This was an interesting piece...
Lot's of useful information...
Thanks for sharing...
I had not thought about it as precisely as this, but I think your model is really helpful @DomainRecap! In .com there are 135 million odd registrations, but maybe 20 million odd names for sale of which maybe 5 million should be for sale (some would argue this fraction). Anyway using your argument I would agree that in a typical new extension maybe 1% of that 5 million will be quality names holding potential value, something like 50,000 names per new TLD. The trick is to find those 50,000 best, great names and great matches across the dot, that carry reasonable renewal fees. And due to various reasons some TLDs will not be investment worthy at all, and others will be so specialized the ratio of desired names will be much smaller.
Thanks for your comments which are spot on. i think in many ways the new extension market is where legacy was in early days, significantly higher risk but also potentially higher rewards (I am not saying the biggest sales will be in new extensions, just that if you invest say $50 in a new domain domain extension today, and the same $50 in the best legacy you can find at that price, your odds of selling it are probably higher in legacy, but odds of a more significant return ratio if it does sell probably better in new. In an ideal world, new investors need a reasonable horizon, but renewal costs in many extensions make it hard for the numbers to work. Thanks again.
You make a good point that the opportunity window for new domain acquisitions is, somewhat, closing. Just as in conventional investment it is expected that higher reward is linked to higher risk, I see that in new extensions. Personally, I think one opportunity, but also a high risk one, is to get standard fee registrations shortly after a TLD launches, scooping up names that the registry have missed in their premium level, or if they offer inexpensive premium levels without premium renewal. The risk though is you really have little idea if that extension will become accepted. Another opportunity is to effectively catch expiring new extensions. @Grego85 and a few others are doing that effectively, but if you compare to the number of people doing it in legacy it is still largely untapped. Anyway, in short, I agree that if you wait until a TLD is well established with an aftermarket sales record, it is probably too late.
Thank you. That is my one main goal. I understand that an advocacy voice, where one pushes one side of an argument, is often more fun and engaging, and our industry certainly has a number who do that role well, but for me I have set my goal to try to present with the best current evidence and as balanced as possible. People should hold me to task when I fail that standard, since we all fail sometimes (ok well maybe not everyone but I do). Thank you for your kind comments.
I think one of the biggest unresolved (in my mind) questions is whether a single domainer should specialize in one or the other, or hold a mix. I respect those who hold only .com and those who choose to hold only new. I do see, however, an argument for holding a mix. Both for long term diversification, but also (if one has a domain website) in showing through your offerings that there can be a role in both for many businesses - they may want a .com for their main site but a number of new gTLD for marketing campaigns, for example.
Thanks for the comments, everyone. i hope that others will join the discussion.
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