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Been thinking about making a longer info post, something I haven't done in a while, here it is.
It's now morning here in Europe, January 1st 2023, maybe some are still partying in western countries.
I guess the biggest question now in any domainer's mind is: How will 2023 be for domainers?
2022 has been rough for many, if not most of us.
Certainly things aren't as they used to be. Even major domain investors have spoken out and shown that, clearly, it is NOT what it used to be and they haven't seen anything like it.
Question is, what lies ahead. And I have been weighting the facts, will outline them for you, and you can draw your own conclusions alongside mine. I will not make general predictions, I will make predictions for myself. Hopefully you will also be able to draw your own good ones and make good plans from now on.
Okay so I'm going to outline below what I know and what I can see already (perhaps you see it as well).
2022 has been an year of both market implosions and sharp inflation. In the US it is still smaller, but where I am in Europe it is 15% (and I don't trust the official numbers are high enough). It is difficult for many to make ends meet. I also spent all my budget for latest months which is not something usual.
Where is the economy now?
It is not difficult to see that it is still going downhill, I guess. Again this is my conclusion, but here is what we know.
- An overwhelming part of the economists worldwide predict 2023 is going to be a rough year.
- Countries are still raising interest rates, even hawkishly (the Fed)
- China is going through a Covid outbreak (finally! they should have left it natural) so we're having a late pandemic right now. It is clear how this impacts the market and major stocks like Apple and Tesla have been hit by it already.
- War in Ukraine, military spending (yet more money printing)
- The gas and energy crisis, big here in Europe but not only here.
I'm gonna stop here as its' enough.
What hasn't happened yet but it is clearly about to?
- Individuals worldwide are running out of cash reserves, including US. Which means, purchase power which has been good so far, will come soon at a big cliff drop.
- Some small business went out already, but there are still many SMBs rolling more or less well. Many of these are likely to fall in 2023, although the total percentage is however hard to foresee. It is clear though that once the bottom line of the house of cards which is the global economy falls at least in part, the next one to fall is the upper level.
- Credit will be drying out even further, due to increasing rates. This is simple to understand. Which means, even further decline. We know that we live in a (wrongfully so) economy based on debt.
Biggest and most important question: Have you seen a sharp improvement lately anywhere?
You probably haven't. And the thing is, until you see those several sharp improvements, it means that the downtrend hasn't even flattened. Because it will flatten only after you have already seen good signs and improvements in several economy trends.
Are there more bubbles to burst?
Oh my. I won't even mention some of them as I don't want to scare anybody so I'll keep mouth shut on that for now.
Anyway, let's take an "easier" one - real estate. Already happening.
Also the SEC regulatory aiming at crypto regulation + the ripple effects of FTX collapse (which I dare to say are just beginning; think about how many further marketplaces etc will go bust due to having to pay back everything they got from FTX) is going to have a knockout effect on crypto market. Including bitcoin to some level but definitely bad at any other coin.
So is this all doom and gloom?
Will let everyone here to decide further. (Spoiler alert - not everything is that bad though)
Edit: Important note: Some investors have had quite a good 2022 and happy overall, including me.
Are there any good news as well?
Think so. Regulation on crypto will have a good effect but longterm. Salaries are still running high in developed countries (caveat - still further fueling sort-of inflationary effect). Many firms are still afloat. People are still getting by... mostly.
How has this already impacted sales in 2022 and what to expect?
a) I guess we already saw that in 2022, especially the second part sales have declined a lot. To me that is a direct effect of inflation + tech bubble burst (see Nasdaq) + SPAC (soft burst ongoing) + crypto bubble burst (still likely deflating further). It was a fast decline and no wonder there.
b) People are more conscious with their money right now. Which means they aren't spending until either they are confident about the future, or they have the means and safety plans in place. Either way they need to have the money for it.
c) The biggest impact I have seen is on SMB's. Have you noticed that the most decline in sales reported on NP are in the xxx, lower range? So for example my low end sales have been much more affected than the bigger ticket items.
Also have yoou seen that those investors with better, high 4-fig to 5-fig names made it better in 2022? (Personal notes, my best names are the ones that saved the day)
This is because clients for such better names are larger, obviously. The larger the corporations, the more funds a startup has, the better chance they will still continue to buy domains at very good prices.
Have you also noticed that there is a decrease also in weekly reported aggregated sales from elsewhere, e.g. Namebio stats? Not in number, but the median price of the whole list has gone south.
What to do next?
Well it depends on what kind of domainer you are, but here is what i do.
I am setting my best names on autorenew.
I will be clearing most of my weaker ones.
For me anything under $2k right now will have to go and $2k priced ones are quite meh. So I am clearing perfectly good names otherwise and you will be seeing quite a number of that sold here in 2023. Of course I will be also selling some I shouldn't but the risk comes with the job. Anyway.
Thing is, I am replenishing / refreshing my stock now with better names and I would recommend anyone to do so. Because here's the opportunity ahead:
2023 and few years ahead are the years when the big money will be made for the smart of us.
And personally I plan to retire from it.
It has arrived - the time of the buys.
Needless to say, domaining game is won not at the sale level, but at the buy level. So if you know what / how much to buy in 2023 and beyond, your future will be set.
But it might also mean you will have to let go of some if not many of your existing names.
2023 and immediate years will not be the years of sales.
I think this is pretty logical right now. Your goal might not be to make serious profits but rather to make some profit and the most important, keep your best names in stock after all this ends and economy will inevitably go on the rise.
I would be carefully looking at those overpriced names, especially the lower value ones.
It used to be the fact that the higher you price your names the better you're off. I'm seeing sort of an end of that. This doesn't mean you should decrease your prices overall! What I mean is, make sure you are not priced out of the market. Even if you're just a bit off, it will kill your sales.
But, for God's sake, don't cut down prices on your best names. You can cut just a little of those who are great but still a bit overpriced. I've gone for example from $8k to $6k on some and from $4k to $3.5k on others but that's it. I've not taken my entire weaker tier from $1688 to $500 or whatever. They are still at that price - unless I have figured out some might be duds and therefore they got a dud price.
Anyway, I'm going to say this clearly, to be kept in mind:
Overpricing your weakest names is just as much of a sin as underpricing your best ones.
This rule, if you don't follow it, I dare to say it will only bring you guys suffering. (Been there, done that).
As for this out-of-market pricing thing. In August I have decided to measure again where the tip of the iceberg is and therefore I have increased my pricing overall by 20%. What followed was clearly the effect: For the first time since I have been actively domaining, I had 2 months with almost no sales. Duh.
Later, beginning of November I got the pricing back and I have had a great November and December. Everything has been great and even met my target.
TL;DR; Things are likely still tightening; get rid of weaker names; price efficiently, neither too big or too small; BUY GREAT NAMES and HOLD. Hold tight. Don't focus on immediate profit but rather on some profit and the ability to keep your names; even if you have for example to spend some of your other money in that, if you are 100% sure these are names that will sell for $$$$ in the future.
Some end notes as well.
There are a ton of domain investors out there with cash that are already doing this. They are safeguarding their financial assets by investing in great names that will be sold for top $ when the economy crisis ends. This is why for example DC is running rampant lately; not for the everyday Joe (auctions are ridiculously weak right now) but for the big whales behind, collecting everything valuable at large.
Anyway, good luck and feel free to criticize this openly (if needed) and make your own notes and conclusions. I'm not a guru, I just see some things happening already and I bet many of us are seeing the elephant in the room.
It's now morning here in Europe, January 1st 2023, maybe some are still partying in western countries.
I guess the biggest question now in any domainer's mind is: How will 2023 be for domainers?
2022 has been rough for many, if not most of us.
Certainly things aren't as they used to be. Even major domain investors have spoken out and shown that, clearly, it is NOT what it used to be and they haven't seen anything like it.
Question is, what lies ahead. And I have been weighting the facts, will outline them for you, and you can draw your own conclusions alongside mine. I will not make general predictions, I will make predictions for myself. Hopefully you will also be able to draw your own good ones and make good plans from now on.
Okay so I'm going to outline below what I know and what I can see already (perhaps you see it as well).
2022 has been an year of both market implosions and sharp inflation. In the US it is still smaller, but where I am in Europe it is 15% (and I don't trust the official numbers are high enough). It is difficult for many to make ends meet. I also spent all my budget for latest months which is not something usual.
Where is the economy now?
It is not difficult to see that it is still going downhill, I guess. Again this is my conclusion, but here is what we know.
- An overwhelming part of the economists worldwide predict 2023 is going to be a rough year.
- Countries are still raising interest rates, even hawkishly (the Fed)
- China is going through a Covid outbreak (finally! they should have left it natural) so we're having a late pandemic right now. It is clear how this impacts the market and major stocks like Apple and Tesla have been hit by it already.
- War in Ukraine, military spending (yet more money printing)
- The gas and energy crisis, big here in Europe but not only here.
I'm gonna stop here as its' enough.
What hasn't happened yet but it is clearly about to?
- Individuals worldwide are running out of cash reserves, including US. Which means, purchase power which has been good so far, will come soon at a big cliff drop.
- Some small business went out already, but there are still many SMBs rolling more or less well. Many of these are likely to fall in 2023, although the total percentage is however hard to foresee. It is clear though that once the bottom line of the house of cards which is the global economy falls at least in part, the next one to fall is the upper level.
- Credit will be drying out even further, due to increasing rates. This is simple to understand. Which means, even further decline. We know that we live in a (wrongfully so) economy based on debt.
Biggest and most important question: Have you seen a sharp improvement lately anywhere?
You probably haven't. And the thing is, until you see those several sharp improvements, it means that the downtrend hasn't even flattened. Because it will flatten only after you have already seen good signs and improvements in several economy trends.
Are there more bubbles to burst?
Oh my. I won't even mention some of them as I don't want to scare anybody so I'll keep mouth shut on that for now.
Anyway, let's take an "easier" one - real estate. Already happening.
Also the SEC regulatory aiming at crypto regulation + the ripple effects of FTX collapse (which I dare to say are just beginning; think about how many further marketplaces etc will go bust due to having to pay back everything they got from FTX) is going to have a knockout effect on crypto market. Including bitcoin to some level but definitely bad at any other coin.
So is this all doom and gloom?
Will let everyone here to decide further. (Spoiler alert - not everything is that bad though)
Edit: Important note: Some investors have had quite a good 2022 and happy overall, including me.
Are there any good news as well?
Think so. Regulation on crypto will have a good effect but longterm. Salaries are still running high in developed countries (caveat - still further fueling sort-of inflationary effect). Many firms are still afloat. People are still getting by... mostly.
How has this already impacted sales in 2022 and what to expect?
a) I guess we already saw that in 2022, especially the second part sales have declined a lot. To me that is a direct effect of inflation + tech bubble burst (see Nasdaq) + SPAC (soft burst ongoing) + crypto bubble burst (still likely deflating further). It was a fast decline and no wonder there.
b) People are more conscious with their money right now. Which means they aren't spending until either they are confident about the future, or they have the means and safety plans in place. Either way they need to have the money for it.
c) The biggest impact I have seen is on SMB's. Have you noticed that the most decline in sales reported on NP are in the xxx, lower range? So for example my low end sales have been much more affected than the bigger ticket items.
Also have yoou seen that those investors with better, high 4-fig to 5-fig names made it better in 2022? (Personal notes, my best names are the ones that saved the day)
This is because clients for such better names are larger, obviously. The larger the corporations, the more funds a startup has, the better chance they will still continue to buy domains at very good prices.
Have you also noticed that there is a decrease also in weekly reported aggregated sales from elsewhere, e.g. Namebio stats? Not in number, but the median price of the whole list has gone south.
What to do next?
Well it depends on what kind of domainer you are, but here is what i do.
I am setting my best names on autorenew.
I will be clearing most of my weaker ones.
For me anything under $2k right now will have to go and $2k priced ones are quite meh. So I am clearing perfectly good names otherwise and you will be seeing quite a number of that sold here in 2023. Of course I will be also selling some I shouldn't but the risk comes with the job. Anyway.
Thing is, I am replenishing / refreshing my stock now with better names and I would recommend anyone to do so. Because here's the opportunity ahead:
2023 and few years ahead are the years when the big money will be made for the smart of us.
And personally I plan to retire from it.
It has arrived - the time of the buys.
Needless to say, domaining game is won not at the sale level, but at the buy level. So if you know what / how much to buy in 2023 and beyond, your future will be set.
But it might also mean you will have to let go of some if not many of your existing names.
2023 and immediate years will not be the years of sales.
I think this is pretty logical right now. Your goal might not be to make serious profits but rather to make some profit and the most important, keep your best names in stock after all this ends and economy will inevitably go on the rise.
I would be carefully looking at those overpriced names, especially the lower value ones.
It used to be the fact that the higher you price your names the better you're off. I'm seeing sort of an end of that. This doesn't mean you should decrease your prices overall! What I mean is, make sure you are not priced out of the market. Even if you're just a bit off, it will kill your sales.
But, for God's sake, don't cut down prices on your best names. You can cut just a little of those who are great but still a bit overpriced. I've gone for example from $8k to $6k on some and from $4k to $3.5k on others but that's it. I've not taken my entire weaker tier from $1688 to $500 or whatever. They are still at that price - unless I have figured out some might be duds and therefore they got a dud price.
Anyway, I'm going to say this clearly, to be kept in mind:
Overpricing your weakest names is just as much of a sin as underpricing your best ones.
This rule, if you don't follow it, I dare to say it will only bring you guys suffering. (Been there, done that).
As for this out-of-market pricing thing. In August I have decided to measure again where the tip of the iceberg is and therefore I have increased my pricing overall by 20%. What followed was clearly the effect: For the first time since I have been actively domaining, I had 2 months with almost no sales. Duh.
Later, beginning of November I got the pricing back and I have had a great November and December. Everything has been great and even met my target.
TL;DR; Things are likely still tightening; get rid of weaker names; price efficiently, neither too big or too small; BUY GREAT NAMES and HOLD. Hold tight. Don't focus on immediate profit but rather on some profit and the ability to keep your names; even if you have for example to spend some of your other money in that, if you are 100% sure these are names that will sell for $$$$ in the future.
Some end notes as well.
There are a ton of domain investors out there with cash that are already doing this. They are safeguarding their financial assets by investing in great names that will be sold for top $ when the economy crisis ends. This is why for example DC is running rampant lately; not for the everyday Joe (auctions are ridiculously weak right now) but for the big whales behind, collecting everything valuable at large.
Anyway, good luck and feel free to criticize this openly (if needed) and make your own notes and conclusions. I'm not a guru, I just see some things happening already and I bet many of us are seeing the elephant in the room.
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