ATTN REGISTRARS! it.com domain sunrise starts on Jan 2nd! GET READY NOW

new gtlds .XYZ set to be TOP extension in 2 years time! OFFICIAL Countdown and celebration thread

Catch.Club Catch.Club
This may be news to some people, but I have been lovingly informed many times that .XYZ is going to overtake .COM as the top extension online within 2 years. Here is but a few:

xyz will be the first choice next 1 -2 years
I'll bet you right here on this date that XYZ will grow bigger than .com in the next two years, and then you, my friend, will have nothing but regret.

Well, I know that most people on here won't want to miss the boat on this one, so this thread can serve as a tracker for .XYZ's great rise to greatness and hegemony 🏆!

People said that when .top was the number 1 new GTLD in terms of registration count for a few months at least, that it meant it was going to be the top one overall, but unfortunately that didn't happen, >>all of the signs were there<<, but now LITERALLY ALL of the signs are there for XYZ and we're going to make sure it's on track. This thread is going to serve as undisputable proof of such signs to show that it's on track to being #1.

.XYZ has a chance because it's three seldom used letters at the end of a domain instead of a word like .TOP (or worse, the sickening and wholly useless .COM 🤢, for which it is now impossible to find a good domain) and domainers are saying it is so more often this time than with .top and they are more invested this time than ever before, so it must be true and who am I to say otherwise?

So this is it people... by posting this thread I am starting the:

2 YEAR OFFICIAL COUNTDOWN 🔢 TO XYZ's METIORIC RISE TO THE TOP 💥.

Post rules:
I would appreciate it if you could keep all posts in this thread to factual and numeric updates on the meteoric rise of .XYZ so that it can be understood by all. It is not a debate thread, nor is it to discuss whether or not this is going to happen, that is cut and dried now - it's happening, I have been told too many times. 2 years and it's done, we can put it to bed, I'll have egg on my face but we can all get on with our lives and make a killing as we've all been warned now.

NO thanks ❌
- Debates
- Slating .XYZ
- Lies

YES please ✅
- The number of days counting down to 24th August 2024
- Cold hard figures from reputable source(s) that compare .XYZ to .COM to show the progress of the inevitable and METIORIC RISE of .XYZ. Including but not limited to counts of: total registrations, developed domains, parked domains, registrations per day, sales figures and likelihood of reaching goal
- Include sources
- Whether it is on track to being the TOP extension or not given the figures

NB: The examples given are for representative purposes only, please don't goad them, this post isn't intended to target them, it's not that serious.
 
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The views expressed on this page by users and staff are their own, not those of NamePros.

Recons.Com

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Verisign is a public company so it has to report any adverse data and its impact on earnings. The problem with thinking only of the impact of price changes on a TLD is that economic conditions will have more of an impact when the price increase is small and gradual.

The .COM has an exposure to the Chinese market and the renewals in that market tend to be lower than renewals in the US or the EU. Outside of large portfolio owners and domainers, most registrants will pay slight price increases. It is one of those weird counter-intuitive effects where a registrant will begin to think of their domain name as being more valuable because they pay more for it. The .INFO and .BIZ have also increased renewal fees in the last few years but they are non-core gTLDs. That has had the effect of splitting these gTLDs into a solid "brand protection" segment and a one-year-wonder segment that does not renew as well. Even these are not as exposed as .XYZ gTLD.

The .XYZ's Y2 (new in last 2 years) percentage is 90.77%. The registrations for 2021 are going through their renewal/deletion cycle. It doesn't have the registration depth (and repeat renewals) of the legacy gTLDs. It has to keep getting new registrations to replace the larger numbers of registrations that do not renew each year. This is what makes it very difficult for .XYZ to become a .COMkiller.

Regards...jmcc

I don't know where your assumptions are coming from.

Unless you have some facts showing this "counter-intuitive" effect, the normal reaction to price increase is reduction in demand. It is called price elasticity.

It has already shown itself with .net when the price experiments of verisign took away all growth momentum from .net.

And it will show again with .com

No need to reference to overall economy about it. That 14.5% increase is no peanuts. Just for HD, that will result in around $9 million a year. Personally for me, compared to pricing that was there just a year ago, the new bill will add to extra $25k/year.
 
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I don't know where your assumptions are coming from.
Over 20 years worth of data, measuring growth and decline in TLDs, the effects of discounting and prices rises and, most importantly, measuring renewal rates at a domain name level rather than from registry reports. That and a lot of hard work trying to figure out what happens in TLDs. :)

Unless you have some facts showing this "counter-intuitive" effect, the normal reaction to price increase is reduction in demand. It is called price elasticity.
People will value a domain name more if they pay more for it. It is the Sunk Cost Fallacy at work for a lot of these unused or undeveloped registrations. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_cost ). There is also a Fear Of Missing Out effect with some domainers holding on to domain names because they fear that someone else will register them and sell them for a large profit.

Many of the owners of single domain names will have their domain names on auto-renewal. If they are using their domain name for a website or e-mail, they are effectively locked in to the price increases because the cost of switching is much higher than the price increase. This creates a stable core of registrations in successful TLDs.

What is happening at the moment is that .COM and many other TLDs are experiencing higher than usual deletions due to Covid registrations from 2020 and 2021 being deleted. These are not typically being deleted because of price increases. They are being deleted because the registrants thought that they could make businesses online. Many could not transfer offline businesses successfully to online businesses. The wider economic effects of this are also visible. Wix (a company providing DIY web development and hosting services) had bad financial results as the Covid spike of 2020/2021 faded and demand for its services declined. Shopify, a company that provides e-commerce services for websites laid off a lot of people a few months ago and its CEO blamed this on making the wrong bet over Covid spike and the assumption that the boost in registrations and people setting up online shops would continue indefinitely. ( https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-of-staff-with-most-workers-gone-by-day-s-end ) Some of the EU ccTLDs have also seen a similar decline with Covid registrations washing out of their zones.

It has already shown itself with .net when the price experiments of verisign took away all growth momentum from .net.
The .NET has been in trouble since around 2005. It was typically an alternative to .COM and the ccTLDs had not taken off. With Domain Tasting, the ccTLDs became a viable option outside of the US and a lot of new registrations switched to these ccTLDs. The high volumes of Domain Tasting obscured .NET's problems for a few years but when it stopped, the new registration volume in .NET slowed. Much of .NET is based on brand protection registrations with registrants owning the equivalent .COM domain name. These registrations tend to renew well and will continue to do so as long as the TLD remains relevant.

And it will show again with .com
The .COM is a single TLD but it is a composite market of many country level markets and a smaller global market. The biggest market in .COM is that of the USA. Renewal rates for registrations at the country level tend to follow the economics of these markets. The US, the EU, the UK, AU will generally have better renewal rates than CN or some other countries. Throw in the discounting offers and it is not unusual to see some registrars with lower renewal rates than others in the same country. Discounted registrations do not renew as well as full-fee registrations. The more extreme version can be seen in the new gTLDs with a non-renewal rate of over 80% in some new gTLDs.

No need to reference to overall economy about it. That 14.5% increase is no peanuts. Just for HD, that will result in around $9 million a year. Personally for me, compared to pricing that was there just a year ago, the new bill will add to extra $25k/year.
Approximately 9% of .COM is on For Sale/Auction sites. Apart from the premium registrations, there is a lot of speculative activity there and as a category, a lot of the non-premium registrations do not get renewed after failing to sell. HD and others will, if they think that their domain names are valuable enough, pay the increases but the larger operators will have their own registrar connections allowing them to just pay the increase without any additional fees. For non-domainer and non-auction/sales operators, the price increases will get lost in the rising cost of living and doing business. Some of them will drop domain names. This is the breakdown on .COM deletions from August by their last addition to the zone (lower limit of 2012):
2022: 3.00%
2021: 56.51%
2020: 16.78%
2019: 6.89%
2018: 4.16%
2017: 2.89%
2016: 2.04%
2015: 1.49%
2014: 1.13%
2013: 0.84%
2012: 0.97%

The bulk is concentrated over 2021 and 2020 as some of them are new registrations going through their first renewals. If the effect of the price increases is going to be as widespread as you think then the deletions of registrations prior to 2020 will increase across the board.

The estimated registration age breakdowns for the .COM zone grouped by 2, 5, 10, 15 and 20 years are:
Y2 (last 2 years): 33.08%
Y5 (last 5 years): 58.74%
Y10 (last 10 years): 78.87%
Y15 (last 15 years): 89.95%
Y20 (last 20 years): 96.55%

Once a registration goes through about 2 renewals, it will generally keep renewing. Most registries make more money from renewals than they do from new registrations. The registries understand this and that's why they are careful with price increases.

When a gTLD starts to lose its position, the registry will apply a golden handcuffs strategy to lock in brand protection registrations by increasing the renewal fee while keeping the new registration fee low. This is happening with .BIZ and .INFO at the moment. A variation happens with the new gTLDs in that a small percentage of the heavily discounted registrations will renew at full fee. The .XYZ registry has been one of the more successful at using the discounting model to build its zone.

From this morning's .COM count, the zone total is still below that of 01 June 2022.

Regards...jmcc
 
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Recons.Com

Top Member
Impact
18,410
Over 20 years worth of data, measuring growth and decline in TLDs, the effects of discounting and prices rises and, most importantly, measuring renewal rates at a domain name level rather than from registry reports. That and a lot of hard work trying to figure out what happens in TLDs. :)

People will value a domain name more if they pay more for it. It is the Sunk Cost Fallacy at work for a lot of these unused or undeveloped registrations. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_cost ). There is also a Fear Of Missing Out effect with some domainers holding on to domain names because they fear that someone else will register them and sell them for a large profit.

Many of the owners of single domain names will have their domain names on auto-renewal. If they are using their domain name for a website or e-mail, they are effectively locked in to the price increases because the cost of switching is much higher than the price increase. This creates a stable core of registrations in successful TLDs.

What is happening at the moment is that .COM and many other TLDs are experiencing higher than usual deletions due to Covid registrations from 2020 and 2021 being deleted. These are not typically being deleted because of price increases. They are being deleted because the registrants thought that they could make businesses online. Many could not transfer offline businesses successfully to online businesses. The wider economic effects of this are also visible. Wix (a company providing DIY web development and hosting services) had bad financial results as the Covid spike of 2020/2021 faded and demand for its services declined. Shopify, a company that provides e-commerce services for websites laid off a lot of people a few months ago and its CEO blamed this on making the wrong bet over Covid spike and the assumption that the boost in registrations and people setting up online shops would continue indefinitely. ( https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-of-staff-with-most-workers-gone-by-day-s-end ) Some of the EU ccTLDs have also seen a similar decline with Covid registrations washing out of their zones.

The .NET has been in trouble since around 2005. It was typically an alternative to .COM and the ccTLDs had not taken off. With Domain Tasting, the ccTLDs became a viable option outside of the US and a lot of new registrations switched to these ccTLDs. The high volumes of Domain Tasting obscured .NET's problems for a few years but when it stopped, the new registration volume in .NET slowed. Much of .NET is based on brand protection registrations with registrants owning the equivalent .COM domain name. These registrations tend to renew well and will continue to do so as long as the TLD remains relevant.

The .COM is a single TLD but it is a composite market of many country level markets and a smaller global market. The biggest market in .COM is that of the USA. Renewal rates for registrations at the country level tend to follow the economics of these markets. The US, the EU, the UK, AU will generally have better renewal rates than CN or some other countries. Throw in the discounting offers and it is not unusual to see some registrars with lower renewal rates than others in the same country. Discounted registrations do not renew as well as full-fee registrations. The more extreme version can be seen in the new gTLDs with a non-renewal rate of over 80% in some new gTLDs.

Approximately 9% of .COM is on For Sale/Auction sites. Apart from the premium registrations, there is a lot of speculative activity there and as a category, a lot of the non-premium registrations do not get renewed after failing to sell. HD and others will, if they think that their domain names are valuable enough, pay the increases but the larger operators will have their own registrar connections allowing them to just pay the increase without any additional fees. For non-domainer and non-auction/sales operators, the price increases will get lost in the rising cost of living and doing business. Some of them will drop domain names. This is the breakdown on .COM deletions from August by their last addition to the zone (lower limit of 2012):
2022: 3.00%
2021: 56.51%
2020: 16.78%
2019: 6.89%
2018: 4.16%
2017: 2.89%
2016: 2.04%
2015: 1.49%
2014: 1.13%
2013: 0.84%
2012: 0.97%

The bulk is concentrated over 2021 and 2020 as some of them are new registrations going through their first renewals. If the effect of the price increases is going to be as widespread as you think then the deletions of registrations prior to 2020 will increase across the board.

The estimated registration age breakdowns for the .COM zone grouped by 2, 5, 10, 15 and 20 years are:
Y2 (last 2 years): 33.08%
Y5 (last 5 years): 58.74%
Y10 (last 10 years): 78.87%
Y15 (last 15 years): 89.95%
Y20 (last 20 years): 96.55%

Once a registration goes through about 2 renewals, it will generally keep renewing. Most registries make more money from renewals than they do from new registrations. The registries understand this and that's why they are careful with price increases.

When a gTLD starts to lose its position, the registry will apply a golden handcuffs strategy to lock in brand protection registrations by increasing the renewal fee while keeping the new registration fee low. This is happening with .BIZ and .INFO at the moment. A variation happens with the new gTLDs in that a small percentage of the heavily discounted registrations will renew at full fee. The .XYZ registry has been one of the more successful at using the discounting model to build its zone.

From this morning's .COM count, the zone total is still below that of 01 June 2022.

Regards...jmcc

The table with most deletions being from 1-2 year old names could be explained by ... quality. The older names tend to be of higher quality, so no one will drop them over 14.5% price increase. While those 2020, 2021 handregs are, for most, totally replaceable and harder to sell (if owned by reseller)
 
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The table with most deletions being from 1-2 year old names could be explained by ... quality. The older names tend to be of higher quality, so no one will drop them over 14.5% price increase. While those 2020, 2021 handregs are, for most, totally replaceable and harder to sell (if owned by reseller)
The typical first year renewal rate for .COM is between 54% to 57%. When the Covid deletions started hitting the zone, the first renewal year rate dropped to close to 50%.

Discounting plays a far bigger part in non-renewals than domaining. With a discounted registration, the renewal is typically at full fee. If the registrant hasn't developed the domain or used it, it is easier for them to drop it rather than renew it. The registry and the registrars use it as a means of acquiring customers and then upselling them on hosting and other services. Discounted registrations don't renew at the same rate as full fee registrations. Domaining is only part of the .COM ecology. Due to Covid, the years 2020 and 2021 were abnormal for .COM and many other TLDs.

There is also the war in Ukraine and its effect on energy prices. That's already impacting hosting fees. It is also impacting the cost of living and some electricity suppliers in Europe have already increased prices by over 30% for domestic users. That economic effect will feed into the gTLDs and the ccTLDs and domain names that may have been marginally profitable in terms of parking may get dropped by domainers but outside Domaining, there is going to be a lot of rationalisation of registration portfolios by small businesses. For a registry, losing domainer registrations is not a problem. When a TLD starts to lose small business registrations, it generally worries the management because a fall in Web Usage generally follows due to disappearing websites.

Regards...jmcc
 
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redemo

Mug RuithTop Member
Impact
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alcy

Restricted (15-30%)
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redemo

Mug RuithTop Member
Impact
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.xyz is definitely over-taking .com it's had a grand total of seven out of the top one hundred domain names sold this year https://namebio.com/top-100-domain-name-sales-2022 including none in the top twenty. Definitely going places!

RankDomainPriceDateVenue
#1nfts.com$15,000,0002022-07-31Domainer.com
#2connect.com$10,000,0002022-04-15Private
#3it.com$3,800,0002022-06-19Booth.com
#4chill.com$1,600,0002022-07-03Private
#5call.com$1,600,0002022-08-11Sedo
#6gems.com$1,500,0002022-04-24VIP Brokerage
#7unlock.com$1,228,2002022-01-16BestWeb.com
#8stable.com$1,008,9252022-02-13NewReach.com
#9biontech.com$950,0002022-03-27Pvt Sale
#10bankfirst.com$800,0002022-01-30Pvt Sale
#11yachts.com$600,0002022-06-13Sedo
#12iw.com$570,0002022-06-19NameExperts
#13gcp.com$550,0002022-03-29Sedo
#14lnw.com$475,0002022-04-10Pvt Sale
#15ddl.com$359,0002022-07-17Pvt Sale
#16grt.com$336,6002022-07-17Pvt Sale
#17break.com$315,0002022-08-11Namejar.com
#18801.com$313,0002022-08-24GoDaddy
#19oet.com$300,0002022-05-22GetYourDomain
#20bobber.com$250,0002022-04-24NameExperts
 
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Centauri

Established Member
Impact
208
just an obversation I want to share here:

Very often, com/xyz names are taken, while no one seems to care about net/org.
Anyone made the same experience?!

Seems to be due to the low-cost fee for xyz ($2) I guess... compared to net/org.

That's just an example, but it happens to me once in a while to see the same with other names.

web3digi.png
 
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Mkt Sales Leads

Established Member
Impact
868
just an obversation I want to share here:

Very often, com/xyz names are taken, while no one seems to care about net/org.
Anyone made the same experience?!

Seems to be due to the low-cost fee for xyz ($2) I guess... compared to net/org.

That's just an example, but it happens to me once in a while to see the same with other names.

Show attachment 222478

Org seems to be more attractive generally than .net, esp since Crypto companies have used .org (in addition to nonprofits).
Org also seems more 'authoritative' than net which screams 'old fashioned'.
 
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Sam1234

Top Member
Impact
560
just an obversation I want to share here:

Very often, com/xyz names are taken, while no one seems to care about net/org.
Anyone made the same experience?!

Seems to be due to the low-cost fee for xyz ($2) I guess... compared to net/org.

That's just an example, but it happens to me once in a while to see the same with other names.

Show attachment 222478
I feel like Web3Digi is probably not a very popular set of keywords. You can see that web3digi.xyz is for sale with a price. Perhaps both the COM and XYZ were bought by a single domainer who thought it was a good name and also bought into the XYZ hype, and so bought both COM and XYZ. He thinks XYZ is worth less than COM so he put a price on XYZ and put offers on COM.

I look at https://www.statista.com/statistics/265677/number-of-internet-top-level-domains-worldwide/ (not sure if this is a good source) and ORG and NET are sitting pretty at #2 and #4. I don't see XYZ on the list.
 
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Centauri

Established Member
Impact
208
I feel like Web3Digi is probably not a very popular set of keywords. You can see that web3digi.xyz is for sale with a price. Perhaps both the COM and XYZ were bought by a single domainer who thought it was a good name and also bought into the XYZ hype, and so bought both COM and XYZ. He thinks XYZ is worth less than COM so he put a price on XYZ and put offers on COM.

I look at https://www.statista.com/statistics/265677/number-of-internet-top-level-domains-worldwide/ (not sure if this is a good source) and ORG and NET are sitting pretty at #2 and #4. I don't see XYZ on the list.
Well yeah,
I solely searched for web3/nft/metaverse domains.
So it's no wonder why so many com as well as xyz are taken at the same time.
However, I think this is also a question of price.
As long as xyz stays that cheap 😉
 
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DomainBoxio

domainbox.ioTop Member
Impact
876
Wow! Historic times we are living in.

Some other up and comers:
.cyou
.sbs
 
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alcy

Restricted (15-30%)
Impact
34,684
Wow! Historic times we are living in.

Some other up and comers:
.cyou
.sbs

ya man u tell em... you sbs and xyz are definitely history makers lol
 
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ThatNameGuy

Restricted (15-30%)
Impact
1,896
This may be news to some people, but I have been lovingly informed many times that .XYZ is going to overtake .COM as the top extension online within 2 years. Here is but a few:




Well, I know that most people on here won't want to miss the boat on this one, so this thread can serve as a tracker for .XYZ's great rise to greatness and hegemony 🏆!

People said that when .top was the number 1 new GTLD in terms of registration count for a few months at least, that it meant it was going to be the top one overall, but unfortunately that didn't happen, >>all of the signs were there<<, but now LITERALLY ALL of the signs are there for XYZ and we're going to make sure it's on track. This thread is going to serve as undisputable proof of such signs to show that it's on track to being #1.

.XYZ has a chance because it's three seldom used letters at the end of a domain instead of a word like .TOP (or worse, the sickening and wholly useless .COM 🤢, for which it is now impossible to find a good domain) and domainers are saying it is so more often this time than with .top and they are more invested this time than ever before, so it must be true and who am I to say otherwise?

So this is it people... by posting this thread I am starting the:

2 YEAR OFFICIAL COUNTDOWN 🔢 TO XYZ's METIORIC RISE TO THE TOP 💥.



NB: The examples given are for representative purposes only, please don't goad them, this post isn't intended to target them, it's not that serious.
Just one thing holding them back......LINK. Ever hear of Linkedin:xf.wink:
 
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Wow! Historic times we are living in.

Some other up and comers:
.cyou
.sbs

They literally have one reported sale each, for a total of like $500. LOL

Brad
 
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Sam1234

Top Member
Impact
560
.cyou is gonna be HUGE. Honestly, I think it could be the next .surf or .tokyo.
 
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jhm

Top Member
Impact
11,591
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Sam78

Established Member
Impact
44
Cheers Brad, I appreciate you looking into that. It looks like domaintools.com has similar numbers as ntldstats.

I think we can assume sans any other information that the domainnamestat is out significantly. Maybe that's why some are so excited with .xyz without knowing the real numbers.
agree, domainnamestat is dead wrong - not sure why. must be a bug.
Stick with ntldstats - .xyz's latest portfolio booklet on their quarterly report page says "over 4 million"
 
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Sam78

Established Member
Impact
44
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dnsgeni

Established Member
Impact
17
Official PRE Celebration Thread*
 
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alcy

Restricted (15-30%)
Impact
34,684
sorry If I dont post here its cause I died of laughter how xyz has any value or future
 
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Recons.Com

Top Member
Impact
18,410
I think .ooo is the next big thing and will beat .xyz handily.

It is also awesome for web3, as it has 3 repeating letters. Also, each "circle" could mean a universe, together forming a multiverse.

.horse is also a good candidate, as it ends in -rse, just like verse and has 5 letters.
 
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Anton Naydenov

Established Member
Impact
153
In terms of registrations, XYZ is doing pretty well. It's not possible to find 2 word XYZ Domains anymore. In terms of aftermarket sales, its pretty dark I would say, monopoly will not develop the xyz market, but it can make the registry very rich from £10 renewals.
The registry already became rich because they offered lots of .xyz names that had premium registration/transfer/renewal fees. Lots of one-word, L, N, LL, NN, LLL and NNN .xyz names, some two-word domains and mixed NL names are premium. My humble opinion is that the whole .xyz wave is a huge speculation well planned by the registry. There are, to say the least, very suspicious things happening with .xyz trading. One of them is that there is only one seller in the world that claims to make deals at 5 or even 6 figures. Most investor to investor sales happen at very low prices. Also I simply can’t see almost any developed websites that use the .xyz TLD. In 2021 and especially in 2022 hundreds of thousands of completely useless .xyz names were registered by wannabe-domainers for less than $1 US Dollar. I can predict that a huge number of .xyz domain names will be dropped in 2023 and 2024. I really appreciate the sarcasm in the original post and completely agree with it. XYZ will never become or replace COM - people who truly believe that such nonsense is possible to happen are simply stupid and have no common sense at all.
 
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dnsgeni

Established Member
Impact
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I think .ooo is the next big thing and will beat .xyz handily.

It is also awesome for web3, as it has 3 repeating letters. Also, each "circle" could mean a universe, together forming a multiverse.

.horse is also a good candidate, as it ends in -rse, just like verse and has 5 letters.
.o would be nice. Save the whole world two "types" of time.
 
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Recons.Com

Top Member
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