When will the LLLL.coms start to drop?

MicroGuy · 11-28-2008, 03:53 PM

I've been closely monitoring dropping domains for several months. There has been a steady increase in quality domains dropping including many LLLL.nets that were selling for low $xx six months ago.

Does anyone think we'll start seeing low quality LLLL.coms dropping and becoming available for hand reg anytime soon?

dnb8 · 11-28-2008, 03:58 PM

I think that some of them should drop in January.

-REECE- · 11-28-2008, 03:59 PM

Prices actually are up slightly over October 2008 and drops are down considerably. Prices are nowhere near the peaks once attained, however the market seems reasonably stable overall.

I've heard of a few NPers catching LLLL.coms which hadn't gotten the minimum bid on Snap -- hasn't been happening much lately. At present, you'll have great difficulty finding a recently renewed LLLL.com much under $12. LLLL.coms near expiry can still be had for $5-$7.

With the "buyout domains" largely having been renewed (a large percentage were owned by a few large investors on Namepros), what's now coming on the drop scene is actually higher quality LLLL.coms and hence prices are actually rising -- both in real terms (appear to be up about $2 versus October) and because supply of bad LLLL.coms at low prices (remember: they've all had to have been renewed now) has been substantially reduced.
????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/short-domain-discussion/537728-when-will-llll-coms-start-drop.html

Originally Posted by MicroGuy

I've been closely monitoring dropping domains for several months. There has been a steady increase in name quality domains dropping including many LLLL.nets that were selling for low $xx six months ago.

Does anyone think we'll start seeing low quality LLLL.coms dropping anytime soon?

hullswingerscom · 11-28-2008, 04:02 PM

yes microguy ....but moSt will say no coz they have lots money invested in LLLL

AND XYRA IS Pronounceable

napa · 11-28-2008, 07:02 PM

Domain tasters will be getting those worthless ones first, keep your back order on if you really want one, they will be tasted - dropped -tasted...

MicroGuy · 11-28-2008, 07:11 PM

We should have a contest to see who will be the first to hand reg one of these. I'm getting close.

snoop · 11-28-2008, 07:21 PM

Originally Posted by MicroGuy

Does anyone think we'll start seeing low quality LLLL.coms dropping and becoming available for hand reg anytime soon?

I think it is unlikely, prices would need to fall to zero at the low end before this is a possiblity in my view. In the last bust I remember LLL.net's being given away and the buyout still held.

bmugford · 11-28-2008, 07:24 PM

There are too many LLLL.com buyers, even in a bad market, and too few expiring domains for them to ever be available to hand reg.

snoop · 11-28-2008, 07:27 PM

Originally Posted by bmugford

There are too many LLLL.com buyers, even in a bad market, and too few expiring domains for them to ever be "Reg Fee" again.

I wouldn't have gone that far, they are pretty close to reg fee now.

bmugford · 11-28-2008, 07:28 PM

Yeah, I edited it to "hand reg" to be clearer. That is what I meant by "Reg Fee".

The only way you might be able to get one is if you have several API's. They won't be available to hand reg.
????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=537728

Brad

Originally Posted by snoop

I wouldn't have gone that far, they are pretty close to reg fee now.

-REECE- · 11-28-2008, 07:46 PM

How about you do some research rather than making claims which have no merit. Drops are way down and anyone who's been tracking them (maybe Ergo will share his drop data if you asked nicely) for the last year would know that. Everyone who follows the market will agree prices haven't fallen further since October, nor does drop data at present suggest prices will likely fall in the near future.

Originally Posted by hullswingerscom

yes microguy ....but moSt will say no coz they have lots money invested in LLLL

AND XYRA IS Pronounceable

Originally Posted by MicroGuy

We should have a contest to see who will be the first to hand reg one of these. I'm getting close.

Some NPers have already caught a few. In addition, there are a few domainer owned registrars which sometimes reg the scraps left behind. Any that do become available are registered near-instantaneously. As Brad said, you would need multiple APIs imho to catch small amounts with any frequency.

snoop · 11-28-2008, 07:53 PM

Originally Posted by -REECE-

How about you do some research rather than making claims which have no merit. Drops are way down and anyone who's been tracking them (maybe Ergo will share his drop data if you asked nicely) for the last year would know that. Everyone who follows the market will agree prices haven't fallen further since October, nor does drop data at present suggest prices will likely fall in the near future.

The future direction of this market is not known, anything could happen.
????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=537728

As far as how things have gone since October, there isn't much scope for prices to fall below $2 anyway. Either way it is a washout, lowest quality owners have paid reg fees since then.

The real issue now is people losing though erosion of the time value of those reg fees. With prices so low and reg fees close to or even higher than what the name is worth absolute prices are no longer really a good measure of performance.

-REECE- · 11-28-2008, 08:10 PM

The future direction of everything has a probability attached to it if we really want to get all mathematical about it. You have a roughly 1:2,000,000 chance of dying by falling out of bed, however I don't see many people staying in bed all day out of fear it might happen to them.

Calculated risk -- that's what domaining (and life) is all about. I'll be the first to say anyone who doesn't do their research before investing in this market is a fool. I'll also be the first to say the same about anyone expressing a negative opinion about this market with zero research to back it up.

Too many domainers see domaining as gambling and little more. It may be an inexact science, however anyone throwing their money around one way or the other without at least trying to understand the markets they're choosing or not choosing to invest in is, quite bluntly, a fool. Might as well just donate the money to a registrar.

I don't have a great deal invested in the LLLL.com market myself to be honest (only about 9k, including the $7900 I spent on LLLL.com), however the sales data I'm looking at (2000+ sales over October-November) would suggest prices are relatively stable and appear to have slightly increased at present. Time will tell if the trend holds. I'm not racing to jump back into the market at present, however I'm not writing off the possibility.

Originally Posted by snoop

The future direction of this market is not known, anything could happen.

Originally Posted by snoop

The real issue now is people losing though erosion of the time value of those reg fees. With prices so low and reg fees close to or even higher than what the name is worth absolute prices are no longer really a good measure of performance.

Yes, that's the gamble. I've never been a particularly big fan of the bottom of the barrel LLLL.coms myself and I have referred to them as junk LLLL.coms on a few occasions. As I've recommended many times in the LLLL.com threads, someone investing in the very low end better be either planning to monetize the domains, proactively reach out to end users and attempt to make sales, or plan on holding these domains for 2+ years. The low end isn't "flipping material", that much is certain.

MicroGuy · 11-28-2008, 08:34 PM

Considering that many domainers bought and renewed low quality LLLL.coms now valued at $15 or less, registrars could prove to be the largest beneficiary of the LLLL.com buyout.

( It will be interesting to read this thread in the summer of 2009. I think we could have an answer by then. )

-REECE- · 11-28-2008, 08:42 PM

VeriSign is without doubt the largest beneficiary imho. Most registrars aren't making a great deal with their razor-thin margins.

????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=537728

Originally Posted by MicroGuy

Considering that many domainers bought and renewed low quality LLLL.coms now valued at $15 or less, registrars could prove to be the largest beneficiary of the LLLL.com buyout.

( It will be interesting to read this thread in the summer of 2009. I think we could have an answer by then. )

I don't know why we'd know anything in Summer 09 we won't know by Jan 09.

snoop · 11-28-2008, 08:42 PM

Originally Posted by MicroGuy

Considering that many domainers bought and renewed low quality LLLL.coms now valued at $15 or less, registrars could prove to be the largest beneficiary of the LLLL.com buyout.

I probably say Verisign is the main winner and that domainers are well down overall. People have paid 2 lots of reg fee for buyout names that on average are worth far less than that. Biggest losers are of course the people who bought after the buyout, and the winners are those who sold out to them.

maxeaus · 11-28-2008, 08:45 PM

I read in another domain forum that a guy who had back ordered a LLLL.com in 2004 recently had it pop up in his account, the domain was Ubuy.com, it may be a total load of BS, but maybe backorders would be the best bet?

You may need the translator to see this.

http://translate.google.com.au/trans...%3Den%26sa%3DG

cache · 11-28-2008, 11:29 PM

could not see your link with the translate. Can you link the native without the translation link? I could read the language.

Originally Posted by maxeaus

I read in another domain forum that a guy who had back ordered a LLLL.com in 2004 recently had it pop up in his account, the domain was Ubuy.com, it may be a total load of BS, but maybe backorders would be the best bet?
????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=537728

You may need the translator to see this.

http://translate.google.com.au/trans...%3Den%26sa%3DG

maxeaus · 11-29-2008, 01:24 AM

I dont think your allowed to link to specific sites threads, but if you load the site you can see the discussion on the front page.

admln · 11-29-2008, 04:22 AM

I found in the last 1,5 month enom go crazy to register dropped .com even bad domain like sa8ta.com, jk923.com etc. I thing the LLLL just drop temporary.

MicroGuy · 12-01-2008, 04:25 AM

There are 247 LLLL.com on closeout for $5 this morning including one VCVC and 5 VCCV. Is this something new, or has TDNAM had these at $5 for a while?

Also, does anyone know if the 99 cent (or other) codes work with these. Thanks.

-REECE- · 12-01-2008, 12:47 PM

I don't recall seeing so many at $5 in awhile at TDNAM.

Not sure if the 99c thing works -- it's a one time use coupon, so you can only get 1 domain at that price either way.

They do of course still need to be renewed, along with the $5, so these names are still going to set you back about $13 -- not really much different than could be had at eBay or elsewhere.
????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=537728

Originally Posted by MicroGuy

There are 247 LLLL.com on closeout for $5 this morning including one VCVC and 5 VCCV. Is this something new, or has TDNAM had these at $5 for a while?

Also, does anyone know if the 99 cent (or other) codes work with these. Thanks.

11-28-2008, 03:53 PM	THREAD STARTER #1 (permalink)
MicroGuy Miembro Especial Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: The Fourth Density Posts: 6,831	When will the LLLL.coms start to drop? I've been closely monitoring dropping domains for several months. There has been a steady increase in quality domains dropping including many LLLL.nets that were selling for low $xx six months ago. Does anyone think we'll start seeing low quality LLLL.coms dropping and becoming available for hand reg anytime soon? __________________ ...... Astral Projectors Do It In A Vortex!

11-28-2008, 03:58 PM	#2 (permalink)
dnb8 x/\x/\x/\x Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Lodz Posts: 1,847	I think that some of them should drop in January. __________________ Check my domains at sedo!

11-28-2008, 04:02 PM	#4 (permalink)
hullswingerscom Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: yorkshire Posts: 2,409	yes microguy ....but moSt will say no coz they have lots money invested in LLLL AND XYRA IS Pronounceable __________________ www.transport.tv

11-28-2008, 07:02 PM	#5 (permalink)
napa NamePros Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 110	Domain tasters will be getting those worthless ones first, keep your back order on if you really want one, they will be tasted - dropped -tasted... __________________ Games

11-28-2008, 07:11 PM	THREAD STARTER #6 (permalink)
MicroGuy Miembro Especial Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: The Fourth Density Posts: 6,831	We should have a contest to see who will be the first to hand reg one of these. I'm getting close. __________________ ...... Astral Projectors Do It In A Vortex!

11-28-2008, 07:24 PM	#8 (permalink)
bmugford www.DataCube.com Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: USA Posts: 5,838	There are too many LLLL.com buyers, even in a bad market, and too few expiring domains for them to ever be available to hand reg. __________________ DataCube.com - Buy and Sell Premium Domains

11-28-2008, 08:34 PM	THREAD STARTER #14 (permalink)
MicroGuy Miembro Especial Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: The Fourth Density Posts: 6,831	Considering that many domainers bought and renewed low quality LLLL.coms now valued at $15 or less, registrars could prove to be the largest beneficiary of the LLLL.com buyout. ( It will be interesting to read this thread in the summer of 2009. I think we could have an answer by then. ) __________________ ...... Astral Projectors Do It In A Vortex!

11-28-2008, 08:45 PM	#17 (permalink)
maxeaus Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: Australia Posts: 1,800	I read in another domain forum that a guy who had back ordered a LLLL.com in 2004 recently had it pop up in his account, the domain was Ubuy.com, it may be a total load of BS, but maybe backorders would be the best bet? You may need the translator to see this. http://translate.google.com.au/trans...%3Den%26sa%3DG __________________ Drez Media Last edited by maxeaus; 11-28-2008 at 08:53 PM.

11-29-2008, 01:24 AM	#19 (permalink)
maxeaus Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: Australia Posts: 1,800	I dont think your allowed to link to specific sites threads, but if you load the site you can see the discussion on the front page. __________________ Drez Media

11-29-2008, 04:22 AM	#20 (permalink)
admln Account Suspended Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 19	I found in the last 1,5 month enom go crazy to register dropped .com even bad domain like sa8ta.com, jk923.com etc. I thing the LLLL just drop temporary.

12-01-2008, 04:25 AM	THREAD STARTER #21 (permalink)
MicroGuy Miembro Especial Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: The Fourth Density Posts: 6,831	There are 247 LLLL.com on closeout for $5 this morning including one VCVC and 5 VCCV. Is this something new, or has TDNAM had these at $5 for a while? Also, does anyone know if the 99 cent (or other) codes work with these. Thanks. __________________ ...... Astral Projectors Do It In A Vortex!

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