Why laptops.mobi is worth 10X multiple of 600.mobi - And other valuation secrets...

jeremyp · 12-10-2006, 08:59 AM

This week several .MOBI auctions achieved some level of notoriety on the NP board and in the domainer community - of these, I had my eyes on Laptops.mobi and 600.mobi

Laptops.mobi achieved a final bid of $33,000 in a furious fight to the finish, creating a buzz in the domainer community that almost set my cell phone on fire with text messages and voicemail. I was in the airport returning from a business trip. My phone buzzed so constantly with information that my left leg became numb.

$33,000! $33,000!

In the meantime, 600.mobi had a nice run and finished at $3,250. It's the first of my 191 MOBI portfolio that I decided to sacrifice. I sold it for informational purposes as much as for a little cash infusion. Afterall, I've spent as much money as the next guy (ok, maybe not Jean...!) on my MOBI e-realestate.

So... this begs the question...

"WHY IS LAPTOPS.MOBI WORTH A MULTIPLE OF 10X 600.MOBI IN AUCTIONS OF EQUAL AWARENESS TO THE DOMAINER COMMUNITY AND COMMUNITY AT LARGE?"

My opinion is that Laptops.mobi IS IN FACT worth a 10X multiple of 600.mobi, and that both Laptops.mobi and 600.mobi are reflective of very good deals in this budding MOBI marketplace.

(1) THE DOT COM COMPARISON:
Think of this in terms of DOT COM for a moment. Laptops.com undeveloped, in my opinion, is a $2-4MM name. Cameras.com just sold at auction for $1.5MM. Cameras has a lot in common with Laptops - both high dollar/unit electronic consumer product items, both high volume unit drivers worldwide, both from remarkably competitive industries with multibillion dollar companies driving the bulk of sales, and both with a strong percentage of purchases online.

600.MOBI is more like a 2 or 3 numeral .COM that achieves type-in traffic. It doesn't reach out to any particular industry as, for instance, 69 might hit adult targeted traffic (hehheh... bevis) or 800 might reach out to those seeking a toll free directory or so on. There isn't an obvious targeted marketing opportunity. It will achieve TYPE-IN hits, but how, then, do you direct that traffic from a targeted advertising perspective? So, as a .COM, I'd say 600 would sell for $100K - $250K depending on the need and urgency of the buyer.

I'm saying this with only a gut estimate on the traffic that might be generated by both names at the .COM level.

(2) KEYWORD CONSUMABLES - GOODS AND SERVICES ARE PREMIUM
We all know this is the case... However, what factors might compound the premium nature of a domain name? Not every consumable is equal.
????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/dot-mobi/267494-why-laptops-mobi-worth-10x-multiple.html

First, how close to the industry standard keyword is your consumable keyword. With "laptops" I'd say it's one of the top 5 keywords in it's industry: laptops, computers, computer, laptop, desktops, harddrives, monitors and so on... These names are the most likely to get blind type-in hits as they represent the most trusted and most obvious names within this CP (consumer product) field.

Jumping to the second level of that CP field, you'd start hitting 2 word phrases: Buylaptops, etc... Consumers will type in the industry standards before they start using 2 and 3 word phrases. It doesn't mean these aren't OUTSTANDING. It just means, one layer of premium peels away.

Second, how big is this specific consumable industry in terms of dollar volume? Computer sales = huge business. Massive. In terms of total units and $/unit. Any advantage or ability to achieve a meaningful positioning in the marketplace as a manufacturer or retailer could mean millions of dollars. $33,000 is a bargain to achieve this objective.

Third, how much money does this particular field spend in advertising revenue to reach it's end consumer. In terms of the computer world, it's a laugher... Gobs. Gobs. I'm not going to do the research right now, but I'd say that computer hardware sales represents one of the top-10 spends from a marketing/advertising standpoint.

Fourth, what percentage of sales is done online in this particular industry. Again, online sales of computer hardware and hardware accessories is very strong, representing big $'s and big unit volume.

Fifth, is this strong online consumer spend reflective of what is happening with pay/click advertising from manufacturers? For laptops, yes. Check out Overture.com... you'll see a nice $1.00+ per click for this keyword.

(3) DO THE MATH
So, now that you are armed with a little more knowledge on the DOT COM VS MOBI test and the CONSUMER PRODUCT PREMIUM test, how do you put this into an equation that might yield some level of benefit as a domain name speculator looking to harvest ultimate cashflow? Long sentence, huh?

Do the math...

A domain name is worth the following...

Branding Value +
????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=267494
(Type-In Hits/day * % Click Through * $ Click Through) *
3-12 Yearly Multiple based on industry and nature of name +
Speculative Value of that extensnion =
Domain name value

This is the Jeremy Padawer equation. Or, I'd like to call it that as I've been using it for the last 10 years. Shhh... don't tell anybody.... or tell everybody.

Let's focus on this equation for a second to determine value.

Branding Value is subjective to that particular buyer. If a company has invested a ton of money in a name (keyword or descriptive), that company could pay you a huge branding premium.

Type-In Hits is not subjective. It's a real number. For example purposes only, let's assume 50 type/in hits day.

% Click Through is measurable but dependent on how good your parking program or click through program is. In this case, let's assume a 10% click/through rate.

$ Click is measurable and changes depending on the program and the bidders. Let's assume a $1.50 click rate.

3-12 multiple is a number that is analogous to the fundamentals of any company's earnings. You have a lower multiple if there is some sort of time limitation to the traffic or you see a downward trend month to month. You get a higher multiple if you are in a fast growth industry, see traffic ramping up, etc... Many variables go into the multiple. It is measurable.

Speculative value of the extension is not measurable but obvious. You know as a domainer, that MOBI has a high speculative value. COM, ORG, NET do not have a high speculative value. Their value is based almost entirely on today's real fundamentals. MOBI doesn't have the level of awareness on the web surfing community, but does have a tremendous positioning statement, purpose and potential future use. A massive % of MOBI valuation is in this bucket for now. Almost NO, ZERO, ZIP speculative valuation falls into the COM, ORG or NET bucket.

So, let's do the math on the fictional domain name just based on the fundamentals and not based on branding value or speculative extension value.

50 hits day * 10% click through * $1.50 * 8 Years Multiple = $21,900

If you add branding value and speculative value of extension this $21,900 would travel northward.

So, this is all from me for today.

Sincerely,
Jeremy Padawer
"Dot Mobi King" :-)

(c) Jeremy Padawer 2006

danmanmktng · 12-10-2006, 09:44 AM

Holy crap that was long, you going for a book deal?

That said, right on.

Domain Jedi · 12-10-2006, 10:01 AM

Jeremy, I enjoyed your analysis of the recent .mobi sales.

Long live the Dot Mobi King!

newton · 12-10-2006, 10:03 AM

A truly delightful post and very insightful

oldtimer · 12-10-2006, 11:00 AM

That is great analysis, I just like to point out that for some of the specialized extensions such as .mobi there is also another factor that has influence on the price and that is the suitability of the keyword to the extension itself. In the .mobi case the keywords that represent products, services, and info that are somehow related to mobile use will demand higher prices than those that are just general in nature. IMO

colombani · 12-10-2006, 11:26 AM

Hello Jeremy,

Of course I'm sorry for you 600.mobi sell is not 22000$. You'd pay the restaurant.

Very interesting post.

Question 1 : Do you think the PPC system nowaday used for .com, .net... will be the same in the future for .mobi ?

Question 2 : Do you think auctions are sometimes increasing prices related to classic sales ?

Question 3 : Can I use your domain value method for the domains you want to sell me ?

nametrekker · 12-10-2006, 11:54 AM

Jeremy,

You the man! You're the mobi commodore!

best, Steve

mirrorcube · 12-10-2006, 12:09 PM

Great analysis on that huge .mobi sale. The mobile internet is an area that is ripe to explode and single keyword names that represent a major consumer product should and will sell higher as more countries especially the United States build the appropriate infrastructure for the industry.

Jeremy i am liking the ".mobi king" moniker ala Rick Schwartz.

danmanmktng · 12-10-2006, 12:14 PM

Jeremy,

I thought about it. I buy your analysis. But I think it's more valid for mature extensions than it is for .mobi.

The problem in using it for .mobi is that there is zero traffic right now. This means you have to use some sort of expected future traffic as your metric to get a fundamental value -- and that still requires you to guess about the future success of .mobi.
????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=267494

For .mobi I think a simpler valuation technique would be to take a reference extension (.com, .net, .org, .info, or .biz) and use this as your benchmark for .mobi values.

So for example, if I know that laptops.biz sold for $50,000, and my guess is that there's a 50% chance .mobi will be 2x as valuable as .biz, 25% chance it will be as valuable as .biz, and 25% chance it will be worth 1/4 of the .biz. Then I would estimate value of the .mobi as

.5($100,000)+.25(50,000)+.25(12,500) =~ $65,000.

Now, since we actually have a datapoint that laptops sold for $33,000, we can say that the market in fact values .mobi at about 2/3 the .biz. Given enough sales to compare between 2 extensions (easiest benchmark to use would be .com because it has had the most reported sales), it should be possible to come up with a pretty accurate discount factor.

So what I'm saying is, if we average the discount on the .com for 100 known .mobi sales, lets say we find that people value the .mobi as being 2% of the .com. And you own sex.mobi, you can be reasonably sure that the value of your .mobi (according to the market) is somewhere around 2% of the .com value.

Of course, there will be a premium on certain domains in the .mobi vs. the .com and vice-versa, and that is a subjective factor that you can use to say whether the benchmarking valuation is an underestimate or an overestimate.

Now lets say we have data points on several major extensions (.com, .org, .biz, etc.). for 100 different domain names. You can calculate the value of known .mobi sales relative to each of these. From this, you can estimate the value of your .mobi relative to each of the extensions and average of all of them. This should decrease the error that could be associated with one outlier sale.

Here is what I propose: as a board, lets come up with the data we need for this analysis. Specifically, I need the sale price of .com, .org. .biz, .info, and .net sales for domains for which we know the .mobi prices. With this data, I volunteer to run the necessary statistical tests and give everyone who contributes a more solid .mobi valuation model to use.

We will value .mobis like wall street values companies!

Let me know what you all think.

Thanks,
Dan

nametrekker · 12-10-2006, 01:14 PM

good points all around -- let's try to derive some metrics for valuation --- as we probably all concur, mobi has great "potential", but let's try to develop/utilize some concrete variables for valuation methods - key words, traffic, OVT, PPC, development in other extensions (eg, fantasy____.com, versus fantasy____.mobi), Alexa, etc ---

I also feel we will be able gauge some better long-term path of Mobi, after the "big brand" companies win the RFPs of the 4 high premiums in February, followed by development - eg, if ESPN/orFox or Yahoo wins the bid for "Sports", a major telecom wins the "ringtones" jewell, etc ---

claudedauman · 12-10-2006, 01:15 PM

Jeremy - I would like to thank you for your very articulate analysis. It is so helpful and informative.

In addition, I would like to thank you for your kind words in reference to BuyLaptops.mobi (I am the current owner). I attempted to use your formula for BuyLaptops.mobi and for LaptopMemory.mobi and I had a few questions: How do you calculate the hits per day? Do you use a percentage of the Overture keyword figure? If yes, do you use only the exact keyword match or do you combine them? For bids, do you average the top three or top five bids or do you use the highest one?

Jeremy, I hope that I am not imposing. I would be exceedingly grateful for your input.

vcool · 12-10-2006, 01:40 PM

Great Analysis and the formula. I think Laptops.mobi is worth more than $33k.

One questions: In you formula you have used hits/day, is this unique visits per day or page views per day? some domain people looks at page views per day. The difference as far as my understanding is, unique visits is number of visitors on your site and page views is how many pages were viewed by those visitors. So, the number of page views will always be more then number of unique visitors. I think page views matter more than unique visits as more page views you have, the more number of times your ad is displayed.

????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=267494

If I use your formula , dir.mobi is woth $175,200 ( 400 unique visits/day) and $1,095,000 ( 2500 page views/day). Of course I am not adding the branding/name factor.

Btw, I gave you the title " dot mobi king".

Vcool

-db- · 12-10-2006, 01:52 PM

Some interesting points by Jeremy. I agree with some of them, and disagree with some of them.

I think danmanmktng's brought up realistic alternative angles.

And btw, I would expect Laptops.COM to sell for 10X the amount of 600.COM, and I don't really see the .MOBI relevance, or why it should be significant or surprising.

oldtimer · 12-10-2006, 02:31 PM

KeywordA.com sells for 150K
KeywordB.com also sells for 150K

But,

KeywordA.mobi sells for 25K
KeywordB.mobi sells for 2K

.com is used as a general extension and almost all keywords are relevant to the extension so if you have a good keyword it will demand a high price in .com, but for special extensions such as .mobi in order to get a high price not only you have to have a good keyword but your keyword must also be suitable to the .mobi extension by being relevant to mobile use. In the case of laptops it seems to be a perfect fit for .mobi as more and more laptops are having wireless internet access and so they are becoming more like mobile devices. Just my opinion

sibarani · 12-11-2006, 08:03 PM

As i know, dot COM always be the "starter" for others. A dot COM's name sales also followed by another non-COM sales with different price but also a close price. For example it was happened with Sex.com and Sex.net, Mortgage.com and Mortgage.net, and many others. But that facts cant be the guidelines to predict what will happen in the future.
But the great news is dot MOBI is a new platform of a new world, different than other ext. It make sense if the high sales, direct typing domain names in dot COM will do the same in this new platform, new devices,and new technologies--dot MOBI.
But we just wait and see..

Good luck for All!

:: PublicRelation.mobi :: Bumble.mobi :: Journalist.mobi :: axuw.com ::

jeremyp · 12-12-2006, 09:46 PM

Dear Colombani,

Answer 1 - I simply don't know. I believe that it will be similar... for the next year or two, probably fewer links with fewer advertisers.

Answer 2 - I believe that auctions are reflective of accurate market valuation. I am aware of a 6-figure private sale. It was a name I bid on and lost. I can't go into details, but I hope that they come public with the name.

Answer 3 - Of course! Send me some offers. :-) The valuation is in the speculation side as of now. :-)

Jeremy

Originally Posted by colombani

Hello Jeremy,

Of course I'm sorry for you 600.mobi sell is not 22000$. You'd pay the restaurant.

Very interesting post.

Question 1 : Do you think the PPC system nowaday used for .com, .net... will be the same in the future for .mobi ?

Question 2 : Do you think auctions are sometimes increasing prices related to classic sales ?

Question 3 : Can I use your domain value method for the domains you want to sell me ?

Not imposing whatsoever!

Great questions...

Calculate hits/day by pageviews. Remember, at the end of the day, it's about % clickthrough. So, unique viewers are only one part of the game.

For overture keyword figure, I use 2nd highest bid usually. Blend of top-5 bids is smart. Very smart.

Also, yes, exact keyword match. :-)

Jeremy

Originally Posted by claudedauman

How do you calculate the hits per day? Do you use a percentage of the Overture keyword figure? If yes, do you use only the exact keyword match or do you combine them? For bids, do you average the top three or top five bids or do you use the highest one?

Jeremy, I hope that I am not imposing. I would be exceedingly grateful for your input.

Thank you!!!

Originally Posted by vcool

????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=267494
Btw, I gave you the title " dot mobi king".

Vcool

12-10-2006, 08:59 AM	THREAD STARTER #1 (permalink)
jeremyp NamePros Regular Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 614	Why laptops.mobi is worth 10X multiple of 600.mobi - And other valuation secrets... This week several .MOBI auctions achieved some level of notoriety on the NP board and in the domainer community - of these, I had my eyes on Laptops.mobi and 600.mobi Laptops.mobi achieved a final bid of $33,000 in a furious fight to the finish, creating a buzz in the domainer community that almost set my cell phone on fire with text messages and voicemail. I was in the airport returning from a business trip. My phone buzzed so constantly with information that my left leg became numb. $33,000! $33,000! In the meantime, 600.mobi had a nice run and finished at $3,250. It's the first of my 191 MOBI portfolio that I decided to sacrifice. I sold it for informational purposes as much as for a little cash infusion. Afterall, I've spent as much money as the next guy (ok, maybe not Jean...!) on my MOBI e-realestate. So... this begs the question... "WHY IS LAPTOPS.MOBI WORTH A MULTIPLE OF 10X 600.MOBI IN AUCTIONS OF EQUAL AWARENESS TO THE DOMAINER COMMUNITY AND COMMUNITY AT LARGE?" My opinion is that Laptops.mobi IS IN FACT worth a 10X multiple of 600.mobi, and that both Laptops.mobi and 600.mobi are reflective of very good deals in this budding MOBI marketplace. (1) THE DOT COM COMPARISON: Think of this in terms of DOT COM for a moment. Laptops.com undeveloped, in my opinion, is a $2-4MM name. Cameras.com just sold at auction for $1.5MM. Cameras has a lot in common with Laptops - both high dollar/unit electronic consumer product items, both high volume unit drivers worldwide, both from remarkably competitive industries with multibillion dollar companies driving the bulk of sales, and both with a strong percentage of purchases online. 600.MOBI is more like a 2 or 3 numeral .COM that achieves type-in traffic. It doesn't reach out to any particular industry as, for instance, 69 might hit adult targeted traffic (hehheh... bevis) or 800 might reach out to those seeking a toll free directory or so on. There isn't an obvious targeted marketing opportunity. It will achieve TYPE-IN hits, but how, then, do you direct that traffic from a targeted advertising perspective? So, as a .COM, I'd say 600 would sell for $100K - $250K depending on the need and urgency of the buyer. I'm saying this with only a gut estimate on the traffic that might be generated by both names at the .COM level. (2) KEYWORD CONSUMABLES - GOODS AND SERVICES ARE PREMIUM We all know this is the case... However, what factors might compound the premium nature of a domain name? Not every consumable is equal. ????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/dot-mobi/267494-why-laptops-mobi-worth-10x-multiple.html First, how close to the industry standard keyword is your consumable keyword. With "laptops" I'd say it's one of the top 5 keywords in it's industry: laptops, computers, computer, laptop, desktops, harddrives, monitors and so on... These names are the most likely to get blind type-in hits as they represent the most trusted and most obvious names within this CP (consumer product) field. Jumping to the second level of that CP field, you'd start hitting 2 word phrases: Buylaptops, etc... Consumers will type in the industry standards before they start using 2 and 3 word phrases. It doesn't mean these aren't OUTSTANDING. It just means, one layer of premium peels away. Second, how big is this specific consumable industry in terms of dollar volume? Computer sales = huge business. Massive. In terms of total units and $/unit. Any advantage or ability to achieve a meaningful positioning in the marketplace as a manufacturer or retailer could mean millions of dollars. $33,000 is a bargain to achieve this objective. Third, how much money does this particular field spend in advertising revenue to reach it's end consumer. In terms of the computer world, it's a laugher... Gobs. Gobs. I'm not going to do the research right now, but I'd say that computer hardware sales represents one of the top-10 spends from a marketing/advertising standpoint. Fourth, what percentage of sales is done online in this particular industry. Again, online sales of computer hardware and hardware accessories is very strong, representing big $'s and big unit volume. Fifth, is this strong online consumer spend reflective of what is happening with pay/click advertising from manufacturers? For laptops, yes. Check out Overture.com... you'll see a nice $1.00+ per click for this keyword. (3) DO THE MATH So, now that you are armed with a little more knowledge on the DOT COM VS MOBI test and the CONSUMER PRODUCT PREMIUM test, how do you put this into an equation that might yield some level of benefit as a domain name speculator looking to harvest ultimate cashflow? Long sentence, huh? Do the math... A domain name is worth the following... Branding Value + ????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=267494 (Type-In Hits/day * % Click Through * $ Click Through) * 3-12 Yearly Multiple based on industry and nature of name + Speculative Value of that extensnion = Domain name value This is the Jeremy Padawer equation. Or, I'd like to call it that as I've been using it for the last 10 years. Shhh... don't tell anybody.... or tell everybody. Let's focus on this equation for a second to determine value. Branding Value is subjective to that particular buyer. If a company has invested a ton of money in a name (keyword or descriptive), that company could pay you a huge branding premium. Type-In Hits is not subjective. It's a real number. For example purposes only, let's assume 50 type/in hits day. % Click Through is measurable but dependent on how good your parking program or click through program is. In this case, let's assume a 10% click/through rate. $ Click is measurable and changes depending on the program and the bidders. Let's assume a $1.50 click rate. 3-12 multiple is a number that is analogous to the fundamentals of any company's earnings. You have a lower multiple if there is some sort of time limitation to the traffic or you see a downward trend month to month. You get a higher multiple if you are in a fast growth industry, see traffic ramping up, etc... Many variables go into the multiple. It is measurable. Speculative value of the extension is not measurable but obvious. You know as a domainer, that MOBI has a high speculative value. COM, ORG, NET do not have a high speculative value. Their value is based almost entirely on today's real fundamentals. MOBI doesn't have the level of awareness on the web surfing community, but does have a tremendous positioning statement, purpose and potential future use. A massive % of MOBI valuation is in this bucket for now. Almost NO, ZERO, ZIP speculative valuation falls into the COM, ORG or NET bucket. So, let's do the math on the fictional domain name just based on the fundamentals and not based on branding value or speculative extension value. 50 hits day 10% click through * $1.50 * 8 Years Multiple = $21,900* If you add branding value and speculative value of extension this $21,900 would travel northward. So, this is all from me for today. Sincerely, Jeremy Padawer "Dot Mobi King" :-) (c) Jeremy Padawer 2006 __________________ www.Boing.mobi - search the complete mobile web from .MOBI to .COM! Last edited by jeremyp; 12-10-2006 at 09:06 AM.

12-10-2006, 09:44 AM	#2 (permalink)
danmanmktng NamePros Member Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 160	Holy crap that was long, you going for a book deal? That said, right on. __________________ 400+ Mobis for Sale -- Considering Offers AIM: danmanmktng e-mail: danmanmktng@yahoo.com

12-10-2006, 10:01 AM	#3 (permalink)
Domain Jedi NamePros Regular Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Jedi Temple Posts: 838	Jeremy, I enjoyed your analysis of the recent .mobi sales. Long live the Dot Mobi King! __________________ A Premium *Product Specific* .Com: SprayTanMachine.com

12-10-2006, 10:03 AM	#4 (permalink)
newton Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: Everywhere Posts: 1,433	A truly delightful post and very insightful __________________ The speed of light is faster than sound that's why some people appear bright until they open their mouths

12-10-2006, 12:09 PM	#8 (permalink)
mirrorcube NamePros Regular Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 361	Great analysis on that huge .mobi sale. The mobile internet is an area that is ripe to explode and single keyword names that represent a major consumer product should and will sell higher as more countries especially the United States build the appropriate infrastructure for the industry. Jeremy i am liking the ".mobi king" moniker ala Rick Schwartz. Last edited by mirrorcube; 12-10-2006 at 12:18 PM.

12-10-2006, 11:00 AM	#5 (permalink)
oldtimer NamePros Regular Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: USA Posts: 626	That is great analysis, I just like to point out that for some of the specialized extensions such as .mobi there is also another factor that has influence on the price and that is the suitability of the keyword to the extension itself. In the .mobi case the keywords that represent products, services, and info that are somehow related to mobile use will demand higher prices than those that are just general in nature. IMO

12-10-2006, 11:26 AM	#6 (permalink)
colombani NamePros Regular Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: FRANCE Posts: 538	Hello Jeremy, Of course I'm sorry for you 600.mobi sell is not 22000$. You'd pay the restaurant. Very interesting post. Question 1 : Do you think the PPC system nowaday used for .com, .net... will be the same in the future for .mobi ? Question 2 : Do you think auctions are sometimes increasing prices related to classic sales ? Question 3 : Can I use your domain value method for the domains you want to sell me ?

12-10-2006, 11:54 AM	#7 (permalink)
nametrekker NamePros Regular Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 248	Jeremy, You the man! You're the mobi commodore! best, Steve

12-10-2006, 12:14 PM	#9 (permalink)
danmanmktng NamePros Member Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 160	Jeremy, I thought about it. I buy your analysis. But I think it's more valid for mature extensions than it is for .mobi. The problem in using it for .mobi is that there is zero traffic right now. This means you have to use some sort of expected future traffic as your metric to get a fundamental value -- and that still requires you to guess about the future success of .mobi. ????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=267494 For .mobi I think a simpler valuation technique would be to take a reference extension (.com, .net, .org, .info, or .biz) and use this as your benchmark for .mobi values. So for example, if I know that laptops.biz sold for $50,000, and my guess is that there's a 50% chance .mobi will be 2x as valuable as .biz, 25% chance it will be as valuable as .biz, and 25% chance it will be worth 1/4 of the .biz. Then I would estimate value of the .mobi as .5($100,000)+.25(50,000)+.25(12,500) =~ $65,000. Now, since we actually have a datapoint that laptops sold for $33,000, we can say that the market in fact values .mobi at about 2/3 the .biz. Given enough sales to compare between 2 extensions (easiest benchmark to use would be .com because it has had the most reported sales), it should be possible to come up with a pretty accurate discount factor. So what I'm saying is, if we average the discount on the .com for 100 known .mobi sales, lets say we find that people value the .mobi as being 2% of the .com. And you own sex.mobi, you can be reasonably sure that the value of your .mobi (according to the market) is somewhere around 2% of the .com value. Of course, there will be a premium on certain domains in the .mobi vs. the .com and vice-versa, and that is a subjective factor that you can use to say whether the benchmarking valuation is an underestimate or an overestimate. Now lets say we have data points on several major extensions (.com, .org, .biz, etc.). for 100 different domain names. You can calculate the value of known .mobi sales relative to each of these. From this, you can estimate the value of your .mobi relative to each of the extensions and average of all of them. This should decrease the error that could be associated with one outlier sale. Here is what I propose: as a board, lets come up with the data we need for this analysis. Specifically, I need the sale price of .com, .org. .biz, .info, and .net sales for domains for which we know the .mobi prices. With this data, I volunteer to run the necessary statistical tests and give everyone who contributes a more solid .mobi valuation model to use. We will value .mobis like wall street values companies! Let me know what you all think. Thanks, Dan __________________ 400+ Mobis for Sale -- Considering Offers AIM: danmanmktng e-mail: danmanmktng@yahoo.com

12-10-2006, 01:14 PM	#10 (permalink)
nametrekker NamePros Regular Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 248	good points all around -- let's try to derive some metrics for valuation --- as we probably all concur, mobi has great "potential", but let's try to develop/utilize some concrete variables for valuation methods - key words, traffic, OVT, PPC, development in other extensions (eg, fantasy____.com, versus fantasy____.mobi), Alexa, etc --- I also feel we will be able gauge some better long-term path of Mobi, after the "big brand" companies win the RFPs of the 4 high premiums in February, followed by development - eg, if ESPN/orFox or Yahoo wins the bid for "Sports", a major telecom wins the "ringtones" jewell, etc ---

12-10-2006, 01:15 PM	#11 (permalink)
claudedauman NamePros Regular Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 491	Jeremy - I would like to thank you for your very articulate analysis. It is so helpful and informative. In addition, I would like to thank you for your kind words in reference to BuyLaptops.mobi (I am the current owner). I attempted to use your formula for BuyLaptops.mobi and for LaptopMemory.mobi and I had a few questions: How do you calculate the hits per day? Do you use a percentage of the Overture keyword figure? If yes, do you use only the exact keyword match or do you combine them? For bids, do you average the top three or top five bids or do you use the highest one? Jeremy, I hope that I am not imposing. I would be exceedingly grateful for your input. __________________ Claude - My Blog: Domains90210.com - Follow me at http://twitter.com/Domains90210 -- http://Professor.info is the smart place to buy domain names. See my well priced domain portfolio at http://domains90210.com/?page_id=50

12-10-2006, 01:40 PM	#12 (permalink)
vcool NamePros Regular Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: San Jose,CA Posts: 469	Great Analysis and the formula. I think Laptops.mobi is worth more than $33k. One questions: In you formula you have used hits/day, is this unique visits per day or page views per day? some domain people looks at page views per day. The difference as far as my understanding is, unique visits is number of visitors on your site and page views is how many pages were viewed by those visitors. So, the number of page views will always be more then number of unique visitors. I think page views matter more than unique visits as more page views you have, the more number of times your ad is displayed. ????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=267494 If I use your formula , dir.mobi is woth $175,200 ( 400 unique visits/day) and $1,095,000 ( 2500 page views/day). Of course I am not adding the branding/name factor. Btw, I gave you the title " dot mobi king". Vcool

12-10-2006, 01:52 PM	#13 (permalink)
-db- NamePros Inc. Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Under the bed. Posts: 5,618	Some interesting points by Jeremy. I agree with some of them, and disagree with some of them. I think danmanmktng's brought up realistic alternative angles. And btw, I would expect Laptops.COM to sell for 10X the amount of 600.COM, and I don't really see the .MOBI relevance, or why it should be significant or surprising. __________________ I support Children: Wish.org \| MissingKids.com I support Animals: SPCA.org \| SPCA.com Jeff \| Armstrong \| Grrilla - First 3 inductees into NamePro's Hall-Of-Fame.

12-10-2006, 02:31 PM	#14 (permalink)
oldtimer NamePros Regular Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: USA Posts: 626	KeywordA.com sells for 150K KeywordB.com also sells for 150K But, KeywordA.mobi sells for 25K KeywordB.mobi sells for 2K .com is used as a general extension and almost all keywords are relevant to the extension so if you have a good keyword it will demand a high price in .com, but for special extensions such as .mobi in order to get a high price not only you have to have a good keyword but your keyword must also be suitable to the .mobi extension by being relevant to mobile use. In the case of laptops it seems to be a perfect fit for .mobi as more and more laptops are having wireless internet access and so they are becoming more like mobile devices. Just my opinion

12-11-2006, 08:03 PM	#15 (permalink)
sibarani Account Closed Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 24	As i know, dot COM always be the "starter" for others. A dot COM's name sales also followed by another non-COM sales with different price but also a close price. For example it was happened with Sex.com and Sex.net, Mortgage.com and Mortgage.net, and many others. But that facts cant be the guidelines to predict what will happen in the future. But the great news is dot MOBI is a new platform of a new world, different than other ext. It make sense if the high sales, direct typing domain names in dot COM will do the same in this new platform, new devices,and new technologies--dot MOBI. But we just wait and see.. Good luck for All! :: PublicRelation.mobi :: Bumble.mobi :: Journalist.mobi :: axuw.com ::

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