discuss Will the Coronavirus increase demand for domain names?

[Doron Vermaat]

As some of you know I have been living and working in Hong Kong for quite a while.

Hong Kong is a so-called special administrative region with over seven million residents and sits right up against China's Guangdong Province, which has had more than 1000 cases of the virus. As schools were closing, everyone on the street started wearing surgical masks and people started to clear supermarket shelves, my wife and I decided it was time for an extended vacation and we left the city with our daughter and dog for the Netherlands a couple of weeks ago.

With the virus now spreading across the US and many European countries reporting increasing numbers of cases it has become obvious that this will become a global health crisis.

Now, personally I am not too worried about the virus itself, but more so about the impact the outbreak will have on the global economy and people's livelihood - Hong Kong's economy, for example, has been dragged down significantly by the outbreak. And a suffering economy is bad for business and what's bad for business should be bad for the demand for aftermarket domains, right?

A Skype chat with a fellow domain name nerd today got me thinking however as he mentioned that the current situation should increase domain values and drive more demand for the middle to the lower end of the market because the outbreak of the virus has given enormous rise to remote work, e-commerce and the use of remote tools to hold meetings, e-schooling and much more.

It's most likely too early to tell but personally I had a very good February with 6 end-user sales, averaging $4,100 per domain, including a .hk domain name that sold to a local entrepreneur in the midst of the crisis. I know many other investors who had a very profitable month as well.

So let's discuss, do you think the Coronavirus outbreak will increase the demand for domain names, even if the economy takes a dive?

 

[Lox]

Feb/March 2020; Rebranding activities are slowing down along with a slowing in sales/subscriptions. Always the same ... once the industry/niche slowed down (production), the brand's problem became more obvious. Most Co. recognize the opportunity for continued growth in applying + approachable feeling (graphics, logo, video ads and back to the future ... radio/podcast/voice ), which help with strategically positioning the company better in the marketplace as a *genuine connotation / source of H2H B2C C2B interaction.

March 3-9 2020; Hand Registration / Re-Registration (drops) of domain names are +/- 50% down.

Regards

 

[Kassey Lee]

I'm a big data person, I invest and build my business model based on data, and again, I see it as a numbers game, so on average, I always get an end user sale every 2-3 days as I own a decently large portfolio.

Thanks for sharing the valuable lesson. Assuming a sell-through-rate of 2%, does it mean a portfolio size of about 5,000 to 10,000 domains will allow you to do the big data analysis and understand selling?

 

[brandsly]

Thanks for sharing the valuable lesson. Assuming a sell-through-rate of 2%, does it mean a portfolio size of about 5,000 to 10,000 domains will allow you to do the big data analysis and understand selling?

Sorry for the confusion. What I meant was that I'm big on data myself, that wasn't supposed to be "big data". I believe in sell through rates, statistics, I don't just gamble and invest without a strategy.

I only invest in brandables. As everyone know, brandable is highly subjective, however from the past few years, I think I've gained a decent understanding of what makes a good brandable name, as proven by my sales without doing any outbound or promotion, and I don't list much on other marketplaces. Most sales come through Afternic or Dan direct landing page. For me, I rely on available sales history data (namebio etc), my own experience and continuous learning, branding intuition, knowledge in various industries along with some algo and programs that I wrote to help myself select what I think are the right names. Then knowing that what I did was working, I just try my best to expand my portfolio at the same quality and hopefully improve even more over time with more experience, in order to maintain and hopefully increase that sell through rate. So I know what works for me, what I know, and what my sell through rate is that is all.

Anyways, this thread is not to dicuss brandable names or sell through rate or data. I just wanted to point out that sell through rates exist, and should be relatively stable over time for you, it depends on many factors, depends on the quality of your portfolio, your pricing strategy etc etc. Then unexpected factors like the virus situation could affect that sell through rate, and you will just have to readjust your expectations, sales prediction and future plans.

 

[.X.]

I think it really depends on how long it lasts.

for example, should the virus end here soon, the market could spike up due to celebration the virus is gone and business projections rise quickly.

the longer it lasts, the more it drowns out the specific domain name market IMO , should it last a year per say, recovery will take years IMO

It all depends on the length of time the virus stays active IMO

 

[WhoaDomain.com]

I think it might have a relation to the sun showing up more often lately

Haha. Nice nice.

 

[ThisandThat]

I think it really depends on how long it lasts.

for example, should the virus end here soon, the market could spike up due to celebration the virus is gone and business projections rise quickly.

the longer it lasts, the more it drowns out the specific domain name market IMO , should it last a year per say, recovery will take years IMO

It all depends on the length of time the virus stays active IMO

The general trend as observed in China and Singapore is its span of 45 days from beginning to peakout phase or the blowout phases and then taperout...going by that standard, US just completed the first 10 days and approx anothe 30 plus days of enduring and entrapment before it tapers off..so next 4 weeks all hell might break loose and the demand for masks, sanitizers , tissues and whatnot might skyrocket

 

[Doron Vermaat]

A relevant tweet from seed capital firm Y Combinator co-founder Paul Graham today:

"It may turn out that everyone (particularly students) being stuck at home causes net more good startups to be founded. Microsoft and Facebook were both started during Reading Period at Harvard, because that was when the founders had time to work on their own projects."

 

[Winfluence]

Screw you corona... I have only had one inquiry in the last 2 weeks... From a cheap CEO complaining that I regged his accidental drop. Times are dry. Can't wait for this to blow over...

 

[Sam]

My parking traffic is up 15%+, so perhaps increased internet traffic from people at home.

 

[Winfluence]

Screw you corona... I have only had one inquiry in the last 2 weeks... From a cheap CEO complaining that I regged his accidental drop. Times are dry. Can't wait for this to blow over...

And by blow over I mean the commotion, petrifying the economy, because the actual virus will likely be with us for quite a while..

 

[Doron Vermaat]

Just want to chip in some personal experience. In February I've had the highest number of sales, although not in terms of dollar amount, but beginning of the year (Jan, Feb, March) has always been the strongest months for me in the past few years. However, this month there has not been any sales to date (I did reject a few offers, but that is what I always do - I don't usually offer over 10% discount, it's a trade off, I might lose some sales but I also see it as a numbers game so I never worry if I lose a sale due to staying firm on the price. A certain percentage will always come through over the longer term), a few agreed transactions also went silent.

I'm a big data person, I invest and build my business model based on data, and again, I see it as a numbers game, so on average, I always get an end user sale every 2-3 days as I own a decently large portfolio. There were a few rare months where I didn't get any sale for the first 10 days of the month, but they always catch up, and 3-4 sales come in a row right away. I don't normally think much about it but due to the current situation, I start to think that there could be an overall sell through rate decline. I guess time will tell. If that proves to be the case over the next few months, I plan to continue buying at the rate that I currently do and keep the current prices as well. My rationale is that recessions don't last forever, and nothing can fall to absolutely nothing (or it'll really be the end of the world). Even if my sell through rate declines by 50%, I can still cover all my renewals comfortably, pay for my fairly large life and business expenses and may or may not need to go negative cash flow on the buying depending on how much I buy, and when this is all over, I will be at a much better place. So this is my thoughts and plan, will try to update in the future. My point is, you should have a plan in place, know your numbers and data, think long term and prepare for the worst.

Thanks for sharing W. After a very strong February (6 sales) I yet have to close my first sale of the month of March too and inquiries are down significantly. It's obvious now that the coronavirus has triggered a recession that was coming for a long time. It is going to be a challenging year but with challenges always comes opportunity too.

 

[Domain Monk]

Screw you corona... I have only had one inquiry in the last 2 weeks... From a cheap CEO complaining that I regged his accidental drop. Times are dry. Can't wait for this to blow over...

0 enquiries

 

[Domain Monk]

Sorry for the confusion. What I meant was that I'm big on data myself, that wasn't supposed to be "big data". I believe in sell through rates, statistics, I don't just gamble and invest without a strategy.

I only invest in brandables. As everyone know, brandable is highly subjective, however from the past few years, I think I've gained a decent understanding of what makes a good brandable name, as proven by my sales without doing any outbound or promotion, and I don't list much on other marketplaces. Most sales come through Afternic or Dan direct landing page. For me, I rely on available sales history data (namebio etc), my own experience and continuous learning, branding intuition, knowledge in various industries along with some algo and programs that I wrote to help myself select what I think are the right names. Then knowing that what I did was working, I just try my best to expand my portfolio at the same quality and hopefully improve even more over time with more experience, in order to maintain and hopefully increase that sell through rate. So I know what works for me, what I know, and what my sell through rate is that is all.

Anyways, this thread is not to dicuss brandable names or sell through rate or data. I just wanted to point out that sell through rates exist, and should be relatively stable over time for you, it depends on many factors, depends on the quality of your portfolio, your pricing strategy etc etc. Then unexpected factors like the virus situation could affect that sell through rate, and you will just have to readjust your expectations, sales prediction and future plans.

What's your portfolio size

 

[brandsly]

What's your portfolio size

Over 9000 now close to 10k, but over 2000 of them were just added in the past few months, just got back to a buying spree a few months ago.
5-6000 I acquired mostly in 2016-17, another 1000 or so in 18-19, slowed down a bit on the buying those couple of years, then added around a couple of thousand during the past few months. Will try to write a detailed post at some point in the future about everything, but over all, had over 2% STR.

Not a huge portfolio, but I think is big enough for me to "sense" the market fluctuations to some extent, as my STR has always been pretty consistent.

 

[Domain Monk]

Over 9000 now close to 10k, but over 2000 of them were just added in the past few months, just got back to a buying spree a few months ago.
5-6000 I acquired mostly in 2016-17, another 1000 or so in 18-19, slowed down a bit on the buying those couple of years, then added around a couple of thousand during the past few months. Will try to write a detailed post at some point in the future about everything, but over all, had over 2% STR.

Not a huge portfolio, but I think is big enough for me to "sense" the market fluctuations to some extent, as my STR has always been pretty consistent.

Thanks, would you mind telling how many % of the names are hand registered in the 10k domains.

 

[brandsly]

Thanks, would you mind telling how many % of the names are hand registered in the 10k domains.

I only handregged some in the very very beginning when I first started. I only bought from aftermarket after realizing good names were really all taken years ago. Especially I decided to not rely on any marketplace to sell names, so I really focused on quality. So overall, most of the names in my portfolio were acquired in aftermarket. Nowadays, I only handreg some emerging technology names or if some idea comes to mind, which is very very rare.

I understand the interest in sales and portfolio stats, but let's keep this thread on topic for now

It's long overdue, and I've been meaning to share more about my journey, hopefully I will find some time to do that soon.

 

[bballdude823]

Agreed -- not a huge believer in the epidemiology scare of a bad flu. It has likely been around for months.

However, that is not going to stop policy-makers to create disruption.

Time to brush up on the Hegelian Dialectics because I submit that there is an agenda being played out.

I will not be surprised if we see another 2008 style banking crisis leading to one world digital currency.

Here is the 54 year history of the 10 year US treasury yield:

Show attachment 146775
It is heading to zero, or thereabouts.

Call me crazy but one thing is clear, and that is it is a good time to set aside normalcy bias.

Call me crazy but I keep reading about $zec ??

 

[Rob Monster]

A few thoughts:

1. As expected, COVID-19 went pandemic. Schools in WA might stay closed until September. Commercial real estate, restaurants, gyms, etc. looking bleak.

2. On the other hand, domaining is a pretty good industry to be in -- the world will go much more digital and domainers control a lot of the best digital real estate on which for that to occur

3. The banking system is struggling to contend with massive defaults for industries that can't adapt quickly enough. There will be tremendous economic pressure, likely exceeding that of 9/11 or 2008.

4. For those who are not city dwellers, this might be a good year to plant a garden on your own property.

5. The most essential prepping is not emergency food, toilet paper, guns or precious metals. The real preps are spiritual. And for those who have not figured that out yet, no time like the present.

As for Epik, we are built for resiliency. We leverage a decentralized and nimble workforce whose culture is one of delivering excellence through adversity. Escrow transactions are through the roof.

As for payments, Epik's Masterbucks will soon get a very timely and major upgrade to streamline payments across borders.

Anyway, stay cool. While others lose their minds, those with cool heads will hopefully overcome whatever adversity might be coming your way for both you, your loved ones and your communities.

Good luck and blessings to all of NP.

 

[Sam]

FYI, email received from cloudflare:

Second, we are tracking Internet usage patterns globally. As more people work from home, peak traffic in impacted regions has increased, on average, approximately 10%. In Italy, which has imposed a nationwide quarantine, peak Internet traffic is up 30%. Traffic patterns have also shifted so peak traffic is occurring earlier in the day in impacted regions.

So it seems in-line with what I'm experiencing.

 

[bulkdomainz]

Media fear really, it's just a new strand of a cold virus...

........ that spreads like wildfire, and hasn't got an over-the-counter or 'cure' or a yearly jab. ☺

 

[Rob Monster]

........ that spreads like wildfire, and hasn't got an over-the-counter or 'cure' or a yearly jab. ☺

FYI, this Tweet is probably shadow-banned:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1238266589155385345

Private domain ownership is a talking point starting at 8:15 mark in the linked video.

We'll see how long that stays online.

 

[Winfluence]

I wonder if we should slow down with outbound during the next few weeks? Are CEO and marketing people too distracted to be bothered with acquiring new domains in these times of needless panic?

 

[Domain Monk]

We have to wait and watch what happens, for now sales are dead.

 

[topdom]

Good guys are more powerful this time, so although we may see a drammatic change in the world's power distribution, we may not see much damage in our daily lives.
......
Let me talk about colloidal silver I mentioned above, because people may try to buy it from some place otherwise. Prepare your own. It needs to be prepared and stored correctly. It is very sensitive to light. You can buy a kit from Sota and follow their instructions. You will need a glass jar, 9 volt battery, pure silver wires , darkness, time, and pure water. I mean, not just clean, but pure water, for the best result. I prepare it by distilling filtered water, and it is a time consuming process. Also cleaning oxidized silver wires is very difficult ( I'm sure there must be an easy and nontoxic method of cleaning them but I'm not aware of them. ). Does it work, yes, but I prefer not to use much of it, because it is very time-expensive to prepare (maybe only because I don't have the best tools).

 

[Rob Monster]

I wonder if we should slow down with outbound during the next few weeks? Are CEO and marketing people too distracted to be bothered with acquiring new domains in these times of needless panic?

I suggest try to think like a CEO.

In Seattle, a major restaurant decided to introduce a drive-through restaurant rather than closing down completely.

https://seattle.eater.com/2020/3/12...in-dining-room-opens-three-casual-restaurants

Business owners will have to decide whether to close up shop, or adapt to a different climate that is probably a lot more digital.

I am not sure where it leads but there are people with a lot of money on the sidelines whose entire business plans are out the window and will need new ones

Sure, you will get ignored a lot but if the alternative is to do nothing, well, that seems like a bad ideas. After all, regardless of epidemiology, the fallout of this is very possibly measured in years not weeks.