Online Predictions for 2010

maxeaus · Dec 31, 2009

I am currently reflecting on what i have seen regarding domaining and the Internet in 2009. I spent most of the time earlier in the year concentrating on other endeavours, and when i came back to domaining i saw little change in confidence in prices for example.

Things i have noticed though include a total collapse of the advertising model centred around google Adsense, i highly doubt the current system of paying cents for ads that advertisers pay dollars for is sustainable. I also notice every second website has banner ads for "weight loss" and "check my rack/abs".

How did it ever come to this i ask myself?

But i see things changing going forward into 2010, several things i predict are, a change in advertising towards CPA, video advertising, CPL and an all round combination of available advertising to improve customer/user interaction.

I also see Bing continue to take market share from Google, IMO Google need a total face lift and rethink in regards to how it treats its publishers and advertisers/advertising. I understand things are moving in this area.

I see no drastic improvement in domaining. Unless someone comes up with a substantially improved parking platform that is search engine friendly, domainers will continue to be on the fringe of the Internet. I see a continuance of end users to open their minds with country code domains, such as .com.au for example, it makes sense IMO.

lastly i continue to see mobile apps and social networking growth at the expense of traditional web space, it appears to me the web itself is stagnating whilst large numbers of web users continue to congregate in larger numbers on fewer sites.

Anyway this is my vision of what is happenning, please share your thoughts.

goodkarmaco · Jan 2, 2010

A new domain world order

I see the reality of the worlds economies sliding even faster over the cliff.

I see domaining as a vehicle that those who have extreme insight into what is really happening can earn fortunes. Just like everything else that is on the level of the masses, most domainers will see 2010 as a dud.

The sweeping changes pushed onto the worlds stage will begin to manifest itself and the world will be much different soon. The domain monetizations are not going anywhere for most domainers.

Everything is changing. Strong countries are becoming weak. Weak countries are becoming strong. Those who have will have it taken away and given to those who do not have.

Some domainers will capture this migration of the new world and will reap great rewards. These are clear thinking domainers.

maxeaus · Jan 2, 2010

Thanks, interesting take on things, care to share your thoughts on where the "great rewards" will be in your opinion.

enlytend · Jan 2, 2010

Things i have noticed though include a total collapse of the advertising model centred around google Adsense, i highly doubt the current system of paying cents for ads that advertisers pay dollars for is sustainable. I also notice every second website has banner ads for "weight loss" and "check my rack/abs".

How did it ever come to this i ask myself?

The advertising model isn't centered on Adsense (the publisher side), it's centered on Adwords (the advertiser side)

.

One thing a lot of domainers and Adsense publishers don't realize is that there are two major types of Advertising in the Adwords world: Search and Content. Search ads are the ads that show in (duh!) the search results. They typically have the highest value to advertisers - when you see big keyword bid prices being quoted, those bid prices are search network bids.

Adsense is part of the Content network. Advertisers pay less for content network ads - often MUCH less. They can pick and choose the sites where their ads run or opt out of showing ads on the content network altogether. This can work in your favor if advertisers like your site and request placement on it, but it can also reduce relevant ad inventory if they don't.

Furthermore, there is "smart pricing". If ads on your sites don't convert for the advertisers, they get charged less and you subsequently get paid less. Smart pricing is at the publisher account level - one bad page or site can smart price your entire Adsense account.

There have also been some recent issues with Adwords - like a rash of advertisers being DROPPED from Adwords altogether without warning! As a result, advertisers are deleting any adgroup with an iffy quality score (how does that affect Adsense publishers? Advertisers pay more per click if they have a low quality score), not starting new campaigns, going elsewhere ...

FWIW, I have zero ads for weight loss or rock-hard abs running on my sites (I just looked)

and my average earnings per click and per impression in Adsense have risen every year for the last 5 years. But I only run it on a couple of my sites, so of course YMMV.

That said, I'd like to see Bing offer a contextual advertising product for publishers (Bing-cents?)

maxeaus · Jan 2, 2010

I am fully aware of the AdWords/AdSense difference, i was speaking from a domainers perspective of having AdSense or a feed on a domain, though you have opened my eyes to several other aspects of the model i have overlooked, thanks, very interesting.

Will we see Bing with a new advertising model? Good question.

-db- · Jan 2, 2010

More "domainers" (sorry but the term lost it's meaning to me) need to develop their properties in 2010.

Develop. Develop. Develop.

Show the world you have some imagination and creativity. Don't just sit on your names. Build something with them. You will add value to the property, and you never know what other good things might come from it. Not to mention, the knowledge and experience you gain from doing it will pay big dividends in the future.

Most people will never make a decent living as a "domainer". But the world is your oyster if you learn how to develop.

gazzip · Jan 2, 2010

-db- said:
More "domainers" (sorry but the term lost it's meaning to me) need to develop their properties in 2010.

Develop. Develop. Develop.

Show the world you have some imagination and creativity. Don't just sit on your names. Build something with them. You will add value to the property, and you never know what other good things might come from it. Not to mention, the knowledge and experience you gain from doing it will pay big dividends in the future.

Most people will never make a decent living as a "domainer". But the world is your oyster if you learn how to develop.

I agree 100% - I'm fed up with crappy inconsistent PPC payments (0.02 when Google charges $10+) Google is trying to kill domainers off, parking companies don't seem to be doing that much for domainers either, no transparency whatsoever, you get what they say you get. It is also becoming more riskier to park domains, even pure generic ones.

Far better to try and earn 5% of a $300 sale than god knows what % of a PPC.

Some websites are charging advertisers US$ 2,000/month for a 728x90 banner - even if you charged $1,000 Per year I reckon it has to be far better than parking ever will be. (for most of us)

2010 - Develop. Develop. Develop

goodkarmaco said:
I see the reality of the worlds economies sliding even faster over the cliff.

I see domaining as a vehicle that those who have extreme insight into what is really happening can earn fortunes. Just like everything else that is on the level of the masses, most domainers will see 2010 as a dud.

The sweeping changes pushed onto the worlds stage will begin to manifest itself and the world will be much different soon. The domain monetizations are not going anywhere for most domainers.

Everything is changing. Strong countries are becoming weak. Weak countries are becoming strong. Those who have will have it taken away and given to those who do not have.

Some domainers will capture this migration of the new world and will reap great rewards. These are clear thinking domainers.

Yep, a new world is here and we have yet to see what kind of world that will be, the old Capitalism model is seriously flawed and has now come to a head, millions of people, many countries & governments are up to their eyes in debt to the point they cannot pay it back and all they want us to do is - spend, spend, spend

Big changes are imminent !

.

DubDubDubDot · Jan 2, 2010

gazzip said:
Some websites are charging advertisers US$ 2,000/month for a 728x90 banner - even if you charged $1,000 Per year I reckon it has to be far better than parking ever will be. (for most of us)

There is no work involved in parking a domain, which is why it pays pretty much nothing. Don't look too far ahead thinking about selling big money ad spots though. The sites getting that kind of money have been through many years of successful development.

werty · Jan 2, 2010

Rebound in Prices!! .Co Extension threat to the .Com

adeluxi · Jan 4, 2010

I don't really know what's going to happen in 2010 regarding the internet, but something has to be done about websites that get good page ranking only because of SEO techniques. Whenever I search for something nowadays, I often come across results that contribute absolutely nothing to the topic/question that I am researching. Obviously, they only get on the first page because of some software they installed or some carefully placed keywords on their website. When it comes to content, the are severely lacking and I often wonder how Google ranks them that high when they've got NOTHING on that site.

exsedo · Jan 4, 2010

A massive blitz on cybersquatting, changes to g00gles search results, and a surge in value of generic domains.

DNProperty.com · Jan 4, 2010

- cctld's continue to increase in value
- .com renewals will stabilize or drop (due to increased fees from Verisign)
- only roughly 5% of the world population has any high speed broadband internet, this will continue to improve (its about 30-40% in the US, which will also see major gains)
- to develop domain names you need to understand branding, positioning (check out Al Ries book on 11 Immutable Laws of Internet Branding)

maxeaus · Jan 5, 2010

I see one of the older established domain forums is on the market, a sign of the times?

Dear Members,

After over 7 years of running Domainstate we have decided to sell the site. It is with a sad heart that we have realised that it is no longer something we can commit the same level of energy as we once did.

Our aim is to have the site sold within the next couple of weeks and we are considering offers now so any interested parties please contact us ASAP at admin@DomainState.

We'd recommend that anyone with any particularly sensitive information within their private messages take advantage of the archive/delete facility within the private messages section of the user control panel in anticipation of a change of ownership.

We'd like to thank everybody for their contributions to the site over the years and wish everyone well for the future.

Domainstate Admins

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