and pricing. I do read sites that cover sales but since so much of it is aftermarket sales or expiry sales I don’t put huge amounts of weight in those prices.

What a domain investor is willing to pay is not that important to me. Also the same inner circle of people’s sales seem to be covered everywhere.

You've touched an important point. Many purchases are from domainers, so they inflate the perception of the market. The volume of sales is not backed up by end user demand.

So one more criterion would be to look at who bought the domain and for what purpose
If you could easily filter out domainer purchases and only keep end user acquisitions, the lists would be significantly shorter.

Also, newcomers to the industry tend to overestimate the demand for aftermarket domains. Even assuming reported sales are the tip of the iceberg, the ratio of aftermarket sales vs handregs is ultra-tiny. So it is important to realize that unless your names are markedly above average, the odds that you will make repeated sales are remote.

 

[Arpit131]

I'm daily in the sales stats and still sometimes struggling to determine the value of a domain. The fact is that we are dealing in all kind of market niches and you really have to be educated and up to date with the trends.
But that is why I love domaining!

Can't agree more on this! On point! Knowledge is power. Provides the leverage to judge what's underpriced, what to buy and all that!

I'm starting to do this now that I am trying to be a serious seller.

Yes. Make it a habit if domaining is not a hobby for you but a business.

 

[Arpit131]

How to know when following true sales vs manipulated sales?

OR

How to know if a sale is 100% completed and paid VS what's just being reported, without confirmed payment?

They are mostly true. I trust Namebio on this.
Also, when going for a buy or a sell, check for the keywords. That gives a general idea of it all.

When I look at lists of aftermarket sales there are always tons of really confusing sales, domains that seemingly don't make any sense whatsoever, even upon further research of possible meaning in other languages etc. More than showing what sells, it often also just shows that practically anything can sell.

When I started out domaining I remember looking through DNJournal's sales lists, and thinking to myself, wow so many of these names are garbage, I can hand reg names that are just as good and make a fortune! It turned out to not be as easy as the sales lists seemed to indicate. So the sales lists can also give inexperienced domainers misperceptions of what kinds of domains have a high likelihood of selling for a reasonable price. I feel the sales lists gave me a false sense of security in terms of hand regging "ok" names at the time.

They will need to do this over a period of time and generalize it and develop a feel for it.

 

[Chris Hydrick]

They are mostly true. I trust Namebio on this.

I trust that @Michael and team do their best to keep a clean inventory.

But that doesn't mean there isn't holes in the reporting process, and/or that it's full proof to market manipulation.

There are a few different forms of 'fake sales':

(1) Sale does not complete: either buyer didn't pay, or seller didn't deliver.

(2) Sale to a friend or business partner to have a sales record, and/or for it to be seen by other (pays venue commission)

(3) Sales between multiple people intent on manipulating the price of a certain niche. ie If 100 (6N.com) sales are reported at $300, then the market may show 6N.com is getting hot, and perhaps purchases at less than $100 would be a "steal". Also, does higher 6N.com prices mean higher prices for 5N.com?​

It would be nice if NameBio only reported sales that complete. Granted it may be difficult to know what actually completed, but then again, if it can't be confirmed and/or is awaiting to be confirmed, shouldn't that be notated with an asterisk or something?

Also, when going for a buy or a sell, check for the keywords. That gives a general idea of it all.

What about patterns?

ie CVCV, CVVC, --- and numeric patterns AABABC?

 

[Arpit131]

I trust that @Michael and team do their best to keep a clean inventory.

But that doesn't mean there isn't holes in the reporting process, and/or that it's full proof to market manipulation.

There are a few different forms of 'fake sales':

(1) Sale does not complete: either buyer didn't pay, or seller didn't deliver.

(2) Sale to a friend or business partner to have a sales record, and/or for it to be seen by other (pays venue commission)

(3) Sales between multiple people intent on manipulating the price of a certain niche. ie If 100 (6N.com) sales are reported at $300, then the market may show 6N.com is getting hot, and perhaps purchases at less than $100 would be a "steal". Also, does higher 6N.com prices mean higher prices for 5N.com?​

It would be nice if NameBio only reported sales that complete. Granted it may be difficult to know what actually completed, but then again, if it can't be confirmed and/or is awaiting to be confirmed, shouldn't that be notated with an asterisk or something?



What about patterns?

ie CVCV, CVVC, --- and numeric patterns AABABC?

I believe that is still a good indicator even if we take the glitch of fake sales into consideration. It would form a small portion of the entire thing altogether.

I don't deal in them but cvcv or cvvc are great and we could wait for end users for them, more than looking at the patterns in those kind of names.