Good article, probably many .co,in today may be worthles than .in but if we`re talking about future i would not agree or disagree with those points it`s hard to predict. Anyway i bet .in will be much more popular than .co.in in few years. Why?
For many users (i suspect mostly English as they have their .co.uk) .co.in looks to be natural and the best India extension but i have another expirience from younger, developing Polish domain market where .com.pl was king until 2004, then there were appearing more and more .pl`s, and finally today there are:
extension / all domains / % of all / changes 24hrs / week / month / year
all domains 454161 / 100.00% / +493 / +3343 / +14916 / +146152
1 pl 272574 / 60.02% / +349 / +2209 / +10337 / +98106
2 com.pl 105749 / 23.28% / +71 / +423 / +2317 / +22735
3 net.pl 11193 / 2.46% / +19 / +92 / +430 / +3793
(...)
source:
http://dns.pl
so we have 272574 .pl vs 105749 .com.pl
And generally after years .com.pl worth less than 1/2 of same .pl
And my .com.pl domains have only 1/30 visits of the same .pl !!!
So .com.pl is populary used by firms but it don`t make it good enought to develop it in portal or other not-business-card-sites :]
I must also to admit, i don`t know India market and Indians habbits, but i belive that
even in UK in ten years .uk would be more popular than .co.uk if ".uk" would exist
:imho: Because in the Internet the shortest always wins at the end...