This is over, was just looking at the map of the last election below. All Joe has to do is win 3 states the Dems normally do, that Trump won last time. Assuming Joe wins all the states Hillary did last election, which he will.
The 3 states Trump won last election that Dems normally win are:
Michigan - Biden +6.5
Pennsylvania - Biden +4.3
Wisconsin - Biden +6.4
Biden is leading all 3. That'll be 278. That's a win. And he'll probably flip a few of the red states you see below just to add to the total.
Right now from the Red States below that Trump won last election, Joe is leading in:
Georgia
Florida
Arizona
Iowa
North Carolina
Leading in those states that Trump won last time but doesn't need any of them, not 1.