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discuss In case you don't know what happens next (economy and domains)

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twiki

Top Contributor
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Just a bit of heads-up to those looking at domain sales (currently down) economy (also down) and who still don't know what to expect next.

Will it be good, will it be bad, will be a soft landing or a hard landing?

I'm not a prophet. But there are things clearly visible already, and we can make some rather well educated assumptions based on them.

But first, why do I ask (myself) such a question? Well, my own livelihood depends on domains (although just partially in my case) and I assume yours might as well, otherwise you wouldn't be here reading this. So yeah it's freakin' important.

There's good and there's bad as well, so let's look into it. (note, feel free to share what you know as well)

The good part? We can already draw some conclusions based on existing data.

So here are some ideas in no particular order:

- We're in the midst of a global crisis (meta-crisis, on many levels), That part is quite clear now for almost everyone. It is also clear that this crisis will affect domain sales, as it will everything else. It already did.

- NASDAQ went down abruptly in the last few months (currently -32%). Since this index is directly related to tech and finance, and since most domain sales come from this area, yeah. It matters.

Note: I am assuming that domain sales are down overall by at least that % or more. (Funny thing, my own sales are actually up significantly - huge sigh of relief from here - but I know not everyone else might be that lucky right now, including those who I talked with).

Also, if it matters, my Afternic rep also confirmed that indeed overall sales are down in significant numbers on the platform.

- Multiple bubbles have already burst. The general tech bubble, and also the crypto bubble. (funny thing, browser spelling doesn't know what "crypto" term is right now and wants me to correct to "crypt").

Tech investors are already spooked. Also your crypto domains might not be in that much demand right now. As a side note I always had the gut feeling crypto domains aren't solid do I stayed out of most of it. I'm happy I did. Just have a few stake names.

- Real estate bubble is already popping. Now this might only be perceived as a small decline at this moment, but it's not. Here's what's happening, and why this is important.

Important tip: If you haven't watched the Inside Job documentary, I suggest you do it next, it's free on Youtube. Excellent one. It will make some of the things I'm mentioning below, and ahead of us in the near future, much more obvious.

So what's going on is that the queues at mortgages have disappeared already and prices are GOING DOWN. Which hasnt' happened since the 2008 crisis.

In my own home country in Eastern Europe, house building output is up 38% (those guys are getting desperate to sell some stuff soon otherwise they'll be bankrupt, many can't even deliver what they contracted due to material costs); prices are moderately down right now, but demand has fallen overall 70% last month in comparison with one year ago. So yeah, the bubble has gotten a needle pinch and is already deflating.

People are getting scared all over the world, as they're losing their mortgages due to variable rates. They won't buy a house right now, as they already have figured it's the worst timing ever.

That's happening in the US, but also in Europe as well. Next thing - credit will dry out for most companies, small or bigger, because it will become too risky to loan someone but mostly too risky to get a loan for anything. So we're heading fast into that.

As @bmugford (Brad) said once, first months of 2022's economy have been just a bit of dead cat bounce.

- It already happened in China. See the big construction firms in default (google search for "Evergrande" but I know there are others as well)

- The next level burst, unfortunately, is insurance. Which is the backbone of everything.

The 2008 crisis has never been fixed, only minor patches applied. The same things went on although maybe with a different coat (cloak) at times. Now when the chicken comes to roost (as the in the Wolf of Wall Street movie), insurance will have to cover the risk. And they can't, because everything is over-leveraged (read: greed) and therefore they can't cover the losses from a bubble burst. And when that comes, a whole shitstorm is going to happen. (note, browser spelling also does not know the word shitstorm, well perhaps it's about time to add it to the dictionary...?)

- War. Famine in Africa and potential of influx of millions refugees to Europe and perhaps elsewhere as well.

- Booming energy prices. My power bill has just tripled. Gasoline is 50% up where I live. I don't even want to know about natural gas / winter heating prices next. With the potential of Mr. P shutting down the pipe altogether.

- Breakdown in global transportation. There is a potential for more defaults looming, for example land-based transport in Europe due to increasing fuel pricing. I won't talk about sea shipping as we all know about that.

And so on (there are others I haven't mentioned).

The biggest problem, however, is money printing. Trillions, "with a T" as Mr.T would say. Quantitative easing, just a fancy name for money printing - which is the historical end factor of all empires during history. Until all that printing has been sucked into prices and everything and things normalize, which will take time, we're in a shitstorm.

- The FED has just increased the monetary rate policy by a whopping 0.75%. Which hasn't happened since 1994. But they also announced a potential similar increase in a month's name. Which hasn't happened in such fast succession since... I don't know when. Note, there's still however a lot to go and whoever thinks rate will stop at 2.5% is kidding themselves. (side note it's 6% and going to 7% where I live)

- The FED also has mentioned that they expect to be able to stop the inflation by the end of 2024. Which appears to be a more or less correct timeframe if you ask me. But it also means we're 2.5 years to go, still. If you expect it to end sooner, tough luck. Only in 2020, 40% of the dollars in existence has been printed. That load of paper takes years to "gulp in".

- Whoever tells you a depression is still avoidable, is a politician. And might have some skin in it. (Just like one known fellow with a name starting with B. )

Now the question we have to ask is, will this be as bad as the Great Depression of 1929 or not?

I can't answer that question. Nobody can, not even the economists. Each economy crisis is different from any other, so all we have are educated guesses.

I can only share my own educated guess, which is as follows:

- The inflation and its effects will take roughly 3 years to counter. So by 2024-2025, we might no longer see inflation. On the contrary, it might be down at the time.

- But the problem is that by then, all credit will have come to an end. Companies will no longer have access to it in an years' time from now. Note: I already feel this as I have just signed my last credit agreement for years to come. Which I'm prepared to repay should chickens come to roost. If you can't do that for your own credit, you might already be out of luck.

- Economy is like a large ship. Right now that ship is running hot at max speed and icebergs are spotted ahead. What they are trying now is to make it slow down. But the inertia is so big, it takes a lot of time and reverse thrust to put it to a stop.

- But once you do that. the problem is that now it is full stopped. So recession (which already started) will not stop at that point. Will continue to go further, as the economy will now be dry of credit, of reserves, of energy and investor trust. This will also take a similar number of years (at least) to restart.

So if you'd ask me, we are looking currently at a 5 to 6 years recession ahead. Not less.

( Later edit: You will also see a lot of bankruptcies, repossessions and unemployment (in 2 digits %) . Many of those who have left their jobs in the current rush during the pandemic will come to regret it, I think. )

If you overlap this by the ratio of indexes dropping and making your best educated guesses, what could happen is:

- The domain sales will likely continue to decline for the next few years. I'd say that there is a solid chance of a 70% decline in overall sales over the next 1 to 1.5 years. Which means it will be like 2-3 times as worse as right now.

Edit: Some investors which are into far more $$$ figures than me, have confirmed me they're seeing their own sales down as well.

- However some sales will continue to be there. Some prices will reduce, but I don't expect a big reduction there as investors will have huge losses if selling too cheap, as the renewal and registration prices are still high. Rather, the number of sales will be smaller. (Takeaway: don't sell too cheap as that is not going to help you and none of us overall)

- Some investors with a lot of cash might be buying great names for cheaper, prepared to keep them until the sun comes again and they will be able to sell them for great $. Good for them. If you're liquid right now, might be the time to buy the dip.

- (which has been said already): The better names you have, the better off you will be. The smaller your portfolio and the better / high priced / high demand names you have, the better you will be.

- I can safely assume that wholesale domainers and xxx range domainers will be affected mostly, and fast.

There are a lot of similarities with other crisis years in the past but I won't go into that right now as its too speculative though quite solid at times. Instead, feel free to share whatever information you have below and comment.

Thanks!

P.S. If you wondered about my latest sales: I've improved my skills and portfolio by a LOT lately, so I am experiencing great sales currently, but I am just like a surfer riding behind a fast wave ( huge one ...) so I don't know if, and for how long I will be able to ride ahead of that wave, with my own sales. I am moderately hopeful for the next couple years ahead but prepared for the worst. So should you, I'd say.

(edited for clarity, sorry but it appears as a non-native English speaker I'm writing it fast with my feet)
 
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alcy

Top Contributor
Impact
34,568
Just a bit of heads-up to those looking at domain sales (currently down) economy (also down) and who still don't know what to expect next.

Will it be good, will it be bad, will be a soft landing or a hard landing?

I'm not a prophet. But there are things clearly visible already, and we can make some rather well educated assumptions based on them.

But first, why do I ask (myself) such a question? Well, my own livelihood depends on domains (although just partially in my case) and I assume yours might as well, otherwise you wouldn't be here reading this. So yeah it's freakin' important.

There's good and there's bad as well, so let's look into it. (note, feel free to share what you know as well)

The good part? We can already draw some conclusions based on existing data.

So here are some ideas in no particular order:

- We're in the midst of a global crisis (meta-crisis, on many levels), That part is quite clear now for almost everyone. It is also clear that this crisis will affect domain sales, as it will everything else. It already did.

- NASDAQ went down abruptly in the last few months (currently -32%). Since this index is directly related to tech and finance, and since most domain sales come from this area, yeah. It matters.

Note: I am assuming that domain sales are down overall by at least that % or more. (Funny thing, my own sales are actually up significantly - huge sigh of relief from here - but I know not everyone else might be that lucky right now, including those who I talked with).

Also, if it matters, my Afternic rep also confirmed that indeed overall sales are down in significant numbers on the platform.

- Multiple bubbles have already burst. The general tech bubble, and also the crypto bubble. (funny thing, browser spelling doesn't know what "crypto" term is right now and wants me to correct to "crypt").

Tech investors are already spooked. Also your crypto domains might not be in that much demand right now. As a side note I always had the gut feeling crypto domains aren't solid do I stayed out of most of it. I'm happy I did. Just have a few stake names.

- Real estate bubble is already popping. Now this might only be perceived as a small decline at this moment, but it's not. Here's what's happening, and why this is important.

Important tip: If you haven't watched the Inside Job documentary, I suggest you do it next, it's free on Youtube. Excellent one. It will make some of the things I'm mentioning below, and ahead of us in the near future, much more obvious.

So what's going on is that the queues at mortgages have disappeared already and prices are GOING DOWN. Which hasnt' happened since the 2008 crisis.

In my own home country in Eastern Europe, house building output is up 38% (those guys are getting desperate to sell some stuff soon otherwise they'll be bankrupt, many can't even deliver what they contracted due to material costs); prices are moderately down right now, but demand has fallen overall 70% last month in comparison with one year ago. So yeah, the bubble has gotten a needle pinch and is already deflating.

People are getting scared all over the world, as they're losing their mortgages due to variable rates. They won't buy a house right now, as they already have figured it's the worst timing ever.

That's happening in the US, but also in Europe as well. Next thing - credit will dry out for most companies, small or bigger, because it will become too risky to loan someone but mostly too risky to get a loan for anything. So we're heading fast into that.

As @bmugford (Brad) said once, first months of 2022's economy have been just a bit of dead cat bounce.

- It already happened in China. See the big construction firms in default (google search for "Evergrande" but I know there are others as well)

- The next level burst, unfortunately, is insurance. Which is the backbone of everything.

The 2008 crisis has never been fixed, only minor patches applied. The same things went on although maybe with a different coat (cloak) at times. Now when the chicken comes to roost (as the in the Wolf of Wall Street movie), insurance will have to cover the risk. And they can't, because everything is over-leveraged (read: greed) and therefore they can't cover the losses from a bubble burst. And when that comes, a whole shitstorm is going to happen. (note, browser spelling also does not know the word shitstorm, well perhaps it's about time to add it to the dictionary...?)

- War. Famine in Africa and potential of influx of millions refugees to Europe and perhaps elsewhere as well.

- Booming energy prices. My power bill has just tripled. Gasoline is 50% up where I live. I don't even want to know about natural gas / winter heating prices next. With the potential of Mr. P shutting down the pipe altogether.

- Breakdown in global transportation. There is a potential for more defaults looming, for example land-based transport in Europe due to increasing fuel pricing. I won't talk about sea shipping as we all know about that.

And so on (there are others I haven't mentioned).

The biggest problem, however, is money printing. Trillions, "with a T" as Mr.T would say. Quantitative easing, just a fancy name for money printing - which is the historical end factor of all empires during history. Until all that printing has been sucked into prices and everything and things normalize, which will take time, we're in a shitstorm.

- The FED has just increased the monetary rate policy by a whopping 0.75%. Which hasn't happened since 1994. But they also announced a potential similar increase in a month's name. Which hasn't happened in such fast succession since... I don't know when. Note, there's still however a lot to go and whoever thinks rate will stop at 2.5% is kidding themselves. (side note it's 6% and going to 7% where I live)

- The FED also has mentioned that they expect to be able to stop the inflation by the end of 2024. Which appears to be a more or less correct timeframe if you ask me. But it also means we're 2.5 years to go, still. If you expect it to end sooner, tough luck. Only in 2020, 40% of the dollars in existence has been printed. That load of paper takes years to "gulp in".

- Whoever tells you a depression is still avoidable, is a politician. And might have some skin in it. (Just like one known fellow with a name starting with B. )

Now the question we have to ask is, will this be as bad as the Great Depression of 1929 or not?

I can't answer that question. Nobody can, not even the economists. Each economy crisis is different from any other, so all we have are educated guesses.

I can only share my own educated guess, which is as follows:

- The inflation and its effects will take roughly 3 years to counter. So by 2024-2025, we might no longer see inflation. On the contrary, it might be down at the time.

- But the problem is that by then, all credit will have come to an end. Companies will no longer have access to it in an years' time from now. Note: I already feel this as I have just signed my last credit agreement for years to come. Which I'm prepared to repay should chickens come to roost. If you can't do that for your own credit, you might already be out of luck.

- Economy is like a large ship. Right now that ship is running hot at max speed and icebergs are spotted ahead. What they are trying now is to make it slow down. But the inertia is so big, it takes a lot of time and reverse thrust to put it to a stop.

- But once you do that. the problem is that now it is full stopped. So recession (which already started) will not stop at that point. Will continue to go further, as the economy will now be dry of credit, of reserves, of energy and investor trust. This will also take a similar number of years (at least) to restart.

So if you'd ask me, we are looking currently at a 5 to 6 years recession ahead. Not less.

( Later edit: You will also see a lot of bankruptcies, repossessions and unemployment (in 2 digits %) . Many of those who have left their jobs in the current rush during the pandemic will come to regret it, I think. )

If you overlap this by the ratio of indexes dropping and making your best educated guesses, what could happen is:

- The domain sales will likely continue to decline for the next few years. I'd say that there is a solid chance of a 70% decline in overall sales over the next 1 to 1.5 years. Which means it will be like 2-3 times as worse as right now.

Edit: Some investors which are into far more $$$ figures than me, have confirmed me they're seeing their own sales down as well.

- However some sales will continue to be there. Some prices will reduce, but I don't expect a big reduction there as investors will have huge losses if selling too cheap, as the renewal and registration prices are still high. Rather, the number of sales will be smaller. (Takeaway: don't sell too cheap as that is not going to help you and none of us overall)

- Some investors with a lot of cash might be buying great names for cheaper, prepared to keep them until the sun comes again and they will be able to sell them for great $. Good for them. If you're liquid right now, might be the time to buy the dip.

- (which has been said already): The better names you have, the better off you will be. The smaller your portfolio and the better / high priced / high demand names you have, the better you will be.

- I can safely assume that wholesale domainers and xxx range domainers will be affected mostly, and fast.

There are a lot of similarities with other crisis years in the past but I won't go into that right now as its too speculative though quite solid at times. Instead, feel free to share whatever information you have below and comment.

Thanks!

P.S. If you wondered about my latest sales: I've improved my skills and portfolio by a LOT lately, so I am experiencing great sales currently, but I am just like a surfer riding behind a fast wave ( huge one ...) so I don't know if, and for how long I will be able to ride ahead of that wave, with my own sales. I am moderately hopeful for the next couple years ahead but prepared for the worst. So should you, I'd say.

(edited for clarity, sorry but it appears as a non-native English speaker I'm writing it fast with my feet)

nobody knows what happens next. that most certainly includes u
 

twiki

Top Contributor
Impact
21,714
Hi

so, which is it?

imo...
Both.

You have probably skimmed the original post.

Edit: But to make it simple for you and anyone else wondering. I've increased my performance by much more than the current market decline. Doubled at least. That's why I am making more right now. And I'm heading into much better performance so I expect even more.

So I'm in a good situation where I have improved a lot recently and will continue to do so (due to things I know well). But not everyone is in a similar situation.
 
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Impact
14,055
You have probably skimmed the original post.
Hi

all the rest was speculation, about something none of us can control

and basically,
you're just telling folks the sky is falling or going to fall,
except it ain't falling on you, because you're doing so great.

glad that you are, but there is nothing concrete, to take from it.

imo...
 

twiki

Top Contributor
Impact
21,714
Hi

all the rest was speculation, about something none of us can control

and basically,
you're just telling folks the sky is falling or going to fall,
except it ain't falling on you, because you're doing so great.

glad that you are, but there is nothing concrete, to take from it.

imo...
I think there is. Threads that you can follow next for more information down the line. Facts at hand and argumentation as to what and why. But yes it's debatable and maybe not for everyone I guess. If it doesn't provide info to you, I understand, sorry about that.

I haven't said it's not falling on me. Who ever knows. We're all still in far less control than we think, in all situations. All I'm saying is that for now I am ahead of the wave, and thankful for that. Wish the same to you and other domainers here on the forum. But the whole post expresses the doubt, whether this bit of advance will be for me, I don't know. I am just hopeful for now, without any guarantees ahead.

Any projection is a form of speculation. You can't see what lies ahead without that.

But the more facts and data you have, the less it is a speculation and the more becomes projection with a growing basis to become reality. This basis is now rather strong. So we have to thread carefully.

Thanks for commenting and good luck to you as well in your sales!
 
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diji04

Established Member
Impact
32
Twiki and Bob are the most intricate writers I have ever come across, Thanks for the insightful and detailed analysis of the present Economy position, we here at Namepros highly enjoy every effort in your research.
 

twiki

Top Contributor
Impact
21,714
I'm gonna post some news and updates in this thread, letting everyone decide whether it's significant or not. With some of my interpretation of the thing.

As a side note, I don't intend to scare anyone. But if my business experience has taught me something, is that one should always hope for the best but always prepare for the worst. Especially when the latter is quite visible lately.

The better you are informed, the better the decisions you make. Otherwise, just as @biggie said, you (we) don't have control over it. No - but you have control over your own money and decisions and that's going to be critical next.

For now, here's some UK news from Reuters - BoE withdraws mortgage affordability test.

This is NOT about making mortgages more affordable to young people who can't do it without their parents helping, if you might have thought about that. The thing was there for a reason. This is deregulation.

Its about the bubble bursting, banks know about it and they called their representative politicians and said: "Look, the shit has already hit the fan, therefore you need to cut this off right now or you won't see any election money next.".

Give the dead cat an electric zap and it might bounce a couple times more.
 
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This is deregulation.
Hi
back in 2000 > 2001, some mortgage lenders in USA were giving out "No-Doc" loans.
it's where you didn't have to submit "pre-qualifying" financial stability documents, prior to getting the loan.

there were lots of homes purchased across the country during this time, where quite a few were able to acquire property that was "above their means.
that other financial investments helped kick-off the "predatory mortgage" schemes, which later lead to downfall of housing market, prior to Obama first term.

so, what they are doing "BOE", is not deregulation.

it's a set-up....

imo...
 

twiki

Top Contributor
Impact
21,714
Hi
back in 2000 > 2001, some mortgage lenders in USA were giving out "No-Doc" loans.
it's where you didn't have to submit "pre-qualifying" financial stability documents, prior to getting the loan.

there were lots of homes purchased across the country during this time, where quite a few were able to acquire property that was "above their means.
that other financial investments helped kick-off the "predatory mortgage" schemes, which later lead to downfall of housing market, prior to Obama first term.

so, what they are doing "BOE", is not deregulation.

it's a set-up....

imo...
They are removing the mechanism to allow more subprimes. Banks are rushing to get what's left on the table before the table gets empty - quite soon. Edit: This will only accelerate the bubble burst and make it worse.

Everyone loses from this. We all lose. The only ones winning (right now) are the bankers with their full pockets.

The most hit will be mortgage owners which are going to lose everything once more. Just like in 2008.

Edit: But the overall market default, the bailouts, the after-shock effects, that will be affecting me, you and everyone else reading this. Indirectly but almost as if directly, meaning full and frontal.
 
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twiki

Top Contributor
Impact
21,714
In other words, let's make more NINJA loans ("no income, no job or assets"). That's what this market needs, we need to pump up yet more fat banker bonuses.
 
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zomainhacks

Top Contributor
Impact
2,259
Nobody really knows as you've already said.

That's true, we are into a recession but I don't think it will last long, we'll continue to witness inflation, huge volatility and overall more risk for the same expected returns but the current global economy is way more adaptive than 2008/2009, not mentioning the 1929.

The set of sellable domains is already shrinking and my guess is that it will continue to do so for 8/12 months but I'm convinced that it will be always possible having reasonable STR with medium quality domains, moreover wholesale prices will considerably go down so my prospects are not so dark.
 

twiki

Top Contributor
Impact
21,714
but the current global economy is way more adaptive than 2008/2009, not mentioning the 1929

I have to strongly disagree on the above. I believe you are not well informed.

The economy is inflated like a balloon and a burst will not pass overnight. The mechanisms needed to hold things together were only scarcely implemented.

Yes we learned a lot from 2008 but this ain't no 2008. This is either a one in 50 year or one in 100 year economical crisis. But it's just forming so everything right now seems sweet, just as it was in early 2007.

Doubling the mass of printed money in just under 3 years - that's insane, criminal, absolutely destructive. We're now simply holding steady and waiting for the waves to hit. Wave after wave after wave.
The set of sellable domains is already shrinking

I don't understand this, what do you mean exactly? The mass of registered domains is still there.

I agree with the other things you said BTW.
 

koolishman

Top Contributor
Impact
7,703
I follow this youtube channel by Kartik Gada. Brilliant guy.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCuRX67CJhaOT98Jdjh85CEQ.

Read his profound work here.

https://atom.singularity2050.com/


He argues with data that, advancing technology brings about deflation, which balances the money printing by Central banks. Fed should keep printing money as technological deflation is here. He also advocates direct transfer of money.

His contention is that inflation in macro sense is within range. He abhors cherry picking category of food and say there is inflation.

He bashes traditional economists regularly for inflation-mongering.

His prediction for technological singularity is 2062 +/- 8 years.
 
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zomainhacks

Top Contributor
Impact
2,259
I have to strongly disagree on the above. I believe you are not well informed.

The economy is inflated like a balloon and a burst will not pass overnight. The mechanisms needed to hold things together were only scarcely implemented.

Yes we learned a lot from 2008 but this ain't no 2008. This is either a one in 50 year or one in 100 year economical crisis. But it's just forming so everything right now seems sweet, just as it was in early 2007.

Doubling the mass of printed money in just under 3 years - that's insane, criminal, absolutely destructive. We're now simply holding steady and waiting for the waves to hit.
I'm not talking about policy instruments, I'm saying that the length of the crisis will be shorter given the level of integration of the current world economy (i.e. things go way more faster today than in 2008/2009).

And I don't believe globalization is coming to
an end, quite the opposite.

I don't understand this, what do you mean exactly? The mass of registered domains is still there.

What I'm saying is that domains that were worth acquiring for resell purposes last year don't worth the same investment today.
 

twiki

Top Contributor
Impact
21,714
What I'm saying is that domains that were worth acquiring for resell purposes last year don't worth the same investment today.

Oh I see now.

Well, in a bit of detail and based on my tests, prices haven't really changed and I don't really expect changes due to the fact that registrar pricing is the same or a bit increased, not reduced. This affects retail price, and also inflation tends to increase price. Anyway if you decrease your prices now, it's a mistake. You'll get less sales, not more (value degrade in customer's eyes). You have to adjust the buy instead.

Yearly sales ratio has declined indeed.

This means that you will have to focus on better names today, in order to maintain profit in a more competitive space (less sales means you have to have the better names). Perhaps fewer, more expensive but more competitive. If that's what you mean, then you are correct. But there's a big but:

On the other hand, as more and more domainers will be spooked next, as more domain owners will have less money to renew etc or need money to pay their mortgages etc. more expired domains will flood the market. (This hasn't taken off yet but I see the signs.) So this abundance should compensate for the above competitive restrictions.

Overall, I don't see a significat difference in names availability, but rather in how you need plan and design your portfolio.

Edit: Both the high market and the middle market ( the one that you and me are into) will continue to perform reasonably well if you do your work properly, although profits are not going to be as they used to be, in my opinion. But we will be able to make a living, again if we do our work properly. On that positive expectation I concur.
 
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twiki

Top Contributor
Impact
21,714

zomainhacks

Top Contributor
Impact
2,259
Oh I see now.

Well, in a bit of detail and based on my tests, prices haven't really changed and I don't really expect changes due to the fact that registrar pricing is the same or a bit increased, not reduced. This affects retail price, and also inflation tends to increase price. Anyway if you decrease your prices now, it's a mistake. You'll get less sales, not more (value degrade in customer's eyes). You have to adjust the buy instead.

Yearly sales ratio has declined indeed.

This means that you will have to focus on better names today, in order to maintain profit in a more competitive space (less sales means you have to have the better names). Perhaps fewer, more expensive but more competitive. If that's what you mean, then you are correct. But there's a big but:

On the other hand, as more and more domainers will be spooked next, as more domain owners will have less money to renew etc or need money to pay their mortgages etc. more expired domains will flood the market. (This hasn't taken off yet but I see the signs.) So this abundance should compensate for the above competitive restrictions.

Overall, I don't see a significat difference in names availability, but rather in how you need plan and design your portfolio.

Edit: Both the high market and the middle market ( the one that you and me are into) will continue to perform reasonably well if you do your work properly, although profits are not going to be as they used to be, in my opinion. But we will be able to make a living, again if we do our work properly. On that positive expectation I concur.
The true big uncertainty IMO are energy prices and grain price pressure on third world countries, the rest was quite well predictable even in 2020.

The Russians are playing like they are ready for a long conflinct but if you look at the daily rate at which both armies lose lives and equipment it's clear it is not possible going on for more than another 3/4 months.

Will gas market resume as usual after the war? Probably not but at some point it will be inevitable, pipelines are there ready to work full capacity and both parties are eager to trade.
 
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biix
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