LLLL.COM After 10 Year ?

[junaid]

hey

i currently own like 75+ LLLL.COM , and most of them are pronouncable. About 30% of them are pronouncable llll.com without bad letters. i'm planning to save these babies for 10years or so. plz give me an estimated price for a llll.com after 10years?

 

[VURG]

thanks everyone. after reading all this, i've changed my mind. ill now hangon to them for 2-3years when their price reaches climax.

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My view is this. In the past 6 years we have gone from having less than 2 million .com domains registered to over 50 million. At current trends, it looks as though there will be over 250 .com domains registered in 10 years time. Currently ~0.08% of registered domains are LLLL.com. If there are over 250 million domains then in 10 years >0.02% of registered domains will be LLLL.com domains. The holders of those domains then will be a lot more protective of their domains than the people today and there will be a lot more people wanting LLLL.com domains as safe asset value domains than there are today. Hence, the value of these names should rise to $XXX values or even $XXXX depending on a variety of factors.

I could be wrong. I have been wrong before.

In a market where the number of domains being registered is growing at a rate of 30%+ per year, LLLL.com domains looks like a safe investment. There are other domains that look like safe long term investments as well though. e.g. CCC.com, LLL.org, a generic traffic producing domain.

However, there is a lot of factors that play into the value of domains. .com domains could become number two to a future extension becoming more popular. The internet could be replaced by a better technology, etc...

 

[snoop]

I was expecting this question.

Pity you didn't answer it then . You've given some examples of 3 and 4 figure sales, I asked if you could give examples of how the wholesale price of the better quality domains has gone from $0 to near $1000 in the last 2 years. It wouldn't be difficult to find occasional sales like those you mentioned from 2 years ago.

If the investment growth percentage is the same, who cares how many names they own. It may be more elegant having 10 names worth $5000 each, but 260 names worth $200 each would also be nice.

I'm not sure we are agruing on the same point here, I am saying there is massive supply of these names. A buyout would be very difficult to hold over the long term.

I also think LLLL.coms will attract a lot of it, if for no other reason than the holders of more valuable names are not selling.

Market prices are determined by supply and demand, not simply supply.

?????????????????

My view is this. In the past 6 years we have gone from having less than 2 million .com domains registered to over 50 million.

Firstly this figure is incorrect, 6 years ago (Dec 2000) there was 20.6 million dot com's registered. So the numbers have gone up 150%.

http://www.zooknic.com/Domains/counts.html

Secondly growth rates tend to slow over time, alot the recent growth is due to traffic tasting, even another doubling in 6 years would be unlikely in my view unless reg fees fall or something like that.

 

[VURG]

Firstly this figure is incorrect, 6 years ago (Dec 2000) there was 20.6 million dot com's registered. So the numbers have a bit more than doubled in 6 years.

http://www.zooknic.com/Domains/counts.html

Secondly growth rates tend to slow over time, alot the recent growth is due to traffic tasting, even another doubling in 6 years would be unlikely in my view unless reg fees fall or something like that.

Thanks for picking me up on that.

 

[accent]

I'm not sure we are agruing on the same point here, I am saying there is massive supply of these names. A buyout would be very difficult to hold over the long term.

According to DYYO.com there are about 63,000 LLLL.coms remaining, including those in short-term "tasting" (55,000 currently un-taken). This is out of about 457,000 total possible LLLL.com combinations. So there are far more in investor and end-user hands now than there are remaining.

Granted, most of those remaining are not very attractive, but I would not mind a gift of QZY.com and I imagine you would not either. As the available LLLL.com names diminish (and the trend is clear and regular, see dyyo.com/analysis_remaining.php ) the "bad" names will look better.

Market prices are determined by supply and demand, not simply supply.

Agreed. The supply of LLLL.coms, while large, is finite. And, as pointed out above, the available supply is diminishing at a rate where extinction, should the trend hold, will occur sometime around the fall of next year.

I believe the availability of LLLL.coms for reg fee causes the perception of their value to to be a lot less than it would be if they were unavailable to reg. Once they are not available for reg fee they will become a commodity for investors in the same way as LLL.com, LLL.net, LLL.org, LLL.info, LLL.us, three character .com and most recently LLL.mobi, (although the last market has not fully stabilized).

There is a great advantage to these names for the investor, particularly the newer investor, in that the value of these names can be, to a large degree, calculated (see 3character.com), as opposed to Keyword.coms where much experience is needed to estimate value. This will provide a level of security to newer investors and attract them to LLLL.coms.

Firstly this figure is incorrect, 6 years ago (Dec 2000) there was 20.6 million dot com's registered. So the numbers have gone up 150%.
http://www.zooknic.com/Domains/counts.html

That is near the peak of the dot com boom, I believe (?), so if we are up 150% since then, with only a few signs of overheating, I would think/hope we have quite a ways before the next crash.

Secondly growth rates tend to slow over time, alot the recent growth is due to traffic tasting, even another doubling in 6 years would be unlikely in my view unless reg fees fall or something like that.

The internet continues to grow rapidly, and the mobile internet is just beginning. Regardless, it would take only a 15% overall growth in the registration of .coms to erase the remaining LLLL's. At that point there will likely be a number of sellers trying to make a quick profit who will provide some names for a short time, and then the natural price point based on supply / demand will be approached. 1/26 the then current price of a similar LLL.com, IMHO.

Which is quite a lot, considering.

 

[snoop]

Once they are not available for reg fee they will become a commodity for investors in the same way as LLL.com, LLL.net, LLL.org, LLL.info, LLL.us, three character .com and most recently LLL.mobi, (although the last market has not fully stabilized).

Like I've said before the problem is the size of the pool, the number of potential combinations is over 4 times larger than all those six extensions combined.

Regardless, it would take only a 15% overall growth in the registration of .coms to erase the remaining LLLL's. At that point there will likely be a number of sellers trying to make a quick profit who will provide some names for a short time, and then the natural price point based on supply / demand will be approached. 1/26 the then current price of a similar LLL.com, IMHO.

I suspect think you'll find the initial buyout will probably only hold for 12 months or less.

There is many reasons why the worst 4 letter shouldn't trade at 1/26 the price of the worst 3 letter .com's, firstly 4 letter .com have low enduser appeal on the whole, how often do you see companies using 4 letter acroymn's as business names compared to those using 3 letters? Secondly the cost of the reg fee eats value from low priced domains because the holdings costs are high in relation to what the name may be worth.

 

[cache]

I think the point is that when people no longer using typing into browser, then the
value of domain is not as important. It may be similar to stamp collecting, but it does
not bring in real value to the name itself.

 

[-db-]

I think the point is that when people no longer using typing into browser...

Forehead implants, operated by thought and eye movement.

I'm telling you guys... Children of the Web... like a Stephen King novel.

 

[snoop]

I think the point is that when people no longer using typing into browser, then the
value of domain is not as important. It may be similar to stamp collecting, but it does
not bring in real value to the name itself.

What do you mean by "real value" some domains definately have value in terms of being collectors items I would say, like many low quality 3 letter .com. I would say that depends on rarity and significance of the type of domain.

 

[YesBrilliant]

... way back 10 years ago?

Probably cost around $49.00 bucks a pop! Not the seven bucks or so I see mentioned.

Ten years ago a .com costed US$100. each! Per year!
I was living in Brazil, you could not register the domain yourself, only by your ISP, nothing was online/automatic, and it was soooooo bureaucratic that almost only monks were patient enough to go through the process. Obviously, I did not register any .com, only a .com.br in 1999 for my business, a domain that I have till nowadays and never dropped.

... how often do you see companies using 4 letter acroymn's as business names compared to those using 3 letters?

Business are starting to do so. Right here in Edmonton, Canada, there is a brand new casino and their website domain is... cnty.com, even though they are called Century Casino, a multi-million dollar corporation. Obviously, CenturyCasino(s).com is/are not available since 1999 as well.

What's the point? Considering the Internet will still exist in the form it is today, in ten years from now any, I mean ANY .com domain with up to 5 letters, not just the ones with 4 or 3, will worth a lot of money. A lot. How much? For sure the only thing we can do is wait and see.

 

[snoop]

I mean ANY .com domain with up to 5 letters, not just the ones with 4 or 3, will worth a lot of money.

ha ha lets just register anything then.

 

[YesBrilliant]

ha ha lets just register anything then.

You did not read all the posts, right?!

 

[accent]

Like I've said before the problem is the size of the pool, the number of potential combinations is over 4 times larger than all those six extensions combined.

But they are .com - still reigning supreme and with many times the registration numbers of the other extensions. And I am saying the price point will be much less than LLL.com, so there will be many more potential buyers.

I suspect think you'll find the initial buyout will probably only hold for 12 months or less.

Why? Most LLLL.coms are already taken and the buy rate is exceeding the drop rate. The pool of buyers is increasing in domains overall, soon this small (relatively) puddle of remaining LLLL.coms will be gone. The only major thing I see that could stop it is a recession in the world economy.

There is many reasons why the worst 4 letter shouldn't trade at 1/26 the price of the worst 3 letter .com's, firstly 4 letter .com have low enduser appeal on the whole, how often do you see companies using 4 letter acroymn's as business names compared to those using 3 letters? Secondly the cost of the reg fee eats value from low priced domains because the holdings costs are high in relation to what the name may be worth.

Renewals are an issue and have eatten up portfolios in the past. Push up the value and it is not such a big factor. Again, the current LLLL.com holders are renewing, at today's prices.

A lot of companys do have 4 letter names, and a lot more will find their three letter name unavailable or balk at the price and buy the four letters.