What will be the biggest flop in '08?

[jacal1]

By the way, this IS an "official" thread - in case you were wondering :hehe: .

My guesses for biggest flops:

dictionary words with no commercial connection

.us

.tv

"brandable" nonsense words

LLLLs in anything but .com

all but the 4-5 biggest silent auctions (or was that '07?)

.biz (or was that '06?)

 

[Sleepys]

IDNs are very good but you have to know very well how the market in that country/region works
i am brazilian and there are many words with accents - IDNs - but as we use internet for a long time, just a few people - and i am sure they are not 5% of internet users - know they can use IDNs... if you ask a brazilian to type www dot coração dot com (with or without dot br) this person automatically would type it without accents; he/she would never ask you if they were or not necesssary and we have hundreds of thousands of words with accents

BTW, coração in portuguese means heart

I do not know the Portuguese market at all. I was just wondering why there are some words that have more results with the accent then without. Such as Dimensão vs Dimensao? Would that be more Portuguese from Portugal, rather than Brazil, using that word with the accent? I think that the reason many people would automatically type it without accents into the URL, might be because there are so many developed sites without accents. At least people are putting them on their pages with accents. What do you think?

 

[sashas]

Your point is well put but a clarification here.

I speak Hindi fairly well, if a bit bambaiyya. I also speak Punjabi, Derawali, Marathi, Gujarati and a smattering of Urdu, Tulu, Konkani, Bengali and even Sindhi.

However, correct spellings I'm confident of only English. Not to mention the fact that thought process and "speaking to loved ones" is also English.

well, I think any Indian can speak a bit of most languages.

But how many of us can actually write different languages? And how many of us can read them?

Very very few...

 

[Rubber Duck]

I have been doing this for the last three years and my sample size is a bit bigger than yours.

Fully respect your ideas, just putting together conclusions from natives that should know more then you do their own language and culture, or not?

Nobody is going to access the Internet in Hindi and Tamil if there is no web content. A year ago there was hardly any, but this year and particularly the last few months it has grown exponentially. There are now millions of web pages in not Hindi but also most of the major Indian languages.

As for IDN, nobody is going to use them until there is widespread browser support. My Russian traffic correlates very closely to the roll out of supporting browsers there.

As for a Pan-Indian site in English, yes that may work at the B2B level, but it really is a non-starter in the mass consumer market. Each consumer needs access in one language and they want it in their own language.

What facts do you need?

The fact that there are English speakers everywhere in India? Come on down for a visit... the boatman who takes you around on the Kerala backwaters speaks English and his local language, not Hindi. So does a taxi driver in Mumbai or even the 'boy' who delivers tea at most offices all over India.

The fact that there are 26 official languages in India and most language scripts are remarkably different from each other. IDNs would get lost, specially with like sashas saying that most youngsters can't spell in their local language. More's the shame but that's how it is.

The fact that English medium schools are at a premium here. In fact, a lot more students pass out each year from English medium schools across India than through language mediums.

The fact that all major business, government and so much so even road signs across the country are in English.

The fact is that of 1 Billion people - at least 200,000,000 speak English. Online users who use other languages would be a single digit percentage as of now. And I don't see it changing dramatically for the next few years.

While it's true that in terms of sheer numbers the local language speakers are more, but that is not to say that local language speakers cannot or will not communicate in English, even with a choice to use their local language.

Yes language offerings like newspapers, magazines and even tv channels far outsell English ones but I don't see any of them using IDNs because while most people speak the local language they write in English...

The fact, language sites account for less than 3 in the top 100 sites visited out of India - check alexa.

Fact, the largest local language portals use English as the primary access language -
http://www.webdunia.com/
http://www.oneindia.in/
http://www.rediff.com/

 

[mwzd]

I have been doing this for the last three years and my sample size is a bit bigger than yours.

Wish you all the best with your .in IDNs

Do let me know when you sell one for $xxx.
Maybe then I can register a few

Cheers!

 

[Rubber Duck]

Wish you all the best with your .in IDNs

Do let me know when you sell one for $xxx.
Maybe then I can register a few

Cheers!

I am invested in IDN.com, I think it is going to be hard to get good IDN.in because so many will be after them.

I would expect it to take a couple of years for there to be a solid market, but with the keywords I have, $xxx is not going to be an ambitious target.

I have an Indian online friend who owns, India.com in Hindi. He put it up at the Associated Traffics Moniker Live Auction with a $2M reserve. You might think this is your usual brainless domainer but he is from Jaipur and is studying at Harvard.

 

[mwzd]

India.com in Hindi. He put it up at the Associated Traffics Moniker Live Auction with a $2M reserve. You might think this is your usual brainless domainer but he is from Jaipur and is studying at Harvard.

I'm impressed, not. Let's see if it sells.
When it sells and at what price.

Sedo is full of people expecting millions from that one 'special' domain.

Have any Indian IDN.com sales figures I can look at?

 

[sashas]

There are many Indians here on NP.

Mwzd and I are just two of them. I'm pretty sure that they'll echo what we said. Moreover, I'm also pretty sure that unless they're all from the same region, English will be the only common language that they can read, write, and speak.

 

[Alex]

I have an Indian online friend who owns, India.com in Hindi. He put it up at the Associated Traffics Moniker Live Auction with a $2M reserve. You might think this is your usual brainless domainer but he is from Jaipur and is studying at Harvard.

Now this is no a valid argument, since I can ask $10 millions for any domain I have. And the place where he studies has nothing to do with unrealistic expectations.

What matters in domaining, is what actually did sell. I know some geo IDN's fetched nice $$$ like moscow.com in IDN if I recall correctly.

 

[sashas]

You CAN'T compare Russian, Chinese, Japanese, Korean, German IDNs with Indian IDNs!

NONE of these countries was ruled by the British for 300 years up to as close as 1947

The mechanics are ENTIRELY different.

 

[Rubber Duck]

Moscow went very cheaply. There have been much higher sales than that!

Now this is no a valid argument, since I can ask $10 millions for any domain I have. And the place where he studies has nothing to do with unrealistic expectations.

What matters in domaining, is what actually did sell. I know some geo IDN's fetched nice $$$ like moscow.com in IDN if I recall correctly.

Yes, but he did get it onto to a Moniker Live Auction which means he gained credibility with some highly respected domainers.

I am only aware of Hindi IDN that have fetched mid $x,xxx, but of course nobody made serious money considering investment opportunities with little capital after those landmark sales have been achieved.

There are many Indians here on NP.

Mwzd and I are just two of them. I'm pretty sure that they'll echo what we said. Moreover, I'm also pretty sure that unless they're all from the same region, English will be the only common language that they can read, write, and speak.

That may be so. But of course there are no Indians here that only speak Hindi I guess.

You CAN'T compare Russian, Chinese, Japanese, Korean, German IDNs with Indian IDNs!

NONE of these countries was ruled by the British for 300 years up to as close as 1947

The mechanics are ENTIRELY different.

This is a valid point to some degree, but the Indians certainly didn't all speak English when the British left.

This has certainly inhibited the development of local languages as an online medium, but whether it has permanent stopped it is an entirely different question.

Much actually depends on political will and direction. Modern Hebrew was created from scratch not so very long ago. Hebrew was a dead language. So we know that anything is possible.

If the Indians really all believe that their future lies in speaking English, that is what will happen. Obviously, if a vote was taken from those contributing to this thread, it would be implemented tomorrow. We shall just all have to wait and see.

 

[equity78]

I love the IDN pumper is arguing with actual Indians about their own country, Classic

 

[sashas]

Rubber Duck, check out Orkut.
Its primary users are Indians and Brazilians.

Now check out the profiles of Brazilian people there, and then check out the profiles of Indian people there.

See what language they use there. The Brazilians use Portuguese, with the accents and everything.
The Indians use English, even though orkut has a feature that allows the use of language scripts.
I get a few scraps from friends from time to time in which they use the Hindi script. But almost all the times, they're used to spell English words and are supposed to be funny.

There are people from all over India on Orkut, not just the big cities. They might not be too good at it, but they still use English there.

 

[mhdoc]

Very interesting discussion; really provides good background for coming to grips with global trends/ideas/issues.

It looks to me like the Indians here have the "opportunity" to do what the early domain name investors (being discussed in another thread) did. Mortgage their house, borrow from friends, and max out their charge cards to place a BIG bet on what will happen

 

[sashas]

Very interesting discussion; really provides good background for coming to grips with global trends/ideas/issues.

It looks to me like the Indians here have the "opportunity" to do what the early domain name investors (being discussed in another thread) did. Mortgage their house, borrow from friends, and max out their charge cards to place a BIG bet on what will happen

you're right. A 1000 bucks spent in regging names won't kill me. Thats the same way I'm going with .asia. If they work, I'll make a profit. If they don't, hell, 1000 bucks won't bankrupt me.

If someone can get good IDNs for reg fee, then nothing wrong with it.

 

[bricio]

I do not know the Portuguese market at all. I was just wondering why there are some words that have more results with the accent then without. Such as Dimensão vs Dimensao? Would that be more Portuguese from Portugal, rather than Brazil, using that word with the accent? I think that the reason many people would automatically type it without accents into the URL, might be because there are so many developed sites without accents. At least people are putting them on their pages with accents. What do you think?

hi Sleepys,

the words in portuguese are the same in brazil, portugal, angola, mocambique (moçambique - IDN) and any other portuguese-speaking country; so, the correct word is dimensão (IDN)
brazil's internet is more developed than portuguese one as we are almost 200 million people and i am almoest sure, 50% access internet... you have more results typing dimensão as it is the correct writing, so when we are typing in word, excel, power point, etc and it is something important it will be surely typed as the grammar rules but when we are typing a web address we just "forget" the accents; it can seem strange but it happens like this
i really dont know how it works in portugal and it would be nice to know
what i know is portuguese people translate many more words than us... for example we say "mouse" as we were english-speakers instead of sing "rato" (the portuguese translation) and it happens with hundreds of words
the IDNs in brazil using .br have rules to be reg'd and sometimes it can bring troubles... the word "maca" in portuguese means stretch but the word "maçã" (IDN) means apple and the brazilian rule says only the owner of "maca" can reg "maçã" (IDN) but the words have different use

i really dont believe in IDNs in (in portuguese) -> brasil

 

[sparkplug]

Countdown threads. A speculative countdown thread bubble will develop and burst mid way through 2008, leaving the first page of the Domain Name Discussion forum barren of such topics.

 

[Andrei P.]

IDNs will be good for collections and for domain names protection. E.g. if you are owner of maca you'd better to get maçã also. But having just maçã is very bad because I will not be able to get to this site though typing it in address bar because I don't have Portuguese keyboard layout.

 

[kemjika11]

i almost forgot what this thread was about with all this IDN-moscow-hindu-harvard talk ......lol

 

[Rubber Duck]

I love the IDN pumper is arguing with actual Indians about their own country, Classic

I can't get over the idea of all those Indians watching Bollywood films with English Sub Titles. Perhaps somebody should tell the film producers.

Seriously though this is the kind of thing I am more likely to take notice of:

http://internetcommunications.tmcne...duces-multi-lingual-sms-tv-mobile-handset.htm
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...d_broadband_clientele/articleshow/2578019.cms
http://www.techtree.com/India/News/MTNL_Delhi_Intros_Multi_Lingual_SMS/551-84824-613.html
http://www.efytimes.com/efytimes/23058/news.htm
http://www.localisationlabs.com/How To Localise.aspx?storyid=060711130458010600
http://gigaom.com/2006/08/17/local-content-for-indian-internet-growth/
http://www.techtree.com/techtree/jsp/article.jsp?article_id=74901&cat_id=597

 

[Sleepys]

Thanks for the detailed answer. That is exactly what I was looking for. An opinion of someone from Brazil. Do you guys use .br over there? I have not seen any place where I can register them, only .com.br. I still think that if people are typing it on there webpages, then some people must be using it, and people don't think to type in the accents, because their aren't enough developed sites that use them. Keyword Discovery does show that people use the word wthout the accent more. Whether or not there will ever be enough is the question. I do have a couple

 

[Rubber Duck]

you're right. A 1000 bucks spent in regging names won't kill me. Thats the same way I'm going with .asia. If they work, I'll make a profit. If they don't, hell, 1000 bucks won't bankrupt me.

If someone can get good IDNs for reg fee, then nothing wrong with it.

I picked nearly all mine up for reg fee, many of them 3.5 years ago.

Assuming at least some of you can render Hindi fonts, here is a small sample:

कन्या.com
दीपावली.com
सिनेमा.net
व्यवसाय.net
जयपुर.com
कानपुर.com
क्रिकेट.net
कंपनी.com
चित्र.com
भविष्य.com
महिला.com
ई-मेल.com
व.com
काम.com

 

[Sleepys]

I will give my predictions on the biggest flops of next year (hopefully no one gets too offended by this)

1) R-e-a-l-l-y-l-o-n-g-d-o-m-a-i-n-s(with hyphens between every letter)

2) Whichever extension raises the price for 1 year of registration the most will probably be a big flop (likewise whichever extension drops the price the most for 1 year will probably gain in popularity)

 

[Rubber Duck]

I will give my predictions on the biggest flops of next year (hopefully no one gets too offended by this)

1) R-e-a-l-l-y-l-o-n-g-d-o-m-a-i-n-s(with hyphens between every letter)

2) Whichever extension raises the price for 1 year of registration the most will probably be a big flop (likewise whichever extension drops the price the most for 1 year will probably gain in popularity)

You will have a few problems persuading the guys on here about there first one.


Second is absolutely wrong. Prices are driven by Wanabees chasing trends at the top end of the market. At the top of end of the market nobody cares about renewal fees. They vary between inconsequential and inconsequential.

 

[Sleepys]

That is just my prediction. I think that .info being so cheap did play a part in it beating other extensions. .TV is very expensive. .Pro is really expensive. What would happen if they made their prices more competitive. What if .Pro became $1.99 and .info became $24.99 a year?(not going to happen) I think that it is important on the resale market, that domains are not so expensive to prohibit people from renewing them. Then they just drop. Obviously there are exceptions to both of my guesses. Super premium domains will work in any extention. Point #1 is more about really long ones. But, yeah, some people will definately disagree with both.

 

[evilopinions]

I picked nearly all mine up for reg fee, many of them 3.5 years ago.

Assuming at least some of you can render Hindi fonts, here is a small sample:

कन्या.com
दीपावली.com
सिनेमा.net
व्यवसाय.net
जयपुर.com
कानपुर.com
क्रिकेट.net
कंपनी.com
चित्र.com
भविष्य.com
महिला.com
ई-मेल.com
व.com
काम.com

Rubber duck I seriously wanna kick your arse...You just making me feel terribly bad with your names....

7 years and I can see 10 millions minimum....

I agree with Sashas and MWZD on the argument but I would have also to agree that some day Indians will use the IDN (hindi names) but I am pretty sure the content will be all english....

This also makes me thingk....how many typos can an IDN have .... :hehe: I have stopped counting ....

This however also brings us to one more important question...you own india.com IDN.....what happens tomo when the market blooms...wouldn't the owner of India.com(in real sense) come knocking on your doors trademark,trademark....