question UNCERTAINTY and the NEW G's

[Internet.Domains]

Uncertainty in business is one of the main components decision makers in an organization must address. Uncertainty in business is defined as:

Decision making: Situation where the current state of knowledge is such that (1) the order or nature of things is unknown, (2) the consequences, extent, or magnitude of circumstances, conditions, or events is unpredictable, and (3) credible probabilities to possible outcomes cannot be assigned

It is the uncertainty of so many factors that seem to be hindering any progress made with the New G program. Uncertainty with the New G program involves several key components. First, there is the uncertainty of end users adopting them. Second, there is the uncertainty that the public will become aware of them. Third, there is the uncertainty that the renewal prices will rise dramatically, such as the recent increases of over 3000%. Fourth, there is the uncertainty that the extensions will continue to exist if financial viability is not met.

Those are severe and damaging uncertainties for a business or organization to overcome. These uncertainties create a perpetual downward spiral, until changes are made. These uncertainties must be addressed by ICANN, REGISTRIES and REGISTRARS if the New G program is to be successful. As a New G proponent and investor, I can only hope that ICANN, REGISTRIES and REGISTRARS address the UNCERTAINTY going forward, and do it soon. Remove the uncertainty and success will come.

What do you think can be done to remove the UNCERTAINTY in the New G program?

 

[JB Lions]

Feel pretty much the same as I did 4 years ago

New gTLDs will be a lot of failure.

No real market for them, is the short answer why they will fail.

Since there will be so many of them, you can expect low reg numbers. Won't be a lot of development, meaning most normal people will never know they even exist. Will be a lot of confusion.

Most people will only know these exist thru actually visiting a website. There hasn't been enough quality development to get people there. You can find random examples but nothing major.

It's almost half China - https://ntldstats.com/country

United States, just 10.5% plus whatever is in that 24.6%, privacy.

Low adoption rate, to me.

New startups, low adoption rate.

So is it worth it for registrars and registries to put marketing dollars behind it? Do you think they'll get a return?

 

[Internet.Domains]

Feel pretty much the same as I did 4 years ago



Most people will only know these exist thru actually visiting a website. There hasn't been enough quality development to get people there. You can find random examples but nothing major.

It's almost half China - https://ntldstats.com/country

United States, just 10.5% plus whatever is in that 24.6%, privacy.

Low adoption rate, to me.

New startups, low adoption rate.

So is it worth it for registrars and registries to put marketing dollars behind it? Do you think they'll get a return?

I agree, it's too late for marketing. My point is that, collectively, ICANN, registries and registrars can significantly reduce many of the uncertainties so that development and end users will actually consider using the new extensions. At this point there is so many uncertainties that marketing would be throwing good money after bad, due to the significant amount of uncertainties that end users must consider.

 

[bmugford]

I agree, it's too late for marketing. My point is that, collectively, ICANN, registries and registrars can significantly reduce many of the uncertainties so that development and end users will actually consider using the new extensions.

They could have, but they didn't. The warnings have been there since day 1.
At the end of the day greed won and consumers got a marginal product with no stability.

Not a good value proposition.

Brad

 

[Dave]

They could have, but they didn't. The warnings have been there since day 1.
At the end of the day greed won and consumers got a marginal product with no stability.

Not a good value proposition.

Brad

I have missed reading your posts Brad, good to see you're still at Namepros writing sensible posts.

 

[Brands.International]

I like certain uncertainties. Imagine, if everything is certain, all is well marketed and regulated, no risks and huge end user demand present, no one would be able to establish nice new gTLDs portfolios like it is possible today, with only modest capital requirements.

When times are uncertain, it is best for purchases. When times are great and all is established, huge end user demand, then you sell.

It seems like lot of people trying to sell now, and planning to start creating their portfolios of new G's once everything is risk free - I do not understand how this can work.

So instead of thinking about new G's as such, think how you can use this situation for yourself so you can benefit from it in future

 

[Kate]

Taking a risk is one thing.
Building your home on shifting sands or volcanic soil is another.
You don't buy from a player who is playing against you.

 

[JB Lions]

I like certain uncertainties. Imagine, if everything is certain, all is well marketed and regulated, no risks and huge end user demand present, no one would be able to establish nice new gTLDs portfolios like it is possible today, with only modest capital requirements.

When times are uncertain, it is best for purchases. When times are great and all is established, huge end user demand, then you sell.

It seems like lot of people trying to sell now, and planning to start creating their portfolios of new G's once everything is risk free - I do not understand how this can work.

So instead of thinking about new G's as such, think how you can use this situation for yourself so you can benefit from it in future

When the writing was on the wall for .mobi., who do you think benefited more for dumping .mobi. The people who dumped and got something out of it, or the people who bought the dump?

 

[LeDomain]

Playing out like .mobi , only this time its a much wider net and the impact is going to be devastating for some. What will be left will be bare bones...lets see like info and biz. Are they dead no, but they are not changing the world either.

What is it called, USP (unique selling proposition), nothing unique about this experiment. Just changing the location of the DOT is not unique enough, it seems

 

[Kate]

There is one certainty, which even domains are not immune from: death

 

[Brands.International]

Guys please stop with .mobi example. We all know the story of .mobi.

It is the same as if you invest in stock market - some companies rise, some go down, some even fail - just because someone invested in stocks related to company which then failed, does not mean whole idea of stock market is nonsense.

 

[JB Lions]

Guys please stop with .mobi example. We all know the story of .mobi.

It is the same as if you invest in stock market - some companies rise, some go down, some even fail - just because someone invested in stocks related to company which then failed, does not mean whole idea of stock market is nonsense.

It's more about taking a look at what's going on and making decisions off of that.

You said:
"When times are uncertain, it is best for purchases. When times are great and all is established, huge end user demand, then you sell."

You base that on what? Where and how is this great end user demand coming from? There was a recent thread asking about what, if anything can ICAAN, registries, registrars do about that. Don't think it's really worth putting marketing dollars behind it.

They can raise the prices like what Uniregistry is doing. That's not good.

Frank sees this:
"demand among worldwide consumers has been slower than expected"

That's encouraging to you?

Reg numbers should take hit this year, does that make people feel good?

More importantly, your new gltd sales. How are those?

If you think what is going on right now and what's coming, bodes well for the future, I guess we'll see.

 

[Internet.Domains]

It's more about taking a look at what's going on and making decisions off of that.

You said:
"When times are uncertain, it is best for purchases. When times are great and all is established, huge end user demand, then you sell."

You base that on what? Where and how is this great end user demand coming from? There was a recent thread asking about what, if anything can ICAAN, registries, registrars do about that. Don't think it's really worth putting marketing dollars behind it.

They can raise the prices like what Uniregistry is doing. That's not good.

Frank sees this:
"demand among worldwide consumers has been slower than expected"

That's encouraging to you?

Reg numbers should take hit this year, does that make people feel good?

More importantly, your new gltd sales. How are those?

Yes, that is reality at the moment, like it or not.....

 

[Brands.International]

It's more about taking a look at what's going on and making decisions off of that.

You said:
"When times are uncertain, it is best for purchases. When times are great and all is established, huge end user demand, then you sell."

You base that on what? Where and how is this great end user demand coming from? There was a recent thread asking about what, if anything can ICAAN, registries, registrars do about that. Don't think it's really worth putting marketing dollars behind it.

They can raise the prices like what Uniregistry is doing. That's not good.

Frank sees this:
"demand among worldwide consumers has been slower than expected"

That's encouraging to you?

Reg numbers should take hit this year, does that make people feel good?

More importantly, your new gltd sales. How are those?

If you think what is going on right now and what's coming, bodes well for the future, I guess we'll see.

Well, I do not know (no one knows) whether in few years all will be established and whether there would be huge end user demand. We hope so, but we do not know. This is exactly that uncertainty we are discussing here. What I do is that I take (more or less) educated bet..I am trying to get best possible names cheaply now. Why it is possible to get good names cheaply now? Because of uncertainty..

So yes, it is a bet. You do not have level of certainty you have now with .com chips..but prices of .com chips are well established and there is no fear, so no one is going to sell you their names cheaply..if you want good names, you definitely have to pay for them a lot.

Situation in new G's is changing, opinions differ, even registries are sometimes not sure about pricing and price bad domains with huge price tags, while some good domains you can get for funny prices..no one know exactly what will happen, which extensions will be popular, what end users will prefer, etc..and this gives a lot of opportunity for certain types of investors.

 

[Kate]

What we can do to restore a sense of certainty ?

• first of all, stop releasing so many extensions for which there is no market, they will crash and make registrants unhappy, and also cast a doubt on the whole new gTLD program as a whole (already happening).
  
• release future extensions only after careful evaluation and ensuring there is enough public demand to sustain them (hint: use crowdfunding platforms to measure public interest and financial viability)
• if we do the above, then the risk of failure is diminished. Then, we can even lower the bar to entry for new registries. They currently pay an expensive application fee of 185K + recurring costs for continuity plans like EBERO, data escrow etc. But we can raise the bar if they have proven viability before delegation.
  
• regulate pricing like legacy extensions, if you don't then expect some backlash when registries jack up prices heavily (already happening).

If these conditions are met, we can have stability. Doesn't spell success but at least we have stability.
Now is this going to happen as long as Icann is in command ? I think it's going to take a disaster or two, and some government pressure perhaps.

But I think it's too late. New extensions should never have been allowed to go live before their viability has been assessed. Now all we can do is wait a few years.

In the meantime, maybe new extensions should be treated like packets of cigarettes and carry a label that reads 'Warning: this extension can be harmful to your wallet or your business' or something like that

 

[dordomai]

Guys please stop with .mobi example. We all know the story of .mobi.

It is the same as if you invest in stock market - some companies rise, some go down, some even fail - just because someone invested in stocks related to company which then failed, does not mean whole idea of stock market is nonsense.

.xxx, .name, .tv, .travel, .biz, .info, .jobs, .asia, .aero, .tel

next

.flowers, .guitars, .juegos, .hosting etc..

 

[Alessandro Couteau]

.xxx, .name, .tv, .travel, .biz, .info, .jobs, .asia, .aero, .tel

next

.flowers, .guitars, .juegos, .hosting etc..

Maybe you forgot sex.xxx sold for $3,000,000 or that Major League Baseball owns MLB.TV which was marketed to hundreds of millions @The World Series
... Handful of examples, but calling them dead is a lie ...

 

[JB Lions]

Maybe you forgot sex.xxx sold for $3,000,000 or that Major League Baseball owns MLB.TV which was marketed to hundreds of millions @The World Series
... Handful of examples, but calling them dead is a lie ...

Maybe sales? Using Namebio, 1 .xxx sale over last 2 years for $350.

Or using dnpric.es - http://dnpric.es/?q=.xxx highest was $448.40 over last 2 years

.tv is better

 

[Alessandro Couteau]

Maybe sales? Using Namebio, 1 .xxx sale over last 2 years for $350.

Or using dnpric.es - http://dnpric.es/?q=.xxx highest was $448.40 over last 2 years

.tv is better

No doubt

 

[dordomai]

Maybe you forgot sex.xxx sold for $3,000,000 or that Major League Baseball owns MLB.TV which was marketed to hundreds of millions @The World Series
... Handful of examples, but calling them dead is a lie ...

I know . Music.mobi sold for 600k
Both extensions are dead today(no sales)

 

[Alessandro Couteau]

I know . Music.mobi sold for 600k
Both extensions are dead today(no sales)

Maybe .xxx is - dead slow - but it's not dead and I wouldn't say .tv is dead either ... If I had a list of extensions that are dead slow, that wouldn't be in my top ten ... You could say .horse .blackfriday or any other extension which doesn't make really any sense ... But extensions that are useful, doesn't make too much sense to call them dead

There is this flawed idea of calling something dead and dead slow ... They are two totally different things ! The internet recycles itself just as home owners sell to other home owners until one day that house is crumbled by natural death or intentional death ...
Even then the rubble is still scooped up and recycled and built once again into the foundation of a new home ...

 

[dordomai]

Maybe .xxx is - dead slow - but it's not dead and I wouldn't say .tv is dead either ... If I had a list of extensions that are dead slow, that wouldn't be in my top ten ... You could say .horse .blackfriday or any other extension which doesn't make really any sense ... But extensions that are useful, doesn't make too much sense to call them dead

There is this flawed idea of calling something dead and dead slow ... They are two totally different things ! The internet recycles itself just as home owners sell to other home owners until one day that house is crumbled by natural death or intentional death ...
Even then the rubble is still scooped up and recycled and built once again into the foundation of a new home ...

i meant .mobi and .xxx are dead(check recent sales), .tv is not dead but it is better than 95% of new extensions IMO and even .tv went nearly bankrupt some years back.

 

[Addison]

Rough road ahead, but with enough time, I'm optimistic and realistic that it will all work out. These are the early days. There's bound to be a few speed bumps (trials and tribulations), but it'll happen. New gTLDs are not going anywhere. They're here to stay. It's only a matter of time until all the details get worked out.

ICANN may need to revise their policies, ICA may need to push toward registries signing contracts that freeze or limit price increases over time, or more credible companies that put their customers first, like Google and GoDaddy, may need to own and operate new gTLDs to reinstate trust in the program again.

Uniregistry has lost all credibility and trust, IMO.

 

[GoKaizen]

TelNic finances...

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/03555437/filing-history