Chinese LLLL.com bubble!?

i just see this:
Quote: "My opinion is: ignore the location"
Sorry to say but most larger companies on the Shanghai stock exchange start with the city name.
So the change that they use it in there website as start is higher to my opinion
a nice link is: http://english.sse.com.cn/listed/list/#
which has a short name and website name of the companies given.

domeen said:

Don`t get me wrong, I don´t belive they will fall under $1000, that would be a miracle. But $1500 range the prices could stay.

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The miracle is the current price of these $20 digital rocks people were throwing away a year ago.

It's odd to watch, but I think somewhere in the hearts of logic and reason we all know these will go back to being pretty affordable for the average domainer.

4L.com's are exactly Bitcoin - there is no way around it - and here is what the fall from grace will look like.



It's maddening to watch a group of above intelligent people like 99% of the people here watch a digital asset, that is being used as a flight to financial security, get hyper-inflated above it's value... and then expect something else.

BTC fell because confidence was down, and people started questioning their investments not seeing the returns they expected. Criminal enterprises were being uncovered, and merchant adoption was decreasing.

4L.COM will continue to decline over now shaky confidence, multi-billion dollar criminal enterprise goes down, end users not adopting the 4L.com as an affordable end user solution at expected prices.

I am unapologetic in my POV on this. Go read the BTC archives, this song was sung years ago. It might have a different beat, but it's the same song.

Buy domains based on end user appeal for China and USA - you might not be as liquid, but you might sell single assets at higher prices than at a perceived moving average.

Federer said:

I can see a rebound within the next few weeks, but may not be a soon as many hope. They seem to be tanking the market to (scare investors/shake the trees for more supply and) buy on the low.

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Sometimes a duck is a duck - yes I like metaphors. For all those holding expensively bought 4L's I hope otherwise.

NPer said:

Are you referring to the 4.cn prices? Those tend to be lower than Godaddy/etc/etc.

Godaddy and Sedo prices seem fine to me, i.e. > $2000

gdgn.com $3,999.00 11/25/2015 GoDaddy
bgqh.com $1,846.85 11/25/2015 4.cn
bhnq.com $1,846.69 11/25/2015 4.cn
dqxt.com $2,034.66 11/25/2015 4.cn
jlwd.com $2,003.36 11/25/2015 4.cn
qfhs.com $1,846.85 11/25/2015 4.cn
lnwj.com $2,034.82 11/25/2015 4.cn
yqsk.com $1,909.45 11/25/2015 4.cn
rtnr.com $2,250.00 11/25/2015 Sedo

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Just a hypothetical....Could many western investors that typically use GD just not gotten 'the memo' yet that the Chinese have?

you can empirically try with Google translator addind one or two letters. I have been digging a bit trying different combinations from english to chines. I noticed also that the spelled phrases I am making it up "yanyouin" are registered in com on top that making it up again YYN. Anyway I noticed also that 5L often are needed instead of four while other times a letter more doesn t look to change the meaning in translator, but in effect is redundant. I noticed as well that a lot of 5L are registered for good meanings. Is on the other side possible to find good meanings as the number is so high...

DomainVP said:

Just a hypothetical....Could many western investors that typically use GD just not gotten 'the memo' yet that the Chinese have?

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Or GD has a larger pool of domain investors? 4.cn is the "largest domain marketplace in China" but last time I checked, you can only add funds via a Chinese bank. Withdrawing funds from 4.cn also requires paperwork to apply to take money out of China.

With the recent crackdown on underground banking in China, I think it got people scared and lay low for a while. People don't want to be associated with illegal activities by mistake.

Nov 25 - China announced a number of policies on Wednesday to encourage foreign trade and help exporters as the world's second-largest economy struggles with persistent weakness in demand at home and abroad.

China's exports and imports were down for the first 10 months of the year, with the picture for foreign trade "complicated and grim", according to a notice posted on the customs bureau's website.

The new policies include lowering various costs for importers and exporters, streamlining the clearance of goods at customs and gathering more accurate statistics at customs.

China has guided its currency, the yuan, into weaker territory against the dollar, but few believe Chinese exporters will be significantly helped by anything short of a drastic devaluation.

In fact, Beijing wants to move away from its dependence on low-end export manufacturing and move up the value chain into high-tech products and services.

Economic growth dipped to 6.9 percent in the third quarter, dropping below the 7 percent mark for the first time since the global financial crisis. T. Reuters

This is another key factor of renewed interest on domain names IMO

thetruman said:

you can empirically try with Google translator addind one or two letters. I have been digging a bit trying different combinations from english to chines. I noticed also that the spelled phrases I am making it up "yanyouin" are registered in com on top that making it up again YYN. Anyway I noticed also that 5L often are needed instead of four while other times a letter more doesn t look to change the meaning in translator, but in effect is redundant. I noticed as well that a lot of 5L are registered for good meanings. Is on the other side possible to find good meanings as the number is so high...

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sorry for the very messy post addressed to Ergo,; I wasn t able to edit on time!

I don't believe that the demand is decreasing but there is simply a LOT of supply right now. A lot of people who bought in at $300-1500 per chip are selling their domains, while the big Chinese buyers are not selling any.

Furthermore there is a lot of new inventory coming in through the whois spammers. I receive over 50 emails a day with lowball offers on my chips. I can imagine that a lot of random chip owners are taking the $500-$1500 offers, considering the resale value of these a couple years ago. I can imagine that many won't know what's going on with the market and would consider these offers enduser prices. More & more supply is coming in, so of course prices are downhill for a while.

Over the past few days there have been 40-50 chips auctioned daily, about 20 on the western platforms and 20-30 on the Chinese auction sites (that I know off..). That has been at least $100k-$150k a day in volume.

Once the supply dries up again, prices will climb. I'm sitting this one out.

Chinese is complex. BJ can be Beijing, also can be tens of different meaning by combinations. Such BaoJian which means healthcare. Also Baijin, which means Platinum. And more....

Is there anything like http://acronyms.thefreedictionary.com/ for Chinese language? ))))

In China, people use Chinese characters, not letters. So i don't think there is acronyms for Chinese language.

DomainVP said:

It's odd to watch, but I think somewhere in the hearts of logic and reason we all know these will go back to being pretty affordable for the average domainer.

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nice to see someone with their feet on the ground.

a bubble is really a wonder to behold but everyone can be sure that it will end on a blood bath.

if you have been around for sometime, had other businesses or simply read the history of boom and bust cycles this is a no brainer. don't be caught in the hype. look at the exponential increase in prices, the duration of the increase, and the investors talk. no one is looking at the risk, only to a linear and sure profit.

careful though, this is not a problem with LLLL.com, it's a broad market problem. LLLL.com has an additional issue because it is on the low end of the short domain segment and only had it's share of the bubble this past year so prices are low on an absolute basis and prone to get close to reg fee again when the market washes out.

it is hard to see now with all the euphoria that the market is close to change its course but it will.

if you are someone looking for fundamental reasons consider the global deflation that we have entered. the party will not last forever...

leogao99 said:

In China, people use Chinese characters, not letters. So i don't think there is acronyms for Chinese language.

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I meant in Pinyin.

..... and Apple stock will fall to a reasonable $10/share.

We are seeing a market expansion. It is sudden, and has aspects of a bubble, but ultimately the rules have changed and China now needs lots and lots of domains.

Don't get me wrong, I can't imagine how someone could profit on a buy-out of LLLL.link CHIPs. But the landscape has shifted and "premium" is a lot wider.

In Chinese, there many 4 character idoms, ChengYu (成语), that had well understood history and meaning. Here is a website that has 30,000 of them in PinYin and explaination:

http://www.chinese-tools.com/chinese/chengyu/dictionary/all.html

There is no doubt,LLLL.COM is bubble.The price is rise too fast this year.

winst said:

In Chinese, there many 4 character idoms, ChengYu (成语), that had well understood history and meaning. Here is a website that has 30,000 of them in PinYin and explaination:

http://www.chinese-tools.com/chinese/chengyu/dictionary/all.html

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What are the differences between Google translate and the site advised by you?

Just saw on Sedo's twitter post

interesting

BMS said:

Just saw on Sedo's twitter post

Show attachment 19874

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Thanks for sharing this. speaks to what we are seeing on the ground here.

pablohc86 said:

What are the differences between Google translate and the site advised by you?

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You can't always start with Chinese phrase and expect it translate to English and not lose meaning or context. What you get is the the equivalent of 70's Kung-Fu movies with bad dubbing.

What I'm suggesting is to start with popular Chinese idioms and find the PinYin that may match your LLLL name.

accent said:

..... and Apple stock will fall to a reasonable $10/share.

We are seeing a market expansion. It is sudden, and has aspects of a bubble, but ultimately the rules have changed and China now needs lots and lots of domains.

Don't get me wrong, I can't imagine how someone could profit on a buy-out of LLLL.link CHIPs. But the landscape has shifted and "premium" is a lot wider.

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actually that was what exactly happened to Apple stock and many others of the dot-com hype, after the dot-com hype...

what you and we all do is extrapolate linearly because it is that way our mind is wired and that is our experience on the very long run. however, we need to put things in perspective.

not every bet will win, that is, not every short domain will make money, much less if we keep expanding what is a short domain. is a LLLLL.com a short domain with a 12 million combos? i don't think so. at least not for now and not for awhile.

we need also to consider buyer's base expansion, that is, users online and domainers. this base has expanded greatly, but the most increase came from the domainer's base. this is not sound fundamentals. this is indication of euphoria. we will need to have an over run on the user's base or a continuous increase in the domainer's base.

users will not step into this wagon on current prices. domainers ARE making the market, mostly from China. and at this phase, over the last two years, we can see a growth in the domainer's base and commitment of money. two things that are not elastic. at some point it will reverse and will reverse hard. when/where is that point? well, we can get an hint looking into the price curve and market sentiment. and they are both exploding on top of a run of 6 years.

of course it is not reasonable to foresee LL.com get to low 5 figures again. corrections after bubbles tend to retrace at least 70%-90% of a market, but price of LL.com had gone up over the last 20 years so they have gotten a base to support them into higher levels. that does not happen with LLLL.com, neither NNNNN.com neither any combo of a bigger dimension. not even LLL.com has got to a price level that can sustain it's value above high 4 figures in face of a major recession...

there is no rocket science into this. the problem is we think linearly and we are on a situation that is exponential. what now seems impossible can soon be very real.

another very important point that we need not to forget is that we can safely assume that the domainer's base and user's base will increase over the long run (there are many more people in the world to come the internet, and more domainers to enter the market) but *market conditions* can change drastically, mainly, the price of money.

we have several indications that we are on a global deflation. the only (important) thing that is keeping the status quo is the stock and bond market which tend to spread the wealth effect onto other markets (domains including). if we do not have inflation and an expanding environment then prices can be kept lower for many years. by lower I mean, much lower than current prices. this may seem unreasonable to think at the moment because we can only think that domains will go up in value. but that is our *current* view of things, deformed by an extended period of strong gains and our linear reasoning.

Very reasonable post, however, I have to disagree. Domains are very limited assets. They enable you top place on Internet, global presence, prestige etc. I am talking about .coms, especially LLL.coms and such. Businesses go online, we are almost at point when an average business owner will realize it is more important to have good domain than an office in prestige location. There is only one best extension and it is the .com! Why LLL.com would not be worth at least as half price of average business office in Chicago? This is just one of pros for domain value. If we include "commodity thing" then an average LLL.com is still way below fair price.
The question is when and if the market will recognize this. Till then, we can discuss if these prices form a bubble or they are fair.

Hey guys,

Check out today's CHIP sales on LLLLSales.com

cwlm.com $2,818.00 11/28/2015 DropCatch
zqwh.com $2,376.00 11/28/2015 GoDaddy
ycyy.com $5,106.00 11/28/2015 GoDaddy
chyk.com $2,226.00 11/28/2015 GoDaddy
jjwp.com $2,150.00 11/28/2015 Flippa

I see some positive signs here. Hope the trend continues

Regards,
Vicky

vickyhunter said:

Hey guys,

Check out today's CHIP sales on LLLLSales.com

cwlm.com $2,818.00 11/28/2015 DropCatch
zqwh.com $2,376.00 11/28/2015 GoDaddy
ycyy.com $5,106.00 11/28/2015 GoDaddy
chyk.com $2,226.00 11/28/2015 GoDaddy
jjwp.com $2,150.00 11/28/2015 Flippa

I see some positive signs here. Hope the trend continues

Regards,
Vicky

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I wonder who buyers are. china domainers, china endusers, non china domainers.. I guess non china endusers are bit unlikely.

good numbers. a bit too good. which is why they can't last.