discuss Will the Coronavirus increase demand for domain names?

[Doron Vermaat]

As some of you know I have been living and working in Hong Kong for quite a while.

Hong Kong is a so-called special administrative region with over seven million residents and sits right up against China's Guangdong Province, which has had more than 1000 cases of the virus. As schools were closing, everyone on the street started wearing surgical masks and people started to clear supermarket shelves, my wife and I decided it was time for an extended vacation and we left the city with our daughter and dog for the Netherlands a couple of weeks ago.

With the virus now spreading across the US and many European countries reporting increasing numbers of cases it has become obvious that this will become a global health crisis.

Now, personally I am not too worried about the virus itself, but more so about the impact the outbreak will have on the global economy and people's livelihood - Hong Kong's economy, for example, has been dragged down significantly by the outbreak. And a suffering economy is bad for business and what's bad for business should be bad for the demand for aftermarket domains, right?

A Skype chat with a fellow domain name nerd today got me thinking however as he mentioned that the current situation should increase domain values and drive more demand for the middle to the lower end of the market because the outbreak of the virus has given enormous rise to remote work, e-commerce and the use of remote tools to hold meetings, e-schooling and much more.

It's most likely too early to tell but personally I had a very good February with 6 end-user sales, averaging $4,100 per domain, including a .hk domain name that sold to a local entrepreneur in the midst of the crisis. I know many other investors who had a very profitable month as well.

So let's discuss, do you think the Coronavirus outbreak will increase the demand for domain names, even if the economy takes a dive?

 

[Ategy]

And the Fed is going to try to save the day. Again.

Lowering rates by .5% isn't going to re-open factories in China. As time goes on and more things close it's going to be a disaster on the global supply chain.

Even if this will certainly not be the worst pandemic in history, the potential way it's spreading will likely have an economic impact on the world the likes we haven't seen in modern history.

Lots of schools closing here in King County, WA starting this week.

If indeed there is so called "communal spread" in more and more locations it's really going to be a disaster. Hopefully the mortality rate goes down a bit more .. but ultimately it's not deaths that will kill the economy .. it's going to be all the preventional measures.

 

[Rob Monster]

Oops:

The .LIVE registry need to create a Zoom alternative -- bundle a .LIVE with a platform.

Development-wise, I think it could be ready in 30 days. Possibly less.

 

[Rob Monster]

Lowering rates by .5% isn't going to re-open factories in China. As time goes on and more things close it's going to be a disaster on the global supply chain.

Even if this will certainly not be the worst pandemic in history, the potential way it's spreading will likely have an economic impact on the world the likes we haven't seen in modern history.



If indeed there is so called "communal spread" in more and more locations it's really going to be a disaster. Hopefully the mortality rate goes down a bit more .. but ultimately it's not deaths that will kill the economy .. it's going to be all the preventional measures.

Yup, it is the quarantining, including self-imposed version, that is of greatest concern.

Most businesses are not positioned for this type of modus operandi.

For most domainers it is probably business as usual.

For large registrars with centralized call centers, it could become a problem.

A tremendous number of brick and mortar businesses will struggle to cross this chasm.

POTUS Trump has to somehow kick this can for another 8 months to get to election day. Dunno.

 

[King]

Media fear really, it's just a new strand of a cold virus...

 

[Doron Vermaat]

To me, personally, there's no question that domain sales (and registrations/renewals) will generally slow down as a result of this virus running rampant around the globe. For how long, who knows. My gut feeling is that from now, 2020 will generally be a VERY slow year for end user sales & sales between domainers. Hopefully I'm wrong

I think you might be right but I predict the digital economy will come out of this even stronger than before with an increased workforce having experienced the benefits of remote work, online meetings and e-commerce in general.

 

[Rob Monster]

Agreed -- not a huge believer in the epidemiology scare of a bad flu. It has likely been around for months.

However, that is not going to stop policy-makers to create disruption.

Time to brush up on the Hegelian Dialectics because I submit that there is an agenda being played out.

I will not be surprised if we see another 2008 style banking crisis leading to one world digital currency.

Here is the 54 year history of the 10 year US treasury yield:

It is heading to zero, or thereabouts.

Call me crazy but one thing is clear, and that is it is a good time to set aside normalcy bias.

 

[Ostrados]

I will not be surprised if we see another 2008 style banking crisis leading to one world digital currency.

Sounds like new world order agenda.

 

[lock]

If you believe coronavirus can be so destructive it influences industry it may mean your buyer is coughing and dying and cars dot com etc will expire due to owner dying and your back to a life where money and domains mean nothing.

 

[Rob Monster]

Sounds like new world order agenda.

It does have that vibe.

- Cashless society
- Forced quarantines
- Restrictions on travel
- Fearmongering propaganda
- Supply chain disruption

For now, the supply of free speech on the Internet can at least monitor the events.

I suspect that when Godaddy and CloudFlare start mass terminating customers, then you will know the real game is on. We had a little trial balloon in September 2018 and then again March 2019.

 

[Ostrados]

- Cashless society

The funny thing is that I read this article yesterday:
Cash could be spreading the coronavirus, warns the World Health Organization

And this:

Avoid cash payments as coronavirus outbreak spreads, WHO says
The World Health Organization is recommending that people stop using cash in favor of "contactless" payments to prevent any spread of coronavirus.

 

[Rob Monster]

The funny thing is that I read this article yesterday:
Cash could be spreading the coronavirus, warns the World Health Organization

And this:

And apparently this shocks you.

For years, cash was great because governments could issue worthless fiat paper as legal tender.

Along comes the digital age and now that worthless paper can be surveilled and taxed.

And for those who think there is anonymity in cryptos, I hate to break it to you, but not quite. The very nature of the Blockchain is to be an algorithmic audit trail from cradle to grave.

For those who clear domain transactions in Masterbucks, that is still private. It is a scrip currency for domain investors. Anyone can receive them and redeem them. Verified persons can be approved to send them.

No question, these are very interesting times.

 

[Compassion]

Media fear really, it's just a new strand of a cold virus...

Evidence shows the flu shot actually increases the likelihood of Coronavirus infection.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31607599


Acupuncturist shares how Chinese medicine beats COVID - 19

https://patch.com/california/losaltos/local-acupuncturist-shares-how-chinese-medicine-beats-covid-19

 

[namemarket]

Show attachment 146775
It is heading to zero, or thereabouts. Call me crazy but one thing is clear, and that is it is a good time to set aside normalcy bias.

I recall in 1980 time frame savings account yields and loans rate were almost 20%. It is real hard to believe interest rates have been on a steady decline for 40-years and lately going even lower.

 

[Doron Vermaat]

@EJS published his thought on "How the Coronavirus Will Impact Domain Investors" and besides the post itself some comments are worth highlighting:

Jamie Zoch:

I think this is when a company needs to put its foot to the floor. A LOT of things are moving online right now, so it’s a shining time for companies to seize the opportunity. Yes, people use online schooling already but a lot of people are going to experience it for the first time and may just really like it. Conferences are being moved online instead of in-person. Tech, the tools and services offered have a lot of opportunities now and in the near future. Telemedicine can shine. Online shopping can explode. New brands, products and services are often created in situations like this and I really see this situation as a good thing for domain name owners and the people that want to help in innovative ways, solve problems and be helpful. A lot of this is going to take place, online, which requires a domain name.

Logan Flatt

I haven’t seen any slowdown. Sold $10K in names in February. This morning, sold a .ai name for $32,500 on a payment plan after receiving the first payment (we’ll see how the rest go). Perhaps the slow down in business activity has given business folks more time to surf the internet and see domain names they’d like to acquire for their companies. Also, domain names are rarely budgeted-for capital expenditures — in my experience most domain names sold to corporations get paid out of the CIO or CMO’s operating expense budget on a whim.

Rod Atkinson

I have a little over 1,000 names also, and I have definitely seen few offers in the last several weeks. Had a $4500 sale about 3 weeks ago, a 10k offer on a domain I was asking 75k for, the offeror cited coronavirus for the reason he wouldn’t go higher. I had a price inquiry from a broker on another name, but that’s been it since that sale other than people not knowing it’s a domain sale lander.

Mark Thorpe

If there is a global recession because of Coronavirus, domains, stocks, bonds etc will all take a hit.
Only difference from the 2008 recession to now for domains, is that more people and businesses are online now and more still coming online. So, domains probably won’t be hurt as bad as they were in 2009-2010 IMO.

 

[Bob Hawkes]

Thanks for the thread and I agree for most part with your take on it @Doron Vermaat . I think there may be opportunities for domains, particularly as you say at the more modest priced end of market within budget of those who work digitally alone or in tiny companies.

It is hard to say how long-term the global economy downfall will be, but if extreme, and definitely the last month overall has been bad, I think it will pull the domain market overall down somewhat. That has happened, with a delay, in previous major economic downturns.

I think the most long-term impact might be that people will choose to do things in different ways and that will persist long term. Among things that will be most impacted I think are cruise vacations, conventional conferences, sporting and music events, etc.

But remote working, learning online, outdoor vacations, online networking, online conferences, etc. will all gain in ways that may well last for many years.

What will be the impact on public transport and some of the environmental practices we have become used to? Not sure.

I think more people may long-term be sensitized by this to choose to live in less crowded places. I see the nature of both tourism and living possibly changing long-term. We have been in past decades very much in the era of huge cities. Will that possibly balance back somewhat?

While some see opportunities in domains related to healthy living and protection, I am less sure.

Thanks to all for a great thread on an important topic.

Bob

 

[Corey]

Cheers
Corey

 

[Elisha.O]

Nice thread. One thing is certain: once this pandemic starts getting subdued, the domain industry will begin to take a boost.

 

[Ategy]

Wow .. a lot has evolved even in the last week. We're getting very close to the critical mass / tipping point of no return. Still a chance .. but not a good one. If you read one article on the subject, I suggest this one:

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/6/21161234/coronavirus-covid-19-science-outbreak-ends-endemic-vaccine

The .LIVE registry need to create a Zoom alternative -- bundle a .LIVE with a platform.
Development-wise, I think Epik could have it ready in 30 days. Possibly less.

While I'm sure certain tools already exist, the really big demand will likely be for remote learning in the case where by July it looks likely that schools will not be opening their doors in September. The education sector already has had huge disruption over the last 5-10 years .. but next is that same disruption on a huge global scale. Combine remote learning with enhancements in 3rd world internet access infrastructure (Toki? / @Rob Monster), and this tragedy could actually have at least one positive outcome with some much educational content suddenly becoming scaleable into areas where it can make a huge difference and impact.

POTUS Trump has to somehow kick this can for another 8 months to get to election day. Dunno.

There's nothing any leader could have done to stop this 100%. Nobody can blame Trump for Covid-19, but Trump most certainly has dropped the ball on this. The USA should have been much more serious about even the possibility this explodes at least 5-6 weeks ago. While insufficient action over the last few weeks might only translate into a couple hundred more cases today than there otherwise would have been .. those few hundred cases could potentially turn into thousands and tens/hundreds of thousands+.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/t...h-6cntLGDDvH-6ui7tcVxu1rDdjdlvDb0SWFJxNviv9gw

 

[frank-germany]

Many conspiracy geeks have said that it's too much of a coincidence that this virus came out of Wuhan after the protests in Hong Kong. I don't know what relation it would have though.

I think it might have a relation to the sun showing up more often lately

 

[Rob Monster]

I started to write this post last night but debated to post it.

The X-factor to watch might just be the capital markets, and notably China.

As of today, the markets are looking extremely fragile.

The US 10 year yield is now under 0.5%. This is crazytown:

It actually dropped to 0.38% briefly today and now back around 0.5%.

It would not be the first time that monetary systems failed (See Genesis 47) -- this pattern just repeats.

One of these days, perhaps even someday soon, money will fail. So the preppers might not be entirely crazy this time around though I am a bigger fan of spiritual prepping than emergency supplies.

As contxt, here is a related commentary from 2016 that specifically anticipates the Black Swan pandemic scenario that humanity is currently navigating:

https://www.garynorth.com/public/15075.cfm

In the meantime, I can confirm that some transactions are being put on hold by customers. We just had one now for 10,000 Euros go pencil up. Customer in Slovenia said:

So, yes, this will have impact. Those who can adapt will be fine but this is looking like an industrial strength Black Swan and might want to prepare accordingly.

 

[bmugford]

I think there is likely to be a pullback across the board, not just with domains but the entire economy.

If that happens though it will open up many buying opportunities.

Brad

 

[Ivan Rasskazov]

I think there is likely to be a pullback across the board, not just with domains but the entire economy.

If that happens though it will open up many buying opportunities.

Brad

Provided you have dry powder and are solvent, yes. If your cashflows are swept up in the pullback, then you become the opportunity for others.

 

[Rob Monster]

I think there is likely to be a pullback across the board, not just with domains but the entire economy.

If that happens though it will open up many buying opportunities.

Brad

Sure, with mass layoffs, canceled orders, and tighter liquidity, cash is king.

At the same time, there will be tremendous number of retail customers who find themselves thrust into the digital economy because the brick and mortar economy becomes impaired.

It could be quite a ride.

 

[bmugford]

At the same time, there will be tremendous number of retail customers who find themselves thrust into the digital economy because the brick and mortar economy becomes impaired.

It could be quite a ride.

It could work that way also. If there are layoffs, or people just don't want to go out all that much they might switch to an online business. It could drive demand for domains that way.

Who knows.

Brad

 

[brandsly]

Just want to chip in some personal experience. In February I've had the highest number of sales, although not in terms of dollar amount, but beginning of the year (Jan, Feb, March) has always been the strongest months for me in the past few years. However, this month there has not been any sales to date (I did reject a few offers, but that is what I always do - I don't usually offer over 10% discount, it's a trade off, I might lose some sales but I also see it as a numbers game so I never worry if I lose a sale due to staying firm on the price. A certain percentage will always come through over the longer term), a few agreed transactions also went silent.

I'm a big data person, I invest and build my business model based on data, and again, I see it as a numbers game, so on average, I always get an end user sale every 2-3 days as I own a decently large portfolio. There were a few rare months where I didn't get any sale for the first 10 days of the month, but they always catch up, and 3-4 sales come in a row right away. I don't normally think much about it but due to the current situation, I start to think that there could be an overall sell through rate decline. I guess time will tell. If that proves to be the case over the next few months, I plan to continue buying at the rate that I currently do and keep the current prices as well. My rationale is that recessions don't last forever, and nothing can fall to absolutely nothing (or it'll really be the end of the world). Even if my sell through rate declines by 50%, I can still cover all my renewals comfortably, pay for my fairly large life and business expenses and may or may not need to go negative cash flow on the buying depending on how much I buy, and when this is all over, I will be at a much better place. So this is my thoughts and plan, will try to update in the future. My point is, you should have a plan in place, know your numbers and data, think long term and prepare for the worst.