Will .Com ever die?

[D. Wells]

I am a strong believer that ".Com" will always be King, but when I talk to a lot of other domainers, they suggest that ".Com" will die within the next few years.

Just wanted to here some opinions on this.

 

[hawkeye]

...when I talk to a lot of other domainers, they suggest that ".Com" will die within the next few years.

Just wanted to here some opinions on this.

Cause they probably don't own any .com's worth a flying-F, and are hoping the new gtlds will be their ticket to the 'promised land' they missed!

 

[kristiws]

I really don't know if .com will die. But I really believe in my opinion times have changed. There are thousands of tlds hitting the market. The ones I worry about are the ones Google, Apple and Amazon will have their hands on (tlds).

You know why? Because Google has already single handedly destroyed any need for domains to be specifically .com to show up on the top of the pages in their search engine. Google controls more than 80 percent of web search in the WORLD in certain countries. Apple tablets and iphones are the rage. More people shop at Amazon than Target and Walmart combined. Therefore if Google, Apple or Amazon win any decent extensions with their reach into the public and money they can totally change the industry of domains as we know it.

Everytime you shop at Amazon they can offer you "would you like to get your free .web with your purchase" hypothetically. Everytime the new generation of kids signs up for emails Gmail can ask "Would you like your own '.whatever' name It will be free with your email sign up".

They only need to do that for couple of years before over and over and over the new generation of kids is exposed to it. They don't really even need to market the tlds they win on TV or magazines They can simply offer it to their customers as they have said they 're planning to give them out for free. So then the new generation of kids will be used to .web .app and .whatever from Google Apple and Amazon. They each will try to up one another to become the KING of the "Worldwide Web" not that google isn't already but these are sensitive times for the "four" horsemen. Google has cash and the reach with their products and services to shape the industry. Apple has cash and the products to change perception of domaining. This brings them power. This is no verisign or network solution of 1990's that owned .com. So yes this can in fact destroy .com by Google Apple and Amazon's new extensions. My kids can say one day "mom I can't beleive you still use .com".

 

[NPer]

If I'm a small business and I can't get the perfect 1 word keyword .COM domain and have to pay $25,000 for a two word .com, why wouldn't I just get the perfect 1-keyword .PRO and build up the SEO and marketing with the money I saved?

Why .PRO?

People using your same argument are saying .CO.

People using your same argument are saying .BIZ.

People using your same argument are saying .TRAVEL

People using your same argument are saying .NYC

People using your same argument are saying .CRAP

So whose argument is more credible?

Are all of you right? Just because of what exactly?

So you are saying that end-users want to pay reg-fee instead because .COM is taken? Yet those using your argument are buying names in these CRAP extensions and asking ridiculous prices to end-users. No wonder .COM prices are going up!

You making are a scarce commodity even scarcer.

You wonder why end-users choose .COM over .CRAP? Here's the answer: if they going to pay a premium on a .PRO, why not just go for the extension that has proven to be successful, than one that isn't (and the .PRO is anyway priced ridiculously-because you and others bought it for resale.)

All these extensions are good for .COM actually... just make them even more valuable!

 

[ecalc]

If I'm a small business and I can't get the perfect 1 word keyword .COM domain and have to pay $25,000 for a two word .com, why wouldn't I just get the perfect 1-keyword .PRO and build up the SEO and marketing with the money I saved?

'You' probably would reg a .pro but the typical small business person wouldn't because he/she has never heard of .pro and probably never will. Step into the shoes of the small business owner. A kumquat seller. Hmm, I need a domain name. Google search: domain name. Top sponsored result: godaddy. Top organic result: godaddy. Click. Welcome to godaddy. Your new website starts with a domain. Search for a new domain .com (<- DEFAULT) go. Wow, somebody beat me to kumquats.com. Filthy squatter. Wait a minute, what's this, never heard of these but I can get kumquats.us for $3.99 or kumquats.biz for $5.99. Cool, click, click, click, click, click, click, click, thank you for your purchase, done.

I poked around godaddy to see where .pro is squirreled away. Couldn't find it.

During the 12-month period May 2011 thru April 2012 .pro registrations grew by 8002. During the 24-month period May 2010 thru April 2012 .pro registrations grew by 382. Go back 36 months, net growth 90. Look at the bright side - momentum is building. *cough*

source: http://www.icann.org/en/resources/registries/reports/pro/pro-transactions-apr12-en.csv

 

[DU]

There is no next King, that battle has already been fought and won. The battle is more for, who's going to be the best alternative extension.

The argument matters to very few people - those who have invested or hold a significant part of their future. The larger your portfolio wealth the more you have to lose. The wrong perspective is being used here by most people. It's not about "what will be the next big thing to make me a lot of money" it's about "what will be the next big thing that could COST me a lot of money". No one here is going to invest in the next big TLD names and make it rich.. some people with a valuable portfolio might lose a lot.

If you're on this forum asking about the future of TLDs you're not looking in the right industry, or, at the right future. The money will always be in entrepreneurship. The dynamics of naming and accessing information will improve and the goal of major investment to own that space directly competes with the naming space. Search engines and platforms want to remove the whole notion of "xxxxx.com"

The only survivors in terms of name are likely to be the top 1-2% of names which no-one here holds. This is because they are inherently brandable or usable as a platform or access to information. NewYork.com will likely be valuable even if the name space changes drastically.

"How much longer will it be before netflix says hey, we can have .netflix for our videos. familyguy.netflix. csi.netflix."

How come no one questions how we remember it's netflix and not netflicks? Because people aren't as dumb and stupid as domainers seem to think they are.

You have to understand, a lot of these big companies know a little something about marketing, something that seems to get lost on a lot of people. There is no need for a change, no need to confuse their customers, there is no benefit at all to do such a thing.

Domainers are always saying that businesses don't understand the value of traffic. It's almost refreshing to hear that some don't underestimate the prowess of some of the marketing agencies around the world.

Answer: you'll lose traffic. Pretty much everyone outside this industry assumes all urls are .com, thus if you have site.pro, ppl will more than likely try to access your website with sitepro.com

This is an argument hammered home by the big boys everyday. The question is - what is that traffic worth?

If I bake cakes in a little town - does it matter than 1,000,000 people come to my little cakes.com website? Not a jot. The domain is worth far more than my business. It's far more important that everyone in my little town gets to my cake shop. This is nowhere near as difficult as it used to be.

Not every domain buyer wants to buy the globe. They want to buy something serious, something sensible, something valuable to their needs. I am 100% convinced that I can buy ANY local company a domain that works well for their business for under $5000. For most? Under $1000. For a lot? Under $300.

or they'll forget the .pro & type in site.com. This is another reason owning a .com is an important thing.

It's important if you sell or monetize traffic. Some benefits also apply if you are a large company that can benefit from the traffic.

The only time you really have this issue to really be concerned about is if a LOCAL competitor has the same name in .com.

I would never say take TampaLandscape.net if someone had TampaLandscape.Com, for example. it's about knowing and understanding your market place. GreenGardens.net might be brilliant if GreenGardens.com is for some site in New York - they are NOT your competitor.

Most people can drive by a store and turn around and try again. The same is true for web searches. How many times do you think people search for a term.. not find what they are looking for and try searching again? Green Gardens.... too broad ... green gardens tampa... now we're talking. You're #1, you've got your local listing, your phone number is right there.

Most advertising is STILL word of mouth and local advertising. Most people do not run large global businesses. Then again - these aren't spending the big bucks on domains and aren't who we are talking about here. We are all talking about Ford, Chevy, Chase, British Airways, Man U, etc.

Interesting point. Search engines have, to some extent, made the right of the dot redundant.

The new gTLDs will make this more so. You don't need anything right of the dot. I've worked for companies that used the .COM for extranet, .net for intranet - they don't need that anymore. They control their own namespace 100% of the time.

Visit us at BankOfAmerica no dot, no nothing.

There's something that you are missing. The market position of .com means that people don't really have to remember the .com part of the domain name or url. They do have to remember the .pro because that's an unfamiliar TLD. The Idaho domain above has a lot of anchors that make it easy for people to remember and the geographical term immediately puts it in a context that they can remember moreso than a simple one word generic domain name.

Most one word names are TOO generic. We can talk all day about one worders but they are purely brand plays. No one looks for Books or Shoes, or televisions. They look for "A book", "red dress shoes", etc. keyword generics however are not marketable. No one really wants their store to be called "Shoes".

This is why things like CatFood.com aren't that impressive to businesses it's worth ONLY the traffic. Most people are looking for Whiskas or whatever cats eat.

I think it remains to be seen if IdahoAluminumCarburetors.com is more memorable than Carburetors.pro.

I know which is more meaningful. One is in Idaho and specializes in Al Carburetors.. the other is something to do with carburetors?

If I had to pick, I'd go with Carburetors.pro for my own business.

I'd go for it on my business card but I'd redirect it to the .com

Of course Carburetors.com would kick my ass by getting more traffic, and I'd have to compete like hell to compensate, but compared to more convoluted, longer, harder-to-type .COMs I'd stand a pretty good chance, I think.

This is only a problem if they are a direct competitor. Most likely they are an ad site and your best bet would be to put an ad for Carburetors.Pro on their leadgen site. If you can't compete, use them.

It's your prerogative, but why haven't end users been flocking to .pro and other alternate extensions if they are credible alternatives.

They are credible. They work exactly the same way as every .com. There is no real reason why one is more or less credible EXCEPT that people are used to .com. Don't get me wrong - I think that .COM makes sense (especially given the statement I made earlier with <$1000) but you can make good sense of .TV, .PRO, .US if you want. It depends on what entiry you are and want to be. I wouldn't put a lawyer on a .biz for example but I may put a handyman on a .pro. The markets are different the expectations are different.

A person comes to estimate the price of your new pool. Do you go with the one that drives up in a suit and bentley or the one that drives up in a truck with mud and equipment in the back? you have someone come to clean your fleet of cars- do you take the guy with the broken down looking van or the one with the shiny as heck ford diesel with all the gear professionally maintained. What difference would their domain url make to you in your recommendations to friends? All you need to remember is their name and location and you WILL find them because you WANT to. Different businesses have different needs.

It's also a question of credibility. When consumers see your business on a TLD that they are totally unfamiliar with, it's easy to dismiss you - maybe you're a scammer
You can use a .biz but you'll still look cheap. No longer viable when you run a high-profile operation.

This is true. I'm going to run a poll one day to prove a point. You need to buy an expensive camera for a wedding.

You can only go to the following sites. Rank in order which site you think would be the most likely to fulfill your need.

camera.com
Bhphotovideo.com
amazon.com
ritzcamera.com

I would bet that camera.com would be last in almost all cases for people under the age of 40. We've learned to not trust keyword domains.

I would not include .NYC in that group. New York has a very strong identity and if the registry does its job well, it will perform like a genuine ccTLD (rather than a repurposed ccTLD like .co).

More speculation on what will and won't work That's what makes things interesting.

The success of all these tlds, imho, will be based on what their business model is. If you must have a store/presence to be allowed to register a .NYC and it must be developed? Then you have something. If not? The whole thing will provide nothing better than a newyork.com or a nyc.co. Who cares?

The value of the tld is in the platform and in the method of use.

The internet is changing. Addressing the internet is changing. The structure, organization, and method of access are ALL changing. The needs and the purpose are changing. Most traffic on the interest will not be people based in the future... if the people with the money that create the platform .NYC for example do it right.. there will never be a need to register any domain with "ny" or "new york" in it. The problem is that you have to TRUST the platform and that's the toughest component. The internet is still for cowboys and will be until someone makes a bold change - that bold change will be greatly rewarded.

The internet is not trustworthy outside of known brands. That's why Amazon.com is now successful but JoesStoreSomewhere.biz isn't. What domainers have wrong is that its somehow the .com vs .biz that violates the trust. It's not. it's called branding, marketing and investment in mindshare. Yes. Mindshare. That's the most critical marketing of all... the piece of someone's mind you can convince to trust you. it's what Barack and Mitt are trying to do every day (but doing the opposite).

Anyway, that's my bullshit post for the year. There's always one. It's too long to read and gets ignored. The next post will be "I like .Co coz it's great" and Johname will thank me and if all is right with the world.

Bottom line. No one here has an effing clue what's going to be happening because no one here is DRIVING the CHANGE. If you are? Let me know, I'd love to be a part of it.

 

[bmugford]

I am a strong believer that ".Com" will always be King, but when I talk to a lot of other domainers, they suggest that ".Com" will die within the next few years.

Just wanted to here some opinions on this.

What is going to replace it?

Brad

 

[biggie]

when I talk to a lot of other domainers, they suggest that ".Com" will die within the next few years.

:talk:


i'd say, stop talking with that group

 

[zoomactive.com]

com's are already dieing.

Not yet they aren't, check here: http://www.dailychanges.com/

 

[JB Lions]

Gee, a 'creative' brandable 1 non-word .COM for $8, or $x,xxx for a two word .COM or $15 for a keyword .PRO, for my own business.... Guess I'll go for the .PRO. Google won't treat it any differently than .COM. I think Fniggles.com is still available. Got eight bucks?

---------- Post added at 01:53 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:52 PM ----------

Old .COMs never die, they just get outbred.

Right, and you've seen how many successful businesses go your route? And most businesses don't think little, just search engines. They understand all the other marketing out there and why it's better and easier with a .com.

 

[alien51]

Let me tell you guys as a domainer I was shocked that none had any top of the line names. Most of the names were LastNameLaw.com, LastNameAndLastName.com, LastNameLastNameLaw.org
So my goal about explaining all this: .com .org will be fine. however more people will become more and more and more creative in order to get their .com and .org.

Domainers are the ones who are very pricky with domain names and extensions. It's understandable, because domainers are salesmen.

But if you put yourself in the shoes of an end-user, a lot of them are satisfied with getting less-than-perfect domains. And they work out just fine for their clients and customers. People will just bookmark their "ugly" domains with no issues. Because the bottomline is "content" or good customer service, and people will bookmark you, seek you out from obscurity. Just like people (and the Interpol) seek out Demonoid.ME no matter what extension they end up with.

Brandables don't need .PRO, because the .COM is not even taken. Because few people think somebody would want to reg it. Let alone domainers. So getting a domain like smithlawpartners.COM would work out just fine.

 

[Kate]

What would really happen to .com if ICANN in the near future says the applications price to file for an extension has been dropped from 180 000 to 200 dollars per say.

While it can be expected that the cost of running a TLD will plummet, you cannot have an infinite number of extensions, for practical reasons. 200 dollars per year sounds very optimistic to me, in any even it's going to be significantly more than standard regfee.

What will happen to .com ? The millions of businesses that are already branded on .com have no incentive to move. Even the companies that applied for TLDs are not going to ditch their own .coms.

Why would anyone want to pay for a (geo).net name for example when they can get the same exact name in .web coming up? ha?

People who don't want to pay more than regfee already have plenty of alternatives.
There is an aftermarket for domains because end users realize that not all extensions are equal. Some are more established and more credible than others. New extensions are not going to change that situation.
By definition, all new extensions will be unproven. And we know that even 'backing' from big players is no guarantee of success.

In fact, there is no pressing need for new extensions. It's a money grab set up by Icann and vested interests. Now I'm sure many people genuinely believe it's necessary because domains have become 'scarce', but it's a flawed reasoning. When you actually offer new extensions to consumers, they shun them. They must be thinking to themselves "sounds like a good idea... for the others"

 

[DU]

I can't leave this thread without saying what I've been thinking for a while now.

.COM is a mirror to Steven Seagal's career

Started in the 80s
Got Huge in the 90s
No long the international star
Becomes irrelevant (?)


.COM is Under Siege
.COM is Hard to Kill

then

.COM is Half Past Dead

and is now just a shadow of its former glory

.COM is Expendable

 

[Archangel]

I think some domainers really DO relate to "Another Brick In the Wall." Probably 500 million noobs worldwide singing, "We don't need no ed-u-ca-tion..."

 

[Federer]

Speculating if .COM will die is comparable to speculating if telephone numbers or street addresses will die anytime soon.

You are asking the wrong question. The question is not about the death of a multi-billion dollar extension - .COM will remain n°1 for as long as the internet remains active. Period.
The right question is how many new extensions will fail - the answer is probably 98% for at least a million obvious reasons.

 

[Archangel]

If you think .com is a "fad" and that there are no real advantages of .com vs .anything, I kindly suggest you leave this industry now before you get burned beyond recognition.

Perchance envy is the culprit.

I would have answered sooner but I never saw your post.

My insightful reasoning quite simple. Com is just a fad.
It has no other advantage over many other tlds and in fact has
several disadvantages. One major disadvantage for coms
is the incompetence of VeriSign, its cost, the fact that
all the available good names are being hoarded by squatters,
and com registrars who are nothing but virus spreaders and crooks
are let free to run amuck by VeriSign. Registrars that are a lot worse then
Registerfly ever was.

Envy, like JB's mentioned:

Let's be honest for a second. Isn't the real reason most people hate .com, is because they don't have any good .com?

 

[ImageAuthors]

Everybody knows .COM will be over and done with as of April 1 at 3:14 p.m GMT.

At that precise moment in time, all the sites that had been following that outmoded fad of .COMmunism will suddenly metamorphose into .NINJAs, .CEOs, .COMPANYs, .GURUs, .ENTERPRISEs, and .VENTURESs .. or else turn into pumpkins.

 

[Kate]

My insightful reasoning quite simple. Com is just a fad.

A 25-year old fad. I'm sure there is a better word for it.

The real fads are facebook, twitter etc and those silly icons you see at the bottom of web pages. Likewise myspace was a fad. Fads come and go. Domain names are not new and they are here to stay.

One major disadvantage for coms
is the incompetence of VeriSign, its cost, the fact that
all the available good names are being hoarded by squatters

Neustar is much worse than VeriSign. As for the good names they are gone in .us too. .us is also subject to censorship issues.

If you believe that .COM is overvalued, why would you own one?
Especially when you can get great .US domains so cheap.
Can you give me a single reason to own .COM over .US other
then the fact that its fashionable?

The US is the only large country that shuns its own extension, and .us is a poorly run extension.
.us is not a good option for a serious, large-scale web project targeting American consumers. In the US it seems you must be on .com to exist. In other countries the ccTLDs are often favored over the .com for local use. But in the US the local extension is not perceived so well by consumers.

 

[JB Lions]

I am a strong believer that ".Com" will always be King, but when I talk to a lot of other domainers, they suggest that ".Com" will die within the next few years.

Just wanted to here some opinions on this.

Of course not. It's usually people who are new and victims of Gold Rush marketing, not so bright people etc. There was a Gold Rush, it happened in the mid 90's. That's it. It's easy to sell that to newbies, get there money with every new extension that comes down the line. There will be some people who make good money on some premium keywords, you can make some profit on some other good keywords, provided you have realistic expectations.

It's been around too long, it's engrained. The biggest sites, commercials etc. When they talk about .com dying, they probably mean the crappy .coms they registered.

 

[hawkeye]

I bet you say the same thing about lottery tickets.

At what point will there be enough alternatives that the mystique of COM wears off, at least to the point where they won't go up in price anymore? Is it possible that it will get so watered down and people so used to domains being dot <anything> that they can't justify paying an exorbitant fee for a .COM?

Sure, anything is 'possible'. But as corporations, businesses, etc etc, have been pouring and spending multi-billions of dollars into advertising and promoting their internet addresses with .com to the world's masses for 'years', it's kinda easy to see that they are not going to spend new multi-billions of dollars remarketing themselves with a new tld 'just because they'll be available'. Many may use other tld's down the road, but .com will always be their main go-to tld. By the time .com gets so 'watered down' to be irrelevant as 'the tld', it will be a 'long, long' time down the road and when probably no extension will be needed.

 

[JB Lions]

If I'm a small business and I can't get the perfect 1 word keyword .COM domain and have to pay $25,000 for a two word .com, why wouldn't I just get the perfect 1-keyword .PRO and build up the SEO and marketing with the money I saved?

I just linked you to a post showing you can get them for low x,xxx. That blog has those type of posts from time to time, just have to read them.

You can look just at the travel sector, as far as making up names. Travelocity, Expedia, Orbitz etc. Get creative. The most valuable tool a domainer can have, is the one between their ears.

As far as money saved, you should think long term. Think of lost business to the .com. How much is even 1 customer worth to you? Might be a life long customer. There will be some confusion there.

Just for kicks and this would be interesting for people to do, to get results. Because development plays a major value in an extension. I have a Stores bookmark folder, with places I've shopped at or I might in the future. 38 stores. Every single one of them a .com.

A small business is like a big business, they want to make money. They want something easy. They want something people are familiar with. As far as extensions, it's .com.

Sky, what's your favorite business on a .pro you shop with? I know I don't even have 1 .pro bookmark in the rest of my folders and I have way too many bookmarks.

 

[JB Lions]

"Unfortunately we're just talking out of our sassafras right now because we really don't have the marketing data or any great examples to analyze, do we?"

Actually, we do. It's called the market. You're giving examples that they can be used, except businesses are choosing not to. It's been available, what's going to change in the future that's going to have businesses all of a sudden running to them? If anything, with these new extensions coming, it'll be devalued. If a business doesn't want to use a .com, they're going to have many more alternative extensions to choose from in the future, some that might make more sense than a .pro.

 

[999names]

My friend is a lawyer. A few days go when we were eating lunch he was as usual on his iPhone emailing and texting. We started talking about technology and domains. He is familiar with domain names. I asked him, when the .law extension comes out do you see yourself or your partners switching domains from .com to .law.

He paused then he said "well we work with Latin America and if we get a .law extension then the Spanish clients might not understand therefore we have to get .abogado and .law together" which he said he does not think that they would do that.

I then talked to him about how many lawyers he has known who actually paid for domain names more than the registration fee he said he does not know of any. We then went through his 200 contact emails of his lawyer buddies to evaluate what domains they use.

Let me tell you guys as a domainer I was shocked that none had any top of the line names. Most of the names were LastNameLaw.com, LastNameAndLastName.com, LastNameLastNameLaw.org
So my goal about explaining all this: .com .org will be fine. however more people will become more and more and more creative in order to get their .com and .org.

 

[jmcc]

Most one word names are TOO generic.

That's something that a lot of domainers still don't get. The type-in nature of some of these domains has been overtaken, somewhat, by SEO.

More speculation on what will and won't work That's what makes things interesting.

It is an irregular verb: I extrapolate; you speculate; that domainer over there throws darts at a printout.

The success of all these tlds, imho, will be based on what their business model is.

I remember reading the application for one of the early gTLDs that had that famous business school mistake - defining its target market as a percentage of .com domains. That gTLD has been overtaken by events. And many of the new gTLDs will find themselves similarly sidelined but it may take between three and five years for it to happen.

Regards...jmcc

 

[999names]

DU you had me think bro, specially where you listed out those websites which one would you go to buy a camera from?

It had made me think because you 're right I would never go to a domain like camera.com it is very true I d think scammy sorry that is the wrong word I 'd feel it is filled with ads and it would be a waste of my time. Same with cars.com Although it is a legit site I was thinking I d go to carmax .com before going to cars.com
I think domains will go the way of coin collecting. If anyone has collected coins will understand what I am talking about. .com is prestige .org is trust just like ANA that grades coins from P1 to MS70 eventually in the near future there will come an organization that will grade domains I am not talking sedo or godaddy or estibot valuate estimates I am talking about an independent organization like ANA which you send your coin to grade it and stamp it and it is trusted by insurance companies worldwide.

It is a cowboy environment still in the domain land I agree.

Well said

 

[JB Lions]

"camera.com
Bhphotovideo.com
amazon.com
ritzcamera.com

I would bet that camera.com would be last in almost all cases for people under the age of 40. We've learned to not trust keyword domains"

Don't know about that, you listed a bunch of known sites vs. a parked page. More to do with marketing/branding/developed sites. Could easily list well known keyword domains like:

art.com
blinds.com
calendars.com
carparts.com
diapers.com
diamonds.com
dog.com
cooking.com
envelopes.com
fabric.com
giftcards.com
giftcertificates.com
golfballs.com
hotels.com
magazines.com
maps.com
perfume.com
shoes.com
ties.com
wine.com

etc. just a few I picked real quick from my coupon site. Those are all well known, developed sites with affiliate programs.

Side note, just checked those 20 domains. 19 of them are page 1 Google for that keyword, the only one that didn't show up on page 1 was dog. But at least they get the #1 result in Yahoo.