Provided that the current registrant doesnt renew the domain, consider the following: -
1. If it appears at their auction site and you win the auction there, you will have got the domain that you wanted.
2. If you decide that you want to wait until it drops because you dont want to pay $60+ for the name and no one wins the auction and you allow it to go in to PENDINGDELETE status, there is no guarantee that someone else wont swoop it up and keep it for themselves.