You are exactly right Hulls....
Joe public (the sheep) will not become interested unless the companies that are familiar to them begin using the extension. Turner Broadcasting just purchased iReport.com for $750K. This is a good indicator that they plan on sticking with .com for the long haul.
Most major companies are not going to invest in an extension that has an unknown future. Sam Walton would not put a store in a building unless he was able to negotiate a lifetime lease. With .TV, you're limited to maximum of 7-years of uncertainty.
When the Verisign contract comes up for renewal in 2015, all bets are off.