@NamesMax I'll try
it's not that easy to communicate even though it's technically not that complicated. Did anyone follow my calculations?
OK I'm assuming that an average non-4L has a 2.5% chance of selling over the course of a year. This is just an assumption. Who knows how far off it is.
Now, since it has a 2.5% chance of selling over the course of one year, it will have a 12.5% chance of selling over 5 years. (Again I understand that this is not an exact science at all, but for the sake of assumption we will say that 2.5% chance remains constant over time.)
Just take the 2.5% chance of selling in 1 year and multiply it by 5 years in order to see the odds that it sells over a 5 year period. This equals 12.5%.
The math for the 4L assumptions works the same. Assume a 5% chance of selling in 1 year and multiply by 5 years. It equals a 25% chance that the 4L sells over a 5 year period.
Well, we are talking about the future here, so we have to estimate chance in order to estimate ROI.
What I meant by that is basically that this is an imperfect calculation, because it does not take into account everything that a more complete model would account for, such as estimated liquidation value of each domain at the end of 5 years.