Charley

How much would you value names like

- ssts

- stmp

- hhkg

__________________
â€* Did We Know That There Aren't Really Thousands Of Bands Who Might Be Interesting, We Will Get To Deleting All Bands That Aren't In Flames, Cannibal Corpse, Morbid Angel, Deicide â€*

betthelot

The value in 4 letter .coms is their intrinsic rarity. But when you consider that if only 5% of 4 letter.coms are developed 22,848, that is more than all LLL.coms put together (17,576); its so much wiser investing in LLL.coms, as the ratio of those developed will raise above 60% 70% 80% so much quicker, than as a percentage of all LLLL.coms developed; and therefore increase their intrinsic value sooner. I’m not knocking LLLL.coms only that the smart money will invest in LLL.coms. My estimate is that 3-4% of all LLLL.coms are developed where as LLL.coms its nearer 65 - 70%.

ssts $1,000
stmp $850
hhkg $350

-REECE-

Most LLLL.com research suggests between 15-25% of LLLL.coms are developed.

LLL.coms are a good investment but nothing that'll ever make someone rich investing in them today. While 50%+ annual ROI is great, it'll take one hell of a long time before that makes your average Namepros domainer with maybe 20k to invest rich, even if LLL.coms continue to increase at the same rate they have in the past which I believe they will not.
????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=486566

Personally, I'd rather lose 50k investing in the LLLL.com market than know I'll never reach my goals staying invested in LLL.coms. An expensive lotto ticket? Perhaps, however it's one risk I'm more than willing to take.

ssts - $800
stmp - $800 (really would look for an enduser on this one)
hhkg - $150

betthelot

Reece, you are really committed to LLLL.coms, because by all the measures I use, LLLL.coms are far more risky than LLL.coms at the current values. I accept it’s not an exact science, so appreciate your position on this, but personally I would jump into the safer LLL.com camp.
????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=486566
It’s the development ratio that wins me over every time, even at your 15% - 25% - I doubt very much the 25%. LLL.coms still have plenty of growth left: yet when you see portfolios of 1000s of LLLL.coms being put up on eBay, it jars against the perceived rarity of these names. They just are not rare.
Saying that I don’t get it right every time but feel I've called this one right.

-REECE-

LLLL.coms are indeed a much riskier investment, but I see it as simple as this:

Which is more likely to occur:

1 - LLL.com goes from $10,000 to $200,000 for the worst one
2 - LLLL.com goes from $15 to $300 for the worst one

In both cases the ROI is exactly the same, yet I see a $300 LLLL.com as a much more likely event than every LLL.com fetching $200,000 -- this is what I meant by no risk, no reward.

LLL.coms are a safe investment. Safe investments are great (especially in this case), but playing it safe always means compromising on ROI in the long run.

-Nick-

Agreed and it also helps in putting eggs in different baskets. You are making more probabilities in your favor for yourself by investing in LLLL.

__________________

labrocca

If you own stmp.com please let us know. I am VERY curious to know about the traffic. As a typical typo of SMTP I would think it could get great traffic. imho it's a $x,xxx domain. It can also be a stamp.com typo.

Just ran it through estibot: $5400.

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filter

Nice setup for a thought experiment - it gets a bit more complicated to calculate when including renewal fees though!

Without renewal fees, would need minimum price to increase by about 35% - compounded each year for 10 years to go from $15 to $300, or from $10,000 to $200,000

so (just to help simplify the calculation) let's prepay 10 years renewal for each right now for approximately $70

effect on ROI is as follows
instead of $10,000 -> $200,000 (34.9285% compounded over 10 years)
we have $10,070 -> $200,000 (34.8342% compounded over 10 years)

instead of $15 -> $300 (34.9285% compounded over 10 years)
we have $85 -> $300 (13.4411% compounded over 10 years)

now, taking this "renewal adjusted" ROI into account, it may make sense to compare chance of the $10,000 LLL.com market price increasing to $35,318 over the next 10 years (about 13.5% compounded annually) - during which time LLLL.com market price of $15 would have to increase to $300 (about 35% compounded annually).

seen in this light, LLLL.com growing at 35% vs. LLL.com growing at 13.5% annually seems a lot closer to "even odds" than the straight-up $15 -> $300 vs $10,000 -> $200,000 scenario.

But, also some other important factors to consider:

1) I'm more comfortable "investing" $85 than $10,000 at this point ... though others with bigger budgets certainly might see this the other way around.

2) $15 or even $300 is way below the "$1500 UDRP filing fee" risk threshold. A $10,000 name might require more (expensive) protection against reverse hijacking attempts. This one is a biggie, IMO.

-REECE-

Good point Dan.

I tend to sell most of my cheap domains (including LLLL) about 6 months before renewals and incur very little in the way of renewal costs myself -- let someone else pay the renewals but do it enough in advance that the other person doesn't take renewal costs into any value they associate with your domain

Keep in mind that pre-paying significantly alters what the end result would otherwise be.


Take the compound interest forumula:

M = P(1+i)^n

where M = final value including principal, having taken the cost of future renewals into account
P = principal amount
i = annual interest rate
n = number of years invested

Adapting that to our unique problem, we need to account for renewal fees which currently run approximately $7 per year. I'll also factor in an annual 7% price increase (denoted as 1.07 in the formula) Verisign has us now most likely paying for the next 4 years. We'll assume prices do not increase further as there is no indication at this time that they will.

To properly compare an LLLL.com, lets assume P = $15 and lets assume an annual interest rate of i = 0.35 (NOT including renewal fees - these are covered separately as seen above) over n = 10 years (eg. equal to what we assumed on LLL.coms).
????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=486566

This gives us:

M = 15(1+0.35)^10 - 7(1.07) - 7(1.07)^2 - 7(1.07)^3 - 7[7(1.07)^4]

hence:

M = $301.60 - $7.49 - $8.01 - $8.58 - $64.26

which implies:

M = $301.60 - $88.34 = $213.26 (some 1 cent approximations made)

Subtracting our initial cost of $15 from M yields a profit of $198.26 from a $15 investment -- all renewal expenses taken into account.

$198.26/$15 = 13.2 times initial investment

Taking the worst LLL.com as being worth $7500 (a more fair comparison than my earlier example) would suggest that 10 years from now it should go for $106,500 if experiencing the exact same 13.2 times increase over 10 years as LLLL.coms (I'm using a real annual interest rate of .294 which is what LLLL.coms yield if renewal fees are taken into account and a nominal interest rate of .35 is assumed. Inflation is assumed nil for the purpose of this calculation, as are the miniscule effect of renewal fees on LLL.com data.)

filter

good stuff Reece, numbers add up ... (calculations starting to approach Black-Scholes territory, LOL)

Well - will be interesting to take a look back at this analysis 10 or even 5 years from now ...

-REECE-

Yes, thanks for keeping me honest in regards to renewal fees Dan.

The higher the rate of appreciation, the more it tips in an LLLL.coms's favor (eg. renewal fee makes up a lower portion of the overall value). Conversely, the lower the rate of appreciation, the more apparent it becomes than an LLL.com is a better investment.
????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=486566

My calculation makes a very large assumption that such an interest rate is possible which we really won't know until we look back 5-10 years from now

The LLLL.com has considerable more risk involved, as is evident by the recurring renewal fees. What is $15 today will require an investment of $103 to breakeven 10 years from now -- not at all a small amount and something to carefully consider before investing in LLLL.coms.

I really wouldn't recommend investing in the low end of the LLLL.com market unless one anticipates $250+ prices 10 years from now -- when inflation and opportunity costs are accounted for, it just doesn't make sense to invest in these according to the math above unless one truly believes that $250+ come 10 years from now is what we should expect.

Would, Should, Could... All we can do is wait I'm afraid

Should be some fun times ahead!

filter

also interesting to look at the path of ROI from $15 with the "pay renewal every year" scenario

year 1
$15 * 1.35 = $20.25
(total cost original $15 + $7 renewal = $22 ... so "ROI" something like negative 8%)

year 2
$20.25 * 1.35 = $27.34
(total cost original $15 + ($7 + $7.49 renewal) = $29.49 ... "ROI" negative 7.3%)

year 3
$27.34 * 1.35 = $36.91
(total cost original $15 + ($7 + $7.49 + $8.01 renewal) = $37.50 ... "ROI" negative 1.6%)

year 4
$36.91 * 1.35 = $49.83
(total cost original $15 + ($7 + $7.49 + $8.01 + $8.58 renewal) = $46.08 ... ROI positive 8.14% ... finally!)

year 5
$49.83 * 1.35 = $67.27
(total cost original $15 + ($7 + $7.49 + $8.01 + $8.58 + $9.18 renewal) = $55.26)

year 6
$67.27 * 1.35 = $90.81
(total cost $15 + 49.44 accumulated renewal = $64.44)

year 7
$90.81 * 1.35 = $122.59
(total cost $15 + $58.62 accumulated renewal = $73.62)

year 8
$122.59 * 1.35 = $165.50
(total cost $15 + $67.80 accumulated renewal = $82.80)

year 9
????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=486566
$165.50 * 1.35 = $223.43
(total cost $15 + $76.98 accumulated renewal = $91.98)

year 10
$223.43 * 1.35 = $301.63
... etc.

Well then ... based on these assumptions - hard to make a rational argument to rush into low-end LLLL.com - seems like one could hold off buying for 3 years and still come out with a better ROI.

But speculative markets aren't always so rational, so who knows how and when (and whether) the low end will move. Renewal fees do seem to be a big drag - unless prices make a quantum leap to $40+ (again!) ...

-REECE-

You're 100% right Dan -- the optimal time to invest may very well be 2-3 years away. The higher the price an LLLL.com goes for, the less of an impact renewals have, so it's only logical that there's considerably less risk involved in investing (and renewing) LLLL.coms when the market is (stable) at $40+ than at present.

filter

well - I really don't know - $20 and under has always seemed like a "safe buy" price point for LLLL.com to me. (If I had funds available, I'd be buying again - so the potential "3 years before positive ROI" analysis is almost certainly driven at least in part by sub-conscious urge to console myself about bargains I may be missing out on right now!)
????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=486566

Prices jump around a lot, really difficult to predict. And looking at CCC.com, it's hard to be sure that prices for "random bad letters" LLLL.com won't be hitting $200+ sooner rather than later. Interesting times - definitely not for the faint of heart

betthelot

Dan 'Domain Wanker' Classy strap name and Reece, you've made some good and interesting points on the figures, the science part. But economists , are paid so much to predict future markets, because not only can they do the maths but also calculate the intangibles that effect markets so much.
My point is, your assumption of 35% growth, which underpins all your calculation, only needs to vary slightly to give a massively different reading after 10years.
The assumed 35% growth, is what I think about most, to determine how likely it is to happen. As with all commodities its supply and demand which determines today's price point. Price growth is where, I predict, 4letter.coms are going to struggle, and therefore struggle to keep pace with the assumed 35% growth. There is not a mathematical equation to show this but using economist’s logic, I can point to this.
We know the supply 456,000 but what about the demand. Many companies use 3 Letter acronyms. Its quiet natural to abbreviate your name if it’s greater than two words, most companies do. We can all think instantly of a whole bunch of major companies that go by a 3 Letter acronym. But 4 letters, we all struggle to get past 1 or 2. Very few companies use 4 words as their company name. We also naturally think in terms of 3 letters when we spell words, we spell them out in groups of 3, try it spell ‘domaining’. I say this because when a company has a brain storm to come up with a name, a 3 letter acronym will roll of the tongue but a 4 letter acronym will feel cumbersome.
????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=486566
This comes to the inevitable point that a 3Letter acronym will have far more end user demand than a 4 letter acronym – yet a 3 letter.com has 95% less supply than a 4 letter.com (17,000:456,000). The supply and demand ratio points greatly in favour of 3letter.coms and therefore its potential price growth is much more sustainable and potentially higher. I estimate over 50% of LLL.coms are developed and another 20% held by strong investors, once that ratio gets to 65% developed and 20% held, supply is going to get really squeezed. Something that will not happen in our life time, with LLLL.coms.

I am going to keep a count down of the number of LLL.coms developed and held sometime this year because that is what will drive up values going forward.

As a caveat I am not knocking that some and most 4letter.coms have value, Im arguing 3Letter.coms are a better investment for growth.

filter

sure, to be clear - calculating these figures for the sake of a thought exercise, not a prediction of steady growth @ 35% for low-end LLLL.com and LLL.com.

That is, just unrolling a long "then ..." after the "Big IF"

Probably not at all the same market for low $xxx domains as for $xxx,xxx domains though.

Looking at 46,000+ CCC.com now trading among domainers with minimum low $xxx price (and without any significant base of end-users, as far as I know) - it's not unreasonable to see some potential for low-end LLLL.com reaching a similar level in a few years.

while I haven't given much serious thought to where the LLL.com market might be headed, I'm less inclined to expect $100,000 minimum price for low-end LLL.com in the same amount of time that might yield $300 minimum price for LLLL.com. Calculating this equivalence taking renewal fees into account pegs these hypothetical outcomes to a 10 year timeframe - we can run plenty of other models to examine different scenarios as well.
????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=486566

Bottom line is indeed "who knows?" - but some scenarios do ultimately seem more plausible than others (with different people seeing the odds differently - that's a big part of what makes an interesting market)

betthelot

Dan I appreciate that it was a thought exercise, and a useful one. I felt giving the title of this thread, that the values being predicted needed to be based in some sound reasoning. I feel nervous when I see these threads for CCC.coms LLLL.coms and those with hypens, that the discussions have the feeling of creating a bubble, especially as it seems these niches are hyped by domainers who are selling to domainers.
????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=486566
I’m challenging what I see as hype and 35% growth seems hype to me (I appreciate its a figure chosen for illustration purposes) but I challenged it to see if someone could persuade me otherwise, that there is strong enough demand and limited supply enough for 35% price increase year on year. I would be quiet happy to be persuaded that there are good reasons to expect a 35% compound return but I haven’t heard anything to convince me yet, so I still hold the opinion that there isn’t the end user demand to see 35% yearly price increases for 4letter.coms.

-REECE-

You mention the word Bubble and that's one thing we really can't factor into this equation with the limited knowledge we have in this market segment, yet this unknown variable is more than enough to sink the LLLL.com boat..

The domaining sector is very young as a whole -- aside from strong generics and LLL.coms, most domains have very little history of being significantly valued and it is certainly up for debate whether current prices in a market such as CCC.coms are a market correction waiting to happen.

If we consider CCC.coms to be a Bubble which shall soon pop, then the whole "LLLL.coms are just as good or better than CCC.coms" is moot.

I don't think one will find many well established domainers who will argue that CCC.coms should trade at prices 5-10+ times what most LLLL.coms go for -- Again, the question must be asked whether the CCC.com is overpriced or the LLLL.com underpriced.

That's a very fair question and one I'm afraid we cannot ascertain one way or the other at this time.

I stick by my statements that:

1 - LLL.coms are a much safer investment
2 - LLL.coms will yield a much lower ROI over the next 10 years than certain other domain investments (not necessarily LLLL.coms)
3 - LLLL.coms present the opportunity for considerable more growth at the expense of considerable more risk.

filter

actually I'd be surprised to see anything resembling "steady" growth in low-end LLLL.com in the next few years ... More likely IMO to be fairly volatile as we've seen already, which is dangerous territory for flippers and short-term investors.

Difficult to predict accurately 5, 10, or more years out - and if it were easy then there wouldn't be much point (since everyone would be getting it right way ahead of time, pricing all profit opportunities out of the market in the process) ... After whatever rational analysis is said and done with, most people probably still go mostly with their gut feeling. And then it's easy to overpay in a rising market, and easy to sell too cheap in a down market ....

betthelot

Reece I understand your position on this and generally I agree with you. I’m looking at it from a specific angle of demand and supply and extrapolating from that what is the likely hood of 35% returns and then comparing it to LLL.coms. I should declare my interest that I’m heavily invested in LLL.coms. Im probing to see if I missed some aspect that makes LLLL.coms worth investing in other than that at $20 its low enough to see great returns, that’s exactly how many people have been burnt with penny stocks in the past. I.E shares in a company listed on the London Stock Exchange are only 3 pence and therefore only a penny increase will see a 33% return, must be worth a bet; many an investor have fallen for this mirage.

4LTR.org

I for one do not understand why a domain like QXZ.com is worth $7,000, or X-Z.com is worth $1500, however, qxzy.com might be worth $20 and A-MM is worth just $7. Either there is a demand for short domains, or certain domains are high due to market manipulation. If the later is the case, then all domains will go down in value. However, if a LLL.com is worth 7,000 and rising due to supply and demand, then I can't see why all LLLL.coms won't follow in their footsteps.

I'll share with you a few of the reasons that I like LLLL.coms.

4 letter domains are rare and in short supply not only because of their length, but because of their popularity.

Keywords-
There are 40,000 English 4 letter words. Most were registered a long time ago. Further, there are hundreds of thousands of 4 letter words when you consider every language including Chinese pinyin. As more non-english speaking people come online, obscure words come into demand.
Brandability
There are lots of short, fun possibilities like Pogo, Bido, Bebo, GoTo, MeTo, ImAt,GetA, iTop, eBay, eBuy.
Acronyms-
Although their are only 456,750 LLLL.com domains, there are millions of potential acronyms in a multitude of languages. Letter combinations have lots of different possibilities and often make memorable names like NASA and NYSE. Even the most difficult letters to work with in the English language like x are often popular in other languages.
Names-
There are tens of thousands of First, Last, Middle, Nicknames, etc., like
Ling, Lynn, Anne, Zova, Mark, Ming, Pepe, Raul, Yung, MrJi, Fong, JBob, NLiu....
????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=486566
Cheap-
Much cheaper than a LLL.com domain for business use. Further, companies with only 3 letters can use fillers like S for Services, I for Industry, Inc, L for LLC, G for Group, P for Partner, F for Foundation, C for Company and more. In fact I've got a list of filler names for every letter of the English language from Association to Zone.
Advertising-
Cheaper to advertise a short domain.
Radio Stations-
Radio stations often have 4 letter call numbers like kSKS and KCVB.
Web Terminology
New acronyms are invented all the time like IMHO, LMAO, IMAO...
Cell Phones-
Short for cell phone use. Ideal for redirects.
License Plates-
Short enough for vanity plates.

martinisky

I must say that I am having an amazing time watching the exchange of ideas, beliefs and facts in this thread. This is by far the most professional and respectful thread I have come across ever on NamePros. I wish I had something to add but you guys are having such a great discussion I will just sit back and watch.

Reps added to everyone on this thread that I'm not too fond of already.

Keep it up guys, this is great stuff. Thanks.

bmugford

I agree with your point here. I still have a hard time seeing a $7K+ valuation on QXZ.com when QXZ company could get QXZC (Company), QXZI (Inc), QXZO (Online), or any number of similar domains for under $100.

I think the same thing will happen with LLL.com that happened with LLLL.com
The gap is going to increase between quality and lower quality domains.

Whether this is from the top end going up, or from the low end going down I don't have any idea. But, it is ridiculous when the worst letters go for $8K and you can buy a quality triple for $15K.

Brad

__________________
DataCube.com - Buy and Sell Premium Domains

betthelot

Thanks for your thoughts 4ltrorg, I went on your website v.impressive.

Why QXZ.com is worth $7,000, is for the reason you write later that ‘ X is often popular in other languages.’ In China QXZ are super premium. Their language limits which letters can be used to start a word (there is a matrix which when you first learn Chinese PinYin that outlines these, if you want it PM me). Therefore QXZ are used with enormous frequency for the initial letter of a city, person’s name, and nouns.
????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=486566
????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=486566
What tickles me, is that I download the list of expiring .cn names everyday. Never do I see a 3letter.cn drop with QXorZ in it but see many with CSOEIATRPUV as these are never or v.rarely used for initials. In the west we see these as premium but I can pick them up for less than $10. In fact I don’t buy them.

Your other point is ‘that either there is a demand for short domains…… or they are high due to market manipulation.’
There is a demand but some are more in demand than others. 3letters.com are in much more demand because many companies use 3letters as their company/brand name but very few use 4letters. And on the other side of the equation, SUPPLY. There is 95% less supply of 3letter.coms than 4letter.coms(17,000:450,000). I will even go as far to say there is 97% less supply as at least 50% of 3letter.coms are developed. Ultimately all prices gravitate back to the demand-supply equation and only deviate when there are Fads, Hype and investors selling to investors like pyramid selling, we see this all the time with commodities and realestate.

You then list reasons why 4 letter domains are popular, which I comment on in turn.
Keywords-
This is a different sector and no one is arguing these do not have great value. But you can make this argument for 3 4 5 6 letter domains
Brandability
But 3letter.coms are as brandable or more brandable
Acronyms-
To quote ‘Although there are only 456,750 LLLL.com domains.’
That’s a lot of domains – I just do not buy that they are rare when I see a portfolio of a few thousand LLLL.coms being offered on eBay for about $40 each. This jars against the perceived rarity.
Names-
There are tens of thousands of First, Last, Middle, Nicknames,
That still leaves 430,000 domains available
Advertising-
Cheaper to advertise a short domain.
Has very minimal impact on the decision to choose a name for a company or product
Radio Stations-
Radio stations often have 4 letter call numbers like kSKS and KCVB.
OK, That leaves 429,500 domains
Web Terminology
New acronyms are invented all the time like IMHO, LMAO, IMAO...
Does that make them valuable?
Cell Phones-
Short for cell phone use. Ideal for redirects.
OK
License Plates-
Short enough for vanity plates
OK

I have left this one to last as I hear this a number of times and I think this is a misnomer.
Most business owners with the company name ABC, giving the choice between having ABC.com compared with ABCG.com or ABCI.com and the others you show will pay a huge premium for ABC.com. It is in the human psyche, every time the business owner gives out his web address he’s going to feel subconsciously he’s failed. No I wasn’t quick enough or had the foresight to register ABC.com in fact another company with the same initials was smarter than me so I have end up with ABCG.com and I have to explain the G every day to new contacts to remind me of my failing. I have first hand experience of this, my company name is ‘XXX’ and the owner of XXX.com isn’t even using the name – nearly once I year I make contact with the owner who is retired but he will not sell, not even enter negotiations and passes me to his son who only acts on his father's wishes. I ended up registering ‘XXXUK.com’ prime example of a filler UK as that’s where the business is based. But do I need to pay $50 for it no because there is a hundred different filler alternatives I can just hand reg one. But what will I pay for ‘XXX’.com – absolutely honest $100,000, pure vanity, for clarity I use 'XXX' as a substitute for the real letters as I still will be making contact with the owner every year. Business men have some of the largest egos and that’s why they will pay v.high for their brand/name/intials .com and next to nothing for fillers.

Given all the comments in this thread, I feel there is a consensus developing that 4letter.coms are more risky but offer high returns, if you have one which has the initials of a business or a brand they want to develop. But most will remain on the shelf for a very long time and I’m talking tens of years before an enduser is found. Therefore to invest in 4letter.coms you need a fairly large portfolio which will give you enough bullets to have the scatter gun approach and when you hit an enduser make sure they pay big, to offset all those names sitting pretty waiting for that elusive enduser. In the meantime beware of Fads and Hype.

4LTR.org

You make lots of good points Betthelot however, I still have a few disagreements.
????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=486566

There is 95% less supply of 3letter.coms than 4letter.coms(17,000:450,000). I will even go as far to say there is 97% less supply.....

Actually the ratio is 1/26. So if a LLL.com so if xqz.com sold for $7000, then xqzi.com should sell for $269. So as Bmugsford stated, either Xqz.com should go down, or xqzi.com should go up in time.

When I see a portfolio of a few thousand LLLL.coms being offered on eBay for about $40 each. This jars against the perceived rarity.

Sure, there is an oversupply of LLLL.coms right now, however, all domain types right now are in a slump for about 10 different reasons. It is not just the LLLL.com and in fact I see more people getting rid of their long keywords on the sales venues faster than I see them getting rid of LL.com, LLL.com, and LLLL.com domains.

As far as your comment on rarity goes, it depends upon what you perceive as rare. The fact that all of the 2, 3, and 4 letter domains are all registered makes many believe that they are rare. When you consider that there are over 11,881,376...5 letter domains and 308,915,766...6 letter domains, and 8,031,810,176...7 letter domains,456,976 looks like a pretty small number. Especially when you consider just how many acronyms there are or could be in the future. Acronymfinder.com lists over 600,000 english only acronyms and state that they are still expanding and adding new acronyms all the time. Now consider all the different languages, and every LONG name - Names for companies, organizations, personal names, diseases, cities, states, countries, planets, stars, galaxies, plants, animals, classifications, every long book title, every long word or phrase that may be popular in any book that has ever been published or will be published. There could be millions of uses for just 456,976 LLLL.coms.

Advertising-Cheaper to advertise a short domain. Has very minimal impact on the decision to choose a name for a company or product
Have you looked a the price of print media now days? Further, longer names are harder to spell, write down quickly and memorize for audio advertising. People prefer simple and short. High Definition Television quickly became HDTV. Bank of America now calls itself B of A. Visa International Service Association calls itself VISA. Down the street I have a This Can't Be Yogurt Shop - a very popular franchise which renamed itself to TCBY. The web is full of acronyms IMO, LMAO. Text messaging is becoming a language within itself. Long and formal is quickly being placed by short and fast.

I have left this one to last as I hear this a number of times and I think this is a misnomer. Most business owners with the company name ABC, giving the choice between having ABC.com compared with ABCG.com or ABCI.com and the others you show will pay a huge premium for ABC.com. It is in the human psyche, every time the business owner gives out his web address he’s going to feel subconsciously he’s failed.....
In this tough economy, and with lots of small businesses hurting financially. Saving thousands of dollars can make one feel like a winner as well.

Given all the comments in this thread, I feel there is a consensus developing that 4letter.coms are more risky but offer high returns.....
I disagree on the risk factor. You mentioned ABC.com as an example before. However, it is a trademark by lots of companies, in fact most 3 letter domains are company trademarks. Thus, lots of investors are frightened away from purchasing one due to a UDRP. However, just by adding one extra L, to a LLL.com domain, there are now 26 times more possible acronyms to choose from and far less of a chance that your infringing on someone's TM. Therefore I know that I'd sleep a bit better at if I were a new investor testing out the waters by paying $20 for QZCY.com, than $7000 for QZC.com

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Now, with all that said we have to consider all these new TLD's. I think the time has past for people to debate the merits of LLL.coms vs LLLL.coms and start working together.

Investing in any domain is already a risky business. Wine.com sold for a couple million, although I do not know who bought it, I'd probably be drinking pretty heavily right now. Will it go up, or down when they come up with a .wine?
????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=486566

There are just so many variables. I can see lots of entrepreneurs paying high dollars for generic words like .car, .house, .bank, etc.. However, many of us are holding onto a great number of LLL.coms, LLLL.coms, LLLLL.coms, LLLL.nets, L-LL.coms, etc.. Now is the time that we strengthen our market, or fall apart and start running like chicken little "the sky is falling, the sky is falling"!

We all had reasons to get into short domain investing. We need to start thinking of as many reasons as we can why .com, .net and .org should remain the king, queen and uhhh...prime minister?

Here are my top 3 belief why short .coms are not at risk.
1. A short domain name and a very short and popular and memorable .com seems like a winning combination as it places all the emphasis on the company name.
2. If I had MCLB.com and I was a mortgage and loan broker. I would stick with the .com domain because the other domain choices like MCLB.Loans, MCLB.Bank, MCLB.Financial or MCLB.Crooks would limit me to the English language, and only to a small segment of my business.
3. Customers would have to use the search engines and surf through millions of sites trying to find you, and perhaps end up on one of your competitors pages because they couldn't remember your TLD.