Why Future Trend Domains May be a waste of money

It isn't that getting ahead of a curve is a bad thing.
It's that, methodologically speaking, 'future trend domaining' as a practice by people who are otherwise unskilled at domaining is a waste of money and time. The result is a lot more money being lost than there is money being made. lightning strikes notwithstanding.

First off, most people engaged in 'future trend domaining' as a practice are almost always fundamentally lousy domainers to begin with. As is the case with everything else, fundamentals are what puts points on the board and dollars in the bank, before exotic practices are ever considered. Future trend domaining is a hugely fringe practice, like the guy who spends all his time on the basketball court lobbing full court bombs, but cannot make a lay up. There may be a time when that esoteric skill is needed, but he's not somebody who's ever going to start a game. That's what we see here. A bunch of guys who cannot make a layup, so they think that trying to become a full-court-shot buzzer beater 'specialist' will maybe get their name on a jersey

It's just a dumb strategy.

As expected, he best 'future trend domainers' are almost always the best domainers, period, no different than NBA teams don't need a 'full court shot specialist' since they already have a roster full of guys who don't need to specialize since they can already shoot everything else.

By the time the 'future trend'ers' come along spastically registering worthless domains, the small handful of domains in that niche that are worth anything are already taken by people who succeed at buying and selling the types of domains the 'future trenders' do not own, nor can they afford, yet these people come along and beat 'future trend domainers' at their own game, before it even starts.

Just like everyone else, I too had a time when I was starting out and registered domains that were a mistake. We all did. The difference I see in myself starting out years ago and shitty domainers now is that I aggressively pursued refinement in my strategy so it improved towards profitability. I studied, I learned, I listened. Few, if any of these people, are doing that. They're just wasting a few hundred, a few thousand every year, casting their fate to the randomness of 'the future' and hoping the winning lotto numbers come in. Not helping this is the sad fact that there are a lot of people who love hearing themselves talk, who are absolutely, positively NOT worth listening to in general, never mind taking advice from.

The whole 'future trend domaining' trainwreck we see so regularly on display here is a losing strategy and frankly, whenever you're openly and notoriously doing something dumb on the internet, eventually, someone's going to come along to point it out, even if it hurts your feelings.

Future domains are mostly a waste of money. But there are exceptions if you get one that is a revolutionary technology. The guy who registered 3dprinters.com in 1999 has one of the best, if not the best.

domainhacks said:

registered 3dprinters.com in 1999

Click to expand...

Meditate on this for a bit, lads...

Fonzie said:

Meditate on this for a bit, lads...

Click to expand...

If you think ahead, get a domain at reg fee that makes sense, it can be worth many thousands in the future? Some of these good domains that are selling/will sell, was somebody's reg fee domain at some point.

"most people engaged in 'future trend domaining' as a practice are almost always fundamentally lousy domainers to begin with."

Lousy domainers reg lousy domains.

"the best 'future trend domainers' are almost always the best domainers, period,"

Good domainers reg good domains.

Doesn't really matter if it's future, trend etc. Just look at reg fee thread.

JB Lions said:

If you think ahead, get a domain at reg fee that makes sense, it can be worth many thousands in the future?

Click to expand...

Definitely.

And, by the time it reaches the monkeys in this tree, it's already somebody elses old news. In this case, over a decade old before 99/100 of them had ever heard of its existence.

Worth noting that just because a technology expands and/or becomes ubiquitous doesn't mean that eponymous domain names are a worthy punt. There's always a core of prime domains that make up any field, then a huge step down to another small handful of marginal names, then a headlong dive off a steep cliff with a rocky bottom for everything else. What we see here is almost always 'everything else'.

We have yet to see a potentially paradigm shifting technology emerge quickly enough AND be synergistic with 'domain speculation' for this methodology to be worth dogshit, save for maybe a quick bubble in 'cloud'. Even that was just a lottery ticket with slightly shorter odds.

Most of these baboons don't realize their 'future trends' are actually decades long in labs, offices, VC firms, long before it hits CNN or Tech Crunch, and this dynamic is almost always reflected in the available domain name space. By the time its reached 'Theme Thread On Namepros" status, it's like being a century too late to a gold rush.

i guess i see the intent of a separate thread but im confused... so people who LIKE "future trend" domains are not supposed to be posting in this thread?

or just the other way around... people who dislike them shouldnt post in the other thread?

again i understand the intent but ill betcha both threads die within a few days and we can go back to talking about nothing.

mjnels said:

i guess i see the intent of a separate thread but im confused... so people who LIKE "future trend" domains are not supposed to be posting in this thread?

or just the other way around... people who dislike them shouldnt post in the other thread?

again i understand the intent but ill betcha both threads die within a few days and we can go back to talking about nothing.

Click to expand...

I don't really get it personally. Are we supposed to just have a discussion with a bunch of like minded people? That is not much of a discussion.

I think many of the deleted posts have valid arguments both for and against specific trends, and trend domains in general.

The bottom line is a bad domain is a bad domain, whether it is a future trend domain or not.

Brad

Maybe it's a matter of degree. Yes, if a domainer (good or bad) registers a name years in advance and that domain happens to be a good one in the (new) trend/fad that comes into its own, then yes, I can see it worth tens of thousands. That's just like any other investment.

However, today's domainers are no longer in a market where truly good names are readily available if you have just a little foresight. The result is mostly going after the "marginal" names, which still can put money in the bank, just at hundreds or a few thousand instead of $20K or more.

Almost all domainers, good and bad, know what a great domain is (show me someone who says earth.com or whatever is reg fee). The problem today is many don't see the difference between crap and marginal. Some never will, but hey, that's true for everything.

I'm all for future niche domaining even if its just for marginal names. Besides, one of those marginal names might be the next $50k domain 10 years from now. Who's to say until time passes.

Sure I can explain, the next trends thread was a discussion started to be about next trends, after 20 posts that thread was no longer about its stated purpose. It was not an appraisal thread, no one was asking anyone for their value on a certain trend, it was started by Mr.Curly so people could discuss new trends.

The thread broke down to people being called names, in the thread and in the tags. This thread was created so that people can debate Trend domains and go as hard negatively as they like, without name calling or threats. But people can be as harsh as they like.

The bottom line is not a bad domain is a bad domain, although I agree with what you said Brad. The bottome line was people wanted a thread to find out what new trends other trend investors were investing in.

To Mjnels your point about both threads fading out, MJ the next trend thread had already been done and faded at its stated purpose, after 20 threads the next 80 were name calling, and just off topic opinion. That was not the purpose of the thread. This is a big forum, like a restaurant, you have a right to sit at your table and talk about anything you like, but when you want to walk over to someone else's table and start rambling when no one asked your opinion that is different. So we provided two tables one where there can be full discussion and debate and the other which sticks to the stated purpose of the original thread.

Its a free for all when someone says, I just regged the3dmarijuanacloud.com I am going to be rich or what do you think ? Then sure that's one thread go full blast. But the next trend thread was looking for discussion of trends people were investing in, not who doesn't like trends and that banter stopped the on topic posting of the thread.

The majority of today's domainers were not active in 1996 and so they have missed the boat to some extent. I have

There are two groups of people.
The first is the realistic domainers. They understand they are late to the game, and the only way to make up for their tardiness is to invest in quality and make educated investments.
Don't forget that some successful domainers are latecomers. Frank S. is just an example. Other people entered the game even later (in 2006/2007).
They are successful because they are not fooling themselves.

Then you have another group that is desperately hoping for a repeat of the goldrush of the 90s. (Hint: it isn't coming).
When a 'new' extension is released, some of them will fall for the hype, the old trick works because that is what they want to believe. And there is no shortage of gullible people (No, TapTapBoomBoom dot kom is not a good domain).
Predictive domaining as it is practiced by many domainers is based on sheer hope and minimal research, it's the lottery ticket thinking (big money for regfee).
As said above, those who are good at predictive domaining are typically good at domaining in general because the skills involved are the same (above all the understanding of what end users like).
Predictive domaining can be rewarding but it is more speculative. It doesn't work well with blinders on.

mjnels said:

i guess i see the intent of a separate thread but im confused... so people who LIKE "future trend" domains are not supposed to be posting in this thread?

or just the other way around... people who dislike them shouldnt post in the other thread?

again i understand the intent but ill betcha both threads die within a few days and we can go back to talking about nothing.

Click to expand...

The other thread is for people who are generally interested in those type of domains and want to talk about them.

"Why Future Trend Domains May be a waste of money"

This thread is for those people who like to continually flame them or repeat the same stuff they usually do. That they are probably wasting money. But people are probably wasting money on all sorts of domains, so this isn't necessarily breaking news.

every domain originated from Future Trend.

it is either the chicken or the egg comes first

JB Lions said:

This thread is for those people who like to continually flame them or repeat the same stuff they usually do.

Click to expand...

so this thread is like the corner all the other people should go sit in and mumble to themselves.. in other words not a real thread.

the restaurant analogy isn't a good one - if i walk into a restaurant there is going to be a bunch of random people there so striking up a conversation about domains might seem a bit odd. however this would be perfectly normal at a domain conference or any other gathering of domainers - like say, a domain forum.

I did not mean they would be talking domains, I was talking about conversation in general.

This is the debate thread both sides can go at it without name calling, the other thread is to actually accomplish its stated goal, What new trends are people investing in ?

Both sides are free to debate here, just no personal attacks or name calling that's all.

This thread already has people from both sides as Verbster and JB Lions are not anti trend domains.

mjnels said:

so this thread is like the corner all the other people should go sit in and mumble to themselves.. in other words not a real thread.

the restaurant analogy isn't a good one - if i walk into a restaurant there is going to be a bunch of random people there so striking up a conversation about domains might seem a bit odd. however this would be perfectly normal at a domain conference or any other gathering of domainers - like say, a domain forum.

Click to expand...

Again, the thread starter began the thread to talk about those type of domains aka, what do you think some future trends are.

He didn't ask for opinions on if you thought they would be profitable from people who usually have no interest in those type of domains. They weren't there to discuss the intended topic. They came in with the usual, blah blah blah, you're wasting your money. That's not what he started the thread for, that's not what he was asking. If you don't realize that, you miss the obvious. It's called being considerate. Now when someone starts that kind of thread, "do you think future names are good to invest in", then have at it.

its more fun when people are throwing out stupid domains in the meantime.. thread goes on longer, is more natural, becomes more to debate.

JB Lions said:

Now when someone starts that kind of thread, "do you think future names are good to invest in", then have at it.

Click to expand...

those type of threads dont happen naturally.

All my posts deleted, even though i did not insult anybody or used any tag (in fact i have never used any tag in my entire membership at namepros, i even don't know how to use tags since i can't find this "feature" anywhere at all, any mod could check that and confirm it).

Not that its important or something, but you spend time trying to reply in a "reasonable" manner, and everything gets deleted in a sweeping blow is kind of discouraging.

GiftedDomains said:

All my posts deleted, even though i did not insult anybody or used any tag (in fact i have never used any tag in my entire membership at namepros, i even don't know how to use tags since i can't find this "feature" anywhere at all, any mod could check that and confirm it).

Not that its important or something, but you spend time trying to reply in a "reasonable" manner, and everything gets deleted in a sweeping blow is kind of discouraging.

Click to expand...

Oh no, is that true? Your posts made that thread worth reading. Could the mods not just have moved them to this thread instead, as they were worth saving?

Well, I'm glad I got to read them before they disappeared

thank you, Its really not important, they were mostly off topic anyway, i also understand mods not having too much time to waste on these issues, it was just a little confusing that all posts from all members (not only mine) were deleted instead of moving them here

The posts were not deleted when merging posts as I went through each one individually and separated, I hit merge posts and the software flaked, I let Eric know right away it was just a glitch with the forum software because I spent 30 minutes going through one by one.

So Gifted it was not intentional and I apologize that your posts got deleted I had three of my own that I was moving too, it kind of sucked after spending all the time separating posts.

no problem equity, i appreciate your efforts.
i also saw kates posts, your posts, fonzies posts, etc. everything deleted, thats why i was a little confused. anyway, forget about it.

On the news this morning, I heard Pizza Hut was designing drones to deliver take-out pizza. Whether that ever happens is up in the air [punny,eh?] (FAA rules, liability claims, etc.), however, it got me to thinking about drone domains again.

i started to think about the uses of drones and what could stop them. . . and the domains that might be worth a few hundred or more or whatever

For example, taling or stalking someone would be easy with a drone (dronestalking), but drones could help search parties, too.

Drones equipped with cameras could invade restricted flight zones to take photos of sunbathing Hollywoodstars, catch the Royal Family in England, videotape people cheating at golf (or cheating on their spouses), taking photos/video through windows, and you name it. So many possibilities.

And then i started thinking about how people would protect themselves from these "intruder drones," and came up with many more toughts for domains, which are going to be real in the future...everything from shooting down drones to interfearing with their navigation systems and basically hiacking them (drone jackers). Maybe something like DroneAlert, DroneDetection, DroneZone or whatever. Lots of decent "marginal" domins out there.

So which is best? spending $80 on 10 names and making $500 - $1000 each month, or spending $5000 and making $30K in 10 years? It's like driving: If it take 30 minutes to get somewhere by crawling in traffic for 10 miles or 30 minutes to get there the long way at 100 MPH with no traffic, they both get you there in the same time, but one is fun.

Lots and lots of possibilities.

I think the thing to remember here is, you are buying VIRTUAL REAL ESTATE!

We all know real estate will fluctuate in value and so will domains. Also, when you only have 33% of the world online tld's are bound to go up in value.

This is just my opinion and we all know what that means... they are like A**H**** , everyone's got one.

JB Lions said:

...
They came in with the usual, blah blah blah, you're wasting your money. That's not what he started the thread for, that's not what he was asking.

Click to expand...

What happened is this.
Such threads quickly become showcase threads. Soon you are starting to see more newly-registered domains being showcased, than discussion posts.

Then the more experienced domainers see the newly-registered domains and they point out that those domains aren't great at all or don't make sense, are a waste of money etc. Of course, the proud owners don't like it and will mock the skeptics and dismiss them as naysayers etc. I think I've been called a flatlander once (among other nicknames), it must have been in the .tel thread when I was telling everyone that .tel is totally worthless while the participants were patting each other on the back and drinking the KoolAid. Somebody has to tell it like it is :notme: