wow - great to see this kind of creative data-gathering and hypothesis testing!
I'm a "category 6" coLLLLector -> 30+ age, 100+ LLLL (almost entirely "line noise" WXQV etc)
still not sure about the logic behind the "October drop" hypothesis - given that most of us ponied up the $$$ to reg a bunch (in a hurry no less) in the last few months, seems reasonable to expect a significant portion of us calculated-risk takers will plan ahead to renew them. There might be a few "expected $100 for XYZQ now very disappointed and just letting them all drop" but that seems like the thin tail of the curve here ...
Also - the market is so much bigger than any of us, even all of the biggest investors posting on NP put together don't hold more than a few percent of the total 456,796 LLLL out there ...
hey - if you need to sell some, go for it. It's a drop in the bucket - and if it's a drop in the market, well that will be a welcome buying opportunity for some of the longer-term players - not a problem!
We're all going to be selling most of our holdings sooner or later, probably (but not necessarily) at a nice profit - depending on how long it takes for several hundred thousand end users to become part of the equation. The ebbs and flows of money changing hands between a few thousand resellers in the meantime are really just little ripples on the surface of a much bigger wave.
(And as accentnepal points out, there are a few big wave-making forces at work to keep in mind as well in the short term, such as the stock market etc ...)
Back to the poll and ideas for more data-gathering - would be interesting to correlate age with the "quality vs. quantity" dimension - ie, what is the highest $$$ amount you've paid for an LLLL ? (Hmmm - the answer for me is $39 - and I'm 39 years old!)
What is the average and total acquisition cost of your holdings? (For me, about 70 at reg-fee or less
+ maybe 40 aftermarket @ around $20 each)
Maybe the real question to ask is: when do you plan to sell ? Gets a bit dicey asking/answering that one ... but okay - personally, at least 25% of mine were purchased with intent of doing relatively quick flips (days/weeks/months at most) ... but I've been procrastinating pulling the trigger, actually continuing to buy a few more instead. While I'm looking for bargain "diamonds in the rough" or maybe a reasonably affordable "oooh shiny" semi-premium, I'm not anxious to buy many more "anti-premiums" - but neither am I anxious to sell any for less than $20.
Really should reflect a bit more carefully on my (seat-of-the-pants) "strategy" and expectations at this point I think! All in all I'm still reasonably close to my comfort zone - will be more inclined to buy than to sell if I see prices going down over the next few months. Not at all convinced that a big profit within a year is a sure thing though it seems like reasonable odds over the next 2 or 3 years, all things considered. (Or an interesting learning experience in the ups and downs of market hype and mass self-delusion at least!)