NamesCon2020

Holo vs VR vs MR vs AR vs any other reality (All realities)

Located in Niche Domain Discussion started by VRdommy, Aug 16, 2016.

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  1. Levi_charlz

    Levi_charlz Account Auto-Closed

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    The views expressed on this page by users and staff are their own, not those of NamePros.
  2. VRdommy

    VRdommy Top Member VIP

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    Meanwhile, back in the VR world...
    Facebook’s VR sales have finally taken off
    https://qz.com/1739575/strong-oculus-quest-sales-boost-facebooks-non-advertising-revenue/

    -Quest 180k units in Q3 - 400k units so far this year (since 5.21.19).
    Funny no numbers for Rift S. Is it a telling tale for a stand-alone?

    I would think this one model is on track for selling half a million in Q4.
    And that would be the respectable sales level I have been waiting to see.
    That should make about 1M units in one year period.
    In the eyes of DEVs , that is a market to sell to.

    But... back to the names side of this, that would be mostly 'brands' that would be generated.
    Those with a private ecosystems generate 'little need' for names to sell products.
    Moreover for this, Facebook the likely winner x2
    I just want to see a few others numbers for Q3..
     
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2019
  3. Levi_charlz

    Levi_charlz Account Auto-Closed

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    From what Robert Scoble was saying, those figures are going to be dwarfed in comparison to Apples AR Glasses.

    He thinks the new 5G phone will sell IRO 70 Million units (Q1) and if 5 - 10% buy glasses that will be between 3.5 - 7 Million pairs in Q1.

    Now those are figures are pretty insane.
     
  4. VRdommy

    VRdommy Top Member VIP

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    Don't you think that is a bit premature statement to make when we do not know the capability or the price ?
    It's a lot of assumption.
    I expect it to be a well polished product when it hits RETAIL.
    And I would say it at least has the potential of that. Depending on capability and price. But I will say again that I don't think this device is what most are expecting.
    But I'm still waiting on the transparent iPhone and other things he promised about 3 years ago.
    Read back in this thread searching scoble by date ascending

    Don't bet your lunch money on his talk.
    Many of these guys make a claim to fame paying insiders for photos (in china) and making some wild guesses about what it is they think they see. And then assume that it is a production unit and not a batch of testing prototypes. They get some things right and get many others wrong. But they make money because they generate followers saying what folks want to hear.

    But I can hope that they are all correct on this. But I don't think so. Hope I am wrong.

    If you look back about 6 months ago, I think I linked Apples AR release to 5G breakout.
    Here is some info on where 5G coverage is right now. Not a big reason to upgrade unless you live in one of those cities. So you have to stay there to enjoy it. It will be 2 years before I have it where I live. maybe more.
    https://www.androidcentral.com/heres-every-us-city-5g-coverage-right-now
    I guess my point is, there is no hurry to beat anyone out. You can't. More important to 'get it right' the first time.

    5G does not help with the communication with the eye-wear. It would help with swallowing large chunks of data like 4k video for VR but I doubt this initial product is going to be a VR device nor display 4K much better than it would 1.5K. And that is fully capable on LTE. In fact I doubt it is going to be more than a Utility Eye-wear. I don't think Apple wants to fill your eyes with video. The money is in the utility aspects. I don't expect this to retail for more than $499-$699 but at least less than $1k as a retail product.
    Using cell channels to update the apps output and wifi to update the glasses. You are not going to want 5G RF right against the head in any case. That is yet one more story on the slowing of 5G deployment. Health concerns with 5G RF. Locals are putting up fights about 5G towers near schools and playgrounds etc.

    So what it or most VR standalones really needs is a high speed wifi. . Here is a summery where that is right now.
    https://www.cnet.com/news/wi-fi-6-and-what-it-means-for-you-wifi-routers/

    5G and wifi6 will change everything for VR stand-alones. I'm sure Oculus and HTC are both on it.
    Most stand-alones are already using Qualcomm's cell chip CPU/GPU as it is.

    I would expect Apple to announce something next year to get dev interest started.
    But Retail 2021. Those retail sales numbers are 'possible'. But I'm not betting on them.
    The story for the coming year is VR stand-alones. We can hope there is more....
     
  5. Levi_charlz

    Levi_charlz Account Auto-Closed

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    very premature! He was just high off the Audio tech. But can’t knock his enthusiasm .
     
  6. Domainsyrup

    Domainsyrup Top Member VIP

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    Anyone interested in GameMR.com ? Thanks :)
     
  7. Murray

    Murray Established Member

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    You wanna give me???😉
     
  8. VRdommy

    VRdommy Top Member VIP

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    Last edited: Nov 7, 2019
  9. DomainBarracksRob

    DomainBarracksRob Top Member VIP

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    So thought I would share this

    This was one of my first purchases as a noob in 2017

    Didn’t know what I was really doing and still learning

    Only dropped it do to the $40 renewal

    Wish I hadn’t :(

    Vrar.media

    Live and learn !

    Enjoy

    If you’re on desktop ( you can use Page Translation)
     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2019
  10. VRdommy

    VRdommy Top Member VIP

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    Common story...LOL...
    But if you are going to buy-and-hold many alt tld's that are expensive, you need to be extra certain that it is something special and can not be worked around with just a .com. .net or even some other alt tld etc.
    I have a few, but they are tied into the .com's that I hold and the name compliments the TLD so I hold them as a package that nobody can move a similar name and steal traffic. Worth more that way..
    Just my thoughts, your mileage may vary.
     
  11. Bernard Wright

    Bernard Wright Established Member

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    Your tendency not to "believe the hype" helps strike a balance that I think does these threads some good.

    The chicken/egg paradox will remain as we await content and hardware production levels to increase. You raise another important piece of the puzzle: 5G, which could be seen as the middleman who delivers the content to the hardware. And this puzzle piece appears to be making some notable developments. The roll-out is no doubt expensive and met with contempt by some. Yet towers are going up. Are there any present-day technologies that would benefit from 5G such that, even if we are indeed years from a consumer product launch, the 5G towers would be needed now? What/who stands to benefit from 5G today, with no (or very limited) AR/VR consumer devices?

    And to touch upon the "met with contempt by some" element of 5G, it's my belief that there is much to society's adoption of technology that is driven nearly entirely by what I consider an "ain't it neat?" motivation, with little consideration of likely-negative consequences. I think this "ain't it neat" element would/will be a convenient card for telcos and the tech companies to be able to hold in their hands, so as to quell opposition. ...manufactured pros to help outweigh the apparent cons to 5G. Would it not be an optimal strategy for the telcos to deploy 5G at a time when its "pros" could be experienced by the masses and partially-quell the health concerns?

    Which leads me back to the previous paragraph. High costs of deployment and health concerns. Why do so if the hardware isn't trailing far behind?
     
    Last edited: Nov 9, 2019
  12. Bernard Wright

    Bernard Wright Established Member

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    I should also point out that I did read your thoughts about 5G wearables being a health hazard. I think it’s not only 5G that should be a concern, but also the retinal degradation resulting from LEDs. There may be more concerns I haven’t yet paid much thought to.

    I’m still working off of the assumption that AR/VR devices will be 5G. Most articles I’ve read have stated as much.
     
  13. VRdommy

    VRdommy Top Member VIP

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    There is a lot to know on the subject of 5G and I am not a new comer to 'trunk radio' (the grandfather to all cellular communications and still the basis for functionality). I have been in/with the tech in other areas since before GSM/CDMA really started in the US.
    A quick background on the towers... (not well detailed)
    The object to cellular coverage is not to have a few high profile coverage towers because you only have so many channels to divide up to the coverage area. And only so many folks you can service at one time.
    It is called cellular because each tower is a 'cell' with a specific coverage area and the engineers get to set the profile and height to only cover that specific area around it. They do not hardly overlap at all.

    Hoping you understand a little about radio spectrum and bandwidth...
    Higher speeds require higher bandwidth, but you only have a limited radio spectrum to work with.
    If you want higher speeds, you need more bandwidth. That means less channels per tower.
    The remedy is, more towers that cover a smaller footprint. Then you can use the same channel multiple times in the older cell area because the new smaller cells do not overlap. Generally speaking, they will not be as high and will be more numerous.

    Now to the frequency of some of the new bands that have been licensed but not used...
    The higher frequency you go, the greater the penetration of that RF into the skin and the more likely-hood of altering a gene and perhaps create a cancer or at least a tumor or other unnatural growth.
    Even though the power at these frequency's will likely be lower and one could argue about safety of it, you do not want to get high concentrations of that near your head. It's like having a leaky microwave oven in the room. I'll let others speak to that. The controversy will slow it's progression in the US and maybe the EU and the only reason I really mention it.

    Getting to some point on this,
    You can understand that while they 'can use' existing towers, they need more of them to take the same number of channels and multiply them by not making one cell unit bigger, but actually smaller.
    The number of towers will have to triple at least to have 5G coverage like you now enjoy 4G.
    It's not going to happen overnight. Nor in a year or two. The cell co's like to advertise they have 5G coverage in places they have it, but it is still a spotty set-up. They just want you to think they are on top of it.

    So who needs it now...
    It has always been about MEDIA for a cell co. Yes the cell co's have been buying media co's or getting invested in them for control for the past few years. they know what they are about to do. Most others do not see it yet.
    They want to be able to deliver 4K/UHD media to your home entertainment or anywhere you go just as you now enjoy cable with netflix etc.(be a cable competitor) But VR is also a high bandwidth and to really enjoy a VR/360 video in 3d/stereo takes a 4K stream 'and better'. Anything less is not considered hi-res in VR as you are only seeing less than 1/3 - 1/6th of the full video at one time depending on your FOV.
    When it comes to games, it is not necessarily going to need the same 4K stream capability because much of it will be generated at the device and from device storage. The actual stream of updating in a live gameplay against others is not really that much a volume issue but it does need to be 'near real time without latency', but not really high volume data. And the same would follow with AR and in most instances, would normally be even less. And again, it really needs low latency not necessarily high volume data. But that is application specific.
    Buffering data to avoid the latency has worked for what you enjoy now,
    but not for what is to come
    . The future is more about real time interaction.

    Politically speaking, the cell carriers were trying to 'sell it' to you while they were trying to get the regulatory authorities on-board by pushing the demand envelope. That was the HYPE. Their ability to deliver this everywhere is not as fast as they lead you to think. It's a major undertaking. The Phone makers are not to much in a hurry because it is unlikely to be deployed to 20% of US populations in the next year anyway. But everyone will have at least one 5G phone in their lineup next year.
    But other countries may not be the same such as Korea and Japan etc. 'Smaller geographies' and the will to do it will allow them 80% coverage in 2 years or less.
    I would suspect that all the more premium phones will have it in 2 years and many low end phones may never have it. They do not have a CPU/GPU to take advantage of it. What would the purpose be.

    If it is executed as proposed, it should provide the bandwidth everyone wants without crowding, but more important a much lower level of latency. I am sure there will be problems to be worked out as it deploys.

    All that said, I hope some have a better understanding of how this fits into the current picture and more important when. It does fit into 'when the tech is viable' and the progression of when for those tech names.
    At least, for the record, that is how I see it. Ain't it neat ! LOL
     
  14. Bernard Wright

    Bernard Wright Established Member

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    A very thoughtful and informative reply. Thank you for sharing your insight.

    Somewhat related but a bit of a change in topic, since I know some in here like news stories:

    Yahoo News Kicks off Immersive News Initiative With Camp Fire AR Story (EXCLUSIVE)

    Yahoo News published an augmented reality (AR) feature dubbed “Rebuilding Paradise” as part of a new partner program for immersive news content Thursday.

    https://variety.com/2019/digital/news/yahoo-news-rebuilding-paradise-camp-fire-xr-video-1203395456/

    Edit: here is the yahoo link. Apparently the AR stuff requires a Yahoo News app.

    https://news.yahoo.com/rebuilding-p...finds-healing-in-starting-over-110051114.html
     
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2019
  15. NextGen Brand

    NextGen Brand Upgraded Member Gold Account VIP

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  16. Winfluence

    Winfluence Top Member VIP

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    Thanks...

    Here's the MacRumers story for those who don't want to register at TheInformation.com

    Apple Said to Release AR Headset With 3D Scanning in 2022, Followed by Sleeker Glasses in 2023

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.macrumors.com/2019/11/11/apple-augmented-reality-headset-2022/amp/

    I'm a little relieved that the rumor about 2020 is not true, but cause the competition seemed kind of primitive. I'd and far behind in development. I would like to see a lot of options from a variety of companies around the time Apple releases their first ar headset. Being the perfectionists they are I don't blame them for wanting to spend more time on dev, especially since they are not the kınd of company to release an unfinished product (prototype).
     
  17. Levi_charlz

    Levi_charlz Account Auto-Closed

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    Very wise to hang back for economic reasons as well. There’s a lot going on right now.
     
  18. VRdommy

    VRdommy Top Member VIP

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    Now That Is News.
    Not Rumor.
    I guessing from their actions in the past that they did not want to disappoint investors who may have been placing weight on those rumors and made a statement they otherwise would not have made to avoid that disappointment.

    Based on this NEWS
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ll-start-with-ipad-and-culminate-with-glasses

    It looks as if the first unit for production is something more closely resembling a
    Windows MR headset and or Oculus Quest if it is stand alone as I suspect it will be stand alone and be fed by a apple device like the phone or possibly their watch.. How close to a WMR remains to be seen.

    If you think about it, they are perfectly poised to do a stand alone AR/VR headset (like a wmr) and have the ecosystem for delivery of apps/games everyone else wish they had.
    Their timing would be perfect as the industry will be in full bloom.

    But it is nice to have it clear at this point and does the entire industry a favor.
     
  19. VRdommy

    VRdommy Top Member VIP

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    If you make it and make it great, everyone will buy one right ? (speaking to all devices)

    The investors take may be very telling.
    https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/11/12/3-reasons-facebooks-vr-bet-hasnt-paid-off.aspx

    As I did say a few years ago, when enough of these devices are out there, your neighbor or friend will make the sale as they let others try it. Much to do with the take in that article. I don't think it matters if you are speaking VR or AR, but I was speaking to VR at the time.

    As much as I do not like Oculus/FACEBOOK mainly, the 'Quest' is going to change the industry this x-mas/winter season in line with the above (HTC stand alone included). The numbers are there. Not that we will not see a good many new hi-end sales to go with that. Mass numbers on these stand-alones will be self evident.

    All progressions of this stuff come in steps and this is a big one in my opinion. Actually giving it the kick-start it needs. I'll even go out on a limb and say I expect VR names to be on a considerable uptick in the second half of 2020 as the software dev's begin biting on the numbers. Perhaps even earlier.
     
  20. VRdommy

    VRdommy Top Member VIP

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    A Good Read

    ,,,Over the next few months Facebook’s standalone Quest VR system — already room-scale with controller tracking — will gain two modes that completely change the value proposition for the all-in-one VR headset...

    https://uploadvr.com/editorial-oculus-2019-quest/
     
  21. VRdommy

    VRdommy Top Member VIP

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  22. DomainBarracksRob

    DomainBarracksRob Top Member VIP

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    https://www.google.com/search?q=rel...69i57j69i61.6648j1j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8 (Google Front Page Search)


    https://next.reality.news/news/goog...pturing-relightable-volumetric-video-0213517/



    This Week 1 day ago!

    Taking AR and XR further



    Someone beat me to the Singular

    but I just got the plural

    Relightables (.com) :)


    ................

    "the" Version is still available but i didn't want to reg it as that looks like Google has Termed Their Team

    https://augmentedperception.github.io/therelightables/
    The Relightables:
    Volumetric Performance Capture of Humans with Realistic Relighting



     
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2019 at 4:34 PM
  23. Elad n

    Elad n Top Member VIP

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    VolumetricVideos(.)com
    VolumetricTechnology(.)com
     
  24. VRdommy

    VRdommy Top Member VIP

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    Should the term become something... the plural you have will likely be the better choice.
    Good luck.
     
  25. DomainBarracksRob

    DomainBarracksRob Top Member VIP

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    Thanks :)

    I actually dig it and think it’s quite catchy.

    If so it will also be my 1st .com. 1 WORD and hand/regd at that lol
     

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