I think super high premium domain names will devalue, NO DOUBT.
It's called serious competition Sex.com as opposed to Free.sex. This is how so called regulators(ICANN) try to justify their existence by allowing this ludicricy, strange considering they are a non-profit organization.
Across the board values will remain constant for good keyword domains and you will find the LLL, NNN and other hypes and trends will erode over time, once these new extensions are saturated into the marketplace and search engines adjust accordingly.
There is no real worry IMO. The only real problem might come with geo domains since there will probably be city extensions soon and with adult domains there may be a drop due to the new release of .xxx or maybe .sex but I dont think both because they are to similar and ICANN will probably not allow it. Only other useful extensions I see is .web, which would probably lower .net values in the long term but wont affect .com, and .blog which would probably affect .coms with the word blog in them.
This is the most crucial point of the entire discussion...
We're not talking about DOMAINERS.
We're talking about END USERS.
If not for they, we have no purpose except to shuffle domains at wholesale prices back and forth, betting and hanging our entire portfolios and financial future on perpetually incestuous transactions.
End Users are the focus of these changes and how the end users will use these new extensions. And one thing I know about Marketing, is that if an end user is going to pay what amounts to Premium .com prices for their own extension...
1 - There is no use for a .com with massive competition.
2 - They will spend the Millions it takes to drive the new extension of their choice into the public they intend on reaching.
The only hook left for "domainers" to hang their hat on is the hope that the hapless surfing public may type in the .com TYPO instead and glean a few measly pennies from an already dying PPC market, banking on the hope that the internet going public are still as stupid and naive as they have been during the rise of the PPC market space.
But, my friends... they are NOT. They KNOW a PPC page when they see it and they HATE them. Search Engine are bigger and more used than ever and with the likes of MSN Live, they are so integrated into the system now, that you almost cannot direct navigate to a hopeful result.
Hence the playing field for the new ext. is stacked against Cyber Squatters and Domainers because with the new extension...
If you have a Million Dollar Domain sitting there that some big Company just HAS to have to survive....
They can just by their own EXT for a FRACTION of the cost.
Why deal with you?
The thing about real estate that sustains its price and growth is the LACK of it.
ICANN just created an INFINITE amount of real estate.
And that, my friends, pretty much KILLS the value.
I agree! and they should. If someone is asking a $1,000,000 for a domain, it makes a lot of sense to pay $100,000 and get that domain as an extension.
only these "big boys" will be affected and I feel no mercy for them.
for most domainers that are trading domains at reasonable prices, this new hype will not affect them.
This could change things, but .com will always be king.
.com will also always be natural for Internet users to type.
The 100,000 dollar price tag will only allow big companies to buy, unless a group of say 1000 NPers got together, each put in $100 and bought .np .... but then there are the promotion costs.
Who is going to register the new extensions?
.web is one that will definitely get bid up past 100,000, but I just don't see the new extensions changing the habits of Internet users too dramatically....
The mistake you are making is saying it will cost 100,000$. The cost will be a lot higher. Even if there is no one else bidding for the extension the final costs of starting a new extension could be around the 1mil mark as there are many other costs involved such as setting up the infrastructure for the new tld. Also I think the 100k is only an application fee for the tld.
In my opinion if the New TLDs are implemented at larger scale (1000 or more) then all previous extensions are going to be affected including the old .com . As domainers we’ll be affected more by the kind of domains that we own rather than by the extension. In 5 years if there are going to be a lot of new TLDs that are going to compete for traffic with the old extensions then we probably can assume that the domains that are out of the range of that competition won’t be affected as much and will have a better chance to succeed, even those that have to compete directly with the new TLDs might still have a chance if their target audience is limited to a small group or a specific geographical area since it is easier to advertise to a limited number of people and to provide them with a unique service, product, or information that the bigger TLDs might be lacking, but those old domains that have to compete with the new TLDs at the national or global scale will be affected much more and their survival pretty much depends on the loyalty of their existing visitors and the amount and scale of the advertising that they can afford to do in order to get new visitors. (Just what I am guessing)
PS: I just registered these domains just incase the New TLDs become popular:
Several people who know nothing about domains but know that I do have phoned me up since the press caught hold of this one thinking that this is the Next Internet Gold Rush.
Absurd prediction for a 10 year timeframe. Even if this does eventually happen they will still likely call them "taxis" just like we call a tv a "tv", not a "color lcd flat stereo remoted controlled tv", could be time to mail back that phd.
Suppose a person buys "game" and another person buys "football" extension ,then if i were to take "play.game" and "watch.football" would it be possible to get them from the same registrar or i would have to have a separate registrar for each new extension ,can incorporating many new extensions everyday into their website would be easy from a registrars point of view???
Also "game " extension owner might keep play.game for himself or sell it to cover the entire cost of his "game" extension and sell other names with "game" extension to make a handsome profit out of his investment.
If there is a trademark violation with "game" extension, would the extension owner also be held responsible ?? Seems like an average Domainer will be at the losing end and Big Firms at the gaining end.
__________________ Never be surprised at anything in life.
I disagree. Your lack of vision is surprising for someone who claims to have a PHD. I suggest that you do a lot more reading about Google and what they are doing in regards to automatic translation. Here's why. The entire goal of Google translate is to make all internet sites, regardless of language, viewable in the language of the viewer. The only reason people stick within their ccTLD now is because of the language barriers. When Google solves that problem, country codes are no longer going to mean as much. IMO, the future of the Internet is limitless, not parochial. The borders are going to fall, it is just a matter of when.
This, however, doesn't have anything to do with a boycott of new TLDs. I still haven't seen any argument in here that makes the case for a boycott other than, "my money is in COM". Is that the only reason to boycott?
If you own download.com, and download.msn & download.web come online and become successful, does the traffic for download.com go up or down? My guess is up. IMO, the value of the COM goes up with the success of other TLDs. So, why boycott?
