This train has probably left. Domaining... as in starting right now from scratch.

[twiki]

I think it's too late for someone to start domaining these days.

( Yeah, I know a few might eventually succeed - but that'll be quite rare, I think. )

I mean, what are the odds now for someone who has no skills but just the will to try it?

I started domaining just a few years ago. But then, it was still the real bonanza. Whatever you had, it sold. Price high, price low, nevertheless it sold. That's how I made it into profit in my third year, gradually improving.

Auctions were cheap, domains were cheaper, drops were full of juice. Closeouts, good stuff still falling through the net for us to grab.

Not anymore. 2022 came and passed.

Everything is overpriced now, people probably holding stuff waiting for better times OR for future plans, who knows. And yeah it's clear that you can't make a living when buying domains retail price from the market. You might recoup the monies in a few years, who knows, but it's too risky. And you'll have the money locked in it. And unless you have the $ to buy few high-value names, you are going to also burn money in renewals.

Don't get me wrong - I'm not complaining. This isn't about me. I'm alright, and at least in portfolio quality I'm definitely seeing betterment. And yeah, it's also not about the top investors who are still rolling cash although the numbers have diminished a little lately.

It's about someone new, willing to take the plunge and start today. I really don't see it to happen. The sales squeeze means that growing portfolio in the first place from $500 and some beginners luck ain't going to work anymore.

You need a serious budget to start with. And some itch to see it all spent soon...? And you need to make that budget triple at least; as for the next few years you're going to burn through it like there's no tomorrow. And after those years, maybe then, you're going to finally see the end of the tunnel that is the current market and if you have improved enough, then maybe, just maybe you'll see some return on all this hard work, money spent and risk taken.

I look at these guys and dunno if I should encourage them or tell them what they are getting into, and what are the odds.

Your thoughts?

 

[twiki]

We are in a rough patch (those happen- what goes up must come down) nothing more nothing less.

Over analyzing is not going to change anything unless the goal is to stop people from entering this business.

Has the cost of domaining gone up year after year? Of course just like everything else we pay for. There is no business or hobby that is free either. A person needs money to get in this niche and stay in it. Hopefully from sales but if not they should only spend what won’t break the bank.

I get the general point that what you could get for say $500 previously has shrunk. I remember when GD auctions ended under $30 alot of the time.

When times change you make adjustments to those changes and move forward. Being wistful about what was is not constructive. Reducing portfolios and prices is. You have to roll with the market.

My personal opinion is no one should enter this business who does not have the money to cover holding a portfolio WITHOUT SALES and who is impatient as they will be very dejected down the road.

If that sounds doom and gloom to some sorry. To me its just the facts.

I agree. But, since posting this, there are new things unfolding and it ain't for the better.

This new bank's failure saga (especially SVB) is going to throw a big wrench into the whole thing. TBH, it's an event we all should have been seeing from afar (some did, not everyone). I saw it coming but 2022 and 2023 are still taking me by surprise - had hoped it's not happening that soon.

This, if it continues to progress, will separate those highly liquid and / or having a good margin from everyone else.

2023 right now doesn't look good (and this time I'm not talking just about beginners ). Hopefully I'm wrong, you never know.

 

[Mkt Sales Leads]

I agree. But, since posting this, there are new things unfolding and it ain't for the better.

This new bank's failure saga (especially SVB) is going to throw a big wrench into the whole thing. TBH, it's an event we all should have been seeing from afar (some did, not everyone). I saw it coming but 2022 and 2023 are still taking me by surprise - had hoped it's not happening that soon.

This, if it continues to progress, will separate those highly liquid and / or having a good margin from everyone else.

2023 right now doesn't look good (and this time I'm not talking just about beginners ). Hopefully I'm wrong, you never know.

Even if things stay rock bottom for the next 2-3 years, all it will mean is lots of names being dropped due to those who couldn't afford to keep holding and renewing without sales.

 

[twiki]

Even if things stay rock bottom for the next 2-3 years, all it will mean is lots of names being dropped due to those who couldn't afford to keep holding and renewing without sales.

I also expect this BUT it's not going to be a lot of good names available for cheap grabs.

Big investors are still very liquid and they gonna scoop up the best.

Edit: Mostly crappy domains, gonna be those which will eventually flood the market. Pros know better. So I don't foresee a big uptick in great names available for grabs.

 

[blogspotter]

I also expect this BUT it's not going to be a lot of good names available for cheap grabs.

Big investors are still very liquid and they gonna scoop up the best.

Edit: Mostly crappy domains, gonna be those which will eventually flood the market. Pros know better. So I don't foresee a big uptick in great names available for grabs

For the past 13-14 months, I have been hearing that we will get good names for cheap but the reality is just the opposite.. Either too many new domainers with salary or old domainers making a lot of money, because wholesale market is as hot as ever..

One need to be a Math wizard to do well

 

[twiki]

For the past 13-14 months, I have been hearing that we will get good names for cheap but the reality is just the opposite.. Either too many new domainers with salary or old domainers making a lot of money, because wholesale market is as hot as ever..

One need to be a Math wizard to do well

Exactly. It didn't happen.

I think people are investing for better times. Those who know their craft in this industry, for sure.

Edit: And enough people still sitting on cash as well...

There might be an increase in stuff dropping but not what we'd like to get.

 

[DomainNature]

I agree that for most of you the train have left, however for me the ship is standing still.

 

[ontiscal]

The domain market is big enough for new players but competition increases year by year.

Today it is more difficult and expensive to acquire a domain. It is more difficult to sell it or make money from parking. Moreover, sales have decreased. In short, it does not seem the right time to start being a domainer.

 

[Registry Services]

I think it's too late for someone to start domaining these days.

I mostly agree - COM is over 150M names, you'd think everything worth having must have gone by now

Then the other day I managed to hand-reg one of my github projects as both COM & NET -> `pyrar` - I know it's not a ridiculously good name, but its short & looks vaguely like a word

 

[Gary Scot]

I still believe there's room for us newbies.. I'm relatively new to domaining, (around 2.5 years) and I've only really just started to properly get to grips with it after much research, completing the DN Academy course, and yep making plenty of mistakes along the way.

Even in that short time though, I have definitely noticed a rise in auction prices, a lack of good quality closeouts, and drops are harder to catch.
I'd say the biggest thing I've learnt so far is patience. If you're expecting quick returns, forget it. I've had a couple of fairly quick sales so far but I know that's pretty rare.

I still believe if you stick with it, don't give up, and keep trying different methods you will eventually succeed. It just takes time and lots of patience.

 

[twiki]

I still believe there's room for us newbies.. I'm relatively new to domaining, (around 2.5 years) and I've only really just started to properly get to grips with it after much research, completing the DN Academy course, and yep making plenty of mistakes along the way.

Even in that short time though, I have definitely noticed a rise in auction prices, a lack of good quality closeouts, and drops are harder to catch.
I'd say the biggest thing I've learnt so far is patience. If you're expecting quick returns, forget it. I've had a couple of fairly quick sales so far but I know that's pretty rare.

I still believe if you stick with it, don't give up, and keep trying different methods you will eventually succeed. It just takes time and lots of patience.

There is always room in any industry for the new one with just a bit of talent at it, persistence and drive (and some money).

It's just that the odds have become smaller, going to nil - for those without all the above.

Edit: 2.5 years ago puts you at the beginning of 2021, which was a great year to start in.

 

[Recons.Com]

For the past 13-14 months, I have been hearing that we will get good names for cheap but the reality is just the opposite.. Either too many new domainers with salary or old domainers making a lot of money, because wholesale market is as hot as ever..

One need to be a Math wizard to do well

The quality of drops and closeouts will slightly improve, but the really good ones that anyone can easily identify either by eye test or by simple indicators like extensions registered and under use, those will become more competitive.

There are two reasons for it:

- holding costs are lower (fewer more expensive names for higher prices with the same budget = less liability with renewal costs and admin), thus they are more attractive to those that have budget to buy but are risk-averse to hold anything that requires a lot in annual financial commitment.

- the supply is getting thinner. All those names are part of a limited original pool that was probably all already taken 10-30 years ago. There are less and less unused ones from those. You can see it in the example of 4L hitting the expired auctions at GD. Just few years ago there were hundreds of those at the same time, now it is in tens.

 

[Mkt Sales Leads]

The quality of drops and closeouts will slightly improve, but the really good ones that anyone can easily identify either by eye test or by simple indicators like extensions registered and under use, those will become more competitive.

There are two reasons for it:

- holding costs are lower (fewer more expensive names for higher prices with the same budget = less liability with renewal costs and admin), thus they are more attractive to those that have budget to buy but are risk-averse to hold anything that requires a lot in annual financial commitment.

- the supply is getting thinner. All those names are part of a limited original pool that was probably all already taken 10-30 years ago. There are less and less unused ones from those. You can see it in the example of 4L hitting the expired auctions at GD. Just few years ago there were hundreds of those at the same time, now it is in tens.

Every year there's talk of fewer good names available at affordable auction / aftermarket prices.

Looks like the day will come when almost everyone (except the cash-rich) returns to handregs.

 

[blogspotter]

The quality of drops and closeouts will slightly improve, but the really good ones that anyone can easily identify either by eye test or by simple indicators like extensions registered and under use, those will become more competitive.

There are two reasons for it:

- holding costs are lower (fewer more expensive names for higher prices with the same budget = less liability with renewal costs and admin), thus they are more attractive to those that have budget to buy but are risk-averse to hold anything that requires a lot in annual financial commitment.

- the supply is getting thinner. All those names are part of a limited original pool that was probably all already taken 10-30 years ago. There are less and less unused ones from those. You can see it in the example of 4L hitting the expired auctions at GD. Just few years ago there were hundreds of those at the same time, now it is in tens.

Wow.. even you mean there were more good names in the auctions? Not just cheaper but quantity and quality as well? Ever since I started I think I can count the number of CVCV in auctions on my fingers lol

 

[Recons.Com]

Wow.. even you mean there were more good names in the auctions? Not just cheaper but quantity and quality as well? Ever since I started I think I can count the number of CVCV in auctions on my fingers lol

CVCV is just a coveted and rare subset of 4L, so yes, you'd have way less of those before and even less now.

4L is a good indicator of supply, since they are not too rare or expensive like 3L, but still limited supply of under half a million. I have been buying those regularly since 2015 and their were considerably more available to bid on auctions then. The numbers have been dwindling on a steady basis since then. We can infer from that it must be applicable to other desirable and limited supply name categories. I assume it is due to certain percentage of those finding a business use every year. And buyers/users of those higher end names tend to have a higher chance of succeeding than your regular business endeavor, so the churn out will be little.

 

[Recons.Com]

Every year there's talk of fewer good names available at affordable auction / aftermarket prices.

Looks like the day will come when almost everyone (except the cash-rich) returns to handregs.

the process of reduction can be infinite... Think of 1/2+1/4+1/8+1/16...+1/2^n < 1.

Of course, the expansion of desirable subsets is possible. Maybe, people will start bidding wars over names like "TheNamePros.com", not just "NamePros.com" types.

But, generally, I think it will balance out. As few millions of very good .coms + few tens of millions of good .coms are sufficient for the global level of demand for years, if not centuries to come.

 

[twiki]

Medium quality names however will appear in the market more often, by the end of 2023. $2k range, medium chance of sale. The kind Dropcatch snaps at drop (quite a bunch of my dropped names are taken by DC lately...)

Anyway I'll be releasing some as well ... says math. Reducing stock / purchasing better names lately (don't ask how... I'd have to shoot ya).

Top names? Nay.

 

[twiki]

Every year there's talk of fewer good names available at affordable auction / aftermarket prices.

Looks like the day will come when almost everyone (except the cash-rich) returns to handregs.

You know, maybe your perspective has some merit, depending on the angle you look at it from.

Of course is an exaggeration right now... to me, to others here.

But for a newbie, dipping a toe into the market now?

With current drop / auction competition? It might indeed look like this. Last resort, handregs of course (... with the known caveats).

 

[blogspotter]

Medium quality names however will appear in the market more often, by the end of 2023. $2k range, medium chance of sale. The kind Dropcatch snaps at drop (quite a bunch of my dropped names are taken by DC lately...)

Anyway I'll be releasing some as well ... says math. Reducing stock / purchasing better names lately (don't ask how... I'd have to shoot ya).

Top names? Nay.

I am all for medium quality names, They are very profitable, but I don't seem to see them either.

Sometimes I see several good ones drop in one go and I don't hesitate to buy them up, but I don't see regular streams coming up.

I have bought several hundreds on a day if I see the opportunity,.. Maybe I will wait

CVCV is just a coveted and rare subset of 4L, so yes, you'd have way less of those before and even less now.

4L is a good indicator of supply, since they are not too rare or expensive like 4L, but still limited supply of under half a million. I have been buying those regularly since 2015 and their were considerably more available to bid on auctions then. The numbers have been dwindling on a steady basis since then. We can infer from that it must be applicable to other desirable and limited supply name categories. I assume it is due to certain percentage of those finding a business use every year. And buyers/users of those higher end names tend to have a higher chance of succeeding than your regular business endeavor, so the churn out will be little.

I agree it is a good indicator. I just didn't realise there were many available few years ago.

 

[UIunique]

As a beginner i can certainly say that there is lot of competion right now because i regaularly scan auctions names and there are few reasons that i think:
* Big investors become crazy or say they are selfish now as they want to catch each and every good name they see anywhere so leave no chance for people like me.
* Big money people have more resources to build ai tools and softwares to catch good names quickly.

 

[twiki]

I am all for medium quality names, They are very profitable, but I don't seem to see them either.

Sometimes I see several good ones drop in one go and I don't hesitate to buy them up, but I don't see regular streams coming up.

I have bought several hundreds on a day if I see the opportunity,.. Maybe I will wait

As someone who watches drops "religiously", I can confirm. ( Even though lately I'm becoming a disillusioned believer in them... for obvious reasons. )

But the last time I've seen such bulk good ones drop were not sooner than about one year ago.

I have been registering quite a bunch back then. Most likely drops from a specific portfolio being discarded. Those are now keepers, auto-renew.

Otherwise? Nah, doesn't happen - that rare.

 

[Edukar]

Friends, many of you already know that I have hand-registered most of my domains . This does not mean that they are all bad, since for each domain sold I received at least $2000 net profit. I have a question for old-timers, on what principle domains get into DropCatch. Many of the domains I registered had a good history, but when they were expired, they didn't hit the DC auction. And I easily registered them for $7-10

 

[twiki]

Friends, many of you already know that I have hand-registered most of my domains . This does not mean that they are all bad, since for each domain sold I received at least $2000 net profit. I have a question for old-timers, on what principle domains get into DropCatch. Many of the domains I registered had a good history, but when they were expired, they didn't hit the DC auction. And I easily registered them for $7-10

Somebody wants them enough to pay the fee.

Either some end user or investors. Probably the biggest number is taken by their (unspecified) partners.

 

[Edukar]

Sorry. You misunderstood me. I asked why some high-quality domains (not 4L!) do not enter the DC auction, but naturally expire. And some domains of average quality appear at DC and cause a stir. Maybe DropCatch works with certain registrars?

 

[blogspotter]

Sorry. You misunderstood me. I asked why some high-quality domains (not 4L!) do not enter the DC auction, but naturally expire. And some domains of average quality appear at DC and cause a stir. Maybe DropCatch works with certain registrars?

Npthing to do with DC working with registrar.

They didn't go to auction because nobody else thought they were worth dropcatching.

What according to you is average maybe good to others, what you think quality might not be that good if they are dropped and not getting "Backordered". The domain need to backordered by domainers to be caught

 

[Edukar]

The domain need to backordered by domainers to be caught

The last sentence explains everything. But I find it impossible to make pre-orders for millions of domains.
And if there is a functioning website on the domain, hardly anyone will think that it will be ever time expired. Here is my last purchase, HutRent.com was dropped on February 19 2023 and was purchased by me for $9. This domain was first registered more than 20 years ago, has a good history, personally I consider it promising for sale in the region of $3000. And yet, it didn't make it to the auction. And there are tens of thousands of such domains. Therefore, there is always an opportunity for a novice domainer to become successful even in such a difficult time. I consider domaining an art. For me, a real domainer is a creator who registered a previously non-existent domain and breathed into life, made customers believe in this domain. How did it happen to PainQuell.com I came up with this name from scratch and registered the domain. Three years later, I sold it for $2,700 Now this site is working and brings benefits to people. And to buy at auction and then resell much more expensive is just speculation, not art.