The LLL.com sales report & discussion thread

[italiandragon]

We need this one too guys

This guide will also help LLLL.com holders to understand more the value of their 4 letters .com based on how expensive the similar 3 letters .com are.

From:

http://3character.com/priceguide.html

Pricing Guide for 3-Letter (Composed Of Letters Only) Domains:

Current Observed Minimum Wholesale Price (regardless of letter combo) as of February 1, 2008:

3-Letter .com - $6700 (+ $300 since January 1, 2008 report)

But I consider their guide a bit old since they are not taking in consideration the emergenging countries that appreciate other letters and as we have run a poll here several times lately, the majority of people consider the letters U
and W to be Premium letters.

Let`s have a look at some recent LLL.com sales as reported from NameBio.com :


nak.com $27,135 2007-12-22 SEDO.com
nyz.com $10,605 2007-12-19 tdnam
utw.com $10,100 2007-12-10 SEDO.com
via.com $157,500 2007-12-06 SEDO.com
cgf.com $14,500 2007-12-06 SEDO.com
vkx.com $6,200 2007-12-06 SEDO.com
mje.com $10,734 2007-12-06 SEDO.com
okf.com $8,500 2007-12-06 SEDO.com
our.com $60,000 2007-12-06 SEDO.com
kxr.com $7,101 2007-12-06 SEDO.com
lhg.com $13,613 2007-12-06 SEDO.com
wae.com $10,099 2007-12-06 SEDO.com
hya.com $7,499 2007-12-06 SEDO.com
yrd.com $9,100 2007-12-05 SEDO.com
vfk.com $15,750 2007-11-29 AfterNic.com
qee.com $10,882 2007-11-27 SEDO.com

 

[snoop]

So your one single example which was 10 days away from HFP is relevant, but 6 from the same month and 2 from April (35 days away) aren't? I guess 20 days makes all the difference in the world.

Around that time if you posted a trip premium on the forums with a $17k BIN it would be gone within minutes.

Sorry, but none of your fear-mongering posts have anything to back them up. A few months ago you were claiming prices were down by 50% when they were really down by about 20%, which was the last time I called you out. You didn't have anything to back up your claims then either. Prices still aren't down by 50% yet from their peak in March-April...

I mean are you seriously listening to yourself? You just said min wholesale for a trip premium was $12.5k back in May. That's laughable.

The lowest auction prices then were the "minimum", it is really that simple and I'm not sure how that concept is "laughable".

You claim I am "fear mongering", I claim you are constantly trying "hype up" the market and paint a picture that is not accurate by ignoring sales that don't fit into your idea of the minimum.

Much like a couple of weeks ago when you argued with me that the minimum for lll.com in September was not $5000. Seems like you gave up pretty quickly on that argument when I pointed out that you'd be selling lll.com yourself for $5000 during September?

http://www.namepros.com/429599-lll-com-sales-report-evaluation-thread-33.html#post3117060

 

[Michael]

So we get back to you not distinguishing between the "lowest sale" and "minimum wholesale". There's a big difference... one actually requires analysis.

When I won HFP at $12.5k, which by your own assertions was fair market value, there was a thread about it in the external auctions section at DNF. At least 4 people posted that they were pissed because they forgot about the auction and that I got a steal. You're acting like there's a totally different subset of people bidding on Sedo and on the forums, and that not only is there no overlap, but that only Sedo has the ability to set the standard for the market.

How can you say I'm trying to "hype up" the market when my statements are actually based on numbers and analysis, while you're simply regurgitating the lowest recorded sale? Your method is wrong, and unless you're really obtuse it must be intentional. You don't strike me as someone who doesn't know their ass from their elbow, so what other conclusion is there to draw?

Edit:

Just to add, you claim I'm ignoring sales that don't fit into my model. I'm not doing that, I'm ignoring outliers. I don't count in when a trip premium like CPC.com sells for $200k+ just as I don't count when a trip premium sells for $12k. That's how you take a fair average...

On the other hand, you're not only ignoring sales that don't fit you're agenda, you're ignoring EVERY sale except for one, the lowest.

 

[snoop]

So we get back to you not distinguishing between the "lowest sale" and "minimum wholesale". There's a big difference... one actually requires analysis.

When I won HFP at $12.5k, which by your own assertions was fair market value, there was a thread about it in the external auctions section at DNF. At least 4 people posted that they were pissed because they forgot about the auction and that I got a steal. You're acting like there's a totally different subset of people bidding on Sedo and on the forums, and that not only is there no overlap, but that only Sedo has the ability to set the standard for the market.

Your argument is hot air, people on the forums saying they missed an auction doesn't mean values are actually higher. A sale isn't an outlier when other sales are close to it. In the lll.com and llll.com sales threads someone claims every second sale is a "steal". These auction results just reflect market prices.

How can you say I'm trying to "hype up" the market when my statements are actually based on numbers and analysis, while you're simply regurgitating the lowest recorded sale? Your method is wrong, and unless you're really obtuse it must be intentional. You don't strike me as someone who doesn't know their ass from their elbow, so what other conclusion is there to draw?

Your "numbers" are based on sales data minus the lower priced sales you don't like.

A classic case of your hype and an issue you are still avoiding is your claims about lll.com minimums for September.

Why do you not want to address this issue after you argued so much that the minimum was not $5000, yet it was pointed out that you were selling them yourself for that price?

 

[Michael]

Your argument is hot air, people on the forums saying they missed an auction doesn't mean values are actually higher. A sale isn't an outlier when other sales are close to it. In the lll.com and llll.com sales threads someone claims every second sale is a "steal". These auction results just reflect market prices.

And yours is hot air because you're assuming that if something is on auction at Sedo, every single person who would be interested is aware of the auction and bidding on it. I'm sure you've heard that certain days are better than others for a Sedo auction to end. By your logic the exact same domain can have two separate fair market values depending on the day it sells on. That makes no sense. Sometimes domains don't hit their fair market value on Sedo, sometimes they double what most people would pay if an end user was involved. There are anomalies, and you can't do a good analysis of the market looking at ONE domain.

Your "numbers" are based on sales data minus the lower priced sales you don't like.

See my edit above.

A classic case of your hype and an issue you are still avoiding is your claims about lll.com minimums for September.

Why do you not want to address this issue after you argued so much that the minimum was not $5000, yet it was pointed out that you were selling them yourself for that price?

There were extenuating circumstances. Not that it is any of your business, but I needed to sell those quickly for personal reasons and sold them lower than I could have because someone was willing to buy both at the same time and close the deal quickly.

You're the one avoiding the $5k September comment as you still have not backed that up with data. I posted all the September sales, and there wasn't a single one at $5k. So by using your method of picking the lowest sale, which is completely off the mark to begin with, you were still wrong.

 

[snoop]

So we get back to you not distinguishing between the "lowest sale" and "minimum wholesale". There's a big difference... one actually requires analysis.
.................

Just to add, you claim I'm ignoring sales that doing fit into my model. I'm not doing that, I'm ignoring outliers. I don't count in when a trip premium like CPC.com sells for $200k+ just as I don't count when a trip premium sells for $12k. That's how you take a fair average...

On the other hand, you're not only ignoring sales that don't fit you're agenda, you're ignoring EVERY sale except for one, the lowest.

It is the same old issue, "minimum" means "minimum", it does not mean "average", "What is the minimum I can get for any premium lll.com at auction".

You are taking about the auction minimums and then you start talking about averages as way to calculate it, it makes no sense. Some people in the llll.com section like to do the same thing, funny how people only started on this argument when prices stated falling.

I can't beleive I need to do this but here is what minimum means,

"The smallest number in a finite set of numbers."

http://www.answers.com/minimum

The smallest.......not the average, the smallest!

There were extenuating circumstances. Not that it is any of your business, but I needed to sell those quickly for personal reasons and sold them lower than I could have because someone was willing to buy both at the same time and close the deal quickly.

It simply an example of how you say one thing (to try and prop up prices) and do another (sell for less because you know what you are saying is not accurate).

 

[Michael]

It is the same old issue, "minimum" means "minimum", it does not mean "average", "What is the minimum I can get for any premium lll.com at auction".

You are taking about the auction minimums and then you start talking about averages as way to calculate it, it makes no sense. Some people in the llll.com section like to do the same thing, funny how people only started on this argument when prices stated falling.

I can't beleive I need to do this but here is what minimum means,

"The smallest number in a finite set of numbers."

http://www.answers.com/minimum

The smallest.......not the average, the smallest!

Try to think outside the box for two seconds. Minimum wholesale is a concept, it does not literally mean the lowest sale. You take all the sales at the low end of the spectrum and take an average. You can not gain ANY meaningful insight into a market by looking at a single sale, you should know better than that.

People use the concept of min wholesale to try and determine a price that they should expect to see for a domain at the low end of the quality spectrum. What does one single sale tell you about that? You need to look at several sales to get an idea what the price level is at.

It simply an example of how you say one thing (to try and prop up prices) and do another (sell for less because you know what you are saying is not accurate).

Um... no... it's an example of me giving a bulk discount and needing a quick sale because I had some bills to pay. You've never heard of the concept of a "distressed seller" or a "motivated seller"? They usually sell for less that market prices would support.

Besides, that wasn't a Sedo auction, so by your own words that sale is not at all relevant to this discussion.

 

[snoop]

Try to think outside the box for two seconds. Minimum wholesale is a concept, it does not literally mean the lowest sale. You take all the sales at the low end of the spectrum and take an average. You can not gain ANY meaningful insight into a market by looking at a single sale, you should know better than that.

People use the concept of min wholesale to try and determine a price that they should expect to see for a domain at the low end of the quality spectrum. What does one single sale tell you about that? You need to look at several sales to get an idea what the price level is at.

Sorry this just isn't what the word "minimum" means. You are writing your own definition here talking about averages. Removing an obvious outlier is one thing (especially private sales) but to suggest a minimum should be calculated by taking an average is just nonsense.

 

[Michael]

Sorry this just isn't what the word "minimum" means. You are writing your own definition here talking about averages. Removing an obvious outlier is one thing (especially private sales) but to suggest a minimum should be calculated by taking an average is just nonsense.

Ask anyone who monitors sale prices and calculates minimum wholesale prices. Reece doing LLLL.coms, 3character.com, etc. Do ANY single one of them just report the lowest sale? NO, they don't, they calculate the average sale price of domains that are at the lower end of the quality spectrum.

Obviously I'm just writing my own definition... and everyone who does analysis just bought right into it.... suckers.

Get a clue man. Minimum wholesale does not mean the lowest recorded sale. You're simply confused because it is a concept that requires analysis instead of something straight forward that a child could do.

 

[snoop]

Ask anyone who monitors sale prices and calculates minimum wholesale prices. Reece doing LLLL.coms, 3character.com, etc. Do ANY single one of them just report the lowest sale? NO, they don't, they calculate the average sale price of domains that are at the lower end of the quality spectrum.

Obviously I'm just writing my own definition... and everyone who does analysis just bought right into it.... suckers.

Get a clue man. Minimum wholesale does not mean the lowest recorded sale. You're simply confused because it is a concept that requires analysis instead of something straight forward that a child could do.

Here is what 3character.com says about their rationale (in terms of actual prices though the guide has been out for months),

*Guide Rationale: The 3character.com price guide provides the lowest "Minimum Wholesale Price" for each type of 3 Character domain listed. It is important to note that the minimum price shown in this guide typically reflects the selling prices for the lower quality character combinations of each type. Letter and Number quality are very important in determining a 3 character domain's value and can have a great effect on each domain's wholesale value.

Read "provides the lowest "Minimum Wholesale Price", they do not say "average".

Note this also as it clearly shows most names should sell above the minimum,

Many, if not most all 3 character domains, will sell on the wholesale level at prices higher than quoted in this guide, as this guide's focus is to reflect a minimum price valuation per category.

http://www.3character.com/priceguide.html

 

[Michael]

Here is what 3character.com says about their rationale (in terms of actual prices though the guide has been out for months),



Read "provides the lowest "Minimum Wholesale Price", they do not say "average".

Note this also as it clearly shows most names should sell above the minimum,



http://www.3character.com/priceguide.html

Um, you just proved my point. They provide minimum wholesale data, and they DO NOT calculate it by regurgitating the lowest recorded sale. They average the sale prices of low quality domains.

It is important to note that the minimum price shown in this guide typically reflects the selling prices for the lower quality character combinations of each type.

See the plural on "prices"????????? They do NOT say "It is important to note that the minimum price shown in this guide reflects the single lowest sale for the lower quality character combinations of each type."

Got it?

 

[Big HEAD]

Its like watching two Stags go at it in the rutting season only that you are arguing over may be $300 - $400 rather than the right to give your genes to the next generation.
In the absence of a consensus - you are not going to agree ever. How about we do what all great leaders do and make a compromise. Snoop says minimum is 4,600 and Micheal 5,000 $4,800 seems about right and to keep all sides happy we give it a tolerance.i.e. $4,800+/-5% - that means both your figures are correct and WWIII has been averted. Comon guys we don't have an index for LLL.coms so we have to work with non absolute figures otherwise we will be just arguing and then die!!! I want to engage in some constructive debate and tweak my nipples at the same time!! Ohhh :o

 

[snoop]

Um, you just proved my point. They provide minimum wholesale data, and they DO NOT calculate it by regurgitating the lowest recorded sale. They average the sale prices of low quality domains.

I'm sorry but no where on the page does it say anything about averages, minimum means minimum, I really can put it any more simply.

 

[Michael]

I'm sorry but no where on the page does it say anything about averages, minimum means minimum, I really can put it any more simply.

Have you ever, ever seen their data be equal to the lowest sale in a given month? Lets check the 3character.com history against the sale history:

September 2008
Min Wholesale: $5,500
Lowest Sale: $5,144

August 2008
Min Wholesale: $6,000
Lowest Sale: $5,778

July 2008
Min Wholesale: $7,650
Lowest Sale: $6,100

So, what on God's green earth would make you think that they are calculating min wholesale based on the lowest sale? Notice how their number is always higher than the lowest sale? That's because it is an average. Duh?

This is just another example of you talking out of your ass and not having anything in the REAL world to back it up.

 

[snoop]

Have you ever, ever seen their data be equal to the lowest sale in a given month? Lets check the 3character.com history against the sale history:

September 2008
Min Wholesale: $5,500
Lowest Sale: $5,144

August 2008
Min Wholesale: $6,000
Lowest Sale: $5,778

July 2008
Min Wholesale: $7,650
Lowest Sale: $6,100

So, what on God's green earth would make you think that they are calculating min wholesale based on the lowest sale? Duh?

Your logic is well off here I afraid as it is well known that they have not been accurately reporting the market lately (as I posted above). I don't think that has anything at all to do with their "rationale" it is more a case of trying to ignore the falls.

It was acurate until about mid year. Then we had to read that the minimum was supposedly $7650 in July depite strings of sales well below $7000. When the market rose it was a good guide, when the falls started the misinformation began.

 

[Michael]

You're completely and totally missing the point, as usual. You said I was making up the definition of min wholesale, and that the actual definition is the single lowest sale. Well, 3Character.com reports the min wholesale, and they DON'T do it your way, they do it my way. Clear evidence that I was not making up the definition. Ask Reece how he calculates the min wholesale of LLLL.com. I'll give you $10,000 if he tells you he just posts the single lowest sale. He won't... because that isn't what min wholesale is.

I'm not going to debate with you whether their numbers are high or low, that depends on which outliers you throw out. But even a complete idiot should be able to tell that they aren't just saying the lowest sale when they say what min wholesale is.

Leave the analysis to the people who understand what they are doing. We'll call on you whenever we want to know what the lowest sale was in a given month.

 

[snoop]

You're completely and totally missing the point, as usual. You said I was making up the definition of min wholesale, and that the actual definition is the single lowest sale. Well, 3Character.com reports the min wholesale, and they DON'T do it your way, they do it my way.

I'm sorry but nowhere on their site do they claim to take an average.

 

[Big HEAD]

Oh well, I will not try for Kofi Hanan's UN job just yet.

 

[Michael]

I'm sorry but nowhere on their site do they claim to take an average.

Do you agree that they are not reporting the lowest sale as the minimum wholesale? You can't possibly argue that, I showed you the numbers.

Therefore, minimum wholesale is NOT the lowest recorded sale. You're wrong, just accept it and let's get back to reporting sales.

 

[ecalc]

... They provide minimum wholesale data, and they DO NOT calculate it by regurgitating the lowest recorded sale. They average the sale prices of low quality domains...

Please tell us how to calculate the maximum wholesale price for the same theoretical set of low quality domains, thanks.

 

[Michael]

Please tell us how to calculate the maximum wholesale price for the same theoretical set of low quality domains, thanks.

Edit:

Sorry, misread your post, see my next post. I'm leaving this here anyway just for clarification.

I'm sure everyone who is an authority on min wholesale prices does it a little differently. I break all the sales from the month into three sectors: low, mid, and high quality based on the letter combinations, pronounceability, etc. Then I throw out the outliers in the "low" category (i.e. when that one guy bought a ton of LLL at $40k each, etc.), and take the average.

I'm not saying that is the only acceptable method, I'm saying that to claim min wholesale is defined entirely by the single lowest sale is simply wrong. No ifs, ands, or buts about it. I mentioned an average because that is the most likely, and rational way to do it.

 

[ecalc]

So, for a theoretical set of low quality domains, the maximum, minimum and average are all the same?

 

[bmugford]

Michael, it is not worth introducing "Facts" or "Data" in an argument with Snoop. When you have an agenda, all you will do is cherry pick any data that supports your argument.

We have had this argument in the LLLL.com thread over and over. Snoop just doesn't get it. He will take the average sale at peak, and them compare it to the lowest sales now. Objectively it should be average vs average or low vs low, not a little of both.

Even during the peak LLLL.com sold for $30 here and there, but that is not something he will accept. Because if you accept that then it blows his "LLLL.com have dropped 97% argument", which is ridiculous.

Here is a challenge. 10NP$ to anyone who finds a positive post from Snoop on anything. Good luck.

Brad

Do you agree that they are not reporting the lowest sale as the minimum wholesale? You can't possibly argue that, I showed you the numbers.

Therefore, minimum wholesale is NOT the lowest recorded sale. You're wrong, just accept it and let's get back to reporting sales.

 

[Michael]

So, for a theoretical set of low quality domains, the maximum, minimum and average are all the same?

The term "minimum wholesale" refers to the average sale price. There can only be one average, just as there is only one min wholesale for a category of domains. I've never heard of the term maximum wholesale.

Michael, it is not worth introducing "Facts" or "Data" in an argument with Snoop. When you have an agenda, all you will do is cherry pick any data that supports your argument.

We have had this argument in the LLLL.com thread over and over Snoop doesn't get it. He will take the average sale at peak, and them compare it to the lowest sales now. Objectively it should be average vs average or low vs low, not a little of both.

Here is a challenge. 10NP$ to anyone who finds a positive post from Snoop on anything. Good luck.

Brad

Completely agree. That's a contest I won't try to win, it'd be an exercise in futility. I can't tell you how many high-rollers I've talked to that have specifically mentioned Snoop and asked me what he's doing trying to drive LLL prices down. I kid you not.

 

[snoop]

Even during the peak LLLL.com sold for $30 here and there, but that is not something he will accept.

The minimum was widely seen by people as around $60 at at the peak for LLLL.com. Reece's guide which was the most followed reported a $55 minimum in February.

 

[Michael]

The minimum was widely seen by people as around $60 at at the peak for LLLL.com. Reece's guide which was the most followed reported a $55 minimum in February.

So now minimum wholesale is not the lowest observed sale? You need to get your story straight.