discuss To those who say don't rely on Appraisal Bot tools...

cixxy · Oct 25, 2018

I keep seeing these people who don't trust the AI or code of appraisal tools... but you know, machines are getting smarter and smarter and even now I believe it's wrong to say ignore the estibot or godaddy appraisal values.

So please prove me wrong and come up with some names here that are around $2000 GoDaddy appraisal bot value and are not taken. Feel free to share them publicly as well and see how fast your names will be gone.

I personally have come up with some as well, but I'd rather not share as they have some potential

Now I know that sometimes it will be very off for made-up names (because obviously that has a human element to it) and names maybe some names that are very long, but the algorithms there is pretty good and I'd say it's around a 80-90%+ accuracy.

It seems to take into account:

Domain length
Domain Sales / popularity for the particular keywords
Search volume
Some append to the domain name seems to be accurate, like Host.com is more than $25,000 but if you make it Hhost it's ~$4000 and Hostt is $4198

It really makes it easy at a glance to see the value, so in Expired Domains I see a lot of people using the valuation as a basis on the bid. Usually the ones with higher valuation gets more popular & more bids.

So please prove me wrong or feel free to add anything to my analysis. Cheers.

davidc1 · Nov 1, 2018

using godaddy auction list
godaddy appraisal above 2000 is 0,21% of the total domains
godaddy appraisal above 2500 is 0,07% of the total domains

cixxy · Nov 1, 2018

Kate said:
You are confusing demand with speculation.
As of today .com has 138,121,514 registrations. That is an enormous number.
So obviously almost every combination is taken, plenty of long domains, multiple keywords, mix of digits & letters, lots of stuff that don't make sense.
But how many of those domains have value and will ever sell ?

On a side note, why should we even pay attention to automated appraisals whose algorithm is unknown. A black box telling you a number, but not how it derived the calculation and what criteria/factors were used for computing value. You can't reproduce the same results independently. Just blindly relying on a third party that is not even human.
But what are the odds of a sale, I think that is a better question that what is the appraised value. Each source will provide vastly different estimates.

I already said it here many times, but your dino brain isn't getting it.

Supply & Demand.

More popular / rare a keyword or keyword combo == more valuation == more visibility == higher chance of selling.

For example, if you owned
healthyliving.com

Estimated Value: $21,605 (USD)

You can sell this to anyone you want for $2,000, any monkey or even poor person will buy it and flip it for more very easily, chance of selling for $2,000 is very high and also more people will try the popular keyword combo so there is more visibility.

The chance of selling it for the auto-appraised value at $21k is lower, but still achievable.

Therefore you are increasing the chance of your sell rate for higher valued domains.

The GD valuation is highly accurate for keyword domains above $2k.

Compare it to
dinoliving.com

Estimated Value: $1,155 (USD)

We're not in the Jurassic era anymore, so it's less desired and less people will either want it, stumble across it, search it, so the chance of selling is naturally lower. And what do you know? Only $1,155 valuation.

(But I think GD appraisals around 1000-1500 are usually B.S. because they aren't worth that most of the time)

On a side note, why should we even pay attention to automated appraisals whose algorithm is unknown.

Why you should pay attention? It lets you judge how rare a domain is from a glance, saving you a lot of research time and letting you compare easy. There's lots of other pros but your dino brain wont get it so I wont waste my time explaining.

Recons.Com · Nov 1, 2018

If there were an appraisal bot for a brain size or capacity based on postings, my bet is Kate's result would be multiple of cixxy's

wormfood · Nov 1, 2018

industrialcontrolsolutions.com 1,988 USD 2018-10-30 BuyDomains
industrialcontrolsolutions.com

Estimated Value: $1,064
esportsguide.com 7,986 USD 2018-10-24 Sedo
esportsguide.com

Estimated Value: $1,871

I sold this one a couple months ago at afternic, but godaddy says 1274, so it actually sucks.

here are some available ones
servicesenergy.com

Estimated Value: $2,195
careermortgage.com

Estimated Value: $2,092
deliveryproperty.com

Estimated Value: $1,704
toursprivate.com

Estimated Value: $1,848
deliverymortgage.com

Estimated Value: $1,768
deliveryinvestment.com

Estimated Value: $1,751
airwaysbritish.com

Estimated Value: $1,728

cixxy · Nov 1, 2018

wormfood said:
industrialcontrolsolutions.com 1,988 USD 2018-10-30 BuyDomains
industrialcontrolsolutions.com

Estimated Value: $1,064
esportsguide.com 7,986 USD 2018-10-24 Sedo
esportsguide.com

Estimated Value: $1,871

I sold this one a couple months ago at afternic, but godaddy says 1274, so it actually sucks.
Show attachment 101462

here are some available ones
servicesenergy.com

Estimated Value: $2,195
careermortgage.com

Estimated Value: $2,092
deliveryproperty.com

Estimated Value: $1,704
toursprivate.com

Estimated Value: $1,848
deliverymortgage.com

Estimated Value: $1,768
deliveryinvestment.com

Estimated Value: $1,751
airwaysbritish.com

Estimated Value: $1,728

Great job on those and thanks for a legit try on my challenge.

I like ServicesEnergy but not really.

Guess if you reverse the words it's

energyservices.com

Estimated Value: $9,981 (USD)

:P

Grats on the Utah Sign sell. I think signage isn't that high value of an industry with everything going digital.

Jv1999 · Nov 4, 2018

Recons.Com said:
If there were an appraisal bot for a brain size or capacity based on postings, my bet is Kate's result would be multiple of cixxy's

that's not cool dude. Don't insult people who are simply trying to bring another unbiased perspective into the domaining world.

It's not like she wrote a nerdy manifesto full of biased and unsupported opinions. She brought to the table her experience, with data, on appraisal bots.

Everyone who opposed her simply flamed with over-reaching opinions that are unbacked by any kind of data.

cixxy · Nov 4, 2018

Jv1999 said:
that's not cool dude. Don't insult people who are simply trying to bring another unbiased perspective into the domaining world.

It's not like she wrote a nerdy manifesto full of biased and unsupported opinions. She brought to the table her experience, with data, on appraisal bots.

Everyone who opposed her simply flamed with over-reaching opinions that are unbacked by any kind of data.

I took it more as a joke... but thanks

frank-germany · Nov 11, 2018

Kate said:
You are confusing demand with speculation.
As of today .com has 138,121,514 registrations. That is an enormous number.
So obviously almost every combination is taken, plenty of long domains, multiple keywords, mix of digits & letters, lots of stuff that don't make sense.
But how many of those domains have value and will ever sell ?

On a side note, why should we even pay attention to automated appraisals whose algorithm is unknown. A black box telling you a number, but not how it derived the calculation and what criteria/factors were used for computing value. You can't reproduce the same results independently. Just blindly relying on a third party that is not even human.
But what are the odds of a sale, I think that is a better question that what is the appraised value. Each source will provide vastly different estimates.

godday says it's based on past sales

frank-germany · Nov 11, 2018

wormfood said:
industrialcontrolsolutions.com 1,988 USD 2018-10-30 BuyDomains
industrialcontrolsolutions.com

Estimated Value: $1,064
esportsguide.com 7,986 USD 2018-10-24 Sedo
esportsguide.com

Estimated Value: $1,871

I sold this one a couple months ago at afternic, but godaddy says 1274, so it actually sucks.
Show attachment 101462

here are some available ones
servicesenergy.com

Estimated Value: $2,195
careermortgage.com

Estimated Value: $2,092
deliveryproperty.com

Estimated Value: $1,704
toursprivate.com

Estimated Value: $1,848
deliverymortgage.com

Estimated Value: $1,768
deliveryinvestment.com

Estimated Value: $1,751
airwaysbritish.com

Estimated Value: $1,728

so they obviously don't make much of a difference between

keyword1keyword2.com
and
keyword2keyword1.com

wormfood · Nov 11, 2018

frank-germany said:
godday says it's based on past sales

found this a while back but didn't think to post it here. I guess it was taken down, but it's in archive.org.
https://web.archive.org/web/2017051...om/using-deep-learning-domain-name-valuation/

To measure how well the new GoDaddy Valuation works, we asked four industry experts to predict the sale prices for 1,000 Afternic sales from late 2015. These sales were hidden from the model during training.

Measured by mean error, the new GoDaddy model is 1.3x better than the best of the four human experts, 1.5x better than Estibot, and 1.6x better than the average of all four human experts.

1.5x better than estibot

I wonder who the experts were.

https://venturebeat.com/2018/04/20/godaddy-wants-to-help-small-businesses-compete-using-ai/

The first project in that vein is a system the company claims can value internet domain names better than a human can. It uses new advancements in artificial neural networks to achieve superhuman results, with the goal of creating a valuation metric for domain names that works much as Zillow’s Zestimate works for homes.

“You have this domain valuation industry, which is dominated by a small number of experts who know a lot about how to value domains and have these really large portfolios,” Ansel said. “And it’s also an industry where there’s a huge variation in prices. People don’t really know what domains are worth. And so there’s a lot of people who either pay too much or pay too little.”

GoDaddy tested its system against a group of human experts using a random sample of domain names and their sale prices. The algorithm was more than 20 percent better than the human expert, judged on root mean square error.

"People don’t really know what domains are worth."

so let's have a bot spit out a number and call it good, because it happened to guess some past sales prices better than a few "experts."

Kate · Nov 11, 2018

lock · Nov 20, 2018

I have some bot appraisals of 10k so just need to find a bot believer to sell it to.
Bot believers register here.

winnify · Nov 20, 2018

I have cheapmedicalsupply.com that was valued at 1k dollars by the GD appraisal bot. Worth it?

frank-germany · Nov 20, 2018

winnify said:
I have cheapmedicalsupply.com that was valued at 1k dollars by the GD appraisal bot. Worth it?

you can absolutely trust the GD bot

if its below $2K -->
it's most likely worth : nothing

winnify · Nov 20, 2018

frank-germany said:
you can absolutely trust the GD bot

if its below $2K -->
it's most likely worth : nothing

Yikes.

bee · Nov 28, 2018

It's an interesting question

NickB · Nov 28, 2018

few below.available ------ went for a pharma theme

Happy hunting.......

spacepharmaceutical.com

Estimated Value: $1,711 (USD)

tradepharmaceutical.com

Estimated Value: $1,754 (USD)

salespharmaceutical.com

Estimated Value: $1,774 (USD)

coinpharmaceutical.com

Estimated Value: $1,829 (USD)

machinepharmaceutical.com

Estimated Value: $1,837 (USD)

cardpharmaceutical.com

Estimated Value: $1,839 (USD)

drugpharmaceutical.com

Estimated Value: $1,971 (USD)

pharmapharmaceutical.com

Estimated Value: $2,181 (USD)

pharmaceuticalpharma.com

Estimated Value: $2,193 (USD)

viniproject09 · Nov 28, 2018

Lol Dino brain

it made me laugh

cixxy said:
I already said it here many times, but your dino brain isn't getting it.

Supply & Demand.

More popular / rare a keyword or keyword combo == more valuation == more visibility == higher chance of selling.

For example, if you owned
healthyliving.com

Estimated Value: $21,605 (USD)

You can sell this to anyone you want for $2,000, any monkey or even poor person will buy it and flip it for more very easily, chance of selling for $2,000 is very high and also more people will try the popular keyword combo so there is more visibility.

The chance of selling it for the auto-appraised value at $21k is lower, but still achievable.

Therefore you are increasing the chance of your sell rate for higher valued domains.

The GD valuation is highly accurate for keyword domains above $2k.

Compare it to
dinoliving.com

Estimated Value: $1,155 (USD)

We're not in the Jurassic era anymore, so it's less desired and less people will either want it, stumble across it, search it, so the chance of selling is naturally lower. And what do you know? Only $1,155 valuation.

(But I think GD appraisals around 1000-1500 are usually B.S. because they aren't worth that most of the time)

Why you should pay attention? It lets you judge how rare a domain is from a glance, saving you a lot of research time and letting you compare easy. There's lots of other pros but your dino brain wont get it so I wont waste my time explaining.

sircc · Nov 28, 2018

winnify said:
I have cheapmedicalsupply.com that was valued at 1k dollars by the GD appraisal bot. Worth it?

Many things wrong with this domain.

Now, if you had medicalsupplies.com...

discuss To those who say don't rely on Appraisal Bot tools...

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