It is a great question you ask,
@mattock (and welcome to NamePros!).
Unfortunately i don't have time for as full an answer as your question deserves, but here is what I would suggest.
- Start off by compiling a list of similar past sales using NameBio data. For example, if you have a two-word com search for names that start with the first word, and separately those that end with the second word, and also search for sales of similar words. In the combined list order it in terms of price.
- On the price-ordered list determine where your name would rank. This is, of course, subjective but figure out where on the list you would regard 50% of the names as worse than your own. You may also want to take into account that NameBio is a mix of wholesale (to domain investors) and retail sales. For example if you plan to only sell to end users you may want to discard sales where the price and venue imply a wholesale transaction.
- Look at the competition. For example, use Dofo.com to find what other extensions the exact name is for sale in, and if BIN the prices. How many similar names are registered? Is there a really similar name that is almost as good? You are selling a .net, look at if the same word in .network is available to register. You are selling a .com, but it is an area where the .org is a good choice too, see if it is for sale and at what price. Use what you find to temper your estimate in the next step.
- Based on its position compared to past sales, and your own estimate of other factors such as trends in the niche, visual and oral strength, etc., write down a price range estimate based on your own research. You may take into account how badly you want/need to sell the domain name in a certain time period. Writing positives and negatives about the name is helpful at this time. For example, is it a little weak on radio test, or does it contain repeated letters between words that might cause visual confusion.
- Now look at the appraisal tools. View these as second opinions. I would here, for a .com, look at all three of GoValue, Estibot and NameWorth. You probably will find really different values. Note that NameWorth give you 6 prices, according to your timeframe, the type of buyer and probability of sale. You can do 5 free daily at NameWorth, 2 free at Estibot, and as many as you want at GoValue. Note that GoValue will almost always show you comparator sales not in NameBio, so you might want to go back and alter your list in step #2. That gives you an idea of how much uncertainty there is in any estimate. As with any second opinion you might move your price up or down a bit. But remember that it is a second opinion. You know your name and its market better than the bot, or at least you should.
- Especially when you feel really in doubt, ask some humans who know the domain market. Anyone can do this in the appraisal area, or you may prefer to do it privately with a few people who you know and trust. Treat this as a second opinion though. You should know your names best. You can do something like ignore the outliers if you get multiple opinions.
- Ask some ordinary people, not what they think it should sell for, but give them a lineup that is your name mixed with some that have sold (without telling them which is which). That may help you alter your ranking in step #2.
Okay that did get a little long
after all. If you are really uncertain, it might be best to leave the name MakeOffer, although that will keep you out of the Fast Transfer Premium network at Afternic, so your name will get less exposure.
Like most things in domain investing, I think that periodically reconsidering prices makes sense. As
@biggie said above if some time has passed and you got no inquiries at all, maybe consider either if the name is worth holding or if your pricing is wrong.
Finally, in some types of names other factors, like search and advertiser stats, number of visits, etc. can be considered. But they won't apply, for example, to a made-up brandable term. Also remember that the validity of the automated estimates will vary with the type of name.
Let me finally add that while I think your approach of using GD GoValue and subtracting some percentage will get some pricing very wrong, millions of people do consult GoValue every day, and it is true that if you can sell below that, it probably helps some sales close.
Welcome to NamePros, and best wishes for success in domain investing.
Bob