scandiman

Just saved for posterity for the next rag session about a mobi sighting
????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/dot-mobi/488225-lll-mobis-just-tanked.html

I'm shaking over this topic, running for cover

labrocca, I've acknowledged on many an occasion in other threads that mobi aftermarket and auction prices are down. I think there are a variety of reasons, general economy, .asia, little parking revenue, nervous or strapped speculators, etc. As someone who is not very interested in commodity domains like LLL this particular news doesn't rattle my cage but is indicative of a general price drop. I look at lower prices as an opportunity to get better .mobi domains for less. You may feel that mobi prices will continue to slip and never return, that's fine, time will tell. I have my reasons for being optimistic about .mobi and it has nothing to do with yesterdays or todays aftermarket pricing.

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mediaadvantages

How convenient for you biff. You post and then go to bed. Lol. Maybe I don't believe you are going to bed.

thebiffenator

How is the future that you predict a fact? So you are speculating right?

If I had your powers to predict the future of domains, I would of been a millionare.... How do you do it?
I'm currious about your predictions and at the same times please list your .mobi domains that you own, so everyone can see your predictions.



I am sorry for the edit but please list your best names mr/mrs Know it all with the facts???

Double edit: Are you a Millionare? If so how did you become so powerful?

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labrocca

Tell me how it's good news that LLL.mobi's have dropped nearly 40% in a single month. I can easily tell you why it's bad news. This is a domainer site. Domainers are the majority holders of LLL.mobi's.

As for your mentioning of a Disney, CNN, and a Microsoft mobi site...they are really irrelevant to the discussion. Unless any of those 3 are members at this site what they do is really not going to effect domainers. The proof is in the pudding. Many top companies have been using mobi YET we still see a sharp decline in domainer mobi valuations. That doesn't bode well for domain investors with large portfolio's of mobi domains. That's a fact and why it's bad news.

I mentioned earlier in this thread that it's exactly these domains that prove mobi is hurting. Name some keywords, brandables, and new companies using mobi to further themselves. Yes there are a few small timers MOST are actually domainers having a go at development with some success. However the same energy can be applied to a dot com and it would be MORE successful. That's more reality for you. The ROI in mobi is taking a hit.
????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=488225

I see a LOT of bragging here about large company mobi sites. But what about smaller domainer sites...are they making $x,xxx a month? What's the traffic like?

I see the same circle of sites by the same group of individuals.

For development I trust sites like sitepoint far greater than a place like NP. The feedback at places like sitepoint is very poor for mobi. Sitepoint is probably the #1 site for developers and they have wholeheartedly dismissed mobi. This entire year they have had only ONE thread even mention mobi. Isn't that just pathetic.

Yes I am aware of the popular mobi fan forum many of you are a part of. Again...that's a small group that has created a circle of wagons in the hopes of staying alive oh so much longer. That site is indicative of why mobi is doing so poorly. Widespread penetration is not going to occur. Domainers will not be profiting with a hold strategy.

What it boils down to is that this site is really a domainers site. News should revolve around how domainers are effected. The information I posted today reflects pricing of recent sales often times between domainers. Instead of being a mobi fanatic for once...think from a domainer investor perspective. Mobi is a bad investment.

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Idees

Of course I'm speculating.
Here is a nice fact for you to ponder over:

????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=488225
BIZ -> 1,867 (1,978,829) -> dropped about 0,1%

COM -> 693,949 (77,142,148)-> dropped about 0,9%

INFO -> 10,324 (5,007,607)-> dropped about 0,2%

MOBI -> 13,466 (924,989)-> dropped about 1,5%

Source: http://www.namepros.com/2883513-post682.html

So dot mobey dropped 1.5%, while .info domains dropped .2%, and this is keeping in mind that people taste-drop .info domains.

Nobody in there right mind would taste .mobey's.

MaguirePhD

It took me an entire 2 minutes to put this together, so this is the 2nd thread I've posted it in.

Of course it did. It was just a matter of the nurse wheeling you over to the dresser by your bed and taking a digital picture of the bottle.

Superimpose a few words and you got it up...on the Intenet that is!

Doc

Idees

thebiffenator

What source is this from other then Bricio's link here?

Im up for another 20 min

Sory for edit: But why did you leave out .org and .net???

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Idees

Ask him, I told you what my source was and I trust his statistics.

thebiffenator

????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=488225
so.net and .org finished more for drops (I just edited my post) because I saw that you forgot to mention .net and .org

Lets reevaluate

http://www.namepros.com/2883513-post682.html

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Idees

People taste .net's and .org's, and this gives it a higher percentage.

.mobey doesn't have an excuse, barely anyone tastes them.

labrocca

Please try to stay on-topic. Drops aren't related and they are a VERY hard marker for valuation because you can't tell what's being tasted. As Idees says though...it's not hard to understand why CNO have large drop percentages because of tasting.

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thebiffenator

you are 100% right my friend, maybe one day they will have mobile phones that you can lick and get flavor, maybe even can make ringtones that can fart and smell

I will be one of the first though to have Johny Fart Tones! Johny will release sounds and fart power in the future...But its a speculation

PS .mobi don't need an excuse, its a solution and a leader

5 min left till bedtime

SOrry for edit again: But everyone talks out of their ass, I just wanted to be blunt about it....and monetize on the capability of this new mobile world.
????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=488225

Night all

Peace

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snoop

Very true. I think it is worth keeping in mind also that the claimed minimum price for both lll.mobi and lll.com are both overstated on that site, 3 letter .org also (high $200's seems to be the minimum), and I suspect 3 letter .net also.

No it isn't just about lll names, but this is a good proxy for the rest of the .mobi market in my view, in terms of being the only area that is trading like a commodity and thus very easy to track. People love these kind of stats when price are rising (because the gains are clear) and hate them when prices are falling (because the losses are clear).

DomainTalker

labrocca...snoop...GF...et al...


Yes .mobi prices have dropped lately....and more steeply than, say, .com, in general.....And, yes, usage of .mobi among the big corporates is not gigantic, at the moment (tho steadily growing)...
????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=488225


...What I find incredible, is that the conclusion many domainers come to from this, is that .mobi is therefore 'dead'...


But, please address some points I've made several times in various threads on this topic - but none has ever honestly answered...:


(i) Did .com prices, in general, drop like a stone post-2000, or not?...And, did that signal that .com was 'dead', forever?

Yes, or no?


(ii) Were average LLL.com prices at, say, $xxx during , say, 2001-2003, or not?....And, did they then rise to $x,xxx - $xx,xxx by 2006-2008?

And, are now declining again?

Yes, or no?


(iii) How many YEARS - from the start of the new thing called an 'internet' (say, early 1991, or so) - did it take for good .com generic domains to rise in value from reg prices to, say, $xx,xxx, and beyond?


2 years?....5 years?...8 years....?


My point is that new things take time to establish a pedigree....In this case the whole habit of the mobile web + learning the new access mechanisms to it.


If your goal is a 'domainer's' profit today - NOW....then, yes, .mobi would be a poor investment for you.


But, if you are realistic about the growth patterns of new systems (ie the mobile web), then its perfectly to be expected that prices will go up and down - over time - as the market creates itself - and economies go through cycles...Just like .com......And, .mobi has every chance of being a good investment, over time.


So....If .com was not 'dead' in its first few years, as the internet got established....And, .com was not 'dead' after prices crashed in the 'tech wreck' during, and after, 2000....

...then, why is .mobi 'dead' after only 2 years, in a new internet mobile space that is only being created as we speak???


Why the double standard, in assessment here?

.

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Zona

I don't think there is a double standard and you can not compare .com to .mobi.

The value of .mobi is based solely on a specific platform and it appears that the platform may already be outdated after 2 years. That doesn't mean I dislike .mobi it just means that as fast as technolgy moves, there might not be a need for the .mobi extension.
????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=488225

IMHO.

thebiffenator

why.mobi

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DomainTalker

I'm not comparing .mobi to .com, per se - I'm comparing the acceptance/establishment timeframes & process for new systems.

There's a double-standard on that, in declaring .mobi 'dead', now.

The value of .mobi won't be in a purely tech platform, in time....It'll be in whether it makes sense to enter simply '.mobi' - or, m.whatever.com, or, load slow or fast, or scroll around forever on a small screen.
????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=488225

Convenience, and fast results, will determine this, I feel.

.

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snoop

Prices fell about 90% I think, the difference between .com then and .mobi now is that .com was by that stage established as the main extension on the internet, the domain market followed the entire internet into decline. .mobi is something has not caught on, it saw a huge rise on the basis of speculation and now prices have slumped.

Some things come back after a bust, others don't. The things that do come back are the ones that have sound fundamentals. For the .com market it was revenue from type in traffic and to a lesser extent enduser sales that lead the market back up.

In the 18 months since .mobi was released most companies have gone with alternates, even those who founded this extension. When companies don't even support their own format then something is wrong. I'm sure in 10 years there will be still some people buying old HD DVD disc's, just like some people still think the Amiga is the best computer ever, don't be one of those people, study the trend and go with it.


Yes they are now declining again.

About 10 years plus (started well before 1991), but today the Internet is established. .com became valuable as the Internet became popular, it had the luxury of being able to grow with minimal speculation. Real usage. .mobi today is completely different to .com in the early days. Extensions sink or swim quickly, this isn't 1994 all over again.

labrocca

Using the success of dot com as a gauge to how mobi is going to grow is heavily flawed. I can just as easily use a failed example such as WebTV which seemingly was so huge that MS paid billions for it. Yet it just fell like a rock and NEVER recovered. Youtube was a HUGE success...yet Google Video is not. Repeating success is always incredibly hard. It's unlikely any TLD will repeat the success of dot com. It has too far of a head start.

To compare dot com to dot mobi is something many mobi enthusiasts have attempted to do. They believe a "mobile internet" is coming. While that might be true there is no evidence it will be lead by mobi. The extension leader is dot com by far. There is no reason to herald the mobey for mobile when dot com is just as easily used.

From a developer standpoint mobi is fine but in the context of domainers that often buy for resale value. Yes...it just died. It's been coming for a long time imho. The posts in the marketplace here are a great example.
????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=488225

There will ALWAYS be some value to anything with some fanatics attached. Overall though... mobi has become just another TLD that doesn't rise to the level of CNO.

Does anyone want to guess what 3character.com will show on August 1st? My bet...another $10 drop.

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whitebark

why.mobi - the only extension that needs not only a cheer squad, but a website to explain its need...

In the business world - the best products sell themselves. As soon as you have to start trying to convince people your product is worthy of their attention you have problems. Add in declining values, loss of interest from former supporters, a flat-line of development, declining registration levels, new mobile browser technology - and all that while mobile device use skyrockets. The sign posts are all there.

Oh - and two years on they STILL don't get traffic. Should we wait another two or three years?

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DomainTalker

Yes, that's true. There has been a speculative bubble in .mobi.
????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=488225

I agree. The things that recover have an underlying logic & meet need of a market.
????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=488225

The .com experience was underpinned, as you say, by parking revenue etc...But, I think mobile will be a quite different business model.

I believe the mobile market place will have significantly different needs & drivers to the PC internet experience - and the .com extension that serves it.

The key being fast, easy to access, cheap, downloadable info, on a small screen - no fiddling about, no delay, no scrolling about, no fuss....That's the edge.

.mobi offers that edge....in a way no large PC site can offer on a small screen - and the detection technology for converting large .com sites to mobile size is trying to squeeze a size 16 into a size 10....Only ever a struggle, and ultimately futile.


.mobi will come back because it works....and, when mobile usage grows to critical mass. So, the business model will be developed sites - not passive parking, like .com.


From a domainer's perspective, that may well mean most profit will come from revenue from those developed .mobi sites, when the market matures - and, from trade to end users - not passive parked pages (or, at least not until the .mobi market matures).

That doesn't mean .mobi is 'dead' - it means a different business model, for the forseeable future - and different expectations of .mobi, for quite awhile to come.


I agree, from a .mobi investor's point of view, this is disappointing at the moment.

But, its a timing thing.

If you were Google, or Microsoft, you may well wait until .mobi had achieved critical mass - ie millions of users - before promoting your .mobi, because you won't get a sufficient return on your promotion bucks, in the short term...In the meantime - whilst mobile consumer usage is relatively small, you may well go with a 'work-around', until that growth catches up...

I see this differently...

An analogy. Yes, people have speculated in a new extension (.mobi), for the mobile web - just as people speculated in the new railroads in the 19th century, and in airlines, in the 20th century.....Neither replaced the horse (.com), or killed the emerging motor car - but, both found massive new niches for transport (.mobi).


In the same way (for the reasons stated above) there's simply no reason why .mobi can't be the new 'airline', or 'railroad' in the transport analogy.....And, speculations along the way in the extension have nothing to do with its ultimate success/failure....Underlying need & appropriate delivery will determine it.


When the railroad speculative 'bust' of the 1890's occurred, it no more signaled that railroad transport was 'dead' - nor did it confirm that the horse would be the only popular mode of transport - any more than the current market decline in LLL.mobi says that .mobi is 'dead', imo.


The mobile web's a done deal....and, I think .mobi - in time - will prove to be the easiest, best-result, experience for the user...its the ONLY one that's not a 'work-around' for mobile.....I think that's significant...It just needs awareness & marketing.


...and LLL.mobi will recover - for the same reasons LLL.com recovered after 2000 (ie it wasn't parking revenue that drove prices for LLL.com - it was scarcity - and the possibility of end user sales)...

.

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snoop

To me that doesn't make much sense when the people we are talking about are the ones who actually brought the extension to market. How is it going to reach critical mass when no companies on importance on the internet use it, they all use the "competition", which is subdomains of existing domains.
????: NamePros.com http://www.namepros.com/showthread.php?t=488225



Don't tie yourself up in analogies, you can use an anology to try and prove anything to yourself. Actually I do this myself so perhaps I shouldn't comment on it Remember though this isn't a quantum leap forward in technology, it is 4 new letters. 6ft guage railway track versus 4ft gauge, some say 6ft gauge is better but the country is covered in 4ft.

In my mind they do have a fair amount to do with it, in terms of buying up the vast majority of names and turning them in to park pages (not that I'm down on park pages but the whole doesn't work unless lots of others have developed). All the tlds that have done well (.com and major/popular country codes) are ones that were able to get popular before large amounts of speculation.

Actually it was parking revenue, the lll.com's were being bought with PPC checks. PPC money fuelled the entire industry, even the stuff with no or very little traffic, PPC parking revenue was and still is the main source of external revenue. I would say enduser sales and new entrants coming with fresh money are the other big external souces of cash, though not the size PPC revenues.

DomainTalker

snoop...

I'm enjoying this discussion - because this is the first rational exchange of (differing) views on .mobi I've seen for a long time...

Appreciate it...

.

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snoop

Cheers!