What will be the biggest flop in '08?

jacal1 · Dec 16, 2007

By the way, this IS an "official" thread - in case you were wondering :hehe: .

My guesses for biggest flops:

dictionary words with no commercial connection

.us

.tv

"brandable" nonsense words

LLLLs in anything but .com

all but the 4-5 biggest silent auctions (or was that '07?)

.biz (or was that '06?)

.X. · Dec 20, 2007

equity78 said:
I love the IDN pumper is arguing with actual Indians about their own country, Classic

LMAO.....My thoughts exactly

My closest friend in this industry, Is Indian, From India, But now living in the US.

It is some what comical, To see folks from other countries, telling people whom either live in India, or are from India, how their own country is.

npcomplete · Dec 20, 2007

I hope my prediction is wrong, but I think that the biggest flop in 2008 will be the economy, and that the general markets will be neutral to bearish, in keeping with some predictions of a recession. That tells me there are conflicting indicators that are speaking to the economists. The stock market has been highly volatile, which is consistent with conflicting indicators. I think the volatility alone will make many investors more conservative, although risk takers will become more liberal in an attempt to take advantage of the short term volatility. I think that this overall effect of the economy with increased volatility will have a partial effect in domain investing, with perhaps some tendency for conservative or weakly funded investors to pull out or take a vacation from domain investing. As people see large fluctuations in their non-domain investments (housing, stocks...), this will impact how some families will manage their future investments. I think this means that a recession or continued volatility on either a US or world scale could reduce the readily available cash that was fueling some of the more speculative investments in domains in the low-quality and mid-quality range. I think high end domains will do extremely well. Recessions are known for wealth concentration and I suppose this could happen with domains as holders/sellers of med-high quality domains sell to holders/buyers of high quality domains.

So that is it: a move towards high quality domains stimulated by a recession or general "blah" but volatile economy, with the biggest flop being in speculative low quality domains fed by jobs that may go away. This will reduce the amount of money available for fueling investments in domains, with the low end range taking a price hit... but not a big hit since they are low-end. I don't know if we will see major price reductions on high end domains like we would with some antiques and collectibles, but there is pressure even on the high end during recessions. In the same way that we see prolonged time on market for real estate as an indicator of real estate market health, we may see prolonged selling times as people worldwide tighten their belts in a blah economy. I hope I am wrong about this recession stuff... with an election year coming there may be some pumping by the fed.

Marc

Rubber Duck · Dec 20, 2007

Sleepys said:
That is just my prediction. I think that .info being so cheap did play a part in it beating other extensions. .TV is very expensive. .Pro is really expensive. What would happen if they made their prices more competitive. What if .Pro became $1.99 and .info became $24.99 a year?(not going to happen) I think that it is important on the resale market, that domains are not so expensive to prohibit people from renewing them. Then they just drop. Obviously there are exceptions to both of my guesses. Super premium domains will work in any extention. Point #1 is more about really long ones. But, yeah, some people will definately disagree with both.

Most major Corps have their dot coms at Net Sol. They don't regard $35 a year as an impediment. They could move them to save around $25 dollar a year. Do they care?

npcomplete said:
I hope my prediction is wrong, but I think that the biggest flop in 2008 will be the economy, and that the general markets will be neutral to bearish, in keeping with some predictions of a recession. That tells me there are conflicting indicators that are speaking to the economists. The stock market has been highly volatile, which is consistent with conflicting indicators. I think the volatility alone will make many investors more conservative, although risk takers will become more liberal in an attempt to take advantage of the short term volatility. I think that this overall effect of the economy with increased volatility will have a partial effect in domain investing, with perhaps some tendency for conservative or weakly funded investors to pull out or take a vacation from domain investing. As people see large fluctuations in their non-domain investments (housing, stocks...), this will impact how some families will manage their future investments. I think this means that a recession or continued volatility on either a US or world scale could reduce the readily available cash that was fueling some of the more speculative investments in domains in the low-quality and mid-quality range. I think high end domains will do extremely well. Recessions are known for wealth concentration and I suppose this could happen with domains as holders/sellers of med-high quality domains sell to holders/buyers of high quality domains.

So that is it: a move towards high quality domains stimulated by a recession or general "blah" but volatile economy, with the biggest flop being in speculative low quality domains fed by jobs that may go away. This will reduce the amount of money available for fueling investments in domains, with the low end range taking a price hit... but not a big hit since they are low-end. I don't know if we will see major price reductions on high end domains like we would with some antiques and collectibles, but there is pressure even on the high end during recessions. In the same way that we see prolonged time on market for real estate as an indicator of real estate market health, we may see prolonged selling times as people worldwide tighten their belts in a blah economy. I hope I am wrong about this recession stuff... with an election year coming there may be some pumping by the fed.

Marc

Traffic domains will get a boost. Companies have to advertise their way out of recession. They will move online to get better value but they will still spend on advertising.

The Fed is already bailing as fast as they can but the US economy is sinking fast, and the British one seem to be following suit.

There will be a shake out of dodgy investments all round and lame duck domains will be no exception.

Sleepys · Dec 20, 2007

Rubber Duck said:
Most major Corps have their dot coms at Net Sol. They don't regard $35 a year as an impediment. They could move them to save around $25 dollar a year. Do they care?

I don't think that major corps drive the success of a particular extension. They decide whether or not they want to register their brand. They also decide whether or not they want to register a generic in that extension. I do not think that they helped drive the success of .info. I also think that $35 a year, even $25 a year, is a big impediment for a domianer with 1,000-1,000,000 domains. If .coms went up to $25 a year this year, many domains would drop because they would no longer make economic sense.

Alex · Dec 20, 2007

I think you should think what kind of success does .info have. Really? How many people know about it?

We are not talking about domainer to domainer sales. .info at the moment is gaining popularity, and it would gain much more popularity (amongst internet users) if some major sites would be established under .info.

But this is not the case. It is not the number of registrations that makes a tld popular.

Rubber Duck · Dec 20, 2007

evilopinions said:
Rubber duck I seriously wanna kick your arse...You just making me feel terribly bad with your names....

7 years and I can see 10 millions minimum....

I agree with Sashas and MWZD on the argument but I would have also to agree that some day Indians will use the IDN (hindi names) but I am pretty sure the content will be all english....

This also makes me thingk....how many typos can an IDN have .... :hehe: I have stopped counting ....

This however also brings us to one more important question...you own india.com IDN.....what happens tomo when the market blooms...wouldn't the owner of India.com(in real sense) come knocking on your doors trademark,trademark....

That is just a small sample of Indian names we have about 500 Hindi and several hundred in other local Indian languages.

Valuations are conjectural. I disagree, however, that IDN will be used with English content. That makes no sense. If the entire content of the Indian internet turns out to be English as is being predicted here, we are completely screwed. Not that matters too much. We also have good Japanese, Chinese, Russian and Arabic Portfolios. Russian is now actually starting to make money with the penetration of IDN supporting browsers. Hell when things really kick off I could probably retire very comfortably on Azeri alone!

Trademarks are not an issue. You cannot infringe a generic and non-Latin generic have the same status as English generics. They are also not confusingly similar. If you start trying to claim Davangari script domains just because you own something in Latin, all you are going to end up with is a big hole in your pocket and reputation.

Sleepys said:
I don't think that major corps drive the success of a particular extension. They decide whether or not they want to register their brand. They also decide whether or not they want to register a generic in that extension. I do not think that they helped drive the success of .info. I also think that $35 a year, even $25 a year, is a big impediment for a domianer with 1,000-1,000,000 domains. If .coms went up to $25 a year this year, many domains would drop because they would no longer make economic sense.

So you really need to wipe your memory clean and start over from scratch.
Large Corps stamp extension on the conscience of surfers. Without the extension mind-share that you get from usage by large Corps, you will never get significant type in. This is what underpins the dot Mobi argument. The problem is that nobody is really using and promoting dot mobi. Why should they? They will be able to get everything they need from dot Com, without the brand dilution.

.X. said:
LMAO.....My thoughts exactly

My closest friend in this industry, Is Indian, From India, But now living in the US.

It is some what comical, To see folks from other countries, telling people whom either live in India, or are from India, how their own country is.

Don't worry! I had same problem with Russians. The only things is that there we now have the proof. India will take a bit longer, but we always knew that. We invested Chinese and Japanese first, then we turned to Russian, then Arabic, and only then did we start looking at Hindi. We were under no illusions that the development of the Indian internet was lagging behind. But we are also under no illusions that eventually it will be amongst the most important!

npcomplete · Dec 20, 2007

Rubber Duck said:
...snip...
Traffic domains will get a boost. Companies have to advertise their way out of recession. They will move online to get better value but they will still spend on advertising.

The Fed is already bailing as fast as they can but the US economy is sinking fast, and the British one seem to be following suit.

There will be a shake out of dodgy investments all round and lame duck domains will be no exception.

Interesting point about traffic domains. I have lots of those, and I was just assuming that the ppc would tank along with the economy. Do you really think traffic domains will get a boost?

"lame duck domains"... you crack me up duck.

Marc

deleted984054565403 · Dec 20, 2007

:imho: .MOBI will fall flat on its face.
I think people will wake up about L-L-L (hyphenated) domains and how useless they are.

Sleepys · Dec 20, 2007

Rubber Duck said:
So you really need to wipe your memory clean and start over from scratch.
Large Corps stamp extension on the conscience of surfers. Without the extension mind-share that you get from usage by large Corps, you will never get significant type in. This is what underpins the dot Mobi argument. The problem is that nobody is really using and promoting dot mobi. Why should they? They will be able to get everything they need from dot Com, without the brand dilution.

I have not seen any extension helped by corporations except .com and maybe a couple of foreign extensions. If that means that your argument is that every extension is a failure and will be a failure, because corporations only choose to promote .com, then I have misunderstood your postings up until this point. If you are saying that some extensions other than .coms are going to do well, because corps are supporting and promoting them, than I don't know what you are talking about, because with the exception of a few who use .net or .org, I don't see corportations helping any extension.

I do consider .info a success. They have a ton of names registered are doing well in aftermarket sales and it seems like people are starting to develop them. While it is true that it takes more than a lot of domain registrations to make an extension popular, it is also true that the more that are registerred, the more either need to be parked or developed. Also if there are tons of domains registered, then their will have to be more renewed. If they raise the price so much that nobody renews, I consider that a failure. I used to buy a few .info's off of TDNam. I don't really think that hardly any of them are worth paying an $8.00 registration fee, though, so get almost none now. It is also true that aftermarket sales don't mean an extension will be successful, but they certainly help to legitimize it.

Finally, I don't see any corps supporting or promoting IDN's.

Rubber Duck · Dec 20, 2007

npcomplete said:
Interesting point about traffic domains. I have lots of those, and I was just assuming that the ppc would tank along with the economy. Do you really think traffic domains will get a boost?

"lame duck domains"... you crack me up duck.

Marc

Absolutely convinced about it. Those companies that survive recession will have done so through aggressive marketing.

Sleepys · Dec 20, 2007

npcomplete said:
I hope my prediction is wrong, but I think that the biggest flop in 2008 will be the economy, and that the general markets will be neutral to bearish, in keeping with some predictions of a recession. That tells me there are conflicting indicators that are speaking to the economists. The stock market has been highly volatile, which is consistent with conflicting indicators. I think the volatility alone will make many investors more conservative, although risk takers will become more liberal in an attempt to take advantage of the short term volatility. I think that this overall effect of the economy with increased volatility will have a partial effect in domain investing, with perhaps some tendency for conservative or weakly funded investors to pull out or take a vacation from domain investing. As people see large fluctuations in their non-domain investments (housing, stocks...), this will impact how some families will manage their future investments. I think this means that a recession or continued volatility on either a US or world scale could reduce the readily available cash that was fueling some of the more speculative investments in domains in the low-quality and mid-quality range. I think high end domains will do extremely well. Recessions are known for wealth concentration and I suppose this could happen with domains as holders/sellers of med-high quality domains sell to holders/buyers of high quality domains.

While I think that a bear market is possible in stocks, I don't think it would happen till at least the second half of next year. Increased volitility is a sign that a top is getting near, but it also normally preceeds the largest runups. This was true in 1998-1999, as well as before 1987 and 1929 (as well as our recent real estate bubble). We normally see two major corrections (defined as a 10% move or more), before a bear market, this being a result of the increased volatility. We have now seen one, even though I think it was only around a 10.2% downard move, and it recoverred the next day. I think that the best times are yet to come, I just advice to be ready to move out on quick notice if you try to ride it to the end.

I don't think that this will have a major impact on domains. In today's markets, people are always looking to get ahead. When one market fails, people flee to a new market, causing a bubble in that market, until it bursts, then they rush to a new market. When stocks burst, people run to bonds and fixed income investments. Then they rush to real estate, then they rush to collectables, then gold, oil, and other commodities. Then back to stocks again. If you think people are going to be selling their stocks, they are going to have to put that money to work somewhere. This rush to new investment opportunities even exists within a particular investment vehicle. First people rush to big safe stocks like P & G and Kellogg. Then to tech stocks, then to foreign stocks, and who know what else.

That being said, unless we see a global bear market in many of the major stock indices, I don't expect that it will have a huge impact on domains, as they have become such a global market.

Rubber Duck · Dec 20, 2007

Sleepys said:
I have not seen any extension helped by corporations except .com and maybe a couple of foreign extensions. If that means that your argument is that every extension is a failure and will be a failure, because corporations only choose to promote .com, then I have misunderstood your postings up until this point. If you are saying that some extensions other than .coms are going to do well, because corps are supporting and promoting them, than I don't know what you are talking about, because with the exception of a few who use .net or .org, I don't see corportations helping any extension.

I do consider .info a success. They have a ton of names registered are doing well in aftermarket sales and it seems like people are starting to develop them. While it is true that it takes more than a lot of domain registrations to make an extension popular, it is also true that the more that are registerred, the more either need to be parked or developed. Also if there are tons of domains registered, then their will have to be more renewed. If they raise the price so much that nobody renews, I consider that a failure. I used to buy a few .info's off of TDNam. I don't really think that hardly any of them are worth paying an $8.00 registration fee, though, so get almost none now. It is also true that aftermarket sales don't mean an extension will be successful, but they certainly help to legitimize it.

Finally, I don't see any corps supporting or promoting IDN's.

Corps have supported dot net to a limited degree. And it has been a limited success when compared with dot com. Dot org has some mind-share but not much. What were the other extension you mentioned?

Raising renewals on dot com is only going to cause a shake out of domains that really aren't worth anything in the first place.

There are plenty of built out website in IDN sitting there all ready waiting to go. They need they the off line advertising to kick start them, which they won't get until there is adequate browser support.

Sleepys · Dec 20, 2007

Rubber Duck said:
There are plenty of built out website in IDN sitting there all ready waiting to go. They need they the off line advertising to kick start them, which they won't get until there is adequate browser support.

I think that most major browsers support IDN's now, at least from what I hear.
And so it sounds like your prediction, is everything is going to flop except for .com and to a lesser extent .net, IDN's will also survive the shakeout of everything else, right?

Alex · Dec 21, 2007

Etab said:
:imho: .MOBI will fall flat on its face.
I think people will wake up about L-L-L (hyphenated) domains and how useless they are.

1. Yes
2. Not really. Saw many German and Polish regs. Will give this 2 years to see an end. But L-LL's and LL-L's will certainly flop big.

Jeff · Dec 21, 2007

Etab said:
:imho: .MOBI will fall flat on its face.

Flat as a pancake ... eta., April 1st Fool's Day 2008! :red:

:imho:

Merry Christmas. :santa:
-Jeff

hawkeye · Dec 21, 2007

Jeff said:
Flat as a pancake ... eta., April 1st Fool's Day 2008! :red: :imho:

Merry Christmas. :santa:
-Jeff

Biggest flop..? Easy. 50+ yr olds that need to consistantly goad others, and their interests. :td:

Rubber Duck · Dec 21, 2007

Sleepys said:
I think that most major browsers support IDN's now, at least from what I hear.
And so it sounds like your prediction, is everything is going to flop except for .com and to a lesser extent .net, IDN's will also survive the shakeout of everything else, right?

The only browser that doesn't support IDN is IE6 but Microsoft have still to even start Auto Updates for IE7 in China, Korea and Japan. The evil IE6 still dominates our markets, but not for much longer.

No some domains in alternative extension will be good. The best guide is whether they get traffic or not. ccTLDs should be largely unaffected on balance, but English.cn are probably pretty much doomed. Why do you think the Chinese are more or less giving them away?

Sleepys · Dec 21, 2007

Rubber Duck said:
The only browser that doesn't support IDN is IE6 but Microsoft have still to even start Auto Updates for IE7 in China, Korea and Japan. The evil IE6 still dominates our markets, but not for much longer.

I didn't know that. I thought that Microsoft released the new versions at pretty much the same time. I do like Microsoft. Please don't hate me for that :hehe:

Rubber Duck · Dec 21, 2007

Sleepys said:
I didn't know that. I thought that Microsoft released the new versions at pretty much the same time. I do like Microsoft. Please don't hate me for that :hehe:

I think it is more a case that you should be pitied. Basically the whole Far East Banking system was reliant on insecure Active X controls that are missing in IE7. Although the current system is a disaster waiting to happen they could not just scrap it because the Japanese and Koreans had not be proactive in getting rid of it, and MS was too arrogant to talk to them properly.

Auto Updates for Japan starts 13 February 2008.

It is game on in Russia, however, where they have been more proactive for fear of getting their arses kicked, like they have in Eastern Europe.

http://my.opera.com/FataL/blog/2007/11/29/russian-internet-runet-browser-statistics

Sleepys · Dec 21, 2007

Save your pity for someone who needs it.
I like them a lot more than many of their competitors in many areas where they compete. I think that in many cases they have gotten a bad rap when they didn't deserve it. I am not saying that they didn't deserve any of it, they did. So do lots of other big companies.

I have always been a huge Bill Gates fan.

Andrei P. · Dec 21, 2007

I'm Microsoft and Bill Gates personally fan too. Most of their products are still best and competitors cannot beat them. But comparing IE7 and FireFox isn't correct. IE7 isn't bad. It's a toy for children. FireFox is an instrument for professionals

Don't compare bicycle with a car

You can't say that bicycle is bad!

Sleepys said:
Save your pity for someone who needs it.
I like them a lot more than many of their competitors in many areas where they compete. I think that in many cases they have gotten a bad rap when they didn't deserve it. I am not saying that they didn't deserve any of it, they did. So do lots of other big companies.

I have always been a huge Bill Gates fan.

bricio · Dec 21, 2007

Etab said:
:imho: .MOBI will fall flat on its face.
I think people will wake up about L-L-L (hyphenated) domains and how useless they are.

i own some .mobi and i really dont know what will happen with .mobi but i dont think L-L-L are useless... 25% of al L-L-L are developed sites as they are a great alternative for LLL.com

ssamriga · Dec 21, 2007

Ergo said:
IE7 isn't bad. It's a toy for children. FireFox is an instrument for professionals

how is that?

Rubber Duck · Dec 21, 2007

.X. said:
LMAO.....My thoughts exactly

My closest friend in this industry, Is Indian, From India, But now living in the US.

It is some what comical, To see folks from other countries, telling people whom either live in India, or are from India, how their own country is.

Get him to explain this from Reuters (Date 18 Dec 2007):

http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-31035620071218

MUMBAI (Reuters) - HT Media Ltd plans to expand the presence of its Hindi newspaper, Hindustan, over the next two years to exploit rising corporate advertising spend across northern India, an official said.

The company plans to spend 2 billion rupees from internal accruals over two years to set up 10 printing presses and launch editions in Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal and Madhya Pradesh, Rahul Jain, General Manager-Finance, told reporters.

"The Hindi market is doing extremely well," he said, "it has never seen that (kind of) advertising coming in," he said referring to corporates targeting the Hindi-segment for products and services.

HT Media, which also publishes English newspaper, Hindustan Times, and business newspaper, Mint, has 12 editions of Hindustan, and plans to add 13-14 editions more, he added.

The company would also look at acquisitions in the Hindi newspaper and internet spaces.

By the first quarter of 2008/09, it plans to launch a jobs classifieds internet site with an international partner, Jain said. He did not provide details.

The newspaper publisher is also bidding for more radio licences, with plans to establish a presence in the top 10 cities, Jain said.

HT Media, which runs radio stations in Delhi, Mumbai and Bangalore under the 'Virgin' brand, would commercially launch its Kolkata station next week.

Andrei P. · Dec 21, 2007

ssamriga said:
Ergo said:

IE7 isn't bad. It's a toy for children. FireFox is an instrument for professionals

Click to expand...

how is that?

It's offtopic here but I can send you pm with screenshot of my FireFox and you will see it.

What will be the biggest flop in '08?

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