Labeled as humor in The Break Room, started by .NJ, Jan 3, 2016
Doesn't look like the bubble has burst quite yet...
When do you guys think the "pop" will happen?
In 2 years maybe
December 2016 - January 2017
21st March 2016 11PM Chinese Time
Depends on what you call a pop. Just prices going lower or a burst with prices sub build up. I wouldn't hold my breath for a burst on quality short letter domains. Instead keep an eye out for price drops on longer numerical and things like palindromes, repetitive sequences.
The dog hasn't bit down quite yet. Received the highest blind offer to date on one of my 5N about an hour ago.
I agree with @johname
Would also add some of the more risky extensions could pull back at some point.
Remember that time someone wrote an article about how the Chinese domain bubble would burst because the Chinese stock market was stable and liquid .... And then their market tanked 7% and a circuit breaker halted all that liquidity?
What ballpark was the offer?
The whole rush to PinYin domains was predicated on the idea that their value would only increase... and then it leveled out, and started to fall. The 6N peak and deflation (not bust) happened rather quickly over 8 weeks.
Seeing a lot of 6N at not-so-stellar prices. Nobody wants this to happen, but confidence in the domain as a warehouse of value dependent on Pinyin letter configurations is a bit shaky at the moment.
As domains themselves, when 4L.coms were reaching $2800+ the flippers stopped flipping because the flippers stopped buying. Risk was great, and traditionally end users (and flippers) don't want to pay that much for 4L, even if it matches their business. Corporations, large infrastructure, or tech ventures will pay - but most 4L's that already match a corp will sell for much more than liquid price at auction, or they are not for sale.
So if you a buying a random 4L.com that has a weak letter composition and no end user in sight it's risky enough, especially at near $3k prices.
As 'chips' to be traded like a stock or currency; the value strictly lies in the market consensus of their value. As sentiment fell, so did the price.
No matter where the Chinese stock market goes, I think confidence was shaken in 4L'coms as 'chips' - so far when that happens to a digital currency you have seen it's peak, and it doesn't return.
We shall see.
There are so many 4L and 5L compared to the 4N and 5N. Numbers will hold up better, letters have to have meaning or quality patterns.
Starting July 2016. Some of the Chinese hosters/registrars have low non-renewal rates as the Chinese market seems quite volatile and more geared towards trading than others. The bulk of the non renewals should occur between November 2016 and February 2017.
the balloon has already popped......
you just haven't heard the sound yet
If market activity decreases and prices come down the balloon will be deflated. Lucky market activity can be seen on a daily/hourly basis so we would know as soon as it happens.
We've also seen the return of many 4L.com chips to the forum... when they all but vanished during the price peak. I don't take that as a good sign for 'chips' at all.
*yes I like images.
Today received offers from Chinese "buyers" for any 4L com chips $1800 each. It used to be 1500 before
Anyone who Is familiar with the financial world could see the bubble a mile away.
Something that was worth $25 last year with no real relative use is now worth $2500+....
Prime example of an inflated bubble.
Reminds me of the penny stock days....
And the collapse (or pop) is staring everyone right in their face.
It's has already began. The yardsales are everywhere....
Don't be the one holding the garbage bag because your forgot to put it at the curb the night before....
Some people from the West think that this is quite normal that ibco.com cost $2.500 but at the same time do not understand why qzxy.com may cost the same price. They don't understand that for the Chinese qzxy has more meaning that icbo. Instead of taking some time trying to understand this situation they call it bubble.
Yes, look at the yardsale at Namejet last month.
And the NamesCon auction next week is also setting up to be quite the yard sale...
The funny (or worrying ?) thing is that so many Chinese are waking up at the same time and suddenly see the light.
Increase in prices for rare commodities is something normal when the process is gradual.
When domains that used to be dismissed as garbage until recently become premium almost overnight, and start trading at sky-rocketing prices, it has the pattern of a bubble in formation.
Have you noticed how they have been buying in bulk in crap TLDs. You don't smell anything wrong ?
Also, it has to be kept in mind that the whole Chinese economy is riding on a bubble right now... The upcoming credit crunch might very well dwarf that of 2008.
The domain industry is nothing new to the chinese market.
What is new though is the overnight inflated hype on worthless domains.
If these so called "chips" are so valuable, then why we're they impossible to even give away less then a year ago??
It's an invented value....
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