- Impact
- 146
Moderate boom, not so good ending.
What we have seen in the last few years with .tv is very much a repeat of the past. A moderate boom followed by a big bust where most of the .tv secondary market gets wiped out value wise. I say “moderate” because whilst prices go up a lot a great deal of it is eroded by the very high reg fees people are paying. It isn’t like in other extensions where the holding costs are far more “minimal” especially for the higher quality names.
The amount of people making a profit was still very limited during the good times, to the point where we had arguments about whether anyone was actually making money and even the top end was claims of people making 6 figures over a period of several years. Nothing wrong with that, but when it is the top end is 30k a year it doesn’t leave a lot or potential for the people at the lower end.
.tv speculation rarely works out well simply because the domainer is buying from a company that is already speculating. Verisign paid $50million over 12 years to get hold of .tv and their aim is to price things so they are making those speculative profits, not you. They need to because their investment is high. Essentially they are keeping the farm and selling the milk, can’t blame them for that.
Think of those premium renewals as “renting”, you don’t really “own” the name, not when you are committing to pay $500 a year for a name that may not even be worth keeping down the track. Speculating on premiums is a bit like signing a lease on a house, then leave it empty hoping to sell that lease to someone else for a high price later on. Rarely is that going to work out well.
Essentially if you hope to make money from .tv you hope to outwit Verisign at a game they control. If Verisign could do with .com what they do with .tv it wouldn’t be a good extension for speculation either. When talk started about Verisign potentially having more control of pricing in .com people start making arguments about potential “.tv like” scenarios, there is just very little money in it for domainers when you have the registry speculating against you.
A look back at the past
To illustrate how things really haven’t changed here is a great example from the prior boom, 2000-2002. This guy who named himself the “Dot TV King” eventually lost millions in .tv. He bought up tons of premium names and normal reg fee names as well. He also participated in aftermarket auctions, I remember him winning rockandroll.tv for about $1500, he had premium names like Beijing.tv and Advertising.tv. Some were sure he'd be the next gazillionaire. Eventually all those names were left to drop when the .tv market collapsed in 2002.
Note how the arguments quoted below on his website are exactly the same as what people said in the next boom, 05-07, and most people didn't fare any better. Some made a profit, cashing out to other domainers when hype levels were high, but the hype never lasts.
www.dottvking.tv Year 2001
If someone posted all that here today half the forum would praise them for being a "forward thinker", in reality it is ideas from Y2K, that is all well and good if those ideas are actually valid, but twice now they have proven not to be.
The next boom
When people start speculating on .tv again personally I think it will be the same old stuff for a third time. I think this market will see another boom/bust cycle so I disagree with those who think this market will never improve. However the same mistakes will be repeated again in my view ie,
-Thinking that .tv is a general use extension rather than a niche.
-That .tv is the future while other extensions represent the past.
-That there is money in buying up lots of premium reg fee names.
-That $18-$35 isn't much for domainers to pay for as a renewal on the non premiums.
-That .tv usage will grow quickly resulting in higher prices due to enduser demand.
-That they as domainers can easily develop lots of .tv sites.
All of the above are flawed arguments. I think the only difference next time will be a new bunch of players.
What we have seen in the last few years with .tv is very much a repeat of the past. A moderate boom followed by a big bust where most of the .tv secondary market gets wiped out value wise. I say “moderate” because whilst prices go up a lot a great deal of it is eroded by the very high reg fees people are paying. It isn’t like in other extensions where the holding costs are far more “minimal” especially for the higher quality names.
The amount of people making a profit was still very limited during the good times, to the point where we had arguments about whether anyone was actually making money and even the top end was claims of people making 6 figures over a period of several years. Nothing wrong with that, but when it is the top end is 30k a year it doesn’t leave a lot or potential for the people at the lower end.
.tv speculation rarely works out well simply because the domainer is buying from a company that is already speculating. Verisign paid $50million over 12 years to get hold of .tv and their aim is to price things so they are making those speculative profits, not you. They need to because their investment is high. Essentially they are keeping the farm and selling the milk, can’t blame them for that.
Think of those premium renewals as “renting”, you don’t really “own” the name, not when you are committing to pay $500 a year for a name that may not even be worth keeping down the track. Speculating on premiums is a bit like signing a lease on a house, then leave it empty hoping to sell that lease to someone else for a high price later on. Rarely is that going to work out well.
Essentially if you hope to make money from .tv you hope to outwit Verisign at a game they control. If Verisign could do with .com what they do with .tv it wouldn’t be a good extension for speculation either. When talk started about Verisign potentially having more control of pricing in .com people start making arguments about potential “.tv like” scenarios, there is just very little money in it for domainers when you have the registry speculating against you.
A look back at the past
To illustrate how things really haven’t changed here is a great example from the prior boom, 2000-2002. This guy who named himself the “Dot TV King” eventually lost millions in .tv. He bought up tons of premium names and normal reg fee names as well. He also participated in aftermarket auctions, I remember him winning rockandroll.tv for about $1500, he had premium names like Beijing.tv and Advertising.tv. Some were sure he'd be the next gazillionaire. Eventually all those names were left to drop when the .tv market collapsed in 2002.
Note how the arguments quoted below on his website are exactly the same as what people said in the next boom, 05-07, and most people didn't fare any better. Some made a profit, cashing out to other domainers when hype levels were high, but the hype never lasts.
www.dottvking.tv Year 2001
TV is the most recognized two-letter symbol in the world today. Take advantage of the future dynamics of interactive television, combining TV with the internet. Bring attention to your entertainment or television-related commerce site.......
DotTVKing is dedicated to offering the largest selection of quality .tv domain names on the secondary market. Many names are among the premiere .tv names available and most are suitable for major commercial websites. The main focus of these names is directed to those areas most suited for .tv: entertainment, movies, television, sports, advertising, adult, gambling, interactive, streaming video, news, and finance among others. If you can't find the .com or .tv name you want being available then dotTVking is the PERFECT place to shop for a name you need.
The .tv Corporation (.tv, the top level domain (TLD) preferred for rich media including video, animation and user-generated content.) is a leading global provider of Web identity services and the exclusive worldwide source for Web addresses ending in .tv. This has become the fastest growing domain extension in Internet history. The .tv domain extension is a popular choice for companies, entrepreneurs and individuals throughout the world who want to create the next generation of online experiences.
Each day, streaming media and other technologies continue to transform the Internet into a richer, more engaging visual experience. Only a .tv Web address has the unique benefit of distinguishing Web sites as part of this movement.
If someone posted all that here today half the forum would praise them for being a "forward thinker", in reality it is ideas from Y2K, that is all well and good if those ideas are actually valid, but twice now they have proven not to be.
The next boom
When people start speculating on .tv again personally I think it will be the same old stuff for a third time. I think this market will see another boom/bust cycle so I disagree with those who think this market will never improve. However the same mistakes will be repeated again in my view ie,
-Thinking that .tv is a general use extension rather than a niche.
-That .tv is the future while other extensions represent the past.
-That there is money in buying up lots of premium reg fee names.
-That $18-$35 isn't much for domainers to pay for as a renewal on the non premiums.
-That .tv usage will grow quickly resulting in higher prices due to enduser demand.
-That they as domainers can easily develop lots of .tv sites.
All of the above are flawed arguments. I think the only difference next time will be a new bunch of players.
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