new gtlds .XYZ set to be TOP extension in 2 years time! OFFICIAL Countdown and celebration thread

[MadAboutDomains]

This may be news to some people, but I have been lovingly informed many times that .XYZ is going to overtake .COM as the top extension online within 2 years. Here is but a few:

xyz will be the first choice next 1 -2 years

I'll bet you right here on this date that XYZ will grow bigger than .com in the next two years, and then you, my friend, will have nothing but regret.

Well, I know that most people on here won't want to miss the boat on this one, so this thread can serve as a tracker for .XYZ's great rise to greatness and hegemony !

People said that when .top was the number 1 new GTLD in terms of registration count for a few months at least, that it meant it was going to be the top one overall, but unfortunately that didn't happen, >>all of the signs were there<<, but now LITERALLY ALL of the signs are there for XYZ and we're going to make sure it's on track. This thread is going to serve as undisputable proof of such signs to show that it's on track to being #1.

.XYZ has a chance because it's three seldom used letters at the end of a domain instead of a word like .TOP (or worse, the sickening and wholly useless .COM , for which it is now impossible to find a good domain) and domainers are saying it is so more often this time than with .top and they are more invested this time than ever before, so it must be true and who am I to say otherwise?

So this is it people... by posting this thread I am starting the:

2 YEAR OFFICIAL COUNTDOWN TO XYZ's METIORIC RISE TO THE TOP .

Post rules:
I would appreciate it if you could keep all posts in this thread to factual and numeric updates on the meteoric rise of .XYZ so that it can be understood by all. It is not a debate thread, nor is it to discuss whether or not this is going to happen, that is cut and dried now - it's happening, I have been told too many times. 2 years and it's done, we can put it to bed, I'll have egg on my face but we can all get on with our lives and make a killing as we've all been warned now.

NO thanks
- Debates
- Slating .XYZ
- Lies

YES please
- The number of days counting down to 24th August 2024
- Cold hard figures from reputable source(s) that compare .XYZ to .COM to show the progress of the inevitable and METIORIC RISE of .XYZ. Including but not limited to counts of: total registrations, developed domains, parked domains, registrations per day, sales figures and likelihood of reaching goal
- Include sources
- Whether it is on track to being the TOP extension or not given the figures

NB: The examples given are for representative purposes only, please don't goad them, this post isn't intended to target them, it's not that serious.

 

[jmcc]

I don't know where your assumptions are coming from.

Over 20 years worth of data, measuring growth and decline in TLDs, the effects of discounting and prices rises and, most importantly, measuring renewal rates at a domain name level rather than from registry reports. That and a lot of hard work trying to figure out what happens in TLDs.

Unless you have some facts showing this "counter-intuitive" effect, the normal reaction to price increase is reduction in demand. It is called price elasticity.

People will value a domain name more if they pay more for it. It is the Sunk Cost Fallacy at work for a lot of these unused or undeveloped registrations. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_cost ). There is also a Fear Of Missing Out effect with some domainers holding on to domain names because they fear that someone else will register them and sell them for a large profit.

Many of the owners of single domain names will have their domain names on auto-renewal. If they are using their domain name for a website or e-mail, they are effectively locked in to the price increases because the cost of switching is much higher than the price increase. This creates a stable core of registrations in successful TLDs.

What is happening at the moment is that .COM and many other TLDs are experiencing higher than usual deletions due to Covid registrations from 2020 and 2021 being deleted. These are not typically being deleted because of price increases. They are being deleted because the registrants thought that they could make businesses online. Many could not transfer offline businesses successfully to online businesses. The wider economic effects of this are also visible. Wix (a company providing DIY web development and hosting services) had bad financial results as the Covid spike of 2020/2021 faded and demand for its services declined. Shopify, a company that provides e-commerce services for websites laid off a lot of people a few months ago and its CEO blamed this on making the wrong bet over Covid spike and the assumption that the boost in registrations and people setting up online shops would continue indefinitely. ( https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-of-staff-with-most-workers-gone-by-day-s-end ) Some of the EU ccTLDs have also seen a similar decline with Covid registrations washing out of their zones.

It has already shown itself with .net when the price experiments of verisign took away all growth momentum from .net.

The .NET has been in trouble since around 2005. It was typically an alternative to .COM and the ccTLDs had not taken off. With Domain Tasting, the ccTLDs became a viable option outside of the US and a lot of new registrations switched to these ccTLDs. The high volumes of Domain Tasting obscured .NET's problems for a few years but when it stopped, the new registration volume in .NET slowed. Much of .NET is based on brand protection registrations with registrants owning the equivalent .COM domain name. These registrations tend to renew well and will continue to do so as long as the TLD remains relevant.

And it will show again with .com

The .COM is a single TLD but it is a composite market of many country level markets and a smaller global market. The biggest market in .COM is that of the USA. Renewal rates for registrations at the country level tend to follow the economics of these markets. The US, the EU, the UK, AU will generally have better renewal rates than CN or some other countries. Throw in the discounting offers and it is not unusual to see some registrars with lower renewal rates than others in the same country. Discounted registrations do not renew as well as full-fee registrations. The more extreme version can be seen in the new gTLDs with a non-renewal rate of over 80% in some new gTLDs.

No need to reference to overall economy about it. That 14.5% increase is no peanuts. Just for HD, that will result in around $9 million a year. Personally for me, compared to pricing that was there just a year ago, the new bill will add to extra $25k/year.

Approximately 9% of .COM is on For Sale/Auction sites. Apart from the premium registrations, there is a lot of speculative activity there and as a category, a lot of the non-premium registrations do not get renewed after failing to sell. HD and others will, if they think that their domain names are valuable enough, pay the increases but the larger operators will have their own registrar connections allowing them to just pay the increase without any additional fees. For non-domainer and non-auction/sales operators, the price increases will get lost in the rising cost of living and doing business. Some of them will drop domain names. This is the breakdown on .COM deletions from August by their last addition to the zone (lower limit of 2012):
2022: 3.00%
2021: 56.51%
2020: 16.78%
2019: 6.89%
2018: 4.16%
2017: 2.89%
2016: 2.04%
2015: 1.49%
2014: 1.13%
2013: 0.84%
2012: 0.97%

The bulk is concentrated over 2021 and 2020 as some of them are new registrations going through their first renewals. If the effect of the price increases is going to be as widespread as you think then the deletions of registrations prior to 2020 will increase across the board.

The estimated registration age breakdowns for the .COM zone grouped by 2, 5, 10, 15 and 20 years are:
Y2 (last 2 years): 33.08%
Y5 (last 5 years): 58.74%
Y10 (last 10 years): 78.87%
Y15 (last 15 years): 89.95%
Y20 (last 20 years): 96.55%

Once a registration goes through about 2 renewals, it will generally keep renewing. Most registries make more money from renewals than they do from new registrations. The registries understand this and that's why they are careful with price increases.

When a gTLD starts to lose its position, the registry will apply a golden handcuffs strategy to lock in brand protection registrations by increasing the renewal fee while keeping the new registration fee low. This is happening with .BIZ and .INFO at the moment. A variation happens with the new gTLDs in that a small percentage of the heavily discounted registrations will renew at full fee. The .XYZ registry has been one of the more successful at using the discounting model to build its zone.

From this morning's .COM count, the zone total is still below that of 01 June 2022.

Regards...jmcc

 

[phaethon]

Thousands XYZs drop indeed, there is clearly no future. Funny to see domainers registering my drops, there are just too many fools out there still buying without having sold a single XYZ. Good job, Swetha.
Ok,XYZ bots, downvote me now

 

[enterscope]

Lol, xyz has gained traction, but nobody truly believes this.

.COM is ingrained in the world's mindshare with 40 years of media, conditioning and application.

DOT COM is two syllables. DOT XYZ is 4

 

[jmcc]

According to ntldstats.com .xyz dropped 98,859 domains today. What's your take on that? Thanks

Probably deletions of promotional/discounted registrations from 2022 cause this kind of drop. The majority of new .XYZ registrations from the prior year do not renew. The Quick Delta comparison of the 01 May 2022 zone for .XYZ with the 01 May 2023 zone (simply checking if domain names from the 2022 zone are still in the 2023 zone) was:

gTLD - Total - Retained - Deleted - Retained % - Deleted %
xyz 4,121,536 1,398,447 2,723,089 33.93 66.07

The monthly deletions do not precisely match the registration month so the spike would be deletions of new registrations spread over, approximately, March, April and May 2022.

Regards...jmcc

 

[ScottMb]

I'm genuinely curious about the renewal structure of premium .xyz names. For example sex.xyz is what $12k per year.

Is this a fixed amount per year (forever) ?. Or can registrars just increase yearly renewals to whatever they want?.

 

[Andreas B.]

so, xyz might not be the TOP extension in 2 years time,
but its for sure a very lucrative domain extension.

Gaming.xyz -- $123,984 ​

Sino.xyz -- $119911​

Bull.xyz -- $199888​

and ain't the money the reason we are here for?!

 

[jmcc]

In the next two years? I don't know if this will ever happen, but definitely not in the next 2 years. The world economy along with crypto is heading downhill and most probably it would take at least 2 years for a recovery.



Interesting. I never thought this way - xyz representing multidimensional nature.

The .COM went negative for three months in 2022 (more deleted from the zone than added). It is coming back up again now as the months from April to August always see a slow down. The daily .COM and .NET figures are available from Verisign:
https://www.verisign.com/en_US/channel-resources/domain-registry-products/zone-file/index.xhtml

The .COM is a very different gTLD to .XYZ in that most of its registrations are long-term ones. The .XYZ is the largest of the new gTLDs but most of its registrations are not long-term. All retail TLDs see a number of first year registrations being dropped. Even with .COM approximately 45% of new registrations from 2021 drop rather than renew.

Because of the discounting model used by .XYZ, its first year non-renewal % is somewhat higher. To maintain its present number of registrations, it has to keep adding new registrations to replace the ones that drop. As a new gTLD, the .XYZ is probably one of the more successful ones in that its management understands the discounting model and has worked on building the gTLD. What has happened is that it has become an alternative to .COM in some developing markets because it is cheaper to register a .XYZ than the equivalent domain name in .COM (the equivalent generic may also be long-gone in .COM). There's also a speculative group of domain names in .XYZ that drops without ever being developed. With the new gTLDs, the number of domain names in the zone file is no longer a reliable metric due to the use of discounted registrations.

In terms of the domain name lifecycle, the domain names registered in August 2021 are now entering the renewal/deletion phase and that can last as long as three months. It won't be until around April 2023 that the full renewal/deletion figures for the gTLDs in 2021 will be available.

Regards...jmcc

 

[MadAboutDomains]

It's not the amount
You are missing out big time
The use of XYZ is in the hands of very large entities and for very large purposes of technological developments / crypto / metaverse and blockchain and more... these niches add up to a market of over a trillion dollars in the coming years and this is the huge difference
New generation users with new goals and new investments all draining under XYZ

Please provide provable numbers so that we can track the rise of XYZ accurately and provide comparisons to .COM.

 

[Sam1234]

.COM

 

[DomainNature]

VRLABS.XYZ sold for $24888

No more details please.

Sold at Dan and now with same price at Sedo, show live video of money in your Bank account.
No further details, because it's fake. Meaning also "don't dig me up".

 

[Andreas B.]

As I said in the swetha - truth will shock you thread:
Please show me one .xyz domain, that has a niche (strange) keyword, and was sold for 5 digit.

Swetha is by now the only one, who was able to fulfill this 'miracle'.

Swetha has not just sold 1 or two strange keyword domains in .xyz for $40k figure... but more.

And as there is none else, (some) people (obv. fans) are downvoting such posts, due to lack of arguments
- although its just stats.

There won't be any domainer here, who can show a niche (strange) keyword sale in .xyz for high 5 figure.

And this will forever be the mystic & obscurity behind that.

 

[Lox]

At this point, it's pointless Lox. These people have literally had their hand held with examples, explanations and data comparisons showing contrary to their wild conspiracies. It's become a flat earther's club as far as I'm concerned.

It's strange sometimes, I read, I visit website, DD and I think .... what on earth is going on here.

Example

Finterest raised $1.5M seed (crunchbase)

Domain name: Finterest.ooo
and redirects to: tyhcm-sqaaa-aaaah-abjya-cai.ic0.app

Regards

 

[Traderas]

HOW do you provide clarity in that?!

I urge you to

a) put evidence on the table, that a big corp bought it, but even more than that
b) put evidence forward, that $28 thousand were paid for it.


And yes, one thing:
Please do not distract with other arguments.




thank you

Why don't you put evidence that it did not happen?

Everyone is free to believe whatever he wants.

I sold a 2word .xyz domain 8 months ago for 3k.
I can't reveal the name because the sale was in installments.
The landing page still shows nothing.
20 of June I sold upim .xyz for 888€, still nothing... (It s reported in Namebio)
22/8 exnihilo .org $977, still nothing
9/7 erth .world $888, I m still making some cents from my Bodis account where is still parked

 

[Andreas B.]

Hi zion,

did you already sell your domain dubai.xyz for $101,000,000?!

I do not laugh...

He is able to sell that domain for a very good price.

But, something like that (101m) is of course totally unrealistic - at all.

he would be better advised, to put the domain on sale for a far more realistic price.

(as I heard, he might have had an inquriy of $1 mio.! I would have sold definitely.)

 

[MadAboutDomains]

Days remaining (source):
732 days to go!

Total .XYZ registrations: 4,201,922 (source)
Total .COM registrations: 159,601,512 (source)

Percentage to goal of total hegemony (source): 2.633%

Outlook to success: bleak

 

[enterscope]

It's not the amount
You are missing out big time
The use of XYZ is in the hands of very large entities and for very large purposes of technological developments / crypto / metaverse and blockchain and more... these niches add up to a market of over a trillion dollars in the coming years and this is the huge difference
New generation users with new goals and new investments all draining under XYZ

I've been involved with crypto since 2012 and purchased several .bit domains when they came out.

Even 10 years later, the majority of the public just does not care and/or does not have the technical capacity to use crypto let alone web3 and blockchain domains.

What we have now is the closest you will get to decentralization because the future is more power grabs, more control, more centralization and more loss of rights and freedoms. That is the obvious direction the world is headed.

They do not like freedom of speech, it's clear in Youtube's removal of Dislike button.

The powers want a cookie-cutter, throttled internet with gov-approved "Apps" and limited discussions on anything that even remotely disagrees with the mainstream narrative.

Web3 SHOULD be the future. Crypto SHOULD be the way. But it stands in THEIR WAY.

 

[redemo]

Just making an observation that dot com is two syllables while dot ex why zed is four syllables, seems to fly in the face of making everything faster and easier to double our speech output requirement. Just an observation.

 

[Centauri]

Here's what namebio can find from .xyz $500+ sales over the last ~month. Sex.xyz looks shocking for just $2150.

Show attachment 230491

This is .xyz sales from dnpric.es sorted by date. Auction.xyz was just $4.4K.

Show attachment 230492

Has .xyz popularity exhausted?

Yeah,
its really strange how one single seller can sell strange/ shitty/ crappy names for 5 digits,
while (actually) very good dictionary names sell for low 4 or even 3 digit.

And many don't sell at all!


And fanboys and girls of swetha saying, there is nothing strange going on here...

wow!
hypocrites (.xyz)



As I said in the swetha - truth will shock you thread:
Please show me one .xyz domain, that has a niche (strange) keyword, and was sold for 5 digit.

Swetha is by now the only one, who was able to fulfill this 'miracle'.

 

[Samer]

This thread title is Fake News.

 

[bmugford]

Well no brainer! xyz family!!!

.XYZ is only like 160 million regs behind .COM.

.COM is adding more net registrations than .XYZ, so the lead is only growing.

.XYZ has a place, but thinking it is going to overtake .COM is silly.

Brad

 

[Centauri]

xyz disc. will go forth and back until infinity....

 

[BigTree]

.xyz is on the map recently mainly because of one seller.
Now imagine that seller 'sales disappeared.
What do you see now?
.xyz always was a fishy extension, not to mention the founder....

 

[Future Sensors]

Anyway, numbers can be verified by exploring the root zone file although historical data is harder to analyse if you haven't been keeping track.

That's the best way to measure, indeed (well not root, but tld zone file). The amount of approximately 4MM as mentioned earlier is reliable. There are currently 4,214,390 domains present in the .XYZ zone file, of which 6,629 were added in the last 24 hours (net).

 

[Recons.Com]

xyz deserves all the respect and all the glory and this is what is happening right now

All that remains is to pick the fruits for those who managed to purchase when it was still possible 3-4 years ago the premium words

Keep counting it's healthy...

Did you read the article above? In case you missed:

https://www.spotvirtual.com/blog/the-perils-of-an-xyz-domain/

What glory??? Email services treat it as spammer domain extension. SMS services won't even show the messages that contain it. General population doesn't think well of it.

It is hyped within a hyped little industry and once that is over, it is gone.

 

[Sam1234]

.cyou is gonna be HUGE. Honestly, I think it could be the next .surf or .tokyo.