LLL trends - The rise and rise of .com

[chimaera]

I only noticed today that 3character.com added archived price guides, back to Sep 05. While 3character.com has it's critics, it's still a great guide.

I tried this chart some time ago with estimates but it's really interesting to see the trends in LLL sales. What is interesting is:
- .com's consistent rise (it's not shooting upwards as much as I thought, it's fairly straight if you look at % increases)
- .net and .org steadily rising
- the ups and downs of everything else.

Here is the full chart, mostly demonstrating the .com rise:

Here's the chart with .com removed:

All looks rosy, right?

Here's another way of looking at it, the percentage year-on-year increases. Very interesting I think!
- until Jun/Jul 07, LLL.net and LLL.org were giving a better YOY ROI than .com!
- after that point, the YOY ROI has fallen dramatically for .net and .org.
- .net in particular looks to be the loser, falling to just 5% return in the last year, while .org looks to be levelling out and hopefully (I own a few!) picking up again. .com however would appear to have levelled out at 'just' 100% YOY ROI.

For all:

The big 3:

So what does this all mean?

Well, I think everyone knows that LLL.com are the place to be for return on investment - this would suggest that the Jul 09 figure is going to be ~$15k.

It also perfectly illustrates the short lived 'hype' around new domains - .info, .us and .mobi have all peaked and are in decline (based on this, an LLL.us investment a year ago would now be worth -50%).

Finally, it demonstrates that LLL investing is not always a safe place to be, unless you can afford the .coms.

 

[hyped]

very informative and well put together post thanks for the info! repped

 

[sidekick_33]

Wow, there's a lot of data to gather from that post. I will have to spend some more time researching and exploring the data.

Thanks!

 

[chimaera]

I could provide more detail on specific extensions if the above aren't clear. Just request and I'll see what I can do.

Cheers

 

[CoolCode]

good information

personally i think lll.com prices are inflated at the moment. there is hardly anyreason why lll.com prices are on the increase when other domain market segments are falling (very low growth)
i think lll.com prices will drop, specially the low end lll (its not going to happen tommorow or day after. will take good few months. specially after early next year when domain extensions will start to popup for good keywords, city names,,)

thats just my opinion by the way

 

[Pred]

good information

personally i think lll.com prices are inflated at the moment. there is hardly anyreason why lll.com prices are on the increase when other domain market segments are falling (very low growth)
i think lll.com prices will drop, specially the low end lll (its not going to happen tommorow or day after. will take good few months. specially after early next year when domain extensions will start to popup for good keywords, city names,,)

thats just my opinion by the way

yes, thankyou. awesome post. rep added.

in fact LLL.com is already on way down somewhat, looking around shows that. still always sell though and many for way more than the min, even on forums, but the lower grade is falling imho, not hard to see why when you see what a bubble they really have been in , for a short time in real terms.

repped

 

[BLazeD]

I see good LLL.com continuing to go up, crap ones maybe going down a little.

LLL.com is never going to be worthless though.

 

[chimaera]

in fact LLL.com is already on way down somewhat, looking around shows that. still always sell though and many for way more than the min, even on forums, but the lower grade is falling imho, not hard to see why when you see what a bubble they really have been in , for a short time in real terms.

It will be interesting to see how this develops - I also feel we may be at something of a turning point.

I wish 3character or someone had kept records of minimum sale prices, because I do think that crap lll.com prices are getting lower or staying the same - same for lll.net and .org.

 

[zoweb]

Good thread! Thanks chimaera!

 

[Mike]

Outstanding comparative data! Repped :tu:

Unfortunately, most of us cannot afford a LLL.com - have you considered to compile similar data for LLLL.com - where there are more owners around on NP?

M.

 

[snoop]

It has become pretty apparent over the last two weeks the 3character.com guide is not accurately reflecting market falls. The minimum is around $6300 at present. Quad letter domains hits the nail on the head,

3Character.com still reports that the LLL.com market is increasing stating that the current observed minimum wholesale value is up $50 this month to $7650.

This is pretty far from the truth considering the recent sales data taken from multiple venues. Here are some recent LLL.com sales:

2008-06-20 - RYY.com - $7,124
2008-06-23 - XKD.com - $7,100
2008-06-26 - HMQ.com - $7,300
2008-06-26 - BIY.com - $7,400
2008-07-01 - QVK.com - $6,730
2008-07-02 - FQV.com - $6,305

All of these recent sales are below the current ‘observed minimum wholesale’ value posted on 3Character.com on the 1st July 2008. It seems the site isn’t all that accurate after all. You could argue that some of these aren’t of the highest quality but this is incidental considering the minimum wholesale figure doesn’t discriminate and covers all LLL.com domains.

http://www.quadletterdomains.com/three-letter-domain-value-decreasing/

I see good LLL.com continuing to go up, crap ones maybe going down a little.

I don't agree at all, I am selling some quite premium ones at the moment and prices/offers look to be significantly lower than 2-3 months ago, that was about the peak for the really good stuff, they have been on a downtrend since then I think. The lower quality stuff held up for longer and has only started coming down in recent weeks.

 

[BLazeD]

I don't agree at all, I am selling some quite premium ones at the moment and prices/offers look to be significantly lower than 2-3 months ago, that was about the peak for the really good stuff, they have been on a downtrend since then I think. The lower quality stuff held up for longer and has only started coming down in recent weeks.

Such as JJJ and MLL?

 

[snoop]

Such as JJJ and MLL?

Yes, I am selling these at the moment.

 

[BLazeD]

MLL is a sold buy at that price. I think that the effects of the credit crunch are just filtering to domainers is all, as well as a correct on what exactly constitutes premium.

 

[snoop]

MLL is a sold buy at that price. I think that the effects of the credit crunch are just filtering to domainers is all, as well as a correct on what exactly constitutes premium.

A couple of people now have told me it is cheap yet none are actually willing to buy. I am a realist, at the end of the day the name has not found a market at $18,500. The general change in interest levels for quality lll.com is very noticable to a couple of months ago.

 

[-REECE-]

I've noticed that as well..

And I'm sorry to say it, but this: http://www.3character.com/priceguide.html is utter BS this month. I seriously doubt the "Minimum Wholesale Price" (regardless of letter combo) on LLL.coms is above $5500 at present.

A couple of people now have told me it is cheap yet none are actually willing to buy. I am a realist, at the end of the day the name has not found a market at $18,500. The general change in interest levels for quality lll.com is very noticable to a couple of months ago.

 

[BLazeD]

A couple of people now have told me it is cheap yet none are actually willing to buy.

Credit crunch man, why should domains be immune?

Hold and buy any steals if you have the cash.

 

[snoop]

Credit crunch man, why should domains be immune?

Hold and buy any steals if you have the cash.

That is the whole point, domain values are falling. Were you not suggesting quality lll.com's hadn't seen falls just before?

"I see good LLL.com continuing to go up, crap ones maybe going down a little."

 

[-REECE-]

Triple premiums seem more stable than the low end stuff at present.. Although I guess it could be argued that the "false demand" created by domainers on the low end this entire year contributed significantly to the problem we're seeing at present. Those "I want to own an LLL.com" domainers rarely bought into the premiums and their prices (albeit perhaps still high) seem more reflective of reality than a $9000 LLL.com with 3x bad letters and no apparent endusers.

 

[italiandragon]

Nice charts, what did you use to make them?

Thanks

Triple premiums seem more stable than the low end stuff at present.. Although I guess it could be argued that the "false demand" created by domainers on the low end this entire year contributed significantly to the problem we're seeing at present. Those "I want to own an LLL.com" domainers rarely bought into the premiums and their prices (albeit perhaps still high) seem more reflective of reality than a $9000 LLL.com with 3x bad letters and no apparent endusers.

I`m sorry to insist but I still dispute the "premium letter" definition.

There are ACRONYMS with the so called bad letters that offers more endusers chances than for example something like DDD.com