IT.COM

data Domain Data: Which Four Letter .COM Pattern Is the Most Valuable?

NameSilo
Data can help us make more informed decisions about our domaining activity, including which domains to acquire and which to sell at a specific time. One of the leading investment categories over the past twelve months has been the four-letter Chinese Premium .COM. This category has seen a dramatic increase in value from around $300 this time last year to a record high of over $2,000 per name at the end of 2015.

These prices are for any four letter Chinese Premium .COM domain without a pattern. Those names that include patterns are typically more valuable. But which pattern is the most popular? To find out, we've teamed up with @Michael Sumner of NameBio to analyse the data from several different four-letter .COM categories.

We are going to analyse the sales data from the past twelve months of eight different categories of patterns to see which has proved to be the most popular, and which could be considered to be the most valuable:
  • AAAA (example: BBBB.com)
  • AABB (example: BBCC.com)
  • ABAB (example: BCBC.com)
  • ABBA (example: BCCB.com)
  • ABBB (example: BCCC.com)
  • AAAB (example: BBBC.com)
  • ABAA (example: BCBB.com)
  • AABA (example: BBCB.com)
This data is gathered from public data that is listed at NameBio, for all patterned four-letter .COM domains that also include the letters a,e,i,o,u or v. It's interesting to note that whilst NameBio have recorded 13,952 sales of four-letter .COMs within the last year, just 219 have one of the eight patterns mentioned above. This makes up just 1.6% of four-letter .COM sales.


AAAA

This pattern is extremely rare. With just 26 of these domain names available in the .COM extension, very few sales have ever been recorded. In fact, according to NameBio, only four public sales have occurred, with none taking place within the last year.

The domain vvvv.com sold for $22,100 in 2014. llll.com sold for $7,900 in 2008 and then again in 2012 for $8,505. The domain iiii.com was sold in 2004 at SnapNames for $1,500.


AABB

A total of 18 four-letter .COMs with the AABB pattern have been sold over the last year, for a total sales value of $132,832. This means an average sales price of $7,380. The highest sale within the last year was that of bboo.com for $18,400, which occurred at NameJet in November 2015. The lowest was vvtt.com for $2,600 in March 2016, again at NameJet.

This type of pattern seems to be one of the most valuable patterns of all, with investors worldwide buying into the rare "double double" pattern. Interestingly, out of 18 sales within the past year, 11 of the AABB patterned name sales occurred at NameJet.


ABAB

This pattern had 20 sales within the last year, with a total sales value of $115,268 and an average sales price of $5,763; around $1,600 less than the AABB pattern above. 70% of public sales within this category occurred at NameJet.

The highest sale was ieie.com, which sold for $11,000 at GoDaddy in September 2015. It's interesting to note that in both this category and the AABB category above, the highest sales both contained vowels - something we've been repeatedly told isn't desirable by a Chinese investor.


ABBA

Again, just 18 sales of ABBA patterned domains within the last year. The total sales value of this category is $79,281 with an average sales price of $4,405 per name. Both the total sales and average sales values of this category are down significantly, compared to AABB and ABAB.

The sale of toot.com for $31,805 at NameJet in January 2016 means the average price of this category is slightly distorted. Without taking this sale into consideration, the average sales price over the last year would be $2,792.

Aside from toot.com, the highest sales price was cnnc.com, which was sold at Sedo for $9,400. The lowest price was hvvh.com, which was sold at NameJet for $760 in May 2016.


ABBB

Moving on to the "treble" patterns, you'll start to see a difference in both price and quantity compared with the "double" patterns above. In total, there were 44 ABBB sales within the past year, with a total sales value of $160,801. This means an average sales price of $3,655 per name.

At $14,999, the domain rccc.com was the most expensive ABBB purchase of the last year, with lvvv.com being the cheapest at $1,060 - sold at Flippa. From the data available so far, it seems that the ABBB pattern has a higher frequency of sales with a lower overall value.


AAAB

Similarly, the AAAB pattern has a higher frequency of sales than any double pattern, with 37 sales in the last 12 months. The total value of these 37 sales was $123,719, which means an average price per sale of $3,344. Surprisingly, jjje.com at just $679 was the lowest sales price in this category, with lllr.com being the highest sale at $8,300.

There are a few repeat sales of note in this category, including fffe.com which sold for $1,750 at Sedo in September 2015 before being sold at NameJet two months later for $4,350. The domain rrru.com has been sold three times within the past twelve months, for prices between $1,495 and $2,900.


ABAA

As with the category above, ABAA had 37 sales in the past year, but the combined sales value was just $88,203 at an average sales price of $2,384 per domain. This average sales price is reduced thanks to 14 sales below $1,000, the lowest being vdvv.com, which sold for $270 at NameJet in April 2016.

The highest sale in this category was ezee.com, which was sold to an end user for $20,500. Removing this sale brings the average sales price of the category down to $1,880 per name.


AABA

The final category is the one with the lowest average sales price and the highest frequency of sales. In the past year, 45 AABA domains were sold, according to NameBio. The total sales value was $77,019 with an average sales price of $1,712 per name.

At just $138, llel.com is the lowest sales price of the category - a domain that sold at 4.CN in July of 2015. The highest price paid for an AABA domain was $5,000 for wwpw.com, which sold at NameJet in May 2016.


Conclusions

Of course, the most valuable pattern is AAAA; with just 26 of these domains available, any sale of this type of name is very rare. Aside from this category, AABB seems to be the most popular, with a fairly low amount of these names being sold and a high average sales price.

I'm surprised to see that "triple" patterns such as AAAB or AABA have a higher frequency of trading with a lower average sales price.

All four letter .COMs have risen in price somewhat during the past 12 months, but patterns continue to see a higher average price.

Thanks to Michael Sumner and NameBio for providing this data.


Bonus - The Data Table from NameBio

CategoryQuantityTotal Sales PriceAverage Price Per Name
AAAA4$40,005$10,001
AABB18$132,832$7,380
ABAB20$115,268$5,763
ABBA18$79,281$4,405
ABBB44$160,801$3,655
AAAB37$123,719$3,344
ABAA37$88,203$2,384
AABA45$77,019$1,712
[tr] [tr] [tr] [tr] [tr] [tr] [tr] [/tr][/tr][/tr][/tr][/tr][/tr][/tr]
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The views expressed on this page by users and staff are their own, not those of NamePros.
This is fantastic, now I want to know the next step. What combination of NNLL's will be the best? Disregarding AAAA, do the same uses apply?
 
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999 out of 1000 people reading this has none how about an article about what's next what's next what's next
 
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999 out of 1000 people reading this has none how about an article about what's next what's next what's next

My apologies. This is a well crafted thread, thanks Jame for posting. I noticed at the end, the quantities of lesser ranked patterns didn't decrease as one would expect. Instead it fluctuated and pointed to the pattern ABBB, with the most sales and most opportunity. Currently, the market seems to be volatile and overly competitive, there's talk of a bubble (not much), but I find it very difficult to acquire any of these patterns. I am relatively new to CHIPs and short 4L.com's, besides the obvious as you stated above regarding vowels (numbers it's 4 and 0, though if there was one of those patterns I don't think buying a domain with those two numbers would matter). Anyways, looking forward to more posts in the future.

Regards,
Danny
 
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If you have the next couple hours to spare you look at llllsales.com as they list sales under $100, thus giving you a larger data set. I'm tempted to do it myself, hah.
 
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people stereotypes.

Chinese people never really consider the meaning of the word, they simply categorize branding names into this that and that type, and force the market to give those garbage name, or great names a discrinimated price.

well, the market is blind at this moment. But great names will be great at last, garbage names will be worthless.

Pity is that some fools follow this irational trend and I am sure many of them will lose money

Same thing to VR, blablaVR, VRbla....come on, useless.....
 
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people stereotypes.

Chinese people never really consider the meaning of the word, they simply categorize branding names into this that and that type, and force the market to give those garbage name, or great names a discrinimated price.

well, the market is blind at this moment. But great names will be great at last, garbage names will be worthless.

Pity is that some fools follow this irational trend and I am sure many of them will lose money

Same thing to VR, blablaVR, VRbla....come on, useless.....

What's clear at the moment? For domain that have less competition and will be valuable in the near future? In your opinion...
 
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Things looking good for my AABB patterns in other extensions:) Thank you for the Article. Of all the threads I find the ones by James Iles the most interesting and informative. Thank you
 
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I noticed at the end, the quantities of lesser ranked patterns didn't decrease as one would expect.
There's an inverse relationship between desirability and sales volume in this business though. The lower ranked domains see more sales, that doesn't mean they are more in demand or there's more opportunity though.

An NNNNN.com would be ranked lower than an NN.com, but you'd expect to see way more 5N sales than 2N sales right? You'd expect to see way more KeywordKeyword.com sales than good Dictionary.com sales too. The same applies for the rankings within a category like 4L with patterns, the worse it is the higher the frequency of trading.

In the case of LLLL.com with patterns, there's only three ways you can spin a double-double (AABB, ABAB, and ABBA) but there are four ways you can spin a triple (AAAB, ABBB, AABA, ABAA). So that means a double-double is actually more rare than a triple, something that wasn't intuitive to me for some reason. More rare means lower frequency and higher average prices, which played out exactly in the data.

Nice write-up James, it was nice working with you on this. Looking forward to more to come.
 
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There's an inverse relationship between desirability and sales volume in this business though. The lower ranked domains see more sales, that doesn't mean they are more in demand or there's more opportunity though.

An NNNNN.com would be ranked lower than an NN.com, but you'd expect to see way more 5N sales than 2N sales right? You'd expect to see way more KeywordKeyword.com sales than good Dictionary.com sales too. The same applies for the rankings within a category like 4L with patterns, the worse it is the higher the frequency of trading.

In the case of LLLL.com with patterns, there's only three ways you can spin a double-double (AABB, ABAB, and ABBA) but there are four ways you can spin a triple (AAAB, ABBB, AABA, ABAA). So that means a double-double is actually more rare than a triple, something that wasn't intuitive to me for some reason. More rare means lower frequency and higher average prices, which played out exactly in the data.

Nice write-up James, it was nice working with you on this. Looking forward to more to come.

My assumption was the lower cost of investment with smaller profits would lead to increased sales volume. If you're on a budget and you know you can make a few hundred flipping one of the lower ranked and more common domains frequently, then why wouldn't you? Perhaps most didn't bother with them because they wanted to make a huge profit on one sale?
 
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My assumption was the lower cost of investment with smaller profits would lead to increased sales volume. If you're on a budget and you know you can make a few hundred flipping one of the lower ranked and more common domains frequently, then why wouldn't you? Perhaps most didn't bother with them because they wanted to make a huge profit on one sale?
The size of the pool of buyers doesn't affect the volume of sales much though, at least not for liquid domains. If there were suddenly twice as many domain investors in our industry would the number of LLLL.com selling each day double along with it?

Sure it would increase some because prices would be driven up due to greater competition, and then more people would be interested in selling and locking in some profits. But not proportional to the increase in the buyer pool, at least not in the near term. So I wouldn't say a bigger pool of potential buyers due to the lower price results in higher sales volume.

Think about where the inventory comes from, expired domains and sellers wanting to move inventory. The better a domain is the less likely it is to expire. The better a domain is, the more likely the owner is in a financial position to hold it and wait for an end user rather than wholesaling. So higher quality domains aren't even available to buy as often, thus the lower volume of sales despite being more sought-after.

If anything, I would say the accessibility/affordability of lower quality domains sort of keeps the gap tighter in terms of average prices. More people competing for the low tier acts as a floor, fewer people playing in the high end acts as a ceiling. I think that is why these pattern domains are 100x as rare as a random 4L but are only trading at 10x the price.
 
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there is a small detail in this kind of data analysis that is the temporal spread of the data. the pattern AAAB and BBBA had many trades being made in a short period when these domains were scooped for lower values when the market was going higher parabolic. but then failed do sell after the turn in December. so many were scooped in the $3k to $4,5k area but then failed to sale at the top at $7k-$8k.
 
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people stereotypes.

Chinese people never really consider the meaning of the word, they simply categorize branding names into this that and that type, and force the market to give those garbage name, or great names a discrinimated price.

well, the market is blind at this moment. But great names will be great at last, garbage names will be worthless.

Pity is that some fools follow this irational trend and I am sure many of them will lose money

Same thing to VR, blablaVR, VRbla....come on, useless.....
You just don't see the obvious, maybe if you didn't speak English you would have.
 
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Why are we still talking about CHIPs? They've been on the decline for 10 months. Seems like a waste of time and energy.
 
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Why are we still talking about CHIPs? They've been on the decline for 10 months. Seems like a waste of time and energy.
Didn't realize i was responding to an old thread, oh well my excuse, "it was 4 in da morn on a sat:).Anyways I agree in a way since aquiring 4l in com at current pricing is still a bit pricey and risky. That said patterns are more valuable in most cases imo though. The End:)
 
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Didn't realize i was responding to an old thread, oh well my excuse, "it was 4 in da morn on a sat:).Anyways I agree in a way since aquiring 4l in com at current pricing is still a bit pricey and risky. That said patterns are more valuable in most cases imo though. The End:)

Didn't realize this was old either lol. :D
 
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I don't remember reading this article back in June. It talks about my HVVH :)
 
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