dpari said:
With the American economy on the verge of collapse, if you have some extra $$ it might be a strong play to pick up some premiums and hold for the long term.
On the other hand, it may be best to keep your $$ in a safe at home too.
Whats your opinion?
Just thought I would remind people what this thread was all about. Thanks to the gentleman called Snoop we've been led down the path of off-thread territory once again.
As Smash so rightly points out. Perhaps this gentleman would be kind enough to put his (other place) moderator head on before doing the same again.
As for the US economy, it's up SH£T Creek without a paddle...
...just as it was in 2000 (dot-com bubble), 1991 (loss of production to overseas comps), 1981 (increase in fuel prices as aftermath of Iran revolution), 1973 (OPEC fuel price increase and final costs of Vietnam War), 1952 (little recession to allay inflationary pressures created during Korean War), 1929 (the Great Depression), 1918 (post World War One drop in production at same time as labour market increased with returning soldiers) - and on and on, all the way back to the so-called Panic of 1797, when the fledgling United States had massive real estate price problems and merchants and bankers were unwilling to lend each other money.
Does this all sound VERY familiar?
The US (and the Western World in general) is always travelling between two places - the one we find ourselves in now (up SH£T Creek without a paddle) and the other (you've never had it so good). It is a matter of simple economics - and it will never change.
The main question should really be how long will it last - and will it affect our sector of the economy (.TV and internet TV related websites).
Sadly, the answer is that the recession may not be over as quickly as we'd all hoped. There is still a lot of cleaning to be done before the toxic waste that created the 'credit crunch' in the first place (and it's follow-on mini-crunches) will finally be removed.
Estimates range from the optimists claim of Spring 2009 to the pessimists 2013 at the earliest.
BUT one thing is certain - it will be removed and the route to 'you've never had it so good' will begin all over again.
The next phase, however, is easy to see. All you have to do is have a look around. Are people beginning to lose jobs? Are people less confident? Are local shops being built or closing down? Are people have more or less holidays? And most importantly to this thread... Are prices going down? and Are people beginning to 'offload' things?
If you see any of these - it's not a 'collapse' of an economy, its a natural readjustment, just as winter is needed to create spring and summer.
The fundamentals for the strength of the US really are still in place. I won't list any of them, except one... Where is the smartest person in any country in the world most likely to want to go to 'be the best' in any of the 'future' industries like computing, medicine, aeronautics, etc? Is it to any of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) that the naysayers and moaners and knockers say are going to take over the US - or is it the USA itself, the place with the greatest economy in the world?
As for the momentary effects for our industry. Yes, there will be people who will, for reasons most likely outside of the .TV sphere, have to sell up their portfolios. Indeed, we have seen it already.
There will also be those who will, like myself, look at the inventory they have and prioritise. What to develop, what to keep, and what to pass on to others to make good with.
One thing we haven't seen is a lowering of prices. The fact (and anecdotal evidence) is that TV names seem to be only on the increase. And that's not even mentioning the upping of premiums (something that supports the strength of the market and has NOTHING to do with selling ENOM).
So, if prices are not lowering, but the market is being flooded with names that have been let go for other reasons, then there are most certainly opportunities to be had. And anyone wanting to increase their quality name presence (like me), or just get a toe-hold in the market has a perfect window of time to do so.
This final point is very private to my life, but stresses the new realities we are faced with in the West. Contrary to what many believe I only began buying up .TV names in large numbers in MAY of this year. Yes, I have probably one of the largest TV.com collections, but my .TV names only really got going less than three months ago. But already I have good news.
In the 'real' world I am in the process of selling the house my father lived in before he died a few weeks ago. To make the sale quick, I decided to sell at January 2009 prices, so I dropped the price by 15% from what people think it is worth today ('worth' does not sell in a down market, discounts do). I've now got a sale, but it took effort.
In the .TV world I have seen my fledgling portfolio take in offers over 300% higher than it cost to create.
A simple savings account would pay only 5% or so.
So, to be brief...
US economy = far from collapse, tough going but necessary readjustment
Individuals economy = hit hard, prices on the up, self-assessment needed
Local economy = loss of jobs, house prices down, cash-strapped.
.TV economy = more names coming to market, prices upward, premiums upward, percentage returns up.
Enjoy this mini-world. As I was told by my economics teacher many years ago - in the 1930s depression many people, for the first time in their lives, lived like kings, because they were in the right place at the right time. And that is where I firmly believe we are. Not based on hope, but real facts.
